james1976 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Nice. I'm liking that the Euro is lining up better with GFS. What's snowfall map from Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 00z Euro...remember to fluff those snowfall totals up...Euro also trending a little wetter each run...trend is our friend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Definitely wetter! Ratios may be 20:1 so doubling those totals is possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 06z NAM coming in juicy...6-11" totals showing up in N IL....also came in a tad south this run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Would probably favor a further south solution like tom said though the article plunge doesn't look as impressive as it did a couple days ago for Sunday night and Monday. Models really are handling it well as they are all basically within 100 miles of each other. Should get some better sampling shortly. From an imby perspective I would love to see the nam.verify but know riding any one solution right now is crazy. South trend overnight is evident. Question. Is if it has stopped or more to come. Also sometimes after the models do jump they end up adjusting back a little. That is in a normal winter. We all know how model performance has been this winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'm happy with where I am sitting with this one to at least 2" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Models were terrible with clippers last year, fwiw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 12z GFS still showing widespread 6+http://i.imgur.com/0lfZRsU.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 And a widespread 7-9. This run may actually be just a tad juicier from last run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Northern Iowa should be the place to be for this one I would guess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Another thing, which hasnt been mentioned much yet, is that it is supposed to be very windy right behind this sytem. This will be a fluffy snow and wind profiles are pretty intense. There should be a lot of blowing snow. Also, very dangerous wind chills. IMO, this so far is THE storm of the season, potentially. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 With the 12z run in range, the UK is a carbon copy of the GFS with a heavy band right across Iowa.  http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_048-072_0000.gif Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"   '21-22: 27.1"   '20-21: 52.5"   '19-20: 36.2"    '18-19: 50.2"    '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 The GFS Ensembles are mostly north or in lock step with the OP, not surprising I guess, the GFS Ensembles have been on the strong side of guidance the last two systems as well, along with being north and west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 12z PGFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 12z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Trends looking weaker on the qpf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 No it's not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Trends looking weaker on the qpfI have no clue where you got this from. That is definitely not the case... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Bummer, looks like this will be going South of me. At least I get the cold air that I've been wishing for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Euro lining up nicely with other models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Trends looking weaker on the qpfPlease refrain from posting. You clearly know nothing about the weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Please refrain from posting. You clearly know nothing about the weather.Ok really? I am sure you a model reading wizard. I forgot that the euro maps are 10:1 . I made that statement after seeing the anemic ggem and euro. Â Maybe you could give me a lesson in atmospheric dynamics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 12z Euro Ensemble/Control.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 You have access to better stuff than me tom. Euro ensemble control slightly north of the operational? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 You have access to better stuff than me tom. Euro ensemble control slightly north of the operational?I'd say its about the same track just more wider with the general precip it seems... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 18z NAM...still coming in juicy with a stripe of 6-10" (possible local 12") snows into S MN/N IA/N IL/S WI...pretty potent Clipper to say the least... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'd say its about the same track just more wider with the general precip it seems...Thanks. Good to see the nam still juicing this storm. When we get closer this is a set up where the nam should perform decently well 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Generally speaking, unlike last year when we had these Clipper systems that had a 25-50 mile wide band of heavier snows that almost always placed it over N IL...this Clipper seems to be shaping up to have a broader 6"+ band about 200 miles wide which gives alot of us a better chance to seeing warning type snows. Â I guess you would call this a "share the wealth" Clipper. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'm hoping the NAM is the northerly outlier. The Euro and the new EPS control are further south than this; although north of the GFS, PGFS, GGEM, and UK. So perhaps the middle of the road Euro is the way to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Tomorrow night this system comes on shore around 00z Monday. Â Still wouldn't be surprised to see some shifts by Monday's 12z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Pretty much every models is throwing around 8" at me. Amazing if this happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Pretty much every models is throwing around 8" at me. Amazing if this happens.Where r u located? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Hi-res NAM: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015010318/nam4km_ref_us_19.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015010318/nam4km_asnow_us_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Where r u located?half hour nw of waterloo, ia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Winter Storm Watches already being issued! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Same here with the sweetspot. This winter 2 inches is a payout. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter  78.1"  Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage  : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow  : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 I bet this thing will push more southeast with the cold air forcing it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Hi-res NAM: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015010318/nam4km_ref_us_19.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015010318/nam4km_asnow_us_21.pngHi-Rez Nam going bonkers on the snowfall totals exceeding 16"+...I'd take half that!   I have seen these type of systems over achieve especially with such an intense speed max streaking along the jet stream which can produce a lot of "lift" resulting in intense frontogenesis snows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Whoever gets to sit underneath these east/west bands can get dumped on with heavy snowfall rates for hours. Â It'll be interesting to see what the 18z GFS shows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 18z GFS coming in a little farther south than the NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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