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January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest


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You clearly do not get it... It is about "preferance" not just about "cold". Your preferance is obviously cold and that is fine. Enjoy! I am sure you will have amazing stories and memories to reflect on. While others will not. :) moving on... And my preference is snow and this cold is waisted to my preference! Thanks. ;)

 

No, that's not it.

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Yeah that game was ridiculous.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yeah that game was ridiculous.

 

 

Have to say... I was torn but happy that Oregon won.

 

I hate Florida State and Jameis Winston... and even though I normally hate Oregon they are representing the Pac-12 and its really hard not to like Mariotta.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I would agree with that assessment. Its January 1st though. People can stand to wait a couple months before whining about this failed winter. Let it end first.

 

Given how January is now it's hard to have faith in the rest of the month. I think it's pretty likely we get one more window for troughing that could deliver snow. Even in Ninos we generally have that after this point. 

 

Only 3 years until our next 8-9 winter though!

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"preferance" ...  my preference is snow .... and this cold is waisted ......

 

As I see what you're saying, your "slant" is that with this season having been playing out to this point appearing to be somewhat certainly, an either or, cold or snow type one, you'd certainly much rather have some snow, who needs or wants, just cold. 

 

Takes all kinds of course, first. But, as I see things, the best hope more universal would certainly be for a decent mix of the two. This first with looking at the still present draught conditions and circumstance more south, along with just a hope if more general for some "snow in the mountains" more fully north and south.  

 

This said, and where considering your both slant and preference, hopefully we / all others interested in a good mix of both more, can allow for some amount of more specific hope for cold if with or without snow, while also hoping to see a pattern setup and transition more over to our liking.  

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I just don't buy the argument that cold is "wasted" if it doesn't snow. Cold airmasses are impressive in their own right. Snow is fickle. Ephemeral. Too many stars need to align for snow to happen in Portland or Seattle. So if it doesn't happen, that shouldn't be cause for any grief. Not if you're looking at it rationally anyway...which I think may be the real issue with a lot of people.

It shouldn't be THIS hard to get snow here. I can't recall ever seeing so little snow with so many cold waves (Jan 2013 through present).

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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-

.. What I'm seeing more seasonally, pattern wise, and main cold wisemy main interest, if not where it ends up more in particularlyis, that with looking at the last few years, west to east more, there's been plenty of cold more primary north looked at more generally—e.g. the polar vortex last, and more this year with this more recent even still present gut of more primary cold north of the Canadian borden more east, some other views. And with this it's more the other main element of pattern, i.e. just where and when this more abundant cold "hits" or might, more south, being more important. 

 

If you take just last year set with this year, more primary cold has been "based", more north and where considering its main stores, a bit more west certainly. And with this, the potential that we've seen for retrograde. Of course, or at least where considering snow here a bit more south, an excellent element main pattern wise, lending to the potential for even more "low-land" snow. Significant cold drops SW out over the Pacific, and so guides decent moisture more inland, very well. But this current more peculiar type of retrograde inclusive pattering has been and odd one. More gradual and more big and bold, and so rather than setting up to guide moisture more, more having blocked its pathway.

 

Related, generally. - http://theweatherfor...thwest/?p=59845

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Went to the top of Mailbox peak near North Bend today. Had an awesome view of Downtown Seattle, Bellevue, and North Bend. 4,000 feet of elevation gain in 4 miles. Hit the summit at sunrise. 

 

It was cold at the summit. Thought I would share these with you guys.

 

http://www.wta.org/site_images/trip-reports/2015/image.2015-01-01.1558727226/@@images/dfe9793d-a525-4dc9-ade7-3bd5f121cc7f.jpeg

 

 

http://www.wta.org/site_images/trip-reports/2015/image.2015-01-01.1563305287/@@images/9f27ec3e-c216-46db-bb44-5664f3d76e3c.jpeg

 

 

http://www.wta.org/site_images/trip-reports/2015/image.2015-01-01.1561336136/@@images/2c089ed7-6433-4d13-9896-0a28820917bc.jpeg

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After Mondays system clears, the first half of January is looking like it could be a total snoozefest on the GFS.  Mild too.

 

Temps approaching 60 once again by Tuesday down here. That's becoming a once every couple of weeks occurrence this winter.

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Congrats Jesse.

 

Maybe a little snow for Puget Sound Saturday night?

 

A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE 00Z NAM12 AND GFS -BOTH THE
PARALLEL AND OPERATIONAL RUNS - DRAW ENOUGH COOL AIR IN FROM THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT TO PRODUCE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESS NEAR 1300 M. THIS IS MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME SNOWFLAKES TO THE LOWLANDS BEFORE WARM
ADVECTION TAKES OVER AND DOMINATES.

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Maybe weenies do, but most knowledgable folks know how things work.

 

We don't need a -AO or -NAO to get major cold here. In fact, our biggest blasts in recent decades have occurred under strong +NAOs. We also don't need a -EPO, as long as we have a legitimate -AO and/or a -NAO to go along with it.

 

On the other hand, the PNW essentially requires a -EPO to score a blast.

I tend to agree on that point...near impossible to get the polar jet to dive south west of the Rockies without some kind of amplified ridge/block over Alaska or Bering Sea/Dateline. Meanwhile across the east a rather nondescript ridge out west with a trough in Alaska can get the job done if NAO/AO are favorable. A lack of all three will generally produce coast to coast warmth or at least normal temps in zonal flow.

 

Geography isn't on our side in the PNW w.r.t. arctic intrusions, we need the upper level support. Geography favors the eastern US much more as predominant wintertime flow introduces continental airmasses frequently. That is mostly why the east coast scores dozens of times for every one time the PNW scores. That and the PV tends to sit over Hudson Bay-Baffin Island.

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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Absolutely horrendous GFS run with tropical forcing in a favorable position for us. We just cannot win in the month of January.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I tend to agree on that point...near impossible to get the polar jet to dive south west of the Rockies without some kind of amplified ridge/block over Alaska or Bering Sea/Dateline. Meanwhile across the east a rather nondescript ridge out west with a trough in Alaska can get the job done if NAO/AO are favorable. A lack of all three will generally produce coast to coast warmth or at least normal temps in zonal flow.

 

Geography isn't on our side in the PNW w.r.t. arctic intrusions, we need the upper level support. Geography favors the eastern US much more as predominant wintertime flow introduces continental airmasses frequently. That is mostly why the east coast scores dozens of times for every one time the PNW scores. That and the PV tends to sit over Hudson Bay-Baffin Island.

I think you overstate how much more favorably positioned the Eastern US is. Much of the Western US is just as cold as the Eastern US. The Western lowlands are only a tiny fraction of the West. In recent years the West has certainly not had as many anomalously cold winters as the East though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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FWIW the GFS operational is pretty much alone in keeping the Eastern US cold during week two. Other models and the GFS ensemble show pretty much the entire country being mild.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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FWIW the GFS operational is pretty much alone in keeping the Eastern US cold during week two. Other models and the GFS ensemble show pretty much the entire country being mild.

Perhaps we will see something by the tail end of the month. Maybe a Jan 1996 repeat.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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No doubt the GFS is having serious issues. The analog composites are a full 180 degrees out of phase from what they were less than two days ago and the correlation scores are horrible. I doubt the pattern will be as hideous as what the operational GFS is showing.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I think you overstate how much more favorably positioned the Eastern US is. Much of the Western US is just as cold as the Eastern US. The Western lowlands are only a tiny fraction of the West. In recent years the West has certainly not had as many anomalously cold winters as the East though.

 

Agreed. It goes way beyond bad luck or climo at this point. 

 

Compare Missoula's January temp anomalies in the last 20 years to Boston. Missoula is way east of the Cascades and they exhibit the same trends as western WA/OR.

 

Missoula

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?mt5745

 

Boston

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ma0770

 

Missoula's last significantly cold January was in 1993 and their last prior to that was in 1980. Their 1981-2010 January mean was over 3 degrees higher than their 1961-90 mean.

 

Boston on the other hand at roughly the same latitude has seen numerous cold Januaries since the early 1980s. Their coldest January on record occurred in 2004.

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I think you overstate how much more favorably positioned the Eastern US is. Much of the Western US is just as cold as the Eastern US. The Western lowlands are only a tiny fraction of the West. In recent years the West has certainly not had as many anomalously cold winters as the East though.

 

The mountainous terrain out west actually forces a semi permanent Eastern U.S. trough (conservation of angular momentum) in the absolute height fields. The only reason parts of the West are "colder" in the means is due to elevation/topography.

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FWIW the GFS operational is pretty much alone in keeping the Eastern US cold during week two. Other models and the GFS ensemble show pretty much the entire country being mild.

Any coast to coast torch will probably be transitory at best. The East will be favored once we re-establish the Aleutian low/+PNA.

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No doubt the GFS is having serious issues. The analog composites are a full 180 degrees out of phase from what they were less than two days ago and the correlation scores are horrible. I doubt the pattern will be as hideous as what the operational GFS is showing.

I'm expecting a +PNA for the 2nd half of January.

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Much warmer night due to some cloud cover, currently 28 degrees. My thinking is we still have a shot by even mid January to see something good, and even if we don't I remember many a Febuary that was pretty darn good in the past. Lots of winter to go!!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I'm expecting a +PNA for the 2nd half of January.

You're probably right we lose no matter what in January. I just want spring to be here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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