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January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest


Skagit Weather

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Today was nice. I wanted to leave work early, but I had a mtg at 4pm which the person ended up canceling at the last minute :(

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12z ensembles are not nearly as promising as the operational Euro the past couple runs...ridging is too far east. But, things definitely look better than a couple days ago.

 

In the long range, the GFS ensembles continue to have a strong signal for Aleutian ridging.

 

Is Aleutian ridging one of the ingredients we need to get winter weather (PNW), or does that work against us?

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The 0z GFS attempts to get good in the same time frame the last two ECMWF runs have shown it getting cold.  It appears we have a shot at it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The Aleutian ridge is somewhat overrated..

 

What matters most (outside the essential configurations) is the wavenumber and mid-latitude AAM integral (flow rate). You want a -AAMI and an average wavenumber for western cold..

 

Right now, we're in a high wavenumber, high AAMI regime. In this case, that's not going to change unless/until we get a legitimate -NAM to rebalance mass transport..

 

The Aleutian ridge proggged on the GEFS/ECMWF will be of no benefit, as long as the barotropic PV/+NAM is preventing sustained meridional transport and wave consolidation..

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7 positive SOI days in a row now.  That's the first time that has happened in months.  Hopefully there will be a mid latitude response in the coming days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That was fun.  Now what?

 

I think the retrogression is still on the table, but not the most likely outcome at this time.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Have the "flu" or something?

 

Pardon here Dewey. I've shown myself to be like some other people near to where I am here more south, interested in a more secure water supply, and concerned about the potential for a more extended drought. 

 

I guess when it all comes down, I'm fine. Just like seeing things wetter in the fall and winter, maybe spring.

 

.. Things not all that dire. With Sacramento as a gage more central here more south, south of me of course, as compared to the 37 percent of normal rainfall in 1976-77, they're showing more like 65 percent. 

 

If with twice a many people, better management these days. 

 

".. better". ? .. I guess I'd like to see it rain a little more here, sooner than later. Maybe snow a bit more in the Sierras, Oregon Cascades.  And have perhaps bought into the idea a bit that it may not, sooner.  Que, sera sera of course.

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Guest Winterdog
snow_wizard, on 16 Jan 2015 - 11:26 PM, said:

I think the retrogression is still on the table, but not the most likely outcome at this time.

I think you are right about it not being the most likely outcome.   Whatever the outcome is we will move on and one day it will be summer.

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I think you are right about it not being the most likely outcome.   Whatever the outcome is we will move on and one day it will be summer.

 

Indeed.  I hope to not only move on, but move away.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Pardon here Dewey. I've shown myself to be like some other people near to where I am here more south, interested in a more secure water supply, and concerned about the potential for a more extended drought.

 

I guess when it all comes down, I'm fine. Just like seeing things wetter in the fall and winter, maybe spring.

 

".. better". ? .. I guess I'd like to see it rain a little more here, sooner than later. Maybe snow a bit more in the Sierras, Oregon Cascades. And have perhaps bought into the idea a bit that it may not, sooner.

IC.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Pardon here Dewey. I've shown myself to be like some other people near to where I am here more south, interested in a more secure water supply, and concerned about the potential for a more extended drought. 

 

I guess when it all comes down, I'm fine. Just like seeing things wetter in the fall and winter, maybe spring.

 

.. Things not all that dire. With Sacramento as a gage more central here more south, south of me of course, as compared to the 37 percent of normal rainfall in 1976-77, they're showing more like 65 percent. 

 

If with twice a many people, better management these days. 

 

".. better". ? .. I guess I'd like to see it rain a little more here, sooner than later. Maybe snow a bit more in the Sierras, Oregon Cascades.  And have perhaps bought into the idea a bit that it may not, sooner.  Que, sera sera of course.

I would like that for you too... mostly for agricultural reasons.

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This winter needs to be put out of its misery.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks wet for both games tomorrow.  

 

The models have toyed with a solid rain shadow over Seattle with lots activity all around there tomorrow... but I think the rain shadow will not be able to block all of the rain.

 

And the game in New England looks seriously wet.   

 

if they had flipped the game times... having the East Cost game go first and then our game... it might have been better weather for both games.     Seattle looks to be well into the rain shadow later in the day and the storm for the Patriots/Colts game is arriving just at the late start time.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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February will be better.

Solely based on recent history and the CFS, February will be better than September, not January. Ugh...

 

Although the text portion of yesterday's CFS analysis makes for an interesting read:

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEK 3/4 PERIOD, THINGS ARE DECIDEDLY UNCERTAIN. ON  TODAY'S WEEK-2 MANUAL BLEND, THERE ARE TWO STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES  OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. ONE IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS, THE OTHER  JUST OFF OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THESE CENTERS ARE NOT WELL-TELECONNECTED,  SUGGESTING ONE IS TRANSIENT. BASED ON THE DAILY PROGRESSION OF THE ENSEMBLE  MEANS, IT APPEARS THAT THE MEAN RIDGE BY THE END OF WEEK-2 IS MOST LIKELY TO BE  NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. SUCH A PATTERN TENDS TO BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA, AND OFTEN PRECEDES COLD PERIODS ACROSS  MUCH OF THE CONUS. THEREFORE, IT SEEMS THAT THE TILT TOWARD COLDER  PROBABILITIES DURING WEEK-2 IS PART OF A LOWER FREQUENCY PATTERN THAT WOULD  TEND TO FAVOR COLDER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS,  INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY.  
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That first week of February is one hell of a solar transition. You go from golden sky's at 2pm to a bright afternoon sun for at least an hour or two. It's all downhill from there until late October.

 

 

Seasons suck.   Too bad we can't live in perpetual darkness.

 

Are you really a vampire?    

 

And its not all downhill from now until October.... the days start getting shorter in late June!   Geez.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm afraid we are screwed.  The ridge that develops along or just off the coast in about a week is too sharp and not broad enough to be optimal for a full scale retrogression.  It looks exactly the same on the GFS and the Canadian.  Looking at this winter since the late Nov / early Dec event it has easily been the worst since 2002-03.  All we can do is hope the short lived weak El Nino this winter was enough to alleviate the threat of a Nino next winter.  I think we will already have some idea of whether that is the case by mid spring or so.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Seasons suck.   Too bad we can't live in perpetual darkness.

 

Are you really a vampire?    

 

And its not all downhill from now until October.... the days start getting shorter in late June!   Geez.

 

I'm actually in the ifred camp.  You should consider moving to San Diego (specifically, Coronado) if you want 72 and sun most days.  It ain't happenin here.

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February will be better.

 

I'm not so sure of that now.  I suppose it would be hard to be much worse.  It does appear the MJO will be more favorable again by early Feb.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That first week of February is one hell of a solar transition. You go from golden sky's at 2pm to a bright afternoon sun for at least an hour or two. It's all downhill from there until late October.

 

Late October?

 

Also...there are some really cold Februaries on record including some that had major cold and snow in late Feb.  Not saying it will happen this year, but to write off Feb due to sun angle is obviously not accurate.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm actually in the ifred camp.  You should consider moving to San Diego (specifically, Coronado) if you want 72 and sun most days.  It ain't happenin here.

 

 

His camp where summer should never happen and it should be dark all year long?

 

We normally have some of the best summer weather in the country.   So I will stay right here and enjoy our seasons with short winter days and long, sunny summer days and you can move to Juneau!

 

Why should I have to move to San Diego because I appreciate our bright, sunny, long summer days that are an inherent part of this climate??      :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Late October?

 

Also...there are some really cold Februaries on record including some that had major cold and snow in late Feb. Not saying it will happen this year, but to write off Feb due to sun angle is obviously not accurate.

I think he's speaking purely in terms of sun angle.

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His camp where summer should never happen and it should be dark all year long?

 

We normally have some of the best summer weather in the country.   So I will stay right here and enjoy our seasons with short winter days and long, sunny summer days and you can move to Juneau!

 

Why should I have to move to San Diego because I appreciate our bright, sunny, long summer days that are an inherent part of this climate??      :lol:

 

I don't think that's what he likes.  He seems to like 4 distinct seasons--and he likes interesting weather--which includes heavy rain, wind, and snow--variable conditions which occur during fall and winter months.  I like the same kind of anomolies--not 60 and sun in December/January.

 

I figured if you like the warm sun on a daily basis, San Diego is the place to be.  Go inland 10 miles from there, and you get 90.  Go off the coast 2 miles, and you have the marine layer with fog. 

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I don't think that's what he likes.  He seems to like 4 distinct seasons--and he likes interesting weather--which includes heavy rain, wind, and snow--variable conditions which occur during fall and winter months.  I like the same kind of anomolies--not 60 and sun in December/January.

 

I figured if you like the warm sun on a daily basis, San Diego is the place to be.  Go inland 10 miles from there, and you get 90.  Go off the coast 2 miles, and you have the marine layer with fog. 

 

 

Dude... I lived in San Diego for 12 years.   I know the deal.

 

FOLLOW ALONG... Fred said he does not like the fact that days are getting longer and brighter and he said its all downhill until October.     I said that I DO like seasons here.    THE NORMAL SEASONS OF THE PNW.   

 

Why do i have to to move to a place with no seasons and nothing but sun because I like our seasons here??   Short winter days and long, sunny summer days.  

 

You are either not reading or very dense.     People who like dark all year long should move to Juneau.   That is not normal here.   I will take our normal weather.   Looking forward to summer now!

 

(for the record... I am not angry but just have no idea what you are talking about and trying to be crystal clear for you)   :D

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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At this point there is nothing pointing to February being any better. At this point if I see any decent snow it will probably come later in March and early April. There were decent snow events up here in April 2003 and 2005 so hope springs eternal.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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