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January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest


Skagit Weather

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The one thing the average non weather nut in the Willamette valley will remember 5 years from now about weather in 2014 is the snow storm.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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That winter/spring would have been tremendous up here. Late February through late April had tons of snow.

Same here, we drove up in late March that year with a bunch of muddin rigs near where I live now but a little higher in elevation, there was about 2 inches at 1000' and near 40" of fresh snow at 1800'

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Yeah, but I am more speaking about here. The coast is a little bit more prepared for high rainfall totals and I am almost sure that 8" falling in Skagit Valley would lead to even worse flooding. 2" on the coast would have little effect as that happens at least a couple times of year. Of course then you have the Smethport, PA deluge of July 18, 1942 with 30.70" in 4.5 hours which is truly unimaginable.

 

I've read accounts of that. Truly incredible event. Apparently the rain was coming down in sheets like you would see in a waterfall.

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Looking at April 2011, that was also the coldest April on record up here as well. Only April 2008 is even close, a monthly mean of 39.9 in April 2011. 

 

Spring 2011 was ridiculous. A real throwback to the old days, when we stayed consistently chilly for months. Its a rare thing today.

 

I dug up an old post I made on Western in June 2011:

 

Warmest day of the year through May 31st, combined PDX/Downtown data back to 1874:

 

59.5 - 2011 (74/45 on May 20)

60.5 - 1899

61.0 - 1977

62.0 - 1991

62.0 - 1962

62.0 - 1950

62.5 - 1917

63.5 - 1893

64.0 - 1960

64.0 - 1877

64.5 - 2010

64.5 - 1965

 

 

First time in 137 years of continous observation that Portland failed to have a 60 degree average day through May 31st!          

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Try last February where I had 2" of snow and 1.5" of 33F rain while one mile north there was 12" of snow. That one hurt. You could literally look up the road (no elevation change) and see the snowfall rapidly increase. Of course I was lucky to get anything because another mile south there was nothing.

 

Reversal of February 23, 2011. Like a mirror image.

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I looked up the stats for Sandpoint, Kalispell, and Missoula. I'd definitely take Sandpoint.

 

All of them would be fine. 

 

Besides the lack of snow and cold in this climate the gloominess has really gotten to me the last few years.  I guess it's just so many years of it finally catching up with me.  All of the cities you have listed there have cold / snowy winters, lots of clear and cold days with snow on the ground, much better weather in the spring, and just enough summer thunderstorms to make it interesting.

 

I have really come to realize this climate isn't nearly as "pleasant" as many people try to pretend it is. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I doubt the normal person would notice much of a difference. Besides, 1955 was a cold year, and 2014 was warm.

 

Not even worth commenting on.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The models are incredibly boring right now.  Another wasted January.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The mega ridging that was showing up for next week is looking pretty watered down on the 0Z ECMWF/GFS; anything that pops up seems destined to be pretty short lived. There were some comments about the models locking on to ridging but being prone to bust in Arctic outbreaks. The thing is most people will notice a busted Arctic outbreak forecast, but there have been numerous LR winter forecasts showing a mega ridge right over us with 580dm heights only to end up with a mini-ridge or zonal flow and 560dm heights. A 20dm difference in heights can be the difference between a snowy blast, and a couple chilly days followed by drizzle and dying frontal systems in a trough. If the same sentiment were given to next week's ridging there would be cause for panic right now.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

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On average, not by much. It was still a mild, maritime climate.

 

The differences seem big to you as a PNW weather nut, but from a climate perspective, they were rather small.

 

And comparing 2014 to 1955? How about 2008 to 1958?

 

I simply don't agree.  Things happened back then that you just don't see now like widespread frost in July 1949, the much cooler summers that marked the last cold phase, and of course the much colder Januaries.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Good news is the upcoming +EPO regimen won't last as long as the last one..another tropical forcing retrograde on the way. Late January SSW/PV implosion? That's all we need to get the dominoes crashing..

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Wonder. .. what the more expanded version of this above would look like.

 

.. Less truncated, generally. With some amount of more specific reference where considering timeframe. Along with even perhaps as to just what "dominoes", are being looked at more specific. (Perhaps. ?) One can only imagine.

 

Maybe the related "broad-game" might work as a general study aide more introductory. (I'm thinking.)

 

"All" things considered, of course being the prognostication's obvious scope. Lending some clue as to its context. One day.

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Appears the worst is over for the Washington Cascades. The damage has been done, but at least the snowpack is still here at the lower elevations. I'm sure Oregon is much worse.

 

The temp at 6,800 feet on Crystal mountain is currently 48 degrees. Pretty lame for the first week of January... Thankfully 850mb temps will be dropping this week.

 

Two terrible ski seasons in a row. Hopeful that the rest of January going into Februray will be better.

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Appears the worst is over for the Washington Cascades. The damage has been done, but at least the snowpack is still here at the lower elevations. I'm sure Oregon is much worse.

 

The temp at 6,800 feet on Crystal mountain is currently 48 degrees. Pretty lame for the first week of January... Thankfully 850mb temps will be dropping this week.

 

Two terrible ski seasons in a row. Hopeful that the rest of January going into Februray will be better.

There wasn't much rain down here so it probably didn't hurt our pathetic snow pack to much.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Driving home from Redmond to Carnation tonight and Tolt Hill Rd was closed, Fall City - Carnation Rd was closed, HWY up to Snoqualmie/Snoqualmie Falls was closed, valley Rd was closed. Carnation is almost cut off if not for higher road through Duvall.

 

Finally went on a higher road through the valley and, although it was dark so I couldn't see how deep, there was standing water in places I've never seen before. Flooding homes I've never seen flooded before. I guess the morning will tell if its really as bad as it looked.

 

Yeah I know, worst flooding i've seen since 2011. Sadly I haven't been able to take any pics during the daytime. Pretty impressive. 

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We can dream about snow!

 

Just like I can dream about a cowboys and Seahawks rematch!

2013/2014 Winter season

Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th

Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th

Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th

Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th

Days below freezing: 5

Total Snowfall: 11 inches

Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches

Days With Snow: 3

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Pitchers and catchers report to camp in 6 weeks! Go M's Helps ease the pain of coming out of a winter with no snow (or probably no snow)

Sounds like they might be contenders this year!

And it will snow in February! Maybe even the last week of Jan!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Sounds like they might be contenders this year!

And it will snow in February! Maybe even the last week of Jan!

Snow and an ALCS in the same year? Holy Cow! Heck, snow and just making the playoffs in the same year would be something and then throw in another SB run by the Hawks. Snow might be the hardest of the three to get this year.
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-
More incidental, more general climate focused and where looking at the Far West more as a whole, ...

In line with the "best and worst" idea that I'd pointed to earlier this colder season of a "Flat Mix" of the two main Analog years that I'd suggested as being relatable to this one more current, … 
 
1976-7, more drought / post drought focused. .And 1996-7 more "Nino" focused.
 
.. At this point and where looking more at the "worst" side of this idea, [and] with colder air's current more slowed progress and pace more eastward along with and if otherwise at the same time, movement together with more general expansion steadily more south daily @, .. (it would appear, that.) all of the decent moisture generated through the tropics and subtropics more recently, has "booked" to the north. 

 
Of course having saturated much of Western WA. .And if, while not having been pressed more eastward, to more inland and over parts more south. .And with the more "best" side of this potential's being hopefully set to show itself sooner as opposed to later.
 
http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-2100B.jpg
http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-1800.jpg

 

Precipitation.
WA state/current 1d observed v.150106 12z
WA state/ 7d observed v.150106 12z

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12z Euro shows a seasonably cool pattern in the mid range. Looks like lengthy period of offshore flow.

Seems like we've had more offshore flow than onshore flow so far this Winter. Pretty astounding we haven't had any snow with that.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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12z GFS gives Seattle a total of 0.05" of rain in the next 10 days.

 

The Euro looks more active day 7-10 so I doubt the extremely dry GFS verifies, but it's still pretty amazing how these dry streaks keep popping up this Winter.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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12z GFS gives Seattle a total of 0.05" of rain in the next 10 days.

 

The Euro looks more active day 7-10 so I doubt the extremely dry GFS verifies, but it's still pretty amazing how these dry streaks keep popping up this Winter.

Last winter was the same... the definition of a tolerable winter to me is dry breaks.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12z GFS gives Seattle a total of 0.05" of rain in the next 10 days.

 

The Euro looks more active day 7-10 so I doubt the extremely dry GFS verifies, but it's still pretty amazing how these dry streaks keep popping up this Winter.

 

A more active pattern would be nice. Currently sitting near 41 degrees at Camp Muir at 10K in the middle of January.

 

WTF.

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