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January 5th/6th Potential Clipper


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Temps in the mid/upper 10's during this system will make this snow extremely fluffy and with the wind blowing the white stuff around, it'll feel like a Holiday!  850's look to be -15C or lower maximizing snowfall ratios if not close to 25:1 or so.  This is the kind of snowfall that can wreck havoc on travelers and roadways as it is usually a "slippery" snow on the roadways when the salt doesn't really work that well with temps that low.

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Wow check out sref ratios. 35:1 on the northern flank of band

That's what I'm talking about.  There was a system like this back in Chicago a few years back near Christmas Day that produced 6-10" of snow in a small band with only .20qpf or so.  Can't really remember what year that was but the snowflakes were almost "see through".  Very dry dendrites like LES.

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Not saying this will be the case, but I've seen a lot of clippers trend south some during this period, only to come back north a little as the storm gets close. I'm sitting pretty good tho, just excited that I may actually have a shot at some real snowfall. Although I've already said that a couple times this year.

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I think this system will have a wide area of 4-8" in the heaviest band, maybe even more in some spots. Ratios:

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Of course, you Chicago folks get destroyed, while we may not be so lucky here.... 

We'll see..I'd like to say I'm comfortable where I sit, but knowing that arctic air likes to push things south it keeps me sane.  I know this Clipper is in weakening stages as it comes east so I doubt it cuts any farther north than this.  If it would strengthen, that would be a different story.

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USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_060.gif00Z gfs 48 hours snowfall through 60--- further S. this is coming down to the wire- It will be thrown out because it destroys my stomping grounds  :(

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Can you post a map with the calculated snow ratios???

 

I can't post from my phone but it is insane..22" in spots

 

 

Dear lord, I'd love to see that! I'm right in that 20"+ area. If only there wasn't such a discrepancy between that and the GFS... could literally be a dusting or a possible 10"+ storm for us in SE Minnesota

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gfs_6hr_snow_acc_mw_11.pngPAR GFS-- just a tad even further south--- me likes the trends-- but again until this energy comes ashore tomorrow,,  I would rather be further N.-

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The nam historically has a northerly and too wet bias. Not to say it couldn't be right. The gfs and pgfs are much further south, but still pretty high on qpf. Ukmet just came out and looks just like the gfs. Ggem just came out and looks like the gfs as well. Right now the only other model remotely supporting the nam is the euro. Which is further south than the nam but further north than both gfs models and the uk and Canadian

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SREF plumes are on the rise quickly. Everything from 3.5-17.5" here. With a mean of 9.5".

 

 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150103&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ORD&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=42.6175418901816&mLON=-88.65673697814941&mTYP=roadmap

 

A sounding at Madison showing a 400mb deep Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ). That isn't seen very often. This system could easily produce white out conditions.

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I think what we should take from the High Rez NAM is not the snow fall totals, but instead I think the model may be trying to hint at some very intense banding with this system.  In the summer, it does well with severe wx outbreaks and can pin point where the heavier lines of storms set up.  It might be the case here but track is ultimately not set in stone yet.

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Nice to see our 2 minor snow events yesterday.

 

DVN updated to 6 inches for me with a WSW. Says isolated 8+ inches with 30:1!

 

I am on vacation till Feb so bring it!

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Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

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So what model was the most accurate with the New Year's Eve storm's track/amounts? Just curious to see what we should maybe be paying more attention to for this one (If that even matters). With the 6z runs, the NAM seems a little bit more widespread with totals, and the GFS seems a touch more south. Do any snow maps even take into account a possible 25:1 ratio? Thanks everyone for all the info!

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So what model was the most accurate with the New Year's Eve storm's track/amounts? Just curious to see what we should maybe be paying more attention to for this one (If that even matters). With the 6z runs, the NAM seems a little bit more widespread with totals, and the GFS seems a touch more south. Do any snow maps even take into account a possible 25:1 ratio? Thanks everyone for all the info!

Yes, these maps take into account snowfall ratios.  Looks like DSM/DVN in line with the most accumulations from this Clipper right now.  Full sampling of this piece of energy will happen by 00z tonight so could see some minor shifts but I think track is set for now.  Past experience told me shifts south would happen and look what it did.

 

First WSW of the year, probably downgraded to a WWA tomorrow if track stays put for NE IL.

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