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January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest


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If we can't get widespread cold and snow, we might as well keep the nice sunrises and sunsets going...   These shots from the Long Beach Pen.   http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Beach-115/i-C

Its funny how everyone thinks everybody is a foot ball fan. Lady today asked me about seahawks. I dont watch football, never have even watched a game. She looked at me like I was a alien. I asked her

As a lot of you know I am finishing my degree in Atmospheric Science this spring. I decided I want to do more schooling so I am going to begin work on my masters degree this summer. I am going to be s

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The MJO is being trumped by extratropical wave-driving right now..it's not often you see two consecutive Arctic blasts in the east w/ the MJO in phases 4-5.

 

The PV is toast..late January for wave-2 completion?

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The snowpack at the pass is dismal right now. Hope things can improve in January. I found some interesting stats while browsing a site for backcountry skiiers called turnsallyear.

 

Here is a list of the worse December snowfalls since 1976 (a bad year) at Snoqualmie Pass. Keep in mind the December average is 96 inches.

 

1976 = 19"
1989 = 13"
2002 = 35"
2009 = 22"
2011 = 24"
2013 = 15"
2014 = 25"

 

As you can see we have had a recent string of bad Decembers. Since 1930, the worse decade for snowfall was the 1940s, and the best decade was the 1950s.

 

You can find the data here: http://hyak.net/snowfallhist.html

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0.0" of snow at BLI (among many others) is an awful winter no matter how you slice it. It's been bad, maybe not top flight bad, but a turd nonetheless.

 

It's rare to go this deep into the snow season without any widespread snow events and then have a dramatic turnaround at the 11th hour. In an El Nino it would be unheard of.  Just saying, there's a pretty legitimate reason for the pessimism. I'd just like an inch and if we can get that at some point, I'll gladly take it. In February? All the better.

 

I've been at my current location 12 years.  I've never gone this late in the season without at least 1/2" of snow.

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The MJO is being trumped by extratropical wave-driving right now..it's not often you see two consecutive Arctic blasts in the east w/ the MJO in phases 4-5.

 

The PV is toast..late January for wave-2 completion?

What are you getting this from?

 

http://s23.postimg.org/so409gnqz/zonal_wind_ecmwfzm_u_f192.gifhttp://s30.postimg.org/ogztl3pi9/fluxes.gif

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The snowpack at the pass is dismal right now. Hope things can improve in January. I found some interesting stats while browsing a site for backcountry skiiers called turnsallyear.

 

Here is a list of the worse December snowfalls since 1976 (a bad year) at Snoqualmie Pass. Keep in mind the December average is 96 inches.

 

1976 = 19"

1989 = 13"

2002 = 35"

2009 = 22"

2011 = 24"

2013 = 15"

2014 = 25"

 

As you can see we have had a recent string of bad Decembers. Since 1930, the worse decade for snowfall was the 1940s, and the best decade was the 1950s.

 

You can find the data here: http://hyak.net/snowfallhist.html

 

 

We'll be fine.

 

Last I heard... Jim said we were being too negative and we should stop worrying about bad runs and the "evidence is mounting".      Need an update from him.    :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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LR 12z GFS looks good for a mountain snow pattern. Will be interesting to see how long that carrot dangles!

 

It is. I hope it actually verifies. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It is. I hope it actually verifies.

12z Euro doesn't look promising at day 10. Yet another Aleutian low digging offshore keeping any appreciable troughing away from us. A continuation of the perma-pattern of the last year or so.

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12z Euro doesn't look promising at day 10. Yet another Aleutian low digging offshore keeping any appreciable troughing away from us. A continuation of the perma-pattern of the last year or so.

 

I hope the Aleutians are enjoying all that troughing!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12z Euro doesn't look promising at day 10. Yet another Aleutian low digging offshore keeping any appreciable troughing away from us. A continuation of the perma-pattern of the last year or so.

Just wait 'til February.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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We might get lucky with the Nino progged to steadily weaken for the rest of the winter.  In fact this probably won't even be an official Nino when it's all said and done.

-

What we're looking at more basically, with emphasis, in my view, Nino notwithstanding—(plenty of moisture looking at the idea more generally, if more just above normal, more widespread and in the right places leastwise.), … is the idea that more primary cold to the north is sitting where more substantially consolidated (having been caused to build up.) in places, and then otherwise, steered to others, .. not particularly good for us. / Neither the PNW or the Far West looked at more as a whole.

 

As I've pointed to within a post of mine tack up just the other day, main focus cold stores north and over Canada, east of the Rockies and more eastward, have been being added to, by cold that had been sitting over Northern Asia. Or more importantly, have by-passed all of the main Northern tier pathways more longitudinal from there to here.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=61994

( Broader pattern at this point, having shifted to more meridional. 1501072015z nasa globlir.jpg )

 

15010812z nhem 500.gif

15010812z nhem 850.gif   @

 

.. And with this, we have to wait for a general shake up pattern (i.e. cold steering.) wise, toward hoping to see more of what we either whether need or want. Or more basically, any more significant main "cold" presence, toward seeing any either whether decent cold, or its contribution to main precip..

 

As I see things, the most positive element perhaps working (set to begin working.) to bring this change about, is a shift toward a generally increasing more over-all force of movement where looking at main and broader cold air mass movement, from the 9th forward.

 

Generally related.

 

http://theweatherfor…weather-climate/?p=62000

http://theweatherfor...weather-climate/?p=62006

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I laughed when I saw this....Though a little part of me died inside.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=weather-event_2014fyvcoldestyear

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Anyways....Aside from social commentary....The fog has lifted here on the banks of the Willamette in Salem. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I was visiting a friend from college while I was down there recently. He related a story about how a student at the high school he is a teacher at had written on the bathroom wall that a female cheerleader and he were in a "relationship." He said that it was too bad he couldn't be open about how that would NEVER happen because in Oklahoma it is still legal (And likely in his case) to fire someone based on sexual orientation. Lovely place...

So your friend was dating a cheerleader?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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RMAOFLKSDFKLSDMFLKDSMF.

 

Is that all you got from that? Hehe.

 

Almost the middle of January and this place is dead.

Well considering the middle of January is typically the zenith of forum deadness, we're right on pace.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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The MJO is being trumped by extratropical wave-driving right now..it's not often you see two consecutive Arctic blasts in the east w/ the MJO in phases 4-5.

 

The PV is toast..late January for wave-2 completion?

 

Just our typical luck lately.  Even when the ball is in our court the East outdoes us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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They really needed it. Been long overdue.

 

Dutch Harbor has yet to have snowfall. They usually have had about 25 inches by now. Cold rain has been the norm there.

"There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku

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12z Euro doesn't look promising at day 10. Yet another Aleutian low digging offshore keeping any appreciable troughing away from us. A continuation of the perma-pattern of the last year or so.

 

At least the absurdly warm air mass has mostly not mixed down to the surface this month.  Good chance we avoid a top tier warm Jan the way it looks right now.  Talk about lowering standards!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Dutch Harbor has yet to have snowfall. They usually have had about 25 inches by now. Cold rain has been the norm there.

 

That is one stunning stat right there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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It was a pretty significant event. Even some places that didn't have serious flooding saw impressive 24 hour totals. 

 

Like over 3.5" at OLM (most awesome station ever).

 

I think what happened on the Coast was pretty impressive.  For Aberdeen to have problems from rainfall you know it rained a lot!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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At least the absurdly warm air mass has mostly not mixed down to the surface this month.  Good chance we avoid a top tier warm Jan the way it looks right now.  Talk about lowering standards!

 

Between 2007-2013, 5 of 7 Januaries were below normal at SEA. Fun fact of the day!  B)

Low. Solar.

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Between 2007-2013, 5 of 7 Januaries were below normal at SEA. Fun fact of the day!  B)

 

Below the new normal is pretty meaningless.  None of them have even approached being what we are long overdue for.

 

Also...I was referencing our recent string of torchy months as opposed to recent Januaries.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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LR 12z GFS looks good for a mountain snow pattern. Will be interesting to see how long that carrot dangles!

 

The ensembles, both Euro and GFS, agree on a very wet pattern for the PNW days 6-10 as a massive Gulf of Alaska low takes hold, and gradually lower snow levels to the point that by days 8+ the mountains could be seeing significant snow.

 

It's a zonal pattern for the vast majority of the U.S. as blocking disappears...not cold.

Low. Solar.

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Below the new normal is pretty meaningless.  None of them have even approached being what we are long overdue for.

 

Also...I was referencing our recent string of torchy months as opposed to recent Januaries.

 

They were below the long term normal, entire station record.

 

Of course, we all know a big/very cold January is way overdue. 

Low. Solar.

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It was a pretty significant event. Even some places that didn't have serious flooding saw impressive 24 hour totals.

 

Like over 3.5" at OLM (most awesome station ever).

I live 100 miles from Olympia.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I live 160 miles from Olympia!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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They were below the long term normal, entire station record.

 

Of course, we all know a big/very cold January is way overdue. 

 

I'm still not impressed.  Only two of the recent Januaries MAY have been below the 100 year normal.  For the Puget Sound lowlands the "coldest" January so far this century ranks number 31 for the period 1895 to present.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I was impressed by the word zenith used by dewey. Dont here that word to often. They said it in the christmas story movie and my parents had a big old zenith tv when I was a kid.

 

My disgust with this climate is truly at its zenith right now...

 

They were good TV sets for sure.  Our TV repair guy always called everything else a piece of .

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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At least the absurdly warm air mass has mostly not mixed down to the surface this month.  Good chance we avoid a top tier warm Jan the way it looks right now.  Talk about lowering standards!

 

 

56 here right now at 8 p.m. with a star-filled sky and an east wind.   Same down in the valley in North Bend.   Too bad for you that mucky, polluted cold is preferable.   :)

 

Silly stats over more tangibly enjoyable weather.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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56 here right now at 8 p.m. with a star-filled sky and an east wind.   Same down in the valley in North Bend.   Too bad for you that mucky, polluted cold is preferable.   :)

 

Silly stats over more tangibly enjoyable weather.

 

I know it's sad.  Feeling the cold air on my face when I walk outside is something at least.  I do wish the air wasn't so ridiculously damp though.  Everything is just soaked outside.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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