January 2015 Observations and Discussion

[WildWisconsinWeather]

The second would bring that nice fluffy "powda" (Boston accent) and with the winds it would blow around nicely.  Maybe even some brief backside LES for SE WI/NE IL.  00z GGEM also showing this second system.

 

Yeah, powda on top of some wetter snow (keeping my fingers crossed on this first storm) would not be too bad.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

06Z continues the Nanook of the north like pattern.  day 8 through day 16  8 day avg anomaly-gfs_t2x_swath_east_16.png

 

That's a solid SE Ridge look that could continue to produce snow chances for the region, let's hope it sticks.

[Tom]

06z GFS trying to lay down a glacier for Wisco...similar to what Chicago saw the first week in January with about 20" of snow.  Will never forget.

[Tom]

Jan 6-8th is when a real arctic assault invades the region...some -10's/20's subzero are showing up consistently on the GFS/Euro.  With a snow pack, this is certainly attainable.

[Money]

12z GFS still going with the 5th/6th wave, but a bit farther south near Milwaukee and N. IL with 6+

 

Actually, it's more spread the wealth than I thought.

 

6+ from just south of GB down to Chicago/N. Indiana.

 

And then 6+ from S. MN/E. IA as well

[Money]

12z GFS showing -10 to -15 temps for highs on the 8th. WC of -40 below 

[Tom]

12z GFS showing -10 to -15 temps for highs on the 8th. WC of -40 below 

This arctic attack looks colder than any of the ones we had last year, especially if there is 6-10" of snow on the ground.  Gotta say, GFS has been consistently showing re surging shots of cold air out of Canada.  CFSv2 seeing another mid month onslaught of colder weather.  Euro is in lala land. 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

This arctic attack looks colder than any of the ones we had last year, especially if there is 6-10" of snow on the ground.  Gotta say, GFS has been consistently showing re surging shots of cold air out of Canada.  CFSv2 seeing another mid month onslaught of colder weather.  Euro is in lala land. 

 

That is big time weenie, we just came off a warm December, and we had 6-10" of snow on the ground pretty consistently last January, so no way will we end up with a colder arctic attack than last year imo.

[Tom]

That is big time weenie, we just came off a warm December, and we had 6-10" of snow on the ground pretty consistently last January, so no way will we end up with a colder arctic attack than last year imo.

06z/12z GFS showing -15/-20F temps in N IL the morning of the 7th.  I think the lowest temp at ORD was -14F in January last year when the PV made its visit with howling winds.  This arctic invasion is going to be a cold arctic high pressure where you can really tank temps with low winds, clear skies, etc.  In essence, it is a significant arctic shot but a bit different bc of the winds.  If you can lay down a deep snow pack, clear the skies and low winds...that is a perfect situation for radiational cooling and colder temps.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

06z/12z GFS showing -15/-20F temps in N IL the morning of the 7th.  I think the lowest temp at ORD was -14F in January last year when the PV made its visit with howling winds.  This arctic invasion is going to be a cold arctic high pressure where you can really tank temps with low winds, clear skies, etc.  In essence, it is a significant arctic shot but a bit different bc of the winds.  If you can lay down a deep snow pack, clear the skies and low winds...that is a perfect situation for radiational cooling and colder temps.

 

Yeah, but what's the point of bringing it up that it is showing to be worse than last year when you know there will be a 5-10% chance at best of that happening.  In the long range the GFS will overdo the cold, it's happened over and over again (models in general as well).

[Tom]

Yeah, but what's the point of bringing it up that it is showing to be worse than last year when you know there will be a 5-10% chance at best of that happening.  In the long range the GFS will overdo the cold, it's happened over and over again (models in general as well).

On the contrary my friend, models Under-do arctic cold almost all the time.  The models have a harder time figuring out low level cold.  This air is coming straight from the Pole.  This will be a Case Study for the Jan 6-8th period.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

On the contrary my friend, models Under-do arctic cold almost all the time.  The models have a harder time figuring out low level cold.  This air is coming straight from the Pole.  This will be a Case Study for the Jan 6-8th period.

 

So you're saying you're confident clear, cold nights with a huge trough will verify, I'll hold you to it then.

[Tom]

If ORD can get down to 2F last night without a snow cover as a weakening 1040mb High Pressure hits the Plains directly, yes, I can see temps tank into the -10's F next week for ORD.  We shall see just how much snow is on the ground by then.

[Iowawx]

What's the Euro showing for the 2nd wave on the 5th-6th? GFS is a very solid hit for most of us.

[Tom]

12z Euro is weak with 2nd wave...

[WildWisconsinWeather]

12z Euro is weak with 2nd wave...

 

What a buzzkill that model is right now, if it's right though I will only follow the Euro the rest of the year.

[GDR]

12z Euro is weak with 2nd wave...

weak sauce for both waves

[gosaints]

Artc cold worse than last year..... What?

[Maxim]

so much hype over a cold pattern change lmao

[gosaints]

So is -18 with no wind worse the -14 with howling winds?

[Tom]

What a buzzkill that model is right now, if it's right though I will only follow the Euro the rest of the year.

Right!  If the Euro is under playing the 1st storm and 2nd wave, then somethings wrong.  However, if it is right, then I'll be paying more attention to this model.  It is also underplaying the arctic shot Jan 6-8th as well.  So lets see how it does over the next week.

[Tom]

So is -18 with no wind worse the -14 with howling winds?

First of all, that is NOT what was intended.  I was trying to imply that temps tank more under arctic HP's than when a PV makes an intrusion.  Therefore, I believe temps can go lower than the lowest recorded nightime temp last year at ORD.  Get it???

 

I wasn't making a comparison to "feel like" temps.  It obviously feels colder with a -14F temp and a sustained wind of 15-30 mph.  LOL, come on now. I  think you misinterpreted my comment the other way.

[gosaints]

Last time we were suppose to ignore the euro it won by a landslide

[Tom]

so much hype over a cold pattern change lmao

It's the first significant cold wave of the year.  Nothing wrong with talking about it.  It's been a mild December and this punch is going to leave a mark.

[Money]

GFS Ensembles for the 5th storm at hr 138

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f138.gif

[FV-Mike]

MKX on the Clipper

 

ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD CANADIAN NH AND GFS
WITH A WAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BRINGING SOME PACIFIC
MOISTURE WITH IT. WARM ADVECTION OVER THE POLAR AIRMASS SHOULD
RESULT IN BAND OF SNOW WITH RATHER LONG DURATION. THERMAL PROFILES
ARE QUITE COLD...WITH GFS SHOWING DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM
SURFACE TO 5 KM WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE.

IT IS PRETTY EARLY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE...BUT IF THIS WORKS OUT
THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS EXCEEDING
20:1 AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.  STAY TUNED.
 

[Tom]

MKX on the Clipper

 

ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD CANADIAN NH AND GFS

WITH A WAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BRINGING SOME PACIFIC

MOISTURE WITH IT. WARM ADVECTION OVER THE POLAR AIRMASS SHOULD

RESULT IN BAND OF SNOW WITH RATHER LONG DURATION. THERMAL PROFILES

ARE QUITE COLD...WITH GFS SHOWING DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM

SURFACE TO 5 KM WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE.

 

IT IS PRETTY EARLY AND A LOT CAN CHANGE...BUT IF THIS WORKS OUT

THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS EXCEEDING

20:1 AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.  STAY TUNED.

 

That would be some nice Powder.  I've seen systems like these produce 4-8"+, especially if west/east banding can form over one area.  These are interesting waves to track.

[james1976]

Its nice to see the Euro jump onboard with the early next week system, althought its showing lighter amounts than GFS at this time. But it's a very good sign to see these 2 models in some agreement.

[Money]

18z GFS still has the wave. Really strong too, although it's a bit delayed. Wide 6+ band still showing up.

[Money]

Actually, 10+ in the heaviest band in western/southern WI.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gifit looks like that there is no ssw taking place in the arctic.

[Tom]

Hey Snowshoe, there is your snow for your toys!

[Tom]

So Mike Caplan now has 2 nights subzero in his 7 Day forecast and a day next week with a high of 8F.  I bet he trends lower as we get closer.

 

18z GFS going nuts with the cold now for next Tuesday night...Wednesday high temps subzero from N/C IL on north.  Wednesday night temps crash into the mid/upper 10's below zero.

[tim the weatherman]

looked at the current qbo values that ever since may that we have been in the negative territory so if this keeps up next month will be cold.

[Tom]

Both PGFS/GFS showing signs of the next big storm to track around the 9th/10th.  With another redeveloping -PNA/SE Ridge, look out for a Plains/Lakes Cutter.  Both models showing no signs of any sustained warm up...with only re-surging cold.

[gosaints]

I wish one would actually become big.

[tim the weatherman]

just found some news that the el nino may be diminshing and a la nina may be coming to play.) U.S. La Niña Impacts
The first three months of the year during a La Niña typically feature below normal precipitation in the Southwest, the central and southern sections of the Rockies and Great Plains, and Florida. Meanwhile, the odds of surplus precipitation increase across the Pacific Northwest, in the northern Intermountain West, and over scattered sections of the north-central states, Ohio Valley, and upper Southeast. La Niña features unusually cold weather in the Northwest and (to a lesser extent) northern California, the northern Intermountain West, and the north-central states. Farther south, higher than normal temperatures are slightly favored in a broad area covering the southern Rockies and Great Plains, the Ohio Valley, the Southeast, and the mid-Atlantic states.

[Tom]

GFS Ensemble runs are showing the NW NAMER ridge building back in around the 12th/13th of this month.  Might lock back in for a long period.  Looking good so far to see some extended cold this month.  JMA Weeklies come out tomorrow.  Let's see what they say.  Have a fun and safe New Year everyone!  I'm heading out tonight to mingle downtown.  Please post snowfall maps when they load guys.  Adios!

[tim the weatherman]

i have heard a good point about last month that the qbo is responsible for the el nino to act like the la nina instead of being too warm to the east.

[tim the weatherman]

i am saying is happy new year we have ring in 2015!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!