January 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tony]

At least the extended looks to be cold and somewhat active so lets see what happens.

[Tom]

As the new Euro weeklies are coming in, the month of January looks very cold and stormy in the central conus/lakes.  Euro Control seeing see barbaric cold shots, too many to count.  Heading out now to catch the Hawks game at West End on Madison St.  Adios!

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_full.gifthis is one of the reasons on why we are not colder the mjo is in phase4 and that is one of the warm phases.

[tim the weatherman]

and another thing that the lack of the ssw that is causing us to be warmer too.

[tim the weatherman]

Early January
The early part of the month is likely to favor a cold Central and East US, as a lobe of the polar vortex ventures dangerously close to the United States. This time period is likely to feature multiple winter storm threats, which may affect the East US as well as the Central US. More examination of ridging in the Southeast will be needed, as far as knowing where the individual storms may track.

Middle January
The middle part of the month is likely to feature a warmer than normal East US, but long range model guidance is indicating this warmth may eventually push westward to encompass the Great Lakes and much of the Midwest. Time will tell on how this outlook unfolds, but a warm East and Central US may be a good bet, as the aforementioned MJO wave moves into phases unfavorable for warmth in those areas.

Late January
The closing part of the month is likely to feature a return to some cooler conditions, primarily in the eastern third of the country as a new MJO wave forms in phases favorable for a chill in the East. However, the final days of January and opening days of February could see warmth return to the East, if this new MJO wave moves quickly to La Nina phases.

[tim the weatherman]

to me i take it back about a repeat for this winter and by the way the snowman has said above in his blog that from the central to eastren us winter is in jepordy.

[tim the weatherman]

http://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2014122912/08808W4158N.png

[East Dubzz]

Tom did you go to the Hawks game tonight or was imaginig that?

[tim the weatherman]

the snowman has said that feburary will be cold and march questionable because the backload of the el nino.

[Tom]

Tom did you go to the Hawks game tonight or was imaginig that?

Fantastic comeback victory!  I went to this bar down the street from the UC called "West End".  It's the official Hawks bar.  The atmosphere was awesome.  This team never gives up that's for sure and they are 5-1 in shootouts so far this year.  The only time they were good in extra time was when they won the Cup in 2010.  These extra points will certainly help down the road.

[Tom]

The GFS model over the past couple days has been consistently showing the Polar Vortex sheared off the Pole and aiming itself into North America through mid month.  After looking at back to back Euro Weekly runs showing a very cold and active central CONUS, this forum should have many systems to track this month and its already shaping up like we will have 2 big systems to monitor (Jan 3rd & Jan 9-12).  In the recent Euro Weekly run, both the Euro Ensemble/Control see another monster cutter for the later Jan 9-12th storm system.  Exciting times ahead.

[clintbeed1993]

The GFS model over the past couple days has been consistently showing the Polar Vortex sheared off the Pole and aiming itself into North America through mid month.  After looking at back to back Euro Weekly runs showing a very cold and active central CONUS, this forum should have many systems to track this month and its already shaping up like we will have 2 big systems to monitor (Jan 3rd & Jan 9-12).  In the recent Euro Weekly run, both the Euro Ensemble/Control see another monster cutter for the later Jan 9-12th storm system.  Exciting times ahead.

 

How about Colorado Low bowling ball type storm?  That's what we really need.  We need a spread the wealth type storm, and a cutter certainly isn't that.

[Scott26]

Fantastic comeback victory!  I went to this bar down the street from the UC called "West End".  It's the official Hawks bar.  The atmosphere was awesome.  This team never gives up that's for sure and they are 5-1 in shootouts so far this year.  The only time they were good in extra time was when they won the Cup in 2010.  These extra points will certainly help down the road.

Another happy night when both the Hawks and Bulls win!

[East Dubzz]

Fantastic comeback victory! I went to this bar down the street from the UC called "West End". It's the official Hawks bar. The atmosphere was awesome. This team never gives up that's for sure and they are 5-1 in shootouts so far this year. The only time they were good in extra time was when they won the Cup in 2010. These extra points will certainly help down the road.

That is so true considering how good the division is this year. I didn't get to watch until OT, but followed it on Twitter. Wow, what a comeback!

[Tom]

How about Colorado Low bowling ball type storm?  That's what we really need.  We need a spread the wealth type storm, and a cutter certainly isn't that.

The 2 main storms that are forthcoming will be forming out of the SW and heading up in the Lakes.  However, that is not to say we will have waves of energy mixed into the pattern that come down out of the northern Rockies and cross the Plains through the central CONUS.  

 

I'll have to see how the Jan 9-12 system evolves but from what I'm seeing now is a system forming in the southern Plains and shooting up into the Lakes.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro has mid 40's sfc temp and low 50's 850 temps by day 10 in IA----

[Grizzcoat]

currently 30.78 in Hg or 1044.4 MB at KDSM. temp only +4. Can you say out loud "no snow pack"??? Been here 16 years and I have seen it get below zero officially at the arpt one time with no snow on the ground.  Throw 6-8" of snow on the ground and the temp is easily -6 to -10F if not colder.

[NEJeremy]

How about Colorado Low bowling ball type storm?  That's what we really need.  We need a spread the wealth type storm, and a cutter certainly isn't that.

The Colorado Lows seem to have disappeared for the last several years and nothing going forward is saying anything different. We'll need to make the most out of a couple of inches here and there and then the brutal arctic cold. I'm already ready for spring, especially when I look at negative number on my thermometer.

[Tom]

12z PGFS showing some insane temps...

[Tom]

CFSv2 seeing a very cold month of January...

[Tom]

I've noticed over the past few days, more runs often than not, trying to build a glacier by mid month across the central CONUS.  The model is definitely seeing the brutal cold and an active storm track over the next couple week.s

[educatorjen]

What happened to the storm that was showing for the 4th-6th?  Gone? 

[Tom]

What happened to the storm that was showing for the 4th-6th?  Gone? 

There wasn't really a system showing up during that time frame.  The GFS was showing a wave of energy but not really a storm system until it was farther east.  The Euro/GFS are still trying to paint a light snow event somewhere from the Plains/Lakes after the Jan 3rd system.

 

Meantime, 12z Euro in range now and showing the Jan 9-12th system starting to carve out a western trough and forming a system in the Rockies on the 9th like the GFS has been showing.

[NEJeremy]

For a while there was just a storm showing up for the 3-4th and that was going to clip eastern Nebraska. Then for a few runs that storm went south and was weaker, but a second new storm showed up that was stronger and further north around the 5-6th and could have been a good hit for a lot of us in Nebraska and Iowa, etc. There was talk that the second storm was the actual storm that was part of the LRC and the first storm was just a "bonus" storm. Now the second storm is way north, looks to be more of just a clipper and we're back to the first storm moving out of the southwest US that will miss us in Nebraska as it heads to the Great Lakes. At least that's my recollection of what has happened the last several days

[Tom]

Nice streaking robust wave showing up again on the 6th from the northern Plains into the Lower Lakes...total snowfall through the 6th

[Tom]

CPC's maps on increased probability of above normal precip in the 6-10 range lining up rather nicely...it's also more than likely seeing the second big system sometime in the Jan 9-12 period as well.

[Tom]

GFS has been doing a much better job handling the Hemispheric Pattern Change in its modeling over the past 4-6 days.  The Euro has been all over the place and from reading the La Crosse AFD, they to see that the 12z Euro is getting colder in the longer range...something the GFS has been showing consistently.  However, the Euro has done a better job handling a potential storm track in the 4-5 day range.  I think tonight's 00z run will show a larger swath of snow in the cold sector.  Could even see an earlier phase if the last 2 runs are any indication of a signal to look out for.

[winterfreak]

Close but no cigar. Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri left hung to dry verbatim. Still waiting for the active pattern to start in the central plains. Mother nature will do what she well pleases though and that's quite alright.

[Tom]

Can't wait to get some snow on all the Christmas lights around town!  Just want to fast forward towards our next snow storm.  January on the verge to deliver for our region.

[jaster220]

Can't wait to get some snow on all the Christmas lights around town!  Just want to fast forward towards our next snow storm.  January on the verge to deliver for our region.

 

Mine are ready and waiting over here in SMI. Had a few flurries off the lake today and it reminded me winter is finally returning.

[Tom]

That inverted trough showing up on the 6th still showing some impressive snowfall...total snow from the 2 systems....

[winterfreak]

That GFS id so sad to look at lol. My fanily has a place in Traverse City. Maybe I should head up there for a few weeks.

[james1976]

That inverted trough showing up on the 6th still showing some impressive snowfall...total snow from the 2 systems....

I am liking that the GFS has brought that 2nd system back. It was gone for a few runs.

[Tom]

That GFS id so sad to look at lol. My fanily has a place in Traverse City. Maybe I should head up there for a few weeks.

If I lived where you are and could take a few weeks off, I'd go there in a heart beat.  I suspect they will be buried with feet of snow from lake effect over the next 3 weeks.  Lake Michigan and Lake Superior water temps are above normal and ice free.  Once this bitter cold hits and winds turn out of the NNW, you will see some hefty LES.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

That inverted trough showing up on the 6th still showing some impressive snowfall...total snow from the 2 systems....

 

That would be a dream start to January, would more than double our total season snowfall with two quick systems.

[Tom]

That would be a dream start to January, would more than double our total season snowfall with two quick systems.

The second would bring that nice fluffy "powda" (Boston accent) and with the winds it would blow around nicely.  Maybe even some brief backside LES for SE WI/NE IL.  00z GGEM also showing this second system.

[Tom]

Look how the Euro has corrected the body of cold air in North America farther west over the last 3 days for 00z Jan 6th.  The model has been having a tendency to move the cold air out way to fast.  I'll post the last 3 00z runs in 24 increments.  We should pay attention to this model behavior as we move forward because over the last couple days it wants to bring some very warm 850's into the Plains Day 8-10.  Let's see how it turns out today in the extended.

[Tom]

00z Euro says...what 2nd wave???  No show...

 

Case Point...now look at tonight's run 00z Jan 7th comparing it to last night's 00z run for the same period...huge difference

 

GFS/PGFS are going to get this right and the Euro has been playing catch up big time with the overall pattern.  So King Euro is not always King I guess....

[Tom]

So far for the Jan 4th-8th period, GFS won with the cold and also the Jan 3rd storm.  Euro had it out to sea for several days.  As for the arctic attack coming, it had ridging building in the past couple days.  Now, in the 7-10 day range I am seeing the GGEM/EURO trying to bring in some ridging back into the Plains and the central CONUS.

 

00z EURO showing a sky high AO/NAO in the day 7-10 range.

 

GFS not really agreeing with both of them in the extended.  Let's see if the GFS wins this battle again.

[Grizzcoat]

06Z continues the Nanook of the North like pattern.  day 8 through day 16  8 day avg anomaly-