January 5th/6th Potential Clipper

[Tom]

Someone in IA who can get underneath that heaviest band wherever it sets up could see double digit snowfalls.  When that band pivots will be key.

[Niko]

Looks like SEMI could see a little snow from this clipper type system. I'm thinking with high ratios being almost 20:1, maybe It can squeeze out a 2-4 inch type event. 

[Trinomial]

Hi-RES 12z NAM looks almost identical to me. I might be wrong though, but track as well as qpf looks very similar with little movement compared to the 6z. Are we thinking 25:1 ratios still?

[Scott26]

09Z SREF mean is still 7.64 inches at ORD with the lowest a bit over 4 inches and the highest being around a foot. I subtracted off the snow that it still showed from this weekends system. I still believe a slight shift in either direction is possible, but probably only around 25 miles or so.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS not budging yet-

[Tom]

12z GFS came in even slightly farther south for N IL....riding the northern edge ATM...

[bud2380]

PGFS came in further south

 

 

http://weather.graphics/gsm/2015010412/iowa/gfs_6hr_snow_acc_iowa_9.png

[Scott26]

I'm not liking how the GFS is going a bit south every single run lol. The NAM is still a pretty big northern outlier at the moment.

[Trinomial]

What will have to happen to have this storm shift further north again? Is the arctic air just pushing it south?

[Tony]

Not liking the trends so far but still a ways to go so addl shifts are possible. The saving grace will be higher snow ratios for us unless there are more shifts to our south then we won't see much.

[East Dubzz]

Yeah, someone tell the southern shifts to chill out a little bit!

[Tom]

What will have to happen to have this storm shift further north again? Is the arctic air just pushing it south?

Yup, the arctic air is pushing it south...right now ORD stands at a 3-5" event tops.  Des Moines, IA is looking to be in the sweet spot but that southern edge is a dagger if your 25 miles to the south.

[bud2380]

RGEM

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2015010412/mw/rgem_tprecip_slp_mw_17.png

[james1976]

stop going south.

[james1976]

NAM is a direct hit for me. GFS has me just north of the heaviest band now. Last night's Euro was perfect for me. I know one thing, that southern cutoff is harsh. I would hate to be in that area.

[james1976]

I like this. But idk when it was updated
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_composite.gif

[james1976]

075z??? Is that 1:30am?

[Money]

That was from this morning

[bud2380]

GGEM

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2015010412/iowa/cmc_total_precip_iowa_8.png

[bud2380]

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2015010412/mw/cmc_total_precip_mw_11.png

[Seahawkfan]

Ha Like the trends of this pushing south I'm too close to that southern cutoff But liking the trends currently. I love to get under that sweet spot. 

[gabel23]

Looks like a great hit for certain areas in Iowa; don't know what it is about clippers but they always are good for areas to our east. We never have luck with them, one thing is for sure the cold shot coming after looks brutal. I have a forecast high of 3 on Wednesday!

[Tony]

The past couple storms had major shifts within 24hrs. I wonder what to expect this time around, will it shift farther south or trend back north to where it first started. Guess it all depends on where the baraclinic zone sets up.

[gosaints]

GFS ensembles pretty inline with the op. Guess is the mean is a tick north

[james1976]

The past couple storms had major shifts within 24hrs. I wonder what to expect this time around, will it shift farther south or trend back north to where it first started. Guess it all depends on where the baraclinic zone sets up.

Yeah but this past storm had so many pieces and phasing issues. Clippers dont have that. Any shifts should be minor......i would think.

[Tony]

 

Yeah but this past storm had so many pieces and phasing issues. Clippers dont have that. Any shifts should be minor......i would think.

 

Yea but minor shifts could be huge from a decent snowfall to not much for a few of us.

[Scott26]

The past couple storms had major shifts within 24hrs. I wonder what to expect this time around, will it shift farther south or trend back north to where it first started. Guess it all depends on where the baraclinic zone sets up.

Eh, I have my doubts this is going to shift back North. The 12Z hi-res runs this morning went well south of their 06Z. My guess that the 18Z NAM will continue to correct south more in line with the GFS as well. It's a lot better to be riding on the northern end than the southern end though. Even if the southern solutions come to fruition we would still get around 2-4 inches which would be a lot better than nothing.

[james1976]

That southern edge is harsh. would not wanna be down there.

[GDR]

If this thing keeps pushing south is going to end up in Missouri.

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[Madtown]

Looks like a non event now up this way.

[Tom]

Looks like a DSM/DVN Special right now...give or take 25 miles north or south.  You can see the models coming into agreement.  However, it can easily go 25 miles north or south the day of.  Just need to see what the radar is showing Monday afternoon in order to see where this clipper is tracking.  

[Grizzcoat]

Thanks for posting tom. On 35 now near mason city and she's a ground blizzard in the open areas

[FV-Mike]

It will be really interesting to see the radar returns once the storm starts going. I remember last year that the models had some issues with qpf/speed/location of the clippers. Still think Chicagoland will be in the 3-6 range

[Geos]

That southern edge is harsh. would not wanna be down there.

 

That's the place where you would be sweating it. haha. 

I do think the bleeding trend to the south is coming to a halt now.

[Tom]

Folks who are on the northern edge, keep in mind that snow ratios increase as you head northl so when you see the qpf totals, add more fluff to it as well.

[WBadgersW]

Good luck to those down South. At least we finally have a storm in the region (so far).

[Trinomial]

We had so many times where within 24 hours the model trends opposite. Lets see if that can happen!

[East Dubzz]

Wouldn't surprise me to see a north trend. Especially since its not fully sampled yet. Doubt it'd be much, but could see it. That said, also wouldn't surprise me if there is no change either. Pretty solid concensus from the models.

[Tom]

If someone can post the new SREF's for ORD when they come in it would be appreciate...