Jump to content

January 2015 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

Oh I agree, we still have several inches of snow on the ground in my neighborhood, though it's typical for us to be the last to lose the snow, as I live in a high elevation (relatively speaking), tree lined neighborhood.

Surprised to hear you have that much on the ground near MKE...lets see if we all can add to our snow totals and get close to average snowfall for January.  Maybe even a bit above average if all works out just right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS latching on to the  EURo's ideas for hours 180 to early 200's--- many on here would get decent accumulations if correct.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS latching on to the  EURo's ideas for hours 180 to early 200's--- many on here would get decent accumulations if correct.

I like how the cold doesn't penetrate to far south and keeps a relatively good storm track through the Central CONUS.  It's interesting to see these systems develop near the Baroclinic zone that separate the arctic air to the north and mild air to the south.  GFS longer range has not budged on an active set up over the next 2 weeks and significant supply of cold air.  Who knows, maybe February/March will be the best months in terms of cold and sustained cold.  Another back loaded Winter in terms of snowfall???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS/GFS Ensembles showing nice blocking setting up as we roll on into February.  Would be the perfect time to see this develop as the jet stream reaches its peak intensity and huge contrasts in temps across the country form.  Let's see if we can spin up some majors over the next 4 weeks...maybe even have it continue into March.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS and Euro are still showing a very cold arctic blast by next weekend.  The Euro appears to show a couple clipper type lows passing through Iowa on days 8 and 10, but I don't have access to the precip maps that far out.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gary Lezak didn't believe the arctic air would come by next weekend, in fact, he thought it would be another 2 weeks.  I think this has a lot to do with the blocking that is beginning to show up in the modeling and the low Geomagnetic Index (notice the blue line at the bottom of the chart below)

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

 

If this blocking can lock in (like the SST analogs suggest), this could certainly turn into a long lasting winter season well into the Spring months. I've been looking at the CFSv2, and for the past 1 week straight it has a cold eastern CONUS indicative of blocking near Greenland.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

eventually your cold snowy call has to come to fruition. i would think

Eventually nature has to unload...its not like this has been a torch winter...it has had its warm and cold phases.  If you look at past winter seasons that have had similar Nov-Jan period, signals point to a rather interesting Feb/Mar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just saw the 12z EURO Ensemble Mean and boy does it look brutally, brutally cold for an ensemble run for next weekend. I think the north pole just got shunted south into the US.

Both GFS/EURO are unloading the arctic hammer for the first week of February.  Def looks ominous.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the cold is overdone in my opinion. It will get bitterly cold, sure, but not to the extent of what the 12z Euro is showing. Especially if there's not a good layer of fresh snow on the ground. Also, it's been on the day 8-10 range for several days now; it keeps getting pushed back. I think we have already seen the coldest air we will ever see this season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The discharge of arctic air is on a much more massive scale this time around than earlier this month.  Lay down a decent snow pack prior to the cold and it'll do its dirty work.  On the coldest day every recorded in Chicago's history back in 1985, ORD only had 6" of snow on the ground and got down to -27F.  Obviously this is not in the cards, but the amount of cold establishing itself in Canada is more than it has been so far this season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GFS is sniffing out a major system Jan 31 - Feb 1st that cuts up the southern Midwest/OV/EC.  Depending on how strong the deepening trough sets up late January and when that system out of the 4 corners ejects out of the Rockies, this could be the country's first significant winter storm.  BTW, this fits the LRC when it impacted the Plains back on Dec 15th and was a rather energetic storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talk about Snowmagedon for the eastern CONUS...take it FWIW...but the GFS is definitely trending colder/snowier as we head into February.  Hopefully next month ends up becoming something special for a lot of us.

 

Certainly looks like the pattern in the upper latitudes becomes blocked up and North America pools up with a significant pool of cold air along with an active pattern on the southern fringe of the cold pool.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As many of you guys know, I created a baseball forum a month ago. Well, we got a lot of interest and people wanted to turn it into a sports forum so we did. I know there's been a lot of super bowl talk here etc

 

Here is the new domain: www.overtimeheroics.com let me know what you guys think. I'm posting a link to here on the site as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Currently sitting around a campfire enjoying a few adult bevarges in the sprinkles with a temp of 39f, as I am tarp camping with my son... In Jan. We have 15f rated gear.. But still. Pics want load.. Too big

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Currently sitting around a campfire enjoying a few adult bevarges in the sprinkles with a temp of 39f, as I am tarp camping with my son... In Jan. We have 15f rated gear.. But still. Pics want load.. Too big

 

O, wow! You're camping.

Campfire sounds really good about now.  :)

 

High of 42° here today.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GGEM...too bad its a week away...but man, this would put a smile on a lot of faces!

holy moly! The problem is, as you said, it's a week away. Plus the Canadian seems to be the only one on board for the last couple of runs or so. I really hope we can track a powerhouse storm because I'm tired of these clippers that are only giving us a couple of inches.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

holy moly! The problem is, as you said, it's a week away. Plus the Canadian seems to be the only one on board for the last couple of runs or so. I really hope we can track a powerhouse storm because I'm tired of these clippers that are only giving us a couple of inches.

Man, you and me both.  If there is any system in the LRC cycle, this is one of them.  Back on Dec 15th, this storm was an energetic cut-off system.  If you can marry this energy with a powerful jet stream and you got yourself a big winter storm.

 

As for the Euro, its not handling the cut-off energy near Mexico/US Border very well and hangs it back way to long which is the models bias.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One hell of a storm the GEM is showing. Would rival the GHD blizzard if it verified. What are the odds though?

Not only would it rival it, but it would come exactly 4 years later and take an almost exact track from back on 2011 this run.  Come on Mother Nature, give us something good this year!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

holy moly! The problem is, as you said, it's a week away. Plus the Canadian seems to be the only one on board for the last couple of runs or so. I really hope we can track a powerhouse storm because I'm tired of these clippers that are only giving us a couple of inches.

and not even that it looks like

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EURO/GGEM with nearly 2-3 feet of snow for NYC/BOS. NAM showing 2-3 inches lol

 

http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/2014-2015%20Winter/getimg__1_.png

 

15-20:1 ratios with temps in the teens/low 20's and 2.5-3.0 QPF on the EURO. 

That would be an Epic Blizzard to hit NYC....I think Wall Street would be shut down for a couple days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...