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January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest


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It's kind of coast to coast right now..unfortunately the NAO failed this go around, unlike 1968-69. We'll attempt at it again in late January, but we'll have a +PNA by then.

 

 

The bottom line is we just can't buy a great January here anymore.  So incredibly frustrating.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The European models sure look good for a huge inversion. The UKMET in particular.

 

Whatever it sure looks like our big chance was blown for this winter. I expect we will have one more window at some point, but still.

One more shot in mid/late February, with the next round of WPAC forcing. It'd be ironic if it actually turned out to be something big.

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One more shot in mid/late February, with the next round of WPAC forcing. It'd be ironic if it actually turned out to be something big.

 

No question we're at least getting good windows of opportunity this winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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One more shot in mid/late February, with the next round of WPAC forcing. It'd be ironic if it actually turned out to be something big.

Considering the build up and excitement for this event that ended up basically nothing... I won't be holding my breath in anticipation.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It appears that all the models show a slight chance of snow in the northern areas of Washington with the onset of precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. 850mb temps are -4 to -6 when the precipitation moves in, but they do quickly warm as the heavier precipitation approaches.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Someday we'll have a great January again. Hopefully all of us are still alive to see it. BLI said something I agree with last week. Given that we saw two major arctic airmasses last winter the odds of having a major outbreak this year weren't great.

Last winter really was an odd one. I think it will look a lot better in retrospect, especially for Oregon. What kept it from being great was that there was literally nothing surrounding those outbreaks, and north of Kelso there was very little snow. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like another 5-6 weeks until the next round of WPAC forcing :(

You're probably going to get a bunch of crap for the missed cold in the PNW, but I was pretty sure we'd get smacked also, as well as many others on here. Unfortunately, you sung the song the loudest, so you'll get it the worst =P

 

As far as the next potential... I agree that Feb is our next window of opportunity. If tropical forcing progresses as it has been, I'd say beginning of Feb rather than mid/late Feb

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In the end what difference does it really make. We have been through so many stinker winters in the PNW, We've had no complete duds in about ten years. It was bound to happen. We lived through 2002-03 and 2004-05 and some of us are old enough to remember 91-92. It happens. If this year ends up a dud we'll survive. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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You're probably going to get a bunch of crap for the missed cold in the PNW, but I was pretty sure we'd get smacked also, as well as many others on here. Unfortunately, you sung the song the loudest, so you'll get it the worst =P

 

As far as the next potential... I agree that Feb is our next window of opportunity. If tropical forcing progresses as it has been, I'd say beginning of Feb rather than mid/late Feb

 

What do you guys think about March? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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You're probably going to get a bunch of crap for the missed cold in the PNW, but I was pretty sure we'd get smacked also, as well as many others on here. Unfortunately, you sung the song the loudest, so you'll get it the worst =P

 

As far as the next potential... I agree that Feb is our next window of opportunity. If tropical forcing progresses as it has been, I'd say beginning of Feb rather than mid/late Feb

I wholeheartedly stand behind anyone who called a big cold wave for early Jan (or so). There was a lot of good science behind it and a lot of historical evidence. January has gotten to a be huge disappointment around here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Some nice inversions starting to develop in E. Oregon. Ontario only 12 at noon.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Guess I should consider myself lucky with the snow I recieved last winter and again during this past November. I really enjoyed the November event, would have been nice to have gotten more than the 2.5" of snow but the fact it stuck around for a week and we had a many day stretch of below freezing temps was nice.

First pic was Dec 2013, second pic was Nov 2014.

image.jpg

image.jpg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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In the end what difference does it really make. We have been through so many stinker winters in the PNW, We've had no complete duds in about ten years. It was bound to happen. We lived through 2002-03 and 2004-05 and some of us are old enough to remember 91-92. It happens. If this year ends up a dud we'll survive.

This one has already had more than 2002-03 and ones like it...at least in this area. The thing that really bums me out is the fact this could be 3 winters in a row with very little snow here. That is really hard to take.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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BTW I hope you guys take a look at the thread about SEA having its warmest year on record. Some pretty amazing stats.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Almost as frustrating as the constant negativity around here?

Eh...

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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BTW I hope you guys take a look at the thread about SEA having its warmest year on record. Some pretty amazing stats.

 

Tremendous. I haven't looked at Salem, but I wouldn't be surprised if they had their warmest year too.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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You're probably going to get a bunch of crap for the missed cold in the PNW, but I was pretty sure we'd get smacked also, as well as many others on here. Unfortunately, you sung the song the loudest, so you'll get it the worst =P

 

As far as the next potential... I agree that Feb is our next window of opportunity. If tropical forcing progresses as it has been, I'd say beginning of Feb rather than mid/late Feb

Thing is, the large scale pattern transitioned exactly as we thought it would, particularly the PNA retrograde. Unfortunately, the elasticity of the barotropic PV/+NAO was just too tough to overcome.

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What do you guys think about March?

I can foresee the headlines: "2015, the year without a spring". At least somewhere.

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Anyone think we might see a little sleet or ZR tomorrow? Even though all the wundermap temp read upper 30's it still feels like it's below freezing and there is still frost, granted I am in the shade, but even still, if the air temperature were really 40, wouldn't the frost melt??

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Anyone think we might see a little sleet or ZR tomorrow? Even though all the wundermap temp read upper 30's it still feels like it's below freezing and there is still frost, granted I am in the shade, but even still, if the air temperature were really 40, wouldn't the frost melt??

 

Depends on where your farm is, boy.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Looks like I may get some snow on Sunday before the rain changeover. Going to be a slopfest here if that pans out.

Looking that way right now. Gfs is pretty bullish hanging onto near freezing or below 925mb temps, easterly winds, and a fair amount of precip. Higher elevations around nanaimo could get 8-10" if that panned out. Looks like 2-6" down here. I would be worried if I lived near the ocean, might be tough to see actual sticking snow.
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2014 stats at my location. I borrowed Skagit Weather's template.

 

Temperature:

 

Average: 51.6

Average Max: 60.3

Average Min: 43

Max temp: 102

Min temp: 9

Subfreezing lows: 49

Subfreezing Highs: 5

Lows below 20: 10

Highs above 80: 47

Highs above 90: 12

Highs above 100: 1

 

Precipitation:

Total: 60.48”

Wettest Day: 1.83”

Days over 1": 15

Days of Precipitation: 163

Days of Snow: 9

Days of mix: 4

Total Snowfall: 8.25”

Maximum Snow Depth: 4”

 

Other:

Thunderstorm Days: 15

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The 2008 snowfall comparison headlines are going to have to flush out around here first.

To be fair, I gave it a 60/40 chance assuming full wave synchronization. The NAO failed..looking back at it, I probably should have known that would happen given the stacked/barotropic PV anomaly there.

 

Elasticity won the day this time..live and learn! :)

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It looks like a totally run of the mill airmass back east, too. Not seeing how this month turns into a frigid one for the country as a whole unless something big happens towards the end.

ECMWF gives us a few days with single-digit highs. Not all that impressive, but Arctic nonetheless.

 

Certainly nothing close to the -25F we saw last year

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ECMWF gives us a few days with single-digit highs. Not all that impressive, but Arctic nonetheless.

 

Certainly nothing close to the -25F we saw last year

Doubt I'll see -25 this winter either.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2014 was salem s warmest year on record beating out 1926 by 0.1F

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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To be fair, I gave it a 60/40 chance assuming full wave synchronization. The NAO failed..looking back at it, I probably should have known that would happen given the stacked/barotropic PV anomaly there.

 

Elasticity won the day this time..live and learn! :)

 

It was the moment you lost me from your 2014-15 bandwagon.  I never thought we were primed for a big January but up until that point I thought you were pretty reasonable with your postulations and things were tracking nicely.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2nd warmest year at Pdx. Just missed 1992.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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