January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

The next couple days look quite spring-like. Dry, too. Just pretend it's late March.

 

Also. Go Hawks.

huh?! If it was late March it would be 38, raining, with a block in the perfect place for about two weeks. I think you have your months confused.

[HighlandExperience]

You can't get more active than 4" of rain in less than 48 hours. If we keep the jet stream pointed at California, I would be happy.

 

I should have clarified. I am not interested in warm wet weather in the middle of winter with periods of dryness and warm 850mb temps. Spring has plenty of that.

 

In the middle of winter I prefer cold rain where it fits. I'm not opposed to the occsaional cold dry spell.  

[stuffradio]

I should have clarified. I am not interested in warm wet weather in the middle of winter with periods of dryness and warm 850mb temps. Spring has plenty of that.

 

In the middle of winter I prefer cold rain where it fits. I'm not opposed to the occsaional cold dry spell.  

Cold dry is fine. I don't want cold rain though, that's worse than warm rain!

[Parksvillewx]

What a soupy, foggy day here. Blahh

[TT-SEA]

Cold dry is fine. I don't want cold rain though, that's worse than warm rain!

 

 

Some of that is good... and in fact required for skiing.

[TT-SEA]

Sun setting on the top of Mt Si at the end of a beautiful day... had partly sunny and even sunny skies at times.     

 

http://s16.postimg.org/x4upp1zn9/nb2.jpg

[Abbotsford_wx]

I'm looking forward to a warm up this week. It's been too cold and damp lately without anything really good to show for it. The first five days of this month never got above 38F. Today was 42F, but it's still damp and feels gross.

[bainbridgekid]

I'm looking forward to a warm up this week. It's been too cold and damp lately without anything really good to show for it. The first five days of this month never got above 38F. Today was 42F, but it's still damp and feels gross.

How much snow did you get Sunday?

[bainbridgekid]

Pretty interesting to see the temperature swings the last few days in Bellingham as the winds switched back and forth between SE and North.

 

[bainbridgekid]

Well now there is literally only one way in and out of Carnation. The whole Snoqualmie valley is one giant river. It is DEEP in places where there is usually a field. I feel bad for those houses scattered throughout the valley. The damage must be astounding. Like Snowman said, I haven't seen it this bad since that last major flooding event quite a few years ago (08?).

 

Just a complete mess.

Probably either November 2006 or December 2007.

[Dan the Weatherman]

You can't get more active than 4" of rain in less than 48 hours. If we keep the jet stream pointed at California, I would be happy.

We need the storms coming into CA so we can build the snowpack for our water supply! Every long lasting dry spell like this just exacerbates the current drought conditions.

[TT-SEA]

Probably either November 2006 or December 2007.

 

 

November 2006 and January 2009 were worse.   December 2007 was minor for the Central Cascades... much worse in SW WA.   

 

The houses that flooded with this moderate event were no doubt in worse shape during the 2006 and 2009 events.

[TT-SEA]

Well now there is literally only one way in and out of Carnation. The whole Snoqualmie valley is one giant river. It is DEEP in places where there is usually a field. I feel bad for those houses scattered throughout the valley. The damage must be astounding. Like Snowman said, I haven't seen it this bad since that last major flooding event quite a few years ago (08?).

 

Just a complete mess.

 

 

Those people live in a flood plain that routinely floods.   

[HighlandExperience]

Those people live in a flood plain that routinely floods.   

 

I feel bad for the owners, but people should not build in flood plains. Do your due diligence when buying a home.

[Jesse]

Cold dry is fine. I don't want cold rain though, that's worse than warm rain!

You must not care too much for any kind of mountain snow pack.

[Deweydog]

You must not care too much for any kind of mountain snow pack.

Does it matter?

[Front Ranger]

Good news is the upcoming +EPO regimen won't last as long as the last one..another tropical forcing retrograde on the way. Late January SSW/PV implosion? That's all we need to get the dominoes crashing..

 

The latest model trends have actually been to maintain the -EPO regime a bit longer and weaken the longer range trend towards +EPO. The GFS in particular doesn't even take the EPO into + territory. It's backed off quite a bit from a few days ago.

 

As long as the EPO isn't going positive, cooler than normal weather will be possible in the lower 48, regardless of what happens with the AO/NAO.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty interesting to see the temperature swings the last few days in Bellingham as the winds switched back and forth between SE and North.

 

BLI temp swings.png

 

 

You were tagged on facebook... and you can make a very scary looking face!  

[Front Ranger]

Seems like we've had more offshore flow than onshore flow so far this Winter. Pretty astounding we haven't had any snow with that.

 

Much like last winter, it's been a classic -EPO, weak ENSO cold season. Predominant ridge near or along western North America. Classic as far as the patterns go, not so much the luck with snowfall - unlike last winter in OR.

[Front Ranger]

You were tagged on facebook... and you can make a very scary looking face!  

 

#random

[Front Ranger]

Visibility today has been consistent with what you'd expect during +SN. Maybe the 2008 redux and then some call wasn't quite as goofyballs after all?

 

He never specified what "some" was...

[TT-SEA]

#random

 

 

You should see the picture.  

[Front Ranger]

You should see the picture.  

 

I'd ask you to post it on here, but that would be violation of bbkid's privacy.

 

Plus, I'm easily scared.

[TT-SEA]

I'd ask you to post it on here, but that would be violation of bbkid's privacy.

 

Plus, I'm easily scared.

 

I could PM you... it looks like it was a mock jail for charity so it was all for a good cause.     He plays the part very well.

[hailstop]

Well, we broke Kamloops's all time contiguous 24-hour and 2-day snowfall record: 39 cm. Most since the record 40 cm in 1927.

 

http://t.co/pJQ9CJ8ks4

[TT-SEA]

Well, we broke Kamloops's all time contiguous 24-hour and 2-day snowfall record: 39 cm. Most since the record 40 cm in 1927.

 

http://t.co/pJQ9CJ8ks4

 

15.3 inches (for the Americans).

[Brennan]

Well, we broke Kamloops's all time contiguous 24-hour and 2-day snowfall record: 39 cm. Most since the record 40 cm in 1927.

 

http://t.co/pJQ9CJ8ks4

That’s what we’d have had if the models about 10 days ago would have panned out in Western Washington! So close, yet so far. 

[TT-SEA]

Well, we broke Kamloops's all time contiguous 24-hour and 2-day snowfall record: 39 cm. Most since the record 40 cm in 1927.

 

http://t.co/pJQ9CJ8ks4

 

 

Random Google street view from Kamloops... looks like a nice place.

 

http://s30.postimg.org/nyuadmck0/kam1.jpg

[Abbotsford_wx]

How much snow did you get Sunday?

 

An inch of snow followed by about half an inch of freezing rain.

[bainbridgekid]

I could PM you... it looks like it was a mock jail for charity so it was all for a good cause.     He plays the part very well.

Nah just a New Years party.

 

It was about 25 degrees for fireworks, but it still a fun time.

[snow_wizard]

Wake me up when July gets here.

 

The weather is just too boring to even be worth taking about. 

[bainbridgekid]

November 2006 and January 2009 were worse.   December 2007 was minor for the Central Cascades... much worse in SW WA.   

 

The houses that flooded with this moderate event were no doubt in worse shape during the 2006 and 2009 events.

Yeah wasn't sure how bad December 2007 was out there. I know it was insane in SW Washington with I-5 underwater around Chehalis so figured it musta been fairly bad there too.

 

Kind of interesting that both the 2007 and 2009 major floods followed immediately after widespread lowland snow events.

[Deweydog]

Wake me up when July gets here.

 

The weather is just too boring to even be worth taking about.

You might miss some sexy CZ action in April.

[Deweydog]

Yeah wasn't sure how bad December 2007 was out there. I know it was insane in SW Washington with I-5 underwater around Chehalis so figured it musta been fairly bad there too.

 

Kind of interesting that both the 2007 and 2009 major floods followed immediately after widespread lowland snow events.

It's been a long time since we've seen what used to be a fairly common dynamic of major cold spell/overrunning event/pineapple express torch. 1996 was really the last of them although 2004 came close but that wasn't a traditional block.

[Deweydog]

0z is running! Cautious optimism??????

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 00z could get dangerously close to nothing.

[Snowman5678]

Yeah wasn't sure how bad December 2007 was out there. I know it was insane in SW Washington with I-5 underwater around Chehalis so figured it musta been fairly bad there too.

 

Kind of interesting that both the 2007 and 2009 major floods followed immediately after widespread lowland snow events.

 

(1) 62.21 ft on 01/08/2009

(2) 61.28 ft on 11/07/2006

(3) 60.70 ft on 11/24/1990

(4) 60.49 ft on 11/13/2008

(5) 60.34 ft on 02/09/1996

(6) 60.30 ft on 11/29/1995

(7) 59.93 ft on 11/13/1932

(8) 59.89 ft on 11/24/1986

(9) 59.88 ft on 02/27/1932

(10) 59.50 ft on 01/06/2015

(11) 59.48 ft on 11/10/1990

(12) 59.39 ft on 12/03/1975

(13) 59.32 ft on 01/17/2011

(14) 59.18 ft on 02/10/1951

(15) 59.08 ft on 01/19/2005

 

The biggest flood on the Snoqualmie was 2009 followed by 2006. Todays flood reached 59.5 feet or the 10th highest recorded.

[TT-SEA]

Nice to have it behind us. Maybe we are good for 2 or 3 years!

[TT-SEA]

Interesting that 5 of the 15 biggest floods have been since 2006.

 

And 3 of the top 4 were in less than a 3-year span.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting that 5 of the 15 biggest floods have been since 2006.

And 3 of the top 4 were in less than a 3-year span.

Something in that river drainage changed.