gosaints Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Seems as though there is a little less digging and flatter trajectory in current trends wont make much of a difference here but for northern illinois it certainly would Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 My county, Warren, just got added into warning by Des Moines. Been snowing for about an hour and a half here already. Bring it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Latest RAP...not too bad looking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Grid forecast total was slashed to 1-3" here. Roads will be bad no doubt with road chemicals rendered useless in this cold. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blugga Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Puts Chicago area in the 4-7" range. Will be fun to see what the final snow ratio really is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Puts Chicago area in the 4-7" range. Will be fun to see what the final snow ratio really is.Please give me some more of this kool-aid! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 18z RAP coming in even wetter for both IA/IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleather Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 SPC just put up a mesoscale discussion: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0027.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 It be interesting to see how this plays out final snow totals. I"m in eastern Ia right along the river hope to score big fingers crossed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Temps are running a good 7-10 colder then expected so that should also help some with some totals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lcp Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Radio said start time around 3 to 4pm, not sure of the end time. I am done with the models and going off radar now.  T minus 3 hours!Thanks to you and Tom. Being in the snow biz, it's nice to know when to get started. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 According to that map above i should score 7 plus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Tomorrow should be fun also once the winds pick up blow the fresh powered snow around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meichel Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Been watching the RAP too, and that 2" line has taken baby steps N in the last 2 runs. 4km NAM showing more like 5 or 6 IMBY. LOT just decreased my totals of 3-5" to 2-4" Quote On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meichel Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 LOT:Â TRACK-WISE THE MAIN SFCFEATURE WILL CROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH THE BEST FORCING JUSTNORTH OF ITS TRACK. LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SUPPORT PEAKAMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST ASCENT DISPLACEDABOVE THE PRIMARY SNOW GROWTH LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WITHBETTER ALIGNMENT AS YOU WORK SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY HAMPER SNOWEFFICIENCY NORTH WITH FINER FLAKES. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARDPONTIAC...WATSEKA...AND FOWLER SHOW MORE OPTIMAL SNOW PRODUCTIONAND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL LIKELY SEE THE HIGHESTTOTALS IN OUR CWA...WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS FAVORED FURTHERSOUTH. SNOW PROGRESSION STILL LOOKS ON TRACK BUT MAY NEED TO SPEEDARRIVAL OF THE INTIAL WARM ADVECTION SNOW...NOW MOVING INTOCENTRAL IOWA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILLLIKELY TIGHTEN SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATESTTRENDS AND ABOVE DISCUSSION WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES IN THE FARNORTHEAST AND A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT UP TO THE 4-6 RANGE ACROSSTHE FAR SOUTH. Quote On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 LOT:Â TRACK-WISE THE MAIN SFCFEATURE WILL CROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH THE BEST FORCING JUSTNORTH OF ITS TRACK. LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SUPPORT PEAKAMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST ASCENT DISPLACEDABOVE THE PRIMARY SNOW GROWTH LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WITHBETTER ALIGNMENT AS YOU WORK SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY HAMPER SNOWEFFICIENCY NORTH WITH FINER FLAKES. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARDPONTIAC...WATSEKA...AND FOWLER SHOW MORE OPTIMAL SNOW PRODUCTIONAND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL LIKELY SEE THE HIGHESTTOTALS IN OUR CWA...WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS FAVORED FURTHERSOUTH. SNOW PROGRESSION STILL LOOKS ON TRACK BUT MAY NEED TO SPEEDARRIVAL OF THE INTIAL WARM ADVECTION SNOW...NOW MOVING INTOCENTRAL IOWA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILLLIKELY TIGHTEN SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATESTTRENDS AND ABOVE DISCUSSION WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES IN THE FARNORTHEAST AND A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT UP TO THE 4-6 RANGE ACROSSTHE FAR SOUTH.I'm not sure if this was written a little while ago but they need to take another look as the latest HI-RES models keep increasing the qpf for our area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I wish it was summer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'm not sure if this was written a little while ago but they need to take another look as the latest HI-RES models keep increasing the qpf for our area.Latest SREF going a little bonkers but all of the hi-res models are increasing qpf as well so cannot really discount it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'm not sure if this was written a little while ago but they need to take another look as the latest HI-RES models keep increasing the qpf for our area.  you thinking more snow for Chicago? I'm thinking 5-7" but might go higher if models show more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I wish it was summer you don't like snow?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I love snow I hate this kind of cold 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 you thinking more snow for Chicago? I'm thinking 5-7" but might go higher if models show more Actually your numbers look pretty good but hopefully they can be nudged up slightly as we get closer to our start time. Hopefully it won't take too much to saturate the column. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 3-5 for Chicago IMO 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 3-5 for Chicago IMOÂ LOT says 2-4, so this is good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 3-5 for Chicago IMOThat was my original thinking early this morning but watching the trends so far today I am thinking 5-7. Hope I'm low!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 .UPDATE... 130 PM CST HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...LIVINGSTON...FORD...IROQUOIS...BENTON...TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS EVENING. WITH AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW QUICKLY SPREADING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA PRODUCING SNOWFALL OF AN INCH OR BETTER PER HOUR AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...FGEN FORCING LOOKS TO FURTHER FOCUS INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO EARLY EVENING. AM THINKING THAT THE PEAK INTENSITY/DURATION AND THEREFORE PEAK AMOUNTS WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OR JUST SOUTH. AFTER DISCUSSION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS REGARDING THE INTENSE SNOW RATES...IMPACTS...AND THE FACT THAT 6-7 INCHES IS LOOKING MORE FAVORED OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meichel Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 I pulled that from the latest AFD, then they hoisted that warning right after. Quote On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 That was my original thinking early this morning but watching the trends so far today I am thinking 5-7. Hope I'm low!! 7 is not happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Wow, looking at the radar, this thing looks like its gonna pivot through central Iowa which would put me in the jackpot. Local met posted the low track and it looks further north, more in line with the NAM. I'm stoked. Cant wait to get home from work and watch this thing unload. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Snowing between 1" and 2" an hour here in Sioux Falls, SD... About 2 inches on the ground with what looks like an expected storm total around 6-7 inches here locally. Visibility is poor in the city, couldn't imagine how bad it is in the country/rural areas. Glad I made it here to enjoy a decent snowstorm since we don't get them in Eastern Nebraska much anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Easily an inch to inch and quarter per hour in northwestern Warren county, just sw of Des Moines. Nice band on west/sw side of metro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 7 is not happening.   models say it is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 DVN has me down to 4 right now.... Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter  78.1"  Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage  : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow  : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Latest RUC wetter as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 RUC looks good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Curious to know what the snow ratios are looking like out west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Actually your numbers look pretty good but hopefully they can be nudged up slightly as we get closer to our start time. Hopefully it won't take too much to saturate the column.There wont be any problems with virga in this system.  Dynamics are rather impressive for a Clipper...might call this a Clipper on "roids", ok, maybe not roids, but Peptides...LOL. Precip shield just crossed over Cedar Rapids, IA and its snowing there.  Column will saturate with no problems. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Do you guys think my flight still maybe delayed fi it's getting in at 10:25 p.m. @ Midway? Looks like the radar is filling in nicely in IA just wondering how far E the heaviest bands will push. New AFD seems like they are favoring the Southern part of the CWA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Amazing how the heavier bands of snow have MUCH better dendrite growth. It's easy seen just with a casual glance out the window and watching the radar. The lesser radar returns=not very good accumulation snowflakes. Nearly 4" NW of Des Moines near Perry. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 If you read LOT's update, ratios are running pretty normal in Iowa. 10-11:1, so maybe the ratios will be near normal? Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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