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January 5th/6th Potential Clipper


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Makes most sense to just post moisture maps from Weatherbell. I don't think any part of this system will contain 10:1 ratios.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Low resolution global models aren't the best ones to look at right now. I think both DBQ and ORD will be well within advisory criteria.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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First of the year-- WS warning for my county--- :lol: -NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
356 AM CST MON JAN 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON JAN 5 2015

WEAK WAVE OVERNIGHT BROUGHT SOME MINOR SNOWFALL TO SOUTHWEST
AREAS...MAINLY DONE AT THIS TIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
POTENT H850 SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME PLACEMENT
ISSUES CONTINUE WITH 00Z GFS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE
THE GEM/EURO/NAM CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF IF THE FORCING HANGS ON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE KEPT QPF VALUES CLOSER TO THE A BLEND
OF THE NAM/GFS/EURO. NEARLY ALL OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS A RATHER STRONG H850/H700 FRONTAL ZONE WITH
30 TO 40KTS OF H850 FLOW WHICH ACCOMPANIES THE SYSTEM. BUFR SOUNDING
SHOW THAT WESTERN AREAS NEAR CARROLL SHOULD BEGIN SATURATING BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW JUST PRIOR TO 18Z. BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORCED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH THE
BEGINNING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF ABOUT 1 TO 1.5
INCHES PER HOUR WEST...AND BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z OVER CENTRAL AREAS TO
EAST OF I35. THE MAX LIFT WILL HIT THE I35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 AND 7
PM...RUSH HOUR AND WILL IMPACT AREA TRAVEL CONSIDERABLY. FORCING IS
NOT A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM...SREF MEDIAN DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE SHOWS 150 TO +200MB OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH 8 TO 12MBARS/SEC LIFT THROUGH THE LAYER. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS FROM NORTHWEST TO EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES
WHERE WE HAVE ALIGNED THE MAX SNOWFALL AXIS FOR THE EVENT. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT...SHOULD EASILY SEE ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA. WINDS DONT LOOK TO BE A GREAT
ISSUE WITH THE STORM. SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SFC
FEATURE WHICH WEAKENS A BIT WITH TIME AS IT ENTERS IOWA. THE DRY
POWDERY NATURE OF THE SNOW...WITH MODEST WINDS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT MORE IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO CLIMB MUCH BUT WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH. HAVE CONTINUED THE
WARNING AREAS AS BEFORE BUT ADDED SOME OF THE WATCH COUNTIES TO
WARNING OVER THE SOUTH WHERE CUTOFF OF 6 INCHES VERY CLOSE AND
EXPANDED THE ADVISORY SOUTH AS WELL ONE ROW OF COUNTIES.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Low Pressure looks like it is trying to eject from the Rockies. A nice bulge to note coming into South Dakota. I would suspect this will be where the low pressure tries to come out. If this is to verify, the RAP from last night wouldn't be too far off. It was showing it in Northern South Dakota rather than Central. It is also where the 12Z NAM showed the low pressure coming out, which is exciting. This would make me believe that the GFS may be slightly too far south. However, either could still verify. Des Moines metro will be fun to follow as the NAM didn't look as promising for the southern portions this morning. 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s13/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1420469053944

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Yes, it hasn't weakened much. Still looks like a solid 6-9" for some areas, but you can keep making attempts at justifying yourself if you wish.

Do I have to go back and post every single model run to prove to you that it has not weakened?  And how do you define "it hasnt weakened much"? 2 mb? 4mb? 6mb? 

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What is the start/stop time looking like for DBQ for this event?

Looks like precip begins to break out near RFD around 6:00pm, ORD 7:30pm and lasts for a good 6 hours or so...

 

Latest HRRR..a little more generous with qpf totals...still snowing a little bit in N IL

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Radio said start time around 3 to 4pm, not sure of the end time.

 

I am done with the models and going off radar now.

 

T minus 3 hours!

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

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Tom, it looks like Des Moines is just to the south of the Jackpot area on the 12Z ECMWF. Certainly looks closest to the NAM. I would be on edge if I were in the Des Moines Metro area. GFS and RGEM still saying yes, but looks like others are on the line with the southern extent of the precip. 

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