January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

If the GFS 18Z has anything to do with it the east coast will be having at least 3 arctic surges or events through the 21st of the month. Two of which have 850's between -20C and -30C. We start shaking in anticipation if the 850's look to get past-10C. I don't think any of our "blasts" topped -10C in Seattle this winter. I guess you gotta take what you can get.

 

First time realizing the east gets much colder air masses with greater regularity than the west coast during the cold season?  

 

#drainthepacific

[bainbridgekid]

Yeah its only 36 in Lynden, though I don't believe they have made it out of the 30's through the duration of this event. Figured the cold air would have been scoured out up there by now.

These weak Fraser outflow situations are fascinating to me.

 

It's in the mid 40's North of the outflow in Vancouver, BC, but in the mid 30's around North Bellingham. It's also 45 degrees at WWU which is only about 6 miles from BLI but is blocked from the outflow by some hills to their Northeast and in the low 50's just a few miles South of Bellingham.

 

[stuffradio]

These weak Fraser outflow situations are fascinating to me.

 

It's in the mid 40's North of the outflow in Vancouver, BC, but in the mid 30's around North Bellingham. It's also 45 degrees at WWU which is only about 6 miles from BLI but is blocked from the outflow by some hills to their Northeast and in the low 50's just a few miles South of Bellingham.

 

Screenshot 2015-01-05 at 3.30.52 PM.png

I almost see my weather station in that map.

[Bryant]

I'm not going to pull up your posts from last week..we all know what you said. We also know that the NAM flip will take longer to occur due to the elasticity of the PV which remained stubbornly barotropic up until the wave-1 response. We went over this a week ago, so I'm not sure why you're bringing this up now.

 

That said, we'll attempt at a -NAO during the 3rd or 4th week this month. It may or may not work out.

 

I don't see it happening personally. MJO pushing out over the western Pacific will trigger the beginning of a -NAO/Aleutian Low, but the wave will most likely die off around phases 6/7 once again, causing it to be short lived. We've seen it multiple times already this winter from a tropical forcing standpoint, and it doesn't appear to be any different than the previous event. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/EmIHdBL.gif

[Phil]

I don't see it happening personally. MJO pushing out over the western Pacific will trigger the beginning of a -NAO/Aleutian Low, but the wave will most likely die off around phases 6/7 once again, causing it to be short lived. We've seen it multiple times already this winter from a tropical forcing standpoint, and it doesn't appear to be any different than the previous event.

 

http://i.imgur.com/EmIHdBL.gif

True, but the question is, will longer wavelengths allow subsequent breaking (behind the Aleutian low) to self-sustain without the need for tropical forcing? We saw something similar in December of 2010.

 

The -QBO is going to prevent the MJO from progressing too far beyond the dateline until a legitimate SSW/PV breakdown can reorganize the mass transfer fields. Instead, any MJO wave that can make it that far will divide, w/ higher frequency KKCW propagations outside the MJO domain.

[Bryant]

True, but the question is, will longer wavelengths allow subsequent breaking (behind the Aleutian low) to self-sustain without the need for tropical forcing? We saw something similar in December of 2010.

 

The -QBO is going to prevent the MJO from progressing too far beyond the dateline until a legitimate SSW/PV breakdown can reorganize the mass transfer fields. Instead, any MJO wave that can make it that far will divide, w/ higher frequency KKCW propagations outside the MJO domain.

 

Guess it's a wait and see game. Seems to me that the stubborn PV this winter can be directly correlated with the -QBO/La Nina'ish WC

[Guest Winterdog]

First time realizing the east gets much colder air masses with greater regularity than the west coast during the cold season?  

 

#drainthepacific

There I go again, making a statement that gets me caught in the talons of the greatest wit this forum has ever seen. When will I ever learn?

[BLI snowman]

Interesting to see BLI in the mid-upper 30's all day after being in the low 50's all evening yesterday.

 

Lots of low level cold in the Fraser River Valley still. Hope has been below freezing all day and just changed over to rain it looks like. Missed a big outflow induced snowstorm here by 100 miles or so. 

[MossMan]

Lots of low level cold in the Fraser River Valley still. Hope has been below freezing all day and just changed over to rain it looks like. Missed a big outflow induced snowstorm here by 100 miles or so.

So sad when things are so close to being great. Oh well, Febuary!

[BLI snowman]

So sad when things are so close to being great. Oh well, Febuary!

 

Yeah, this was probably our best shot for something really worthwhile this winter.

[Sometimesdylan]

http://i.imgur.com/cesrQjC.png

 

Predicted Snow levels for here on Thurs. Pretty crazy how Angoon and southward will have a snow level in the 5000+ range while Juneau northward will be fairly close to sea level or at sea level... 

 

You can def see how places like Gustavus (709), Juneau (754) and Hyder ( 0 ft -- middle right) all benefit from outflow winds.

[snow_wizard]

It's funny, though. 95% of the time, that climate was pretty much the same as what we have now. For people coming from another climate, there would be hardly any noticeable difference. There were still the rampant Vitamin D deficiencies back then that Tim makes us all aware of now.

 

It's just that other 5% people want more of What you saw in Dec 2008 was still better than 80% of the winters from 1940-70. There were plenty of disappointing winters back then, too, just not as many.

 

All percentages are rough. But you get the point.

 

 

I totally disagree.  It was colder in all parts of the year in the 1946 to 1975 period than what we have seen recently.  No way to say people wouldn't notice the difference between 1955 and 2014.

[GHweatherChris]

I totally disagree.  It was colder in all parts of the year in the 1946 to 1975 period than what we have seen recently.  No way to say people wouldn't notice the difference between 1955 and 2014.

I wasn't alive in 1955 though, so I have nothing to compare it too and I would say I wouldn't notice a difference, impossible to say that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tell you what. I noticed the difference between spring/summer 2012 and spring/summer 2014.

[Jesse]

I totally disagree.  It was colder in all parts of the year in the 1946 to 1975 period than what we have seen recently.  No way to say people wouldn't notice the difference between 1955 and 2014.

 

I would have to agree. Pretty noticeable difference between the last cold phase and the past few decades.

[Skagit Weather]

Storm total of 2.87" here, of which about 2.8" fell in 24 hours and 2.3" fell in 12 hours. Probably the best rain event here since 2006 if not earlier. Also first time I have recorded two consecutive days with precipitation greater than an inch. Many of the fields are flooded around here and I talked to quite a few people whose garages were flooded. I can't imagine what another 2-4" would do.

[GHweatherChris]

Storm total of 2.87" here, of which about 2.8" fell in 24 hours and 2.3" fell in 12 hours. Probably the best rain event here since 2006 if not earlier. Also first time I have recorded two consecutive days with precipitation greater than an inch. Many of the fields are flooded around here and I talked to quite a few people whose garages were flooded. I can't imagine what another 2-4" would do.

Look at the pictures from Aberdeen and Hoquiam, thats what happened with 6-8 inches of rain.

[stuffradio]

Lots of low level cold in the Fraser River Valley still. Hope has been below freezing all day and just changed over to rain it looks like. Missed a big outflow induced snowstorm here by 100 miles or so. 

 

Missing by 100 miles is better than missing by 40 km. It hurts much more when you're literally right beside the event and nothing happens.

[stuffradio]

Tell you what. I noticed the difference between spring/summer 2012 and spring/summer 2014.

Summer of 2012 was pretty good still. The summer of 2011 was pretty horrid. There was a lot of clouds with rain from time to time.

[stuffradio]

Storm total of 2.87" here, of which about 2.8" fell in 24 hours and 2.3" fell in 12 hours. Probably the best rain event here since 2006 if not earlier. Also first time I have recorded two consecutive days with precipitation greater than an inch. Many of the fields are flooded around here and I talked to quite a few people whose garages were flooded. I can't imagine what another 2-4" would do.

Storm total of at least 4" here since Saturday some time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Missing by 100 miles is better than missing by 40 km. It hurts much more when you're literally right beside the event and nothing happens.

 

Try December 11, 2000. Got a dusting which melted in 45 minutes while the Salem/Keizer area 10 miles away had a solid 2-4" of snow. 

 

January 1998 was probably the worst I can remember. Nothing, but major snow event about 20-30 miles north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Summer of 2012 was pretty good still. The summer of 2011 was pretty horrid. There was a lot of clouds with rain from time to time.

 

Yeah I just realized that would have been a better comparison. Would have been even more marked if I had lived up here in spring/summer 2011. I remember almost every time I came up here in the summer of 2011 when the house was under contract, but hadn't closed and there was a lingering marine layer. Neighbors also say there was non-sticking snow up here at some point in May 2011, which I believe because interestingly I actually had snow fall and not stick on the morning of May 22, 2014.

[Jesse]

Yeah I just realized that would have been a better comparison. Would have been even more marked if I had lived up here in spring/summer 2011. I remember almost every time I came up here in the summer of 2011 when the house was under contract, but hadn't closed and there was a lingering marine layer. Neighbors also say there was non-sticking snow up here at some point in May 2011, which I believe because interestingly I actually had snow fall and not stick on the morning of May 22, 2014.

 

November 2010-July 2011 was an awesome stretch of weather.

[stuffradio]

November 2010-July 2011 was an awesome stretch of weather.

Not for Tim and I.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How ridiculous was May 2011 at my location? 

 

Avg Max: 53.3 (-10.8)

Avg Min:  38.9 (-0.9)

Mean: 46.2      (-5.85)

Max: 66

Min: 28

 

There were only 5 days with 60+ highs in May 2011.

It was the coldest May on record at that location by over 2F. 

 

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=2011&month=5&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[SilverFallsAndrew]

November 2010-July 2011 was an awesome stretch of weather.

 

That winter/spring would have been tremendous up here. Late February through late April had tons of snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at April 2011, that was also the coldest April on record up here as well. Only April 2008 is even close, a monthly mean of 39.9 in April 2011. 

[bainbridgekid]

Snoqualmie Falls sure is raging right now. Looks seriously impressive.

 

http://www.king5.com/story/news/local/2015/01/05/skyking-flies-over-snoqualmie-falls/21309377/

[Skagit Weather]

Try December 11, 2000. Got a dusting which melted in 45 minutes while the Salem/Keizer area 10 miles away had a solid 2-4" of snow. 

 

January 1998 was probably the worst I can remember. Nothing, but major snow event about 20-30 miles north.

 

Try last February where I had 2" of snow and 1.5" of 33F rain while one mile north there was 12" of snow. That one hurt. You could literally look up the road (no elevation change) and see the snowfall rapidly increase. Of course I was lucky to get anything because another mile south there was nothing.

[Skagit Weather]

Look at the pictures from Aberdeen and Hoquiam, thats what happened with 6-8 inches of rain.

 

Yeah, but I am more speaking about here. The coast is a little bit more prepared for high rainfall totals and I am almost sure that 8" falling in Skagit Valley would lead to even worse flooding. 2" on the coast would have little effect as that happens at least a couple times of year. Of course then you have the Smethport, PA deluge of July 18, 1942 with 30.70" in 4.5 hours which is truly unimaginable.

[stuffradio]

Yeah, but I am more speaking about here. The coast is a little bit more prepared for high rainfall totals and I am almost sure that 8" falling in Skagit Valley would lead to even worse flooding. 2" on the coast would have little effect as that happens at least a couple times of year. Of course then you have the Smethport, PA deluge of July 18, 1942 with 30.70" in 4.5 hours which is truly unimaginable.

That's like a bucket constantly pouring water in one spot, not sprinkling. Crazy.

[TT-SEA]

Snoqualmie Falls sure is raging right now. Looks seriously impressive.

 

http://www.king5.com/story/news/local/2015/01/05/skyking-flies-over-snoqualmie-falls/21309377/

 

 

Just got word from the school district that the river level is now falling and no buildings were impacted... school is on time tomorrow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Try last February where I had 2" of snow and 1.5" of 33F rain while one mile north there was 12" of snow. That one hurt. You could literally look up the road (no elevation change) and see the snowfall rapidly increase. Of course I was lucky to get anything because another mile south there was nothing.

That would be painful.

[Front Ranger]

I totally disagree.  It was colder in all parts of the year in the 1946 to 1975 period than what we have seen recently.  No way to say people wouldn't notice the difference between 1955 and 2014.

 

On average, not by much. It was still a mild, maritime climate.

 

The differences seem big to you as a PNW weather nut, but from a climate perspective, they were rather small.

 

And comparing 2014 to 1955? How about 2008 to 1958?

[Skagit Weather]

 

That's like a bucket constantly pouring water in one spot, not sprinkling. Crazy.

 

http://www.schnabel-eng.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Extreme-Events.pdf

 

"At the location where the

observer recorded more than

30.8 inches in 4.75 hours,

maximum rainfall intensity was

estimated at about 10 inches

per hour, and reportedly there

was no “streaming” for that

rate. However, at other

locations such as around

Austin, the rainfall rate for very

short periods ranged from 15 to

nearly 40 inches per hour.

Eisenlohr hypothesized that for

such high rates of rainfall the

drops would be so close

together as to coalesce into

streams and sheets as a result

of mutual mass attraction,

possibly explaining the

phenomenon where very different

catches were recorded in containers

only a few feet apart."

[Skagit Weather]

According to some reports people were afraid that they would drown just going out in the rain it was raining so hard.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On average, not by much. It was still a mild, maritime climate.

 

The differences seem big to you as a PNW weather nut, but from a climate perspective, they were rather small.

 

And comparing 2014 to 1955? How about 2008 to 1958?

I doubt the normal person would notice much of a difference. Besides, 1955 was a cold year, and 2014 was warm.

[Front Ranger]

How ridiculous was May 2011 at my location? 

 

Avg Max: 53.3 (-10.8)

Avg Min:  38.9 (-0.9)

Mean: 46.2      (-5.85)

Max: 66

Min: 28

 

There were only 5 days with 60+ highs in May 2011.

It was the coldest May on record at that location by over 2F. 

 

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=2011&month=5&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

The climate got confused that month and thought it was 1955.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On average, not by much. It was still a mild, maritime climate.

 

The differences seem big to you as a PNW weather nut, but from a climate perspective, they were rather small.

 

And comparing 2014 to 1955? How about 2008 to 1958?

I doubt the normal person would notice much of a difference. Besides, 1955 was a cold year, and 2014 was warm.

[Front Ranger]

I doubt the normal person would notice much of a difference. Besides, 1955 was a cold year, and 2014 was warm.

 

I really don't like to use the term cherry-picking, but...