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January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest


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It was the NAO that got you, whether you want to believe it or not. The NAO isn't always relevant in PNW, but in cases like this, it is. There wasn't enough meridional wave-driving available to deliver the cold down there.

Presumably you've meant its state. As "nouns" go, the NAO is a fairly concrete one. It's really too bad that you don't see the value in working to elucidated what you post better. Definitely some elements of an idea more full here above.

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Looking that way right now. Gfs is pretty bullish hanging onto near freezing or below 925mb temps, easterly winds, and a fair amount of precip. Higher elevations around nanaimo could get 8-10" if that panned out. Looks like 2-6" down here. I would be worried if I lived near the ocean, might be tough to see actual sticking snow.

 

It'll be an interesting event up that way, looks like it will start of as rain as the upper levels have warmed a lot then transition to snow temporarily as the offshore gradient becomes stronger and precipitation intensity increases before going back to snow. Definitely not great for sticking snow near sea level and whatever does fall will be washed away within 12-24 hours. Looks like there's virtually no chance for anything in Victoria, I do miss living up Island.

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It'll be an interesting event up that way, looks like it will start of as rain as the upper levels have warmed a lot then transition to snow temporarily as the offshore gradient becomes stronger and precipitation intensity increases before going back to snow. Definitely not great for sticking snow near sea level and whatever does fall will be washed away within 12-24 hours. Looks like there's virtually no chance for anything in Victoria, I do miss living up Island.

Any improvement for north of Everett?

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Could well be. Jan 1969 featured a rock bottom NAO.

 

Exception rather than the rule for PNW cold waves, though. 

 

From what I've seen, a lot of East Coasters tend to overrate the NAO/AO influence and underrate the EPO influence. Alaskan blocking is the single biggest factor for delivering serious cold to the U.S., no matter what part of the country you are in.

 

Not saying Phil is wrong about how a -NAO might have helped in this case, but as a general rule it's not a significant factor for the PNW and in fact more often than not there is +NAO during PNW cold waves.

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This one has already had more than 2002-03 and ones like it...at least in this area. The thing that really bums me out is the fact this could be 3 winters in a row with very little snow here. That is really hard to take.

 

You guys are really due for a big, non-Arctic snow event. I know you prefer snow with Arctic air, but there have been some huge wet snow events in the past...maybe you'll see one of those later this winter.

 

As you said, there has been no shortage of Arctic intrusions.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Thing is, the large scale pattern transitioned exactly as we thought it would, particularly the PNA retrograde. Unfortunately, the elasticity of the barotropic PV/+NAO was just too tough to overcome.

 

Also, the -EPO blocking ridge setup just a tad too far east. That could have something to do with it, too.

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(.. cross-reference.)

.. Just dropping this in here to the "January" mix.

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=58897  (post no. 43)

With an attachment, that until the models pick up on and start digesting the more latitudinal component of what I've suggested as being likely, in my view all bets more negative, are off.

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This afternoon's AFD from Seattle sounds pretty hopeless for snow lovers in the extended:

.LONG TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT    THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY    NIGHT AND MONDAY AS STRONG W FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. A 130 KT JET    STREAM MOVING E ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN    STRENGTHENING THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. GFS SHOWS W WINDS 35-45    KT AT 850 MB SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE HEAVY    OROGRAPHIC PRECIP OVER MAINLY THE OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES. SNOW    LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 6000-7500 FEET AND PRECIP OVER THE    MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. RECENT MODEL QPF FORECASTS    HAVE LACKED CONSISTENCY...SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. THE CURRENT    QPF FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE COARSER ECMWF AND GFS.      GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT THE OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD    AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTER MONDAYS WARM FRONT MOVES N. I HAVE    GONE A LITTLE WAYS OUT ON A LIMB AND MOSTLY DRIED OUT THE AREA    DURING THAT PERIOD SAVE FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST. A COLD    FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. KAM    
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Also, the -EPO blocking ridge setup just a tad too far east. That could have something to do with it, too.

Yep, but that wouldn't have set up there under a synchronized dual wave break/-NAO...we had no downstream resistance. This was one of those events with weak wave driving at its core..one successful breaker won't do the trick.

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It was the moment you lost me from your 2014-15 bandwagon. I never thought we were primed for a big January but up until that point I thought you were pretty reasonable with your postulations and things were tracking nicely.

Every now and then my inner weenie gets the best of me. I still stand by the fact that the priming and tropical forcings were, when aggregated, among the best since the turn of the century.

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Its January 1st, and PDX has already seen three Arctic airmasses producing

 

38/27 (with earliest ZR ever recorded, 11/13)

37/23 (record low on 12/2)

35/21 (current)

 

So far, this is a decent cold season at least in the Portland area. To complain about it would amount to nothing more than whining.

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Exception rather than the rule for PNW cold waves, though.

 

From what I've seen, a lot of East Coasters tend to overrate the NAO/AO influence and underrate the EPO influence. Alaskan blocking is the single biggest factor for delivering serious cold to the U.S., no matter what part of the country you are in.

 

Not saying Phil is wrong about how a -NAO might have helped in this case, but as a general rule it's not a significant factor for the PNW and in fact more often than not there is +NAO during PNW cold waves.

Maybe weenies do, but most knowledgable folks know how things work.

 

We don't need a -AO or -NAO to get major cold here. In fact, our biggest blasts in recent decades have occurred under strong +NAOs. We also don't need a -EPO, as long as we have a legitimate -AO and/or a -NAO to go along with it.

 

On the other hand, the PNW essentially requires a -EPO to score a blast.

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This would actually be fairly impressive for the East Coat.

 

eastcoast.gif

I'll gladly take it, but it's not going to break any records..not even close

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Its January 1st, and PDX has already seen three Arctic airmasses producing

 

38/27 (with earliest ZR ever recorded, 11/13)

37/23 (record low on 12/2)

35/21 (current)

 

So far, this is a decent cold season at least in the Portland area. To complain about it would amount to nothing more than whining.

It comes down to lack of snow. People in this area have reason to be crabby about that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Maybe weenies do, but most knowledgable folks know how things work.

 

We don't need a -AO or -NAO to get major cold here. In fact, our biggest blasts in recent decades have occurred under strong +NAOs. We also don't need a -EPO, as long as we have a legitimate -AO and/or a -NAO to go along with it.

 

On the other hand, the PNW essentially requires a -EPO to score a blast.

Or a huge minus PNA like Jan 1909 or Jan 1950.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yep, but that wouldn't have set up there under a synchronized dual wave break/-NAO...we had no downstream resistance. This was one of those events with weak wave driving at its core..one successful breaker won't do the trick.

It comes down to the January curse that began around 1983. We simply can't score a major Arctic blast in January anymore. There is always one ingredient that doesn't falls into place. 1996, 2004, and 2007 had ok events, but not top tier. To me this is the most frustrating thing about our current climate. January used to be our big month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It comes down to the January curse that began around 1983. We simply can't score a major Arctic blast in January anymore. There is always one ingredient that doesn't falls into place. 1996, 2004, and 2007 had ok events, but not top tier. To me this is the most frustrating thing about our current climate. January used to be our big month.

It'll turn around eventually. Definitely want to see the Hadley Cells retract in the long run..that's a big reason for your struggles.

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Its January 1st, and PDX has already seen three Arctic airmasses producing

 

38/27 (with earliest ZR ever recorded, 11/13)

37/23 (record low on 12/2)

35/21 (current)

 

So far, this is a decent cold season at least in the Portland area. To complain about it would amount to nothing more than whining.

It is not about the lack of cold --- WE WANT SNOW!!!!  Capiche?! :)   NOW... let me make it simple ... it would be like having all of our 75 to 85 degree days be 100% cloudy with heavy rain the entire time year after year. I am not sure why this is so hard for people to understand. It is not whining, it is preference. Yes, I enjoy the cold but it seems wasted year after year when we just can't get substantial snow. I may be reading between the lines but I do not think anyone is complaining about the cold or lack of it. 

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Lol, is anyone watching the Oregon/FL State game? Talk about a play for the Hall of Infamy.

 

Anytime Jameis Winston loses is a good day.  He's such a self-centered moron.  Perhaps the Browns will draft him too.

 

Originally hailing from Boise, and being a Boise State alumni, you can probably figure out how much fun I've had the last decade and a half or so.  ;)

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Anytime Jameis Winston loses is a good day. He's such a self-centered moron. Perhaps the Browns will draft him too.

 

Originally hailing from Boise, and being a Boise State alumni, you can probably figure out how much fun I've had the last decade and a half or so. ;)

Haha, and there's another fumble. Loving this game so far.

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Maybe weenies do, but most knowledgable folks know how things work.

 

We don't need a -AO or -NAO to get major cold here. In fact, our biggest blasts in recent decades have occurred under strong +NAOs. We also don't need a -EPO, as long as we have a legitimate -AO and/or a -NAO to go along with it.

 

On the other hand, the PNW essentially requires a -EPO to score a blast.

 

I guess the way I look at it is that when there is a legitimate -EPO, pretty much always somewhere in the U.S. gets pretty cold.

 

When there is a -AO, it often gets cold, but usually it needs the help of -EPO or -NAO to drive the cold air into the U.S. Sometime all the cold goes to Europe or Asia.

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I guess the way I look at it is that when there is a legitimate -EPO, pretty much always somewhere in the U.S. gets pretty cold.

 

When there is a -AO, it often gets cold, but usually it needs the help of -EPO or -NAO to drive the cold air into the U.S. Sometime all the cold goes to Europe or Asia.

I agree, but you don't usually get legitimate -AOs without a -NAO or a -EPO, though.

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Its January 1st, and PDX has already seen three Arctic airmasses producing

 

38/27 (with earliest ZR ever recorded, 11/13)

37/23 (record low on 12/2)

35/21 (current)

 

So far, this is a decent cold season at least in the Portland area. To complain about it would amount to nothing more than whining.

 

Eh, no snow is always a bad winter and December was a torch. Been a modest disappointment but after last year that's maybe not a shock. It's also obviously not a 2002-03 or 1957-58 level winter.

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It is not about the lack of cold --- WE WANT SNOW!!!!  Capiche?! :)   NOW... let me make it simple ... it would be like having all of our 75 to 85 degree days be 100% cloudy with heavy rain the entire time year after year. I am not sure why this is so hard for people to understand. It is not whining, it is preference. Yes, I enjoy the cold but it seems wasted year after year when we just can't get substantial snow. I may be reading between the lines but I do not think anyone is complaining about the cold or lack of it. 

 

I just don't buy the argument that cold is "wasted" if it doesn't snow. Cold airmasses are impressive in their own right. Snow is fickle. Ephemeral. Too many stars need to align for snow to happen in Portland or Seattle. So if it doesn't happen, that shouldn't be cause for any grief. Not if you're looking at it rationally anyway...which I think may be the real issue with a lot of people.

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Eh, no snow is always a bad winter and December was a torch. Been a modest disappointment but after last year that's maybe not a shock. It's also obviously not a 2002-03 or 1957-58 level winter.

 

This isn't a good winter by any stretch of the imagination. Can't argue with 21 degrees and 0" snow at PDX.

 

But its done decently well so far at least in Portland. Key words being "decent" and "so far." That's how I see it.

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This isn't a good winter by any stretch of the imagination. Can't argue with 21 degrees and 0" snow at PDX.

 

But its done decently well so far at least in Portland. Key words being "decent" and "so far." That's how I see it.

 

I think most people assume the best is already behind us thanks to the Nino and likeliness of extended +PNA. If this ends up being the extent of our winter, I think people are right to label it a piece of crap. We shall see. 

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I think most people assume the best is already behind us thanks to the Nino and likeliness of extended +PNA. If this ends up being the extent of our winter, I think people are right to label it a piece of crap. We shall see. 

 

I would agree with that assessment. Its January 1st though. People can stand to wait a couple months before whining about this failed winter. Let it end first.

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I just don't buy the argument that cold is "wasted" if it doesn't snow. Cold airmasses are impressive in their own right. Snow is fickle. Ephemeral. Too many stars need to align for snow to happen in Portland or Seattle. So if it doesn't happen, that shouldn't be cause for any grief. Not if you're looking at it rationally anyway...which I think may be the real issue with a lot of people.

You clearly do not get it... It is about "preferance" not just about "cold". Your preferance is obviously cold and that is fine. Enjoy! I am sure you will have amazing stories and memories to reflect on. While others will not. :) moving on... And my preference is snow and this cold is waisted to my preference! Thanks. ;)

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You clearly do not get it... It is about preferance not about cold. Your preferance is obviously cold and that is it. Enjoy! I am sure you will have amazing stories and memories to reflect on. While others will not. :) moving on... And my preference is snow and this cold is waisted to my preference! Thanks. ;)

Good lord...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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