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January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest


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1. It's a given that we'll see a period of cold onshore flow before the end of the snow season. Climo shows that it's more likely in March or April during a turd season, but it'll eventually come. 

 

2. Again, climo shows that it's pretty unlikely to score anything significant in back-to-back Februarys. And February virtually never turns around a snowless NDJ like this one will have been for most of us. Happened in 1990, can't think of any others. 

 

1. I thought you were among those saying this wasn't a true turd because of the frequent, semi-Arctic intrusions? I seem to remember a lot of cool onshore flow in Decembers before many of those winters with lots of cool onshore flow in March/April...

 

2. Eh, climo also showed that before 2006, significant Arctic outbreaks before Dec 15 were pretty rare. Then they happened 5/8 years. Climo is weird sometimes.

 

Again, I'm not expecting a Feb 2014 repeat by any means. But I like the odds of a period a cool/cold onshore flow with low snow levels...a different pattern than we've seen for awhile.

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1. I thought you were among those saying this wasn't a true turd because of the frequent, semi-Arctic intrusions? I seem to remember a lot of cool onshore flow in Decembers before many of those winters with lots of cool onshore flow in March/April...

 

2. Eh, climo also showed that before 2006, significant Arctic outbreaks before Dec 15 were pretty rare. Then they happened 5/8 years. Climo is weird sometimes.

 

Again, I'm not expecting a Feb 2014 repeat by any means. But I like the odds of a period a cool/cold onshore flow with low snow levels...a different pattern than we've seen for awhile.

 

0.0" of snow at BLI (among many others) is an awful winter no matter how you slice it. It's been bad, maybe not top flight bad, but a turd nonetheless.

 

It's rare to go this deep into the snow season without any widespread snow events and then have a dramatic turnaround at the 11th hour. In an El Nino it would be unheard of.  Just saying, there's a pretty legitimate reason for the pessimism. I'd just like an inch and if we can get that at some point, I'll gladly take it. In February? All the better.

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A few days.

 

I meant the general regime of consistently well above normal temps that has lasted for almost a year now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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0.0" of snow at BLI (among many others) is an awful winter no matter how you slice it. It's been bad, maybe not top flight bad, but a turd nonetheless.

 

It's rare to go this deep into the snow season without any widespread snow events and then have a dramatic turnaround at the 11th hour. In an El Nino it would be unheard of.  Just saying, there's a pretty legitimate reason for the pessimism. I'd just like an inch and if we can get that at some point, I'll gladly take it. In February? All the better.

 

Ok.

 

I like Andrew/Tim's odds to score something nice by some time in February. Cold onshore flow. Maybe even late this month.

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I think it will retrograde west w/ the tropical forcing sliding back over the E-Hem. Good news is the PV/circumpolar transport field has now been compromised and should be destroyed w/ the next shot(s)..bad news is the SAO/QBO are starting to progress out of optimal alignment..

 

There's more than one way to skin a cat...

 

Man, that's an awful idiom.

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They live at 1600' and average 50"+ per winter. I also like their chances to add to their piddly seasonal totals at some point. Not much of a limb to go out on IMO.

 

2012 and then some?!???

 

Honestly, though, in true turd snowfall winters they usually do almost as bad as most the lowlands. See 2009-10.

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I meant the general regime of consistently well above normal temps that has lasted for almost a year now.

I get that, but then again the anomaly the kid pointed out isn't that odd. In fact it's pretty much what you'd expect given the current regime.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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The MJO is being trumped by extratropical wave-driving right now..it's not often you see two consecutive Arctic blasts in the east w/ the MJO in phases 4-5.

 

The PV is toast..late January for wave-2 completion?

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The snowpack at the pass is dismal right now. Hope things can improve in January. I found some interesting stats while browsing a site for backcountry skiiers called turnsallyear.

 

Here is a list of the worse December snowfalls since 1976 (a bad year) at Snoqualmie Pass. Keep in mind the December average is 96 inches.

 

1976 = 19"
1989 = 13"
2002 = 35"
2009 = 22"
2011 = 24"
2013 = 15"
2014 = 25"

 

As you can see we have had a recent string of bad Decembers. Since 1930, the worse decade for snowfall was the 1940s, and the best decade was the 1950s.

 

You can find the data here: http://hyak.net/snowfallhist.html

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The snowpack at the pass is dismal right now. Hope things can improve in January. I found some interesting stats while browsing a site for backcountry skiiers called turnsallyear.

 

Here is a list of the worse December snowfalls since 1976 (a bad year) at Snoqualmie Pass. Keep in mind the December average is 96 inches.

 

1976 = 19"

1989 = 13"

2002 = 35"

2009 = 22"

2011 = 24"

2013 = 15"

2014 = 25"

 

As you can see we have had a recent string of bad Decembers. Since 1930, the worse decade for snowfall was the 1940s, and the best decade was the 1950s.

 

You can find the data here: http://hyak.net/snowfallhist.html

 

 

We'll be fine.

 

Last I heard... Jim said we were being too negative and we should stop worrying about bad runs and the "evidence is mounting".      Need an update from him.    :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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LR 12z GFS looks good for a mountain snow pattern. Will be interesting to see how long that carrot dangles!

 

It is. I hope it actually verifies. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12z Euro doesn't look promising at day 10. Yet another Aleutian low digging offshore keeping any appreciable troughing away from us. A continuation of the perma-pattern of the last year or so.

 

I hope the Aleutians are enjoying all that troughing!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12z Euro doesn't look promising at day 10. Yet another Aleutian low digging offshore keeping any appreciable troughing away from us. A continuation of the perma-pattern of the last year or so.

Just wait 'til February.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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We might get lucky with the Nino progged to steadily weaken for the rest of the winter.  In fact this probably won't even be an official Nino when it's all said and done.

-

What we're looking at more basically, with emphasis, in my view, Nino notwithstanding—(plenty of moisture looking at the idea more generally, if more just above normal, more widespread and in the right places leastwise.), … is the idea that more primary cold to the north is sitting where more substantially consolidated (having been caused to build up.) in places, and then otherwise, steered to others, .. not particularly good for us. / Neither the PNW or the Far West looked at more as a whole.

 

As I've pointed to within a post of mine tack up just the other day, main focus cold stores north and over Canada, east of the Rockies and more eastward, have been being added to, by cold that had been sitting over Northern Asia. Or more importantly, have by-passed all of the main Northern tier pathways more longitudinal from there to here.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=61994

( Broader pattern at this point, having shifted to more meridional. 1501072015z nasa globlir.jpg )

 

15010812z nhem 500.gif

15010812z nhem 850.gif   @

 

.. And with this, we have to wait for a general shake up pattern (i.e. cold steering.) wise, toward hoping to see more of what we either whether need or want. Or more basically, any more significant main "cold" presence, toward seeing any either whether decent cold, or its contribution to main precip..

 

As I see things, the most positive element perhaps working (set to begin working.) to bring this change about, is a shift toward a generally increasing more over-all force of movement where looking at main and broader cold air mass movement, from the 9th forward.

 

Generally related.

 

http://theweatherfor…weather-climate/?p=62000

http://theweatherfor...weather-climate/?p=62006

---
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I laughed when I saw this....Though a little part of me died inside.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=weather-event_2014fyvcoldestyear

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Anyways....Aside from social commentary....The fog has lifted here on the banks of the Willamette in Salem. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I was visiting a friend from college while I was down there recently. He related a story about how a student at the high school he is a teacher at had written on the bathroom wall that a female cheerleader and he were in a "relationship." He said that it was too bad he couldn't be open about how that would NEVER happen because in Oklahoma it is still legal (And likely in his case) to fire someone based on sexual orientation. Lovely place...

So your friend was dating a cheerleader?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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RMAOFLKSDFKLSDMFLKDSMF.

 

Is that all you got from that? Hehe.

 

Almost the middle of January and this place is dead.

Well considering the middle of January is typically the zenith of forum deadness, we're right on pace.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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The MJO is being trumped by extratropical wave-driving right now..it's not often you see two consecutive Arctic blasts in the east w/ the MJO in phases 4-5.

 

The PV is toast..late January for wave-2 completion?

 

Just our typical luck lately.  Even when the ball is in our court the East outdoes us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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They really needed it. Been long overdue.

 

Dutch Harbor has yet to have snowfall. They usually have had about 25 inches by now. Cold rain has been the norm there.

"There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku

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12z Euro doesn't look promising at day 10. Yet another Aleutian low digging offshore keeping any appreciable troughing away from us. A continuation of the perma-pattern of the last year or so.

 

At least the absurdly warm air mass has mostly not mixed down to the surface this month.  Good chance we avoid a top tier warm Jan the way it looks right now.  Talk about lowering standards!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Dutch Harbor has yet to have snowfall. They usually have had about 25 inches by now. Cold rain has been the norm there.

 

That is one stunning stat right there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It was a pretty significant event. Even some places that didn't have serious flooding saw impressive 24 hour totals. 

 

Like over 3.5" at OLM (most awesome station ever).

 

I think what happened on the Coast was pretty impressive.  For Aberdeen to have problems from rainfall you know it rained a lot!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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At least the absurdly warm air mass has mostly not mixed down to the surface this month.  Good chance we avoid a top tier warm Jan the way it looks right now.  Talk about lowering standards!

 

Between 2007-2013, 5 of 7 Januaries were below normal at SEA. Fun fact of the day!  B)

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Between 2007-2013, 5 of 7 Januaries were below normal at SEA. Fun fact of the day!  B)

 

Below the new normal is pretty meaningless.  None of them have even approached being what we are long overdue for.

 

Also...I was referencing our recent string of torchy months as opposed to recent Januaries.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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LR 12z GFS looks good for a mountain snow pattern. Will be interesting to see how long that carrot dangles!

 

The ensembles, both Euro and GFS, agree on a very wet pattern for the PNW days 6-10 as a massive Gulf of Alaska low takes hold, and gradually lower snow levels to the point that by days 8+ the mountains could be seeing significant snow.

 

It's a zonal pattern for the vast majority of the U.S. as blocking disappears...not cold.

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