January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

The weak Nino is certainly west-based now. And the warmer than normal water off the West Coast is healthy as ever.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.1.26.2015.gif

Another long hot summer? Hopefully

[TT-SEA]

Another long hot summer? Hopefully

Hopefully!

[WS Snow]

Very jealous of the east-coast event.  Just curious, has the Seattle/Portland metro ever been issued a blizzard warning by the NWS?

[Jesse]

Was very soupy up here early this morning but has since quickly burned off and it does indeed look like a May morning as I look out the window from my desk at work. Looking forward to a sunny and warm day!

 

Then bring on winter the first few weeks of February! But after that I would love nothing more than a drier and warmer than normal March thru October!

The mountains could really use a snowy March/April.

 

You would think the last couple years of near constant record breaking above average temps would be enough for some people.

[HighlandExperience]

The mountains could really use a snowy March/April.

 

You would think the last couple years of near constant record breaking above average temps would be enough for some people.

 

Totally agree with you Jesse.

 

Having spent quite a bit of time in the mountains recently. Some locations in the mountains look more like a typical June, than the middle of winter. It is quite sad how terrible the last two seasons have been up here.

 

Looking at the Hurricane Ridge cam, you would think it was July or something.

[MossMan]

Very jealous of the east-coast event.  Just curious, has the Seattle/Portland metro ever been issued a blizzard warning by the NWS?

Not sure about Seattle, but I remember my area of Northern Snohomish County being under a Blizzard Warning the night of Dec 28th 1996...and it verifying nicely!

[TT-SEA]

Totally agree with you Jesse.

 

Having spent quite a bit of time in the mountains recently. Some locations in the mountains look more like a typical June, than the middle of winter. It is quite sad how terrible the last two seasons have been up here.

 

Looking at the Hurricane Ridge cam, you would think it was July or something.

 

A snowy February - April will be fine... and long, warm summer would also be welcome again.   

[Front Ranger]

Yup I am downtown right now. Beautiful morning here. Feels like May.

 

Hard to believe the NE is going to get slammed with snow, while we are sitting with Spring like temps.

Sadly, that's often how it works.

[MossMan]

The mountains could really use a snowy March/April.

 

You would think the last couple years of near constant record breaking above average temps would be enough for some people.

Hopefully this year will mimic last February where mountain snowpack went from extremely low to average in just a matter of a few weeks.  

[Jesse]

Hopefully this year will mimic last February where mountain snowpack went from extremely low to average in just a matter of a few weeks.

Not looking good at this point. That was a pretty anomalous progression that is not likely to be repeated.

 

First week of February is looking warm and wet right now.

[stuffradio]

Hour 384 alert.

[FroYoBro]

Still under some fog and 43 degrees. The impending blizzard canceled the Blazers-Nets game that was going to happen tonight. This January really is a weather disaster. 

[Timmy]

fog is thicker in the valley than yesterday,  I doubt it burns off today.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Hour 384 alert.

Buwahahahahahaha!!!   <_>

[Front Ranger]

The mountains could really use a snowy March/April.

 

You would think the last couple years of near constant record breaking above average temps would be enough for some people.

 

The last year was very warm, but saying the last couple years is stretching it a bit.

 

 

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Not looking good at this point. That was a pretty anomalous progression that is not likely to be repeated.

 

First week of February is looking warm and wet right now.

 

Could say the same thing about this January after last January, though...

[Front Ranger]

Wildly different scenarios in the models right now past day 4. Latest GEM shows a potential lowland snow pattern from day 7 on.

 

As is typical when the pattern is in flux...models be strugglin.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The last year was very warm, but saying the last couple years is stretching it a bit.

 

 

AnnDec14TDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

AnnDec13TDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

I would think of 2013 as having a very warm summer, but definitely don't think of it as a torch year and that map bears it out. January and December 2013 were anomalously BELOW average. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

October 2013 - February 2014 was a fairly cool 5 month period with two major arctic outbreaks and some good radiational cooling periods in November and January. The epic torch didn't begin in earnest until March 2014.

[antipex]

GFS insists on moist SW flow with lots of mild ran in about 7 days, continuing the pattern this past fall and winter of generally dry weather interrupted every week or so by heavy rain. ECMWF is in fairly good agreement.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The pattern shown on the Canadian isn't really that interesting. It will easily move toward the GFS/EURO solution in the coming days.

[Jesse]

October 2013 - February 2014 was a fairly cool 5 month period with two major arctic outbreaks and some good radiational cooling periods in November and January. The epic torch didn't begin in earnest until March 2014.

True. February thru mid-September 2013 were pretty warm though. And even January 2013 was an upper level torch for a good deal of the time.

[TT-SEA]

The pattern shown on the Canadian isn't really that interesting. It will easily move toward the GFS/EURO solution in the coming days.

Or not... sometimes it's right when the other models disagree.

[Front Ranger]

True. February thru mid-September 2013 were pretty warm though. And even January 2013 was an upper level torch for a good deal of the time.

 

It was a ridgy month, at least in the middle, but Government Camp was right around their long term average for temps that month, which tells you it really wasn't an upper level torch. It was actually cooler than Jan 2009, 2011, and 2012.

 

Certainly nothing like Jan 2014 and 2015, as far as upper level torchiness goes.

[Front Ranger]

The pattern shown on the Canadian isn't really that interesting. It will easily move toward the GFS/EURO solution in the coming days.

 

Even the GFS and Euro have some significant disagreement in how the pattern will evolve.

[wx_statman]

The last year was very warm, but saying the last couple years is stretching it a bit.

 

 

AnnDec14TDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

AnnDec13TDeptWRCC-NW.png

2013 had its fair share of torching. Saying the last couple years torched isn't out of line IMO.

[wx_statman]

It was a ridgy month, at least in the middle, but Government Camp was right around their long term average for temps that month, which tells you it really wasn't an upper level torch. It was actually cooler than Jan 2009, 2011, and 2012.

 

Certainly nothing like Jan 2014 and 2015, as far as upper level torchiness goes.

G Camp hit 63 in January 2013.

[HighlandExperience]

We may never see snow again.

 

The December 2014 globally-averaged temperature across land and ocean surfaces was 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.2°C (54.0°F), the highest on record for December since records began in 1880, surpassing the previous record set in 2006 by 0.02°C (0.04°F).

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/12

[Deweydog]

We may never see snow again.

 

The December 2014 globally-averaged temperature across land and ocean surfaces was 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.2°C (54.0°F), the highest on record for December since records began in 1880, surpassing the previous record set in 2006 by 0.02°C (0.04°F).

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/12

Pretty much what you'd expect in what is our 14th year of global cooling.

[TT-SEA]

I think the NWS is going to bust big on temps tomorrow for the Seattle area. The offshore flow is so weak that even Troutdale is calm right now. I have no idea how they think it's going to mix out tomorrow.

 

 

Once again... bashing the NWS and then you end up being wrong.   62 and sunny at the UW... 67 degrees here.

 

http://s17.postimg.org/bghvf3l0u/sea2.jpg

[luvssnow_spokane]

Or not... sometimes it's right when the other models disagree.

You could say that about any model... 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Even the GFS and Euro have some significant disagreement in how the pattern will evolve.

warm, wet and wild... And I am not talking about your girlfriend.

[Front Ranger]

2013 had its fair share of torching. Saying the last couple years torched isn't out of line IMO.

As the map shows, 2013 was near normal overall. It had some warm periods and some cool periods, but it wasn't a torchy year. It's just fact, calling a spade a spade. 2014 was a very warm year. 2013 was near normal.

 

Now, if you were just talking summer, that's different. But that's not what he said.

[TT-SEA]

You could say that about any model... 

 

True... but I have pointed out several times when the Canadian looks very different and everyone mocks it for being an inferior model and then it ends up being the first model to start a trend.

[Front Ranger]

G Camp hit 63 in January 2013.

 

Sure. Didn't make it an upper level torch that month.  Unlike this January and last, which have been exactly that. 2013 was far different, the numbers don't lie.

 

Saying a year or month torched indicates that it was warm on average, not just that there was some torching in there somewhere.

[Deweydog]

Sure. Didn't make it an upper level torch that month. Unlike this January and last, which have been exactly that. 2013 was far different, the numbers don't lie.

Weren't you using a single day to "counter" some overall torch comments several days ago?

[Front Ranger]

Weren't you using a single day to "counter" some overall torch comments several days ago?

 

No. I was pointing out that below 0C 850s were occurring at a time when someone said it seemed impossible to get them. It was ironic

 

I never claimed this month was cool, or that 850s had been cool overall.

[luvssnow_spokane]

True... but I have pointed out several times when the Canadian looks very different and everyone mocks it for being an inferior model and then it ends up being the first model to start a trend.I am 

I could be remembering wrong seems like the Canadian has been playing catch more this winter than what you are implying but again I could be remembering incorrectly.  That being said I really wish I was on the east coast today.

[richard mann]

Wildly different scenarios in the models right now past day 4. Latest GEM shows a potential lowland snow pattern from day 7 on.

 

As is typical when the pattern is in flux...models be strugglin.

 

.. My own estimation is that post the 30th, with a general transition in and where looking at colder air's main both latitudinal and more longitudinal main both movement and distribution, "the models" will move toward better agreement. 

[Front Ranger]

warm, wet and wild... And I am not talking about your girlfriend.

 

The Euro is actually not warm past day 7. And has some very cold air not too far away.