January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[wx_statman]

The map disagrees with you. It's weird that you're trying to argue with a map.

 

That map is your pet, not mine.

 

Let me say it again - 2013 was mostly warm from the end of January to the last half of September. That's a pretty significant part of the year. In combination with 2014 (and now January 2015), its not entirely unfair to say that the last two years have been torchy. That was the original point, remember?

[Jesse]

Hmm. Well, maybe you should have brought it up in December.

 

But yeah....you pretty much did point to recent warm anomalies in a certain month, in a certain region, to support global warming. I think you can see why dewey and I don't agree with you there.

 

Do you think it's the main factor for the warmth this month? Honest question.

 

No. I think it certainly is a factor, though.

 

Although obviously one month does not a trend make. But we've seen an AWFUL lot of warm months the last 2-3 decades....

 

I'm sure it's just a coincidence. Just like my transformation into Al Gore Jr after a couple years of virtually non-stop torching IMBY/the globe.

[Front Ranger]

That map is your pet, not mine.

 

Let me say it again - 2013 was mostly warm from the end of January to the last half of September. That's a pretty significant part of the year. In combination with 2014, its not entirely unfair to say that the last two years have been torchy. That was the original point, remember?

 

Ok, and it's not entirely unfair to point out that as a whole, 2013 was quite close to normal for the PNW.

 

Fair enough?

[Deweydog]

Careful...certain posters...may not be amused.

If you can't laugh at yourself...

[Front Ranger]

No. I think it certainly is a factor, though.

 

Although obviously one month does not a trend make. But we've seen an AWFUL lot of warm months the last 2-3 decades....

 

I'm sure it's just a coincidence. Just like my transformation into Al Gore Jr after a couple years of virtually non-stop torching IMBY/the globe.

 

Print this out and put it up on your wall. It shall give you hope and sustain you through the even the torchiest of Januaries.

 

 

 

[Jesse]

Ok, and it's not entirely unfair to point out that as a whole, 2013 was quite close to normal for the PNW.

 

Fair enough?

 

Not to butt in, but you're cherry picking again. This is what you do and this is why I have a problem taking you seriously on this sort of thing.

 

I said the last two years have been torchy overall. I'm sure a composite map of 2013 and 2014 would prove this to be so. I don't understand why on earth you are so obsessed with a somewhat arbitrary portion of that two year period being close to average in spots. Doesn't take away from the fact that the last two years have been above average as a whole.

[Front Ranger]

If you can't laugh at yourself...

 

You might be a lawyer?

[Front Ranger]

Not to but in, but you're cherry picking again. This is what you do and this is why I have a problem taking you seriously on this sort of thing.

 

I said the last two years have been torchy overall. I'm sure a composite map of 2013 and 2014 would prove this to be so. I don't understand why on earth you are so obsessed with a somewhat arbitrary portion of that two year period being close to average in spots. Doesn't take away from the fact that the last two years have been above average as a whole.

 

For the sake of accuracy...you said "non-stop torching". Before that, "the last couple years of near constant record breaking above average temps."

[wx_statman]

Looking around the region -

 

OLM just missed their monthly record today with 63 degrees. Record is 64 on 1-19-2005.

 

Monthly records of 68 at Madras and 58 at Pullman today. 

[Jesse]

Print this out and put it up on your wall. It shall give you hope and sustain you through the even the torchiest of Januaries.

 

 

HOPE.png

 

Mmmm...what kind this time?

 

Bing?

 

Rainier?

[wx_statman]

Ok, and it's not entirely unfair to point out that as a whole, 2013 was quite close to normal for the PNW.

 

Fair enough?

 

Agreed! Map don't lie.

 

But its misleading to look at that map and call 2013 close to normal, even though the final numbers landed there. Because a good chunk of the year was pretty warm.

[Jesse]

For the sake of accuracy...you said "non-stop torching". Before that, "the last couple years of near constant record breaking above average temps."

 

You're making a fool of yourself at this point.

[Front Ranger]

You're making a fool of yourself at this point.

 

 

You're the one who just said me choosing to show the first year of "two years of non-stop torching" was arbitrary. Let's not play this game.

[Deweydog]

You might be a lawyer?

I am!!!

[chinook]

Not sure the Willamette Valley will get out of the fog tomorrow or Wednesday.

[Jesse]

 

You're the one who just said me choosing to show the first year of "two years of non-stop torching" was arbitrary. Let's not play this game.

 

Not that it matters, since this is quickly becoming the kind of agonizing battle of semantics that I hate to even participate in, but I said virtually non-stop torching.

 

It's been a warm run, even though it took some breaks here and there. This is true from a surface perspective and even truer from an upper level perspective.

[Front Ranger]

Agreed! Map don't lie.

 

But its misleading to look at that map and call 2013 close to normal, even though the final numbers landed there. Because a good chunk of the year was pretty warm.

 

It was a calendar year. It's made up of averages. I didn't decide to cherry pick the starting point of January and the end point of December. Though there were torches to be found in 2013, there were obviously cold periods that offset them.

 

I think you're being just a bit nitpicky here. Let's just build on our agreement that "map don't lie" and see if we can't smoke some peace pipe.

[Deweydog]

Not sure the Willamette Valley will get out of the fog tomorrow or Wednesday.

Ask global warming.

[Front Ranger]

Not that it matters, since this is quickly becoming the kind of agonizing battle of semantics that I hate to even participate in, but I said virtually non-stop torching.

 

It's been a warm run, even though it took some breaks here and there. This is true from a surface perspective and even truer from an upper level perspective.

 

2014 was certainly a torchy year.

[Front Ranger]

Not sure the Willamette Valley will get out of the fog tomorrow or Wednesday.

 

Future generations looking at SLE numbers won't understand just how hard global warming was hitting right now.

[TT-SEA]

Double contrail on this gorgeous day...

 

[wx_statman]

It was a calendar year. It's made up of averages. I didn't decide to cherry pick the starting point of January and the end point of December. Though there were torches to be found in 2013, there were obviously cold periods that offset them.

 

I think you're being just a bit nitpicky here. Let's just build on our agreement that "map don't lie" and see if we can't smoke some peace pipe.

 

I don't smoke. I also don't agree with you. Its not unfair to say that the last two years have been torchy. It is what it is.

[Deweydog]

Double contrail on this gorgeous day...

 

You mean chemtrail!

[Jesse]

Ask global warming.

 

Global warming doesn't affect our inversion season, silly!

[Front Ranger]

I don't smoke. I also don't agree with you. Its not unfair to say that the last two years have been torchy. It is what it is.

 

I suggest you make your signature: "I don't agree with Front Ranger."

 

You'll never have to update it!

[BLI snowman]

Agreed! Map don't lie.

 

But its misleading to look at that map and call 2013 close to normal, even though the final numbers landed there. Because a good chunk of the year was pretty warm.

 

Ridgy, too. 

 

CA's drought coincides pretty directly with our upper level torchiness, which began in earnest in early 2013. 

 

Here's 2013's 500mb anomalies 

 

 

And 2014

 

 

By comparison, here's what 2012 looked like. Totally different and a slightly troughy year for us overall

 

[Front Ranger]

Ridgy, too. 

 

CA's drought coincides pretty directly with our upper level torchiness, which began in earnest in early 2013. 

 

Here's 2013's 500mb anomalies 

 

8ghBlXYlT7.png

 

And 2014

 

0Ti2bXY3zR.png

 

By comparison, here's what 2012 looked like. Totally different and a slightly troughy year for us overall

 

wImRnCqKdb.png

 

Yeah, there's no doubt that ridginess has dominated since Jan 2013. The main difference was that in 2013, the ridginess was centered more offshore, allowing cool air masses more often to slip down on the east side of the ridging...while in 2014, the ridging tended to be more directly over the west coast, as your map shows.

 

Both are dry patterns for CA.

[wx_statman]

I suggest you make your signature: "I don't agree with Front Ranger."

 

You'll never have to update it!

 

You're deflecting.

 

Here are OLM's monthly departures from January 2013 to January 2015:

 

JAN 2013: -3.3

FEB 2013: +0.5

MAR 2013: +0.6

APR 2013: -0.1

MAY 2013: +1.4

JUN 2013: +2.0

JUL 2013: +0.3

AUG 2013: +1.8

SEP 2013: +2.0

OCT 2013: -2.0

NOV 2013: -1.0

DEC 2013: -2.6

JAN 2014: +0.6

FEB 2014: -2.7

MAR 2014: +1.7

APR 2014: +1.3

MAY 2014: +1.7

JUN 2014: +0.5

JUL 2014: +2.9

AUG 2014: +2.7

SEP 2014: +2.2

OCT 2014: +5.5

NOV 2014: -0.2

DEC 2014: +3.4

JAN 2015: +2.9 (so far)

[Deweydog]

Are the red ones warm?

[Front Ranger]

You're deflecting.

 

Here are OLM's monthly departures from January 2013 to January 2015:

 

JAN 2013: -3.3

FEB 2013: +0.5

MAR 2013: +0.6

APR 2013: -0.1

MAY 2013: +1.4

JUN 2013: +2.0

JUL 2013: +0.3

AUG 2013: +1.8

SEP 2013: +2.0

OCT 2013: -2.0

NOV 2013: -1.0

DEC 2013: -2.6

 

Good lord, you're really itching for something, aren't you? 

 

Looks like 5/12 months in 2013 were below normal. That's almost half.

 

The greatest monthly anomaly was -3.3 in January. The yearly anomaly was -.03. Can't get much closer to normal than that. Once again, thank you for using the greatest station known to man.

 

2014 was certainly torchy!

[Parksvillewx]

iFred is going to have an aneurysm when he comes on here tonight.

[Jesse]

iFred is going to have an aneurysm when he comes on here tonight.

Heaven forbid the forum see some activity.

[Front Ranger]

iFred is going to have an aneurysm when he comes on here tonight.

 

Why? There were a couple mods on here earlier, I think one semi-insulting post got deleted. Other than that, it's been mostly just lively discussion and silliness.

 

Sometimes I wonder if some of you take what goes on here a lot more seriously than it's meant. I mean, global warming IS pretty darn serious, but doesn't mean we can't joke about it or death ridges.

[Parksvillewx]

Heaven forbid the forum see some activity.

 

True.

 

I don't know about others but I come to the Jan 2015 observations thread to read about Jan 2015 observations, not back and fourth banter...call me crazy I guess.

[Deweydog]

I think we needed whiner thread. Probably a little late considering February is progged to be a face-melter.

[Front Ranger]

True.

 

I don't know about others but I come to the Jan 2015 observations thread to read about Jan 2015 observations, not back and fourth banter...call me crazy I guess.

 

When there's a lack of interesting weather/observations, the forum tends to either be dead or have mostly banter.

 

You're not crazy. Just Canadian.

 

 

 

I'm sorry, I'm sorry...it's really hard for me to resist. I love Canadians. 

[BLI snowman]

True.

 

I don't know about others but I come to the Jan 2015 observations thread to read about Jan 2015 observations, not back and fourth banter...call me crazy I guess.

 

Really?

 

I mean, the weather has been terrifyingly dull recently and there's been plenty of discussion about the record warm temps we've been seeing the last few days. Out of curiosity, what more do you want to see discussed? 

 

I'd just be happy that we're (mostly) keeping a pretty even-keeled perspective on this stretch and we're (mostly) not seeing a bunch of whiny woe-is-me BS.

[bainbridgekid]

I think we needed whiner thread. Probably a little late considering February is progged to be a face-melter.

That warm, huh?

[Deweydog]

True.

 

I don't know about others but I come to the Jan 2015 observations thread to read about Jan 2015 observations, not back and fourth banter...call me crazy I guess.

NWS has a great page full of observations and almost no op/ed whatsoever.

[Deweydog]

That warm, huh?

Ice burns!