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January 2015 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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With 2015 fast approaching, I'm sure many of us are anticipating the expected pattern change from the mild and snow less December that we have just endured.  Will January finally bring us more cold and snowy weather???  Looks like Mother Nature is setting the stage to a very cold start and a snowy one.

 

All the major models are showing a significant punch of arctic air sometime after the 5th.  Shades of Jan 1985???  Whoever has a snow cover down by then I would not be surprised to see temps plunge down to -20F if all works out.

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I know this is just guidance but my gosh, I hope we can get a storm or two to shift south. SE Nebraska looks to be left high and dry according to gfs

There will be shifts with the snow shield.  Just like when I posted a GFS snowfall about a week ago showing the Dakotas with appreciable snow.  NE ended up having a storm roll on through and more snow coming on Mon/Tue.  The cold will push and I expect it to fill in farther south.

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The pattern I see unfolding over the first 10-15 days of January are about as snowy one can ask for.  It seems the Plains/Midwest/Lakes are in line to see a system every 3-4 days.  Very active pattern and with plenty cold available, we will make up any snowfall deficits this month.

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It definitely looks like the first 5 or 6 days of the new month/year will start out pretty active. After winter taking a vacation for almost a month, it will be a welcome change. I know with Arctic air masses - you get more sunshine with them at least! haha.

 

I wonder if this winter will be something like 98-99, when winter was largely absent until the big Blizzard...? Not saying the region is in for a Blizzard, but it looks like a healthy snowstorm for a lot of us during the first 4 days of the month.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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00z Euro starting to see a streaking light/moderate snow event from the Plains/Midwest/Lower Lakes.  This would be a very high snow ratio event if it materializes.  It would fit the overall pattern when you have pieces of energy riding the arctic boundary cross country.

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that west-east light snow event will definitely have high ratios with temps that cold. that will be a fluffy snow.

12z GFS looking pretty impressive for the 4th-6th event from the Plains/Lakes...very high snow ratios with this, especially when the 528 thickness line is way south.  I've learned that snow ratios are usually 20:1 or better when your located below the 528 thickness line.

 

Parts of NE may even have over a Foot of snow on the ground during the 1st week of January.  Impressive start to January should this transpire.

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Holy Cow!  12z GFS showing the mother load of arctic air pouring into the central CONUS.  -30F showing up near the Dakotas and high temps -10's subzero for parts of IA/IL/WI.  Insane cold showing up.

 

I was worried about this dangerous cold showing up during this cycle of the LRC back in November.

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 Winter looks to slap us in the face beginning next weekend. Curious to see what Par GFS, CMC and Euro 12z runs are showing.

The cold is coming, the question is when and where is the snow going to be? And is it going to be more than a couple of inches? The models and forecasts were laying down a bunch of snow before the end of the year and that really hasn't turned out for most of us, so we'll see how January plays out! I'm already dreading the cold. That cold coming the week of the 5th looks especially brutal and long lasting

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After looking back at the LRC in November, the Nov 23/24th system may in fact be the Jan 5th storm showing up.  This storm has a lot more energy with it and could very well be the significant storm that hit the region back then.  The Jan 3rd/4th storm may just be a wave that got involved into the overall weather pattern.  Gary Lezak talked about this today in his bog.  You see, the LRC really doesn't get set until Cycle 2 and beyond.  From Oct-Nov, the LRC is just really starting to develop.  Cycle 2, 3, 4...etc will look different but the same (if that makes sense) as the jet stream intensifies going through winter.  So the Jan 3rd system may in fact just be a "bonus" type system that we didn't see back in November.

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All these maps we post of potential future snowfall ( I am guilty as well ) doesn't help. Just doesn't seem to be in the cards this year for even normal snowfall. I understand the models may not be able to handle all the differing solutions-- but this is not the first tough winter for models. I do think the MJO is playing more havoc on us this winter and the major teleconnections are just not lining up at the same time for good snows-- or even one.   I'am not going to even get mildly excited for potential systems until they show run to run continuity within 72 hours.  Most depressing winter I can remember since Jan 2006.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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It will be interesting to see if the GFS is right on the cold coming over the next 5-10 days.  If I remember correctly, the Euro was way off back in October, however, both the GFS/EURO did fairly well in November/December.  I think the GFS is going to get this right and the Euro is off its rocker.

 

Just read Joe D'Aleo's post on Wx Bell and he wrote a nice write-up comparing this start to winter to 1911-12.  That winter started off cold in November, let off the gas peddle the entire month of December (which happened this year) and both Jan/Feb were brutal.  I looked back and that winter ORD only had 24" or so of snowfall, but that winter had a stronger El Nino.  Let's see how this all unfolds but I think this year the models are over playing the MJO which is throwing a wrench into the modeling.  This winter we just have to many variables working in tandem that make forecasting all that unpredictable.

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It will be interesting to see if the GFS is right on the cold coming over the next 5-10 days.  If I remember correctly, the Euro was way off back in October, however, both the GFS/EURO did fairly well in November/December.  I think the GFS is going to get this right and the Euro is off its rocker.

 

Just read Joe D'Aleo's post on Wx Bell and he wrote a nice write-up comparing this start to winter to 1911-12.  That winter started off cold in November, let off the gas peddle the entire month of December (which happened this year) and both Jan/Feb were brutal.  I looked back and that winter ORD only had 24" or so of snowfall, but that winter had a stronger El Nino.  Let's see how this all unfolds but I think this year the models are over playing the MJO which is throwing a wrench into the modeling.  This winter we just have to many variables working in tandem that make forecasting all that unpredictable.

-1912 in DSM had the coldest ever JAN on record with an avg temp of 6.1F. It also had the coldest ever max temp for any month in DSM at -14F and the coldest mean temp of -21F-- both on Jan 12th 1912.  That some serious company to be comparing things too. Just stating some facts..-- without a snowpack-- its very difficult to get below 0F here,

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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-1912 in DSM had the coldest ever JAN on record with an avg temp of 6.1F. It also had the coldest ever max temp for any month in DSM at -14F and the coldest mean temp of -21F-- both on Jan 12th 1912.  That some serious company to be comparing things too. Just stating some facts..-- without a snowpack-- its very difficult to get below 0F here,

I agree that its difficult to get that cold without a snow pack.  Some of the earlier runs of the GFS/EURO did show some ridiculously cold temperatures that resembled what happened in 1912.  Still some time to see if and where the snow falls and if temps really get that cold as the models showed earlier.

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When you take a look at the 12z Euro's 30mb strat run you begin to question why the model is not showing as much cold in the central CONUS Day 5-10.  Just look at the warming that begins to happen from today, to Day 5, to Day 10.  Notice the majority of the warming is near Alaska and the arctic.  With that type of warming happening in the upper latitudes it suggests more cold to punch down south into the central CONUS.  I think we will see the model slowly correct itself over the coming days, similar to the GFS/PGFS/GGEM.

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