January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

The WRF doesn't look promising for snow anywhere tomorrow night except for Whatcom County. The air mass just isn't going to be cold enough and precip is going to be light until much warmer air invades.

Always suprises popping up...like today! Snowed for half the day today with slushy accumulations even on I-5. I don't think many people thought that was going to happen...you just never know.

 

Currently 34 degrees.

[Deweydog]

Except for his call of no arctic air in late December, so I'd say that those of us who predicted arctic air between late December and mid January were more accurate.

To be fair, he didn't say there would be no Arctic air late in December but that it would mainly go east. As it turned out it was able to dig west while the following progression just didn't quite have what it took to get its together.

[Front Ranger]

Ah jeezers... Thanks for setting me straight, guy!

 

Are you talking like Biff from Back to the Future because it's 2015?

[bainbridgekid]

Sooo...how does the latest NAM/GFS/NOGAPS/GEM Weeklies look for North Sound snow this weekend? Any change from the early afternoon runs?

Not good for anyone South of Watcom County.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow24.48.0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

Always suprises popping up...like today! Snowed for half the day today with slushy accumulations even on I-5. I don't think many people thought that was going to happen...you just never know.

 

Currently 34 degrees.

 

It is certainly possible there could be some pockets with snowfall.  Very close call.

[Front Ranger]

You're barking up the wrong tree. I have felt for a while this was going to be a quiet winter on the whole. With three cold snaps under our belt already it certainly doesn't put odds in our favor given the rhythm of things lately.

 

For the 12th time since your rebirth, down boy.

 

Says the man with a dog name.

[snow_wizard]

Not good for anyone South of Watcom County.

 

 

Definitely worse than previous runs.

[Front Ranger]

Except for his call of no arctic air in late December, so I'd say that those of us who predicted arctic air between late December and mid January were more accurate.

 

He insisted December was "off the table" a week out, and turned up the hype for early January. Phil is the odd forecaster in that he actually gets less accurate the closer you get. From a couple months out, he's outstanding.

[GHweatherChris]

Could be some icy roads in the morning due to the moisture today and clearing tonight.

[GHweatherChris]

He insisted December was "off the table" a week out, and turned up the hype for early January. Phil is the odd forecaster in that he actually gets less accurate the closer you get. From a couple months out, he's outstanding.

Although, it really wasn't that impressive for Western Washington or Western Oregon as a whole IMO.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Although, it really wasn't that impressive for Western Washington or Western Oregon as a whole.

 

Yeah, it was definitely on the lamer side of what I expected, myself.

[snow_wizard]

There appears to be a growing consensus we will be high and dry as we get into week two.  That's fine with me compared to the very warm rain we had in December.  Some cold fog would be just fine compared to that.  Hopefully the mean trough shifting westward will be good for us when the next round blocking sets up over the Pacific.

[Front Ranger]

Although, it really wasn't that impressive for Western Washington or Western Oregon as a whole IMO.

 

It wasn't, but it was a pretty good cold wave for much of the West. And it mainly happened in December. If he'd just stuck with his original late Dec - mid January time frame, he would have been fine. Though still not the results you guys were expecting/hoping for, obviously.

[Dan the Weatherman]

We may break into something like that for March and April.  Until then I think we will see more of what we've seen so far this winter except maybe the mean trough being a bit further west this month after this quick fire hose that's going to hit the NW.  The bottom line on that is it could be pretty dry for a good part of the month over much of the West.

I am hoping that we get into a wetter, more active pattern at some point this winter with some staying power so that the mountains from CA to the PNW can build a healthy snowpack for the dry season in order to help alleviate the drought situation. Of course, it may take 2-3 years to break the drought completely, especially in CA where it is much more severe, but relief needs to start somewhere. Cold and dry or warm and dry in the middle of the winter just doesn't do a bit of good when it should be stormier.

[Snowman5678]

Had some flurries in the morning and light snow in the late morning and early afternoon, switched to snow and sleet and then to all rain in the afternoon. No accumulation though.

[GHweatherChris]

It wasn't, but it was a pretty good cold wave for much of the West. And it mainly happened in December. If he'd just stuck with his original late Dec - mid January time frame, he would have been fine. Though still not the results you guys were expecting/hoping for, obviously.

I say he missed.  And I will get a nasty response from him as expected.

 

Guessing the overall pattern, sure it is impressive(which he basically did), but when we all want absolutes, its a miss most of the time such as this one.

[Bryant]

I say he missed.  And I will get a nasty response from him as expected.

 

Guessing the overall pattern, sure it is impressive(which he basically did), but when we all want absolutes, its a miss most of the time such as this one.

 

So because he missed the PNW specifically, that means he missed overall? That's a bit harsh 

[Snowman5678]

Not good for anyone South of Watcom County.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow24.48.0000.gif

 

Yeah that seems like a resonable solution in this scenario...I don't think it will amount to much for anyone except for Northern Whatcom and Southern BC.

[Phil]

To be fair, he didn't say there would be no Arctic air late in December but that it would mainly go east. As it turned out it was able to dig west while the following progression just didn't quite have what it took to get its s**t together.

Thanks. I've decided not to get into it with the nitpickers, at least this go around.

[Black Hole]

As a lot of you know I am finishing my degree in Atmospheric Science this spring. I decided I want to do more schooling so I am going to begin work on my masters degree this summer. I am going to be studying a few things, but my big project will be with ensemble systems for MCS formation. Seems like a lot of fun! Anyway just wanted to share that in case anybody was curious.

[GHweatherChris]

So because he missed the PNW specifically, that means he missed overall? That's a bit harsh 

No I say he missed the PNW, west of the cascades for sure.  But he did hit the overall pattern, that was impressive.

 

We want absolutes though, at least weather weenies do, and we did not see the potential he put out there.

[Bryant]

No I say he missed the PNW, west of the cascades for sure.  But he did hit the overall pattern, that was impressive.

 

We want absolutes though, at least weather weenies do, and we did not see the potential he put out there.

 

I just feel like his forecast deserves more appreciation that what he's getting. Just because we didn't see cold, people feel that he failed. He's an East coaster... can't expect him to understand the micro climates of the PNW. 

[ShawniganLake]

This winter that could end up right and we could still have an Arctic blast...see December.

Wouldn't surprise me if something quick hitting happened mid month before the Aleutian low takes over the second half.

[GHweatherChris]

I keep seeing people state how courageous it was to do a long range forecast.  This is not life and death.  

 

I have no interest in doing one myself so I guess that means I am not courageous  , I am entirely too busy to even take the time to put one together, I am not lucky enough to be fully retired and loaded in my mid 30's like some.

 

I am a weather weenie through and through, I understand the things that make our weather what it is, and am disapointed when things in my backyard are not what I want.  I will never change on that.

[GHweatherChris]

I just feel like his forecast deserves more appreciation that what he's getting. Just because we didn't see cold, people feel that he failed. He's an East coaster... can't expect him to understand the micro climates of the PNW. 

At the risk of getting into trouble with IFred, he said he lived in the PNW for awhile, I would like to think that if he is as smart as he claims than he understands our micro climates.

 

Also, I never said he busted overall, he just was off for the west side overall.

 

He nailed the overall progression, I will give him that, but I will  second Deweys notion that his sensationalist posts should have never been posted, that hurt him.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

As a lot of you know I am finishing my degree in Atmospheric Science this spring. I decided I want to do more schooling so I am going to begin work on my masters degree this summer. I am going to be studying a few things, but my big project will be with ensemble systems for MCS formation. Seems like a lot of fun! Anyway just wanted to share that in case anybody was curious.

 

Best of luck with that, I just finished my MASc this past fall after 4 1/2 years of slogging it out while working full time. If I have any word of advice it would be to avoid jumping into full time employment while still working on your thesis, unless of course it's directly related to your thesis. Sounds like any interesting program anyway, something I'd like to get into myself long term, taking modern machine learning concepts and applying them to regional meteorology.

[Front Ranger]

I just feel like his forecast deserves more appreciation that what he's getting. Just because we didn't see cold, people feel that he failed. He's an East coaster... can't expect him to understand the micro climates of the PNW. 

 

I think he's getting fair treatment. If you don't acknowledge the limitations of LR forecasting, it will come back to bite you.

 

As I already said, he did great two months away getting the overall pattern right (except calling for a massive SSW and -AO/-NAO that did not materialize - and as he acknowledged, that would have made a big difference), but he also tried to get more detailed and dramatic than LR forecasting can support, as we got closer.

 

It's ok to be both supportive and critical at the same time. If you want to be honest. Pros and cons. Strengths and weaknesses. It's not a black and white thing.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the models and ensembles indicate the pattern this month will be a bit different from the patterns that dominated the torchy periods of October through December.  The mean trough over the Pacific will be further west there will be more cool interludes / quiet periods in the PNW.  Pretty good chance we get one more good window of opportunity in the late Jan / early Feb time frame.

[snow_wizard]

I think he's getting fair treatment. If you don't acknowledge the limitations of LR forecasting, it will come back to bite you.

 

As I already said, he did great two months away getting the overall pattern right (except calling for a massive SSW and -AO/-NAO that did not materialize - and as he acknowledged, that would have made a big difference), but he also tried to get more detailed and dramatic than LR forecasting can support, as we got closer.

 

It's ok to be both supportive and critical at the same time. If you want to be honest. Pros and cons. Strengths and weaknesses. It's not a black and white thing.

 

Indeed.  I learned my lesson about being too specific and dramatic many times and have finally learned to be more general.  It has served me well.

[GHweatherChris]

I think he's getting fair treatment. If you don't acknowledge the limitations of LR forecasting, it will come back to bite you.

 

As I already said, he did great two months away getting the overall pattern right (except calling for a massive SSW and -AO/-NAO that did not materialize - and as he acknowledged, that would have made a big difference), but he also tried to get more detailed and dramatic than LR forecasting can support, as we got closer.

 

It's ok to be both supportive and critical at the same time. If you want to be honest. Pros and cons. Strengths and weaknesses. It's not a black and white thing.

If a person cannot take any criticism, then why throw yourself out there.

 

I am in a brand new position with my company right now, it actually forces me to challenge right and wrong, or just every day decisions regularly to ensure the best for our customers.

 

For those that wonder, I work for the biggest Satellite Cable provider in the world.  "Tim is a subscriber".

 

Started out as a technician and have moved on to out in the field training of every step of the job.  Helping those that are the FACE of the company, I take plenty of criticism along the way, that helps me learn and become better.

 

And, my weather hobby has actually helped in some situations for the safety of our technicians the last couple of years.

[snow_wizard]

As a lot of you know I am finishing my degree in Atmospheric Science this spring. I decided I want to do more schooling so I am going to begin work on my masters degree this summer. I am going to be studying a few things, but my big project will be with ensemble systems for MCS formation. Seems like a lot of fun! Anyway just wanted to share that in case anybody was curious.

 

Very cool.  I certainly wish I had followed through in pursuing a career in meteorology. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

On the topic of pattern progression, we may have been mostly missed in the West but I'm not sure anyone predicted that the East would torch essentially the entire month. In fact the West ended up getting cold before the East. I may have misread things, but I do seem to remember there were predictions for the East to get cold with the pattern retrograding toward a cold West; in fact the West ended up getting cold first and the pattern has turned out to be very progressive with things shifting toward the East now. I do think some of the long range ECMWF projects may have hinted that would happen, but even then they flip flopped a bit on the cold in the West. Nothing's perfect.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=60644

[wx_statman]

I'd go a bit further than just silly. 

 

Ouch!!

[Phil]

I think he's getting fair treatment. If you don't acknowledge the limitations of LR forecasting, it will come back to bite you.

 

As I already said, he did great two months away getting the overall pattern right (except calling for a massive SSW and -AO/-NAO that did not materialize - and as he acknowledged, that would have made a big difference), but he also tried to get more detailed and dramatic than LR forecasting can support, as we got closer.

 

It's ok to be both supportive and critical at the same time. If you want to be honest. Pros and cons. Strengths and weaknesses. It's not a black and white thing.

In regards to the SSW, I suspect it's a "delayed not denied" scenario. We were close to achieving a SSW this time, but just missed the threshold of no return.

[richard mann]

We need a wetter, more active pattern down in CA so that bigger storms can bring significant snows to the Sierra, because the snowpack down here isn't doing so well, either.

 

Fuller Far West focused, I'm looking at the potential for a gradual "squeeze" more south main precip. focused, with main cold's movement more eastward working to lend to an initially more zonal flow, before then more south and so to one more meridional. And with this its working south to press on main moisture, with hopefully steering it more to where it'll do the most good. 

[richard mann]

Ouch!!

 

31 days, in January.

[Deweydog]

31 days, in January.

Just as there are 31 commas in the English alphabet!

[snow_wizard]

Very interesting analogs tonight.  Almost none from El Nino years and many of them led to good things 2 or 3 weeks later.  It's nice to see there is no sign of the typical split flow / strong southern branch of the jet stream showing up that you would normally expect in the second half of a warm ENSO winter.  There could be hope for the second half of this winter.

[richard mann]

Just as there are 31 commas in the English alphabet!

 

Right. I'd almost forgotten. Thanks for the steering. I'd almost lost sight of the context for a moment there.

 

BTW, got any more sugar-lumps. ?