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January 5th/6th Potential Clipper


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GFS continues to show a pretty good clipper affecting most of the area with Chicago getting 6-10 in the latest 12z run. It looks like the UKIE has joined the GFS with a pretty strong clipper (although you can't see the precip maps, it has it about 10 mb stronger than the GFS at the same time) This could be a very high ratio event (15-20:1) which should fluff up totals.

 

GFS:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

 

 

UKIE at HR 120

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

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GFS continues to show a pretty good clipper affecting most of the area with Chicago getting 6-10 in the latest 12z run. It looks like the UKIE has joined the GFS with a pretty strong clipper (although you can't see the precip maps, it has it about 10 mb stronger than the GFS at the same time) This could be a very high ratio event (15-20:1) which should fluff up totals.

 

GFS:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

 

 

UKIE at HR 120

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

With the weekend storm starting to look like mostly a miss to the NW for Chicago I'm definitely looking forward to this one.

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I'd be stoked to get some warning snows with this clipper.  GFS has been the only model showing these kind of snowfall amounts.  It also was the only mode with the west trend going for the Jan 3rd storm.  Let's see how this one unfolds.

 

Like Scott said, Chicago is probably going to end up with a mix transition to backside snows for the Jan 3rd storm so I'll take this snow and run!

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Those ratios are 10:1 as well, so EURO showing about .2-.25 QPF and it will probably be 20:1 ratios. 

Exactly, it would easily fluff up to 20:1 ratios or even higher than that.  Man, can't believe how good the GFS is performing this winter TBH.

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GFS showing 17-25:1 ratios in Chicago.

 

150106/0300Z 111 23008KT 2.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
150106/0600Z 114 19008KT 5.4F SNOW 17:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 17:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0
150106/0900Z 117 19010KT 8.3F SNOW 17:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.181 17:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0
150106/1200Z 120 18010KT 11.4F SNOW 19:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.128 18:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150106/1500Z 123 24005KT 15.9F SNOW 25:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 19:1| 6.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0

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I will be blown away if I have 14" of snow on the ground by next Tuesday!

Get ready buddy, your in a primo spot...you may experience something similar to what we did last year in January when we saw back to back systems in a week that dumped a total of 20" of snow.  Might not hit that much but what a treat that would be for IA since last year you guys were right on the edge.

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Anybody think the GFS is overdoing it? It seems pretty strong and it has some parts of Iowa getting 2 inches of snow per hour. It is also the only model showing this much snow. Euro gives us 1-2 inches.

I'd be surprised if GFS verified with that much snow, however it has been very consistent. Will be interesting to see if Euro strengthens a bit with tonight's run.

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Anybody think the GFS is overdoing it? It seems pretty strong and it has some parts of Iowa getting 2 inches of snow per hour. It is also the only model showing this much snow. Euro gives us 1-2 inches.

That Euro map is 10:1 snow ratios and it has been playing catch up with this system.  GGEM/GFS were the first to sniff this Clipper out.  I'd pay attn to the GFS and also the NAM when in range as they are better with handling these type of systems.

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This system I'm looking forward to. I don't think this system will have any mixing issues! lol

 

Potent wave for coming out of the northwest.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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00z GFS still painting warning type snows over MN/IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/S MI...

Hard to get excited about that when the first storm for this weekend is 36 hours away and the models are still throwing big changes at us. That being said, at least I can go to bed tonight knowing the GFS stayed put with this event.

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This system I'm looking forward to. I don't think this system will have any mixing issues! lol

 

Potent wave for coming out of the northwest.

Same here...these potent waves coming off of the northern Pacific can bring some juice with it.  Reminds me of a heavy duty Clipper that hit our region back in the late 90's and producing a wide east/west swath of heavy snows.  When you can get underneath the banding that develops with these type of systems, it can snow heavily for hours.

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Only a matter of time before this thread is put on life support like the others have been!  Just kidding.

 

Hard to get excited about that when the first storm for this weekend is 36 hours away and the models are still throwing big changes at us. That being said, at least I can go to bed tonight knowing the GFS stayed put with this event.

I think this system has a much better chance to seeing significant snows because the models don't have to figure out phasing, precip type, temp profiles, etc.  Having said that, the GFS hasn't budged at all on the track over the last 2 days.  Hoping it stays put.

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They project Monday's high to be 3F, so I think temps with this snow will be in the single digits lol, hopefully there won't be too much of a good thing (cold air) to negatively impact ratios.

I think temps rise a bit into the mid/upper teens when the snow arrives Monday night...

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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010200/gfsp_asnow_us_20.png

 

Both storms combined. 

 

This snowfall map actually looks better (even if slightly overdone) compared to the WxBell snowfall maps because the ratios will be sky high given the DGZ depth and WxBell snowfall maps are assuming 10:1 which is way too low

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They project Monday's high to be 3F, so I think temps with this snow will be in the single digits lol, hopefully there won't be too much of a good thing (cold air) to negatively impact ratios.

 

That thought crossed my mind a bit. Would be nice to keep temps above 15° while it's snowing. GFS has us getting down near -10° behind this Clipper.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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