January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[richard mann]

That's why I have pushed myself to learn as much as possible regarding what I feel is one of the most underated tools in medium-long range forecasting. I got sick of depending solely on what the models were advertising, only to have them flip flop every day. Knowing the expected overall regime configuration before the models even show it is a great feeling. A feeling you'll never have the opportunity to experience if you continue to mock everyone.

 

Could you do me a favor. And perhaps say something to this effect, tacked into the thread that I've initiated (here in the main "The West" Section.) toward serving as a general resource, entitled "Model 'Pros' and 'Cons'". ? 

 

— Perhaps expanding on what you've suggested only more here above. What you're referring to here more specifically.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

For me going to it just isn't the same as having it at home though.

i agree. But as I get my cabin more and more done it's starting to feel like another home. I am amazed how good that area holds the cold.

[richard mann]

Yeah, but in the end you still end up riding the models like everyone else...because they actually show the details that matter to weenies.

 

Mark it. I stay away from them. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

My goal is to get a place where it snows regularly and live there.  Somewhere with much less rain, much more sun, a lot more cold, and a lot more snow sounds pretty inviting.  My wife and I are kicking around the idea of moving to Missoula.

 

 

How about Barrow?

[HighlandExperience]

Eugene had 36 90+ maximums in 2014. Absolutely blew away their old record of 31.

 

Global Warming combined with our exit from the LIA has ruined our climate.

 

Sometimes it feels like we will never truly experience a great winter again. 

[Front Ranger]

You are definitely back in old form.

 

Your analogy is bad.

 

Lighten up, big guy.

[Deweydog]

Lighten up, big guy.

Internal monologues can be fruitful. I encourage you to continue said endeavours.

[HighlandExperience]

Hope no one is planning to go to the pass today. It is getting nuked up there. 

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/sc/090VC04680.jpg

 

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/sc/090VC05200.jpg

[Front Ranger]

My goal is to get a place where it snows regularly and live there.  Somewhere with much less rain, much more sun, a lot more cold, and a lot more snow sounds pretty inviting.  My wife and I are kicking around the idea of moving to Missoula. 

 

Kalispell? Easily better than Missoula, in my opinion.

[Jesse]

Good advice for weather and for life. If its completely out of your control, why let it bother you?

That's the ultimate conclusion I am coming to with lots of things.

[richard mann]

The consistent warmth last year was remarkable. The fact that we did it without any top-tier airmasses during the warm season made it even more remarkable, IMO.

 

I'm looking at the idea sort of as .. what heat wise, didn't continued to develop Nino wise, has been focused more Northwest, more broadly speaking. 

 

— This idea relative to a more basic theory that I'm looking at that while the poles / higher latitudes N/S have been taking on more cold (more multi-decadal timeframe.), nearer to the equator has been warming. .. (incidental mention.)

[Guest Winterdog]

AhOh. Bifurcation of the PV?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Where exactly is your cabin again? I can't remember.

I want to be up in the Metaline Falls area. Looks sparsely populated. I am tired of people and traffic, would be nice to have a snowy get away!

15 miles north west of republic. 10 miles from canada. 3600 ft

[MossMan]

That's the ultimate conclusion I am coming to with lots of things.

Things changing for you now that you are engaged?

[MossMan]

Looks interesting traffic wise at Stevens as well.

[HighlandExperience]

Looks interesting traffic wise at Stevens as well.

 

My friend just drove across Hwy 2. Said there were lots of accidents. Looks bad out there.. 

[MikeBC]

My area ended up getting about 2.5" of snow. Now, its freezing rain. The ice is building on power lines, trees, and rails. This event is ok especially in the Fraser Valley. There is a picture of iclies on the cam about 10 minutes north of here. That area got a bit less of snow than here but the current condition is about the same.

 

 

http://images.drivebc.ca/bchighwaycam/pub/cameras/537.jpg

[Deweydog]

My friend just drove across Hwy 2. Said there were lots of accidents. Looks bad out there..

Probably caught a lot of people off guard. This is pretty unusual for early January, moreso what you'd expect starting about early March or so.

[ShawniganLake]

Good example of how delicate these weak outflow events are. Blaine, Vancouver, and Bellingham get 34 degree rain while a few miles away at the same elevation there's snow.

 

Definitely an underperformer for B.C. folks though. I thought more of V.I. and the Vancouver metro would score accumulations.

Yep, 24hrs ago I thought I would be waking up to snow this morning. In reality it wasn't even close. Not a flake. Even places in the 1000-1500ft range had light to even no accumulation. The flow never really went easterly here I guess, no cold air damming.

[Jesse]

Things changing for you now that you are engaged?

Just realizing there are lots of things that are more important than worrying whether the weather is above or below average.

[MossMan]

Looks like some intense rainfall down around Olympia and on the east side of the Olympics. High and dry here as I am currently being shadowed.

 

Also temp has been going up a degree per hour most of the day, started out at 35, now up to 44.

[snow_wizard]

Kalispell? Easily better than Missoula, in my opinion.

 

Maybe...the requirements for my wife are a big enough city to have everything you need close at hand and somewhere that it doesn't take too long to drive to Seattle.  Missoula is right on I-90 so it's handy.  Even though Missoula is semi arid it gets over 40 inches of snow a year and it's quite cold in the winter.

[snow_wizard]

Looks interesting traffic wise at Stevens as well.

 

Such a bummer most of the snow will be wiped out again.

[Phil]

My goal is to get a place where it snows regularly and live there. Somewhere with much less rain, much more sun, a lot more cold, and a lot more snow sounds pretty inviting. My wife and I are kicking around the idea of moving to Missoula.

 

Meh, I'd just get out of the PNW..marine climates suck. Move to Maine or New Hampshire..both are much cheaper places to live..and their snowfall averages are actually increasing.

[Jesse]

Meh, I'd just get out of the PNW..marine climates suck. Move to Maine or New Hampshire..both are much cheaper places to live..and their snowfall averages are actually increasing.

Missoula doesn't have a marine climate.

 

The winters there are great and it definitely beats moving across the country, especially for someone who still has ties in the Seattle area.

 

Missoula to Seattle is a very doable day's drive.

 

Also Montana's scenery kicks Maine and New Hampshire around the block. They have real mountains.

[MossMan]

Meh, I'd just get out of the PNW..marine climates suck. Move to Maine or New Hampshire..both are much cheaper places to live..and their snowfall averages are actually increasing.

I would easily pick Montana over the east coast, but that's just me.

[Jesse]

Such a bummer most of the snow will be wiped out again.

 

That's what happens when we are incapable of staying in a cold pattern for more than 7-10 days.

 

The warm intrusions the past year or so have all been ridiculously aggressive.

[snow_wizard]

Meh, I'd just get out of the PNW..marine climates suck. Move to Maine or New Hampshire..both are much cheaper places to live..and their snowfall averages are actually increasing.

 

Just not doable with the over situation I have.  Besides...the average temp in Missoula in January is 22 degrees.  Colder than the vast majority of the eastern half of the country.

[snow_wizard]

Just realizing there are lots of things that are more important than worrying whether the weather is above or below average.

 

Easy to say, but hard to practice...

[snow_wizard]

The 18z continues to show the possibility of a cool and somewhat active pattern later in the month.  A combination we have had a real hard time coming up with this season.

[Weather101]

Cowboys for Super Bowl!

 

Dissapointing day today weather wise tho

[Phil]

Just not doable with the over situation I have. Besides...the average temp in Missoula in January is 22 degrees. Colder than the vast majority of the eastern half of the country.

Ah, sorry to hear that.

 

It's mostly environmental preference I guess. I love the scenery out west, but there's just not enough in the way of large scale dynamics and summer convection to satisfy me. I'm moving west mostly because my wife wants to, so we're looking at Leadville CO.

 

As far as winters go, the upper NE USA is hard to beat in terms of storm-size and cold air.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z continues to show the possibility of a cool and somewhat active pattern later in the month.  A combination we have had a real hard time coming up with this season.

 

Its a pattern that has largely been absent the past 3 winters save about 10 days in December 2012. 

[MossMan]

Cowboys for Super Bowl!

Dissapointing day today weather wise tho

They did not look stellar today, if it wasn't for the refs helping them out I don't think they would have won that game.

[Weather101]

They did not look stellar today, if it wasn't for the refs helping them out I don't think they would have won that game.

I agree, Romo was a bit off after a great season, and Dez Bryant was mainly shut down. I'm very nervous for the Greenbay game. I believe Dallas is the only team that COULD beat Seattle. Not saying they will but those 2 teams match up good. But Green Bay will most likely win.

[BLI snowman]

Missoula doesn't have a marine climate.

 

The winters there are great and it definitely beats moving across the country, especially for someone who still has ties in the Seattle area.

 

Missoula to Seattle is a very doable day's drive.

 

Also Montana's scenery kicks Maine and New Hampshire around the block. They have real mountains.

 

Sandpoint has a pretty close to ideal climate IMO. Gorgeous area, too

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?id8137

[HighlandExperience]

The 18z continues to show the possibility of a cool and somewhat active pattern later in the month.  A combination we have had a real hard time coming up with this season.

 

That would be awesome. Seems almost alien to have such a pattern in recent winters. 

[TT-SEA]

That would be awesome. Seems almost alien to have such a pattern in recent winters. 

 

 

No doubt it will arrive in March and April.

[HighlandExperience]

No doubt it will arrive in March and April.

 

Right on que that happens every season recently. I bet March/April bring huge mountain snows. 

 

Pretty annoying. 

[bainbridgekid]

I guess a herd of elk swam across the Columbia River yesterday near Astoria.