January 5th/6th Potential Clipper

[Sven]

18z gfs PAR-gfs_6hr_snow_acc_mw_9.png

C'mon baby little further southeast..

[Grizzcoat]

DSM GFS 18Z Data--

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: DSM    LAT=  41.53 LON=  -93.65 ELE=   965                                            18Z JAN04   * - APPROXIMATED                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK SUN 18Z 04-JAN -14.3   -16.2    1034      52      55             539     514    MON 00Z 05-JAN -15.1   -18.6    1039      68      69    0.00     540     512    MON 06Z 05-JAN -15.4   -19.8    1041      71      63    0.00     541     510    MON 12Z 05-JAN -16.5   -17.8    1041      85      48    0.00     545     515    MON 18Z 05-JAN -11.6   -13.2    1036      71      97    0.00     550     523    TUE 00Z 06-JAN -10.6   -15.5    1026      96      99    0.35     548     528    TUE 06Z 06-JAN  -9.5   -11.3    1024      96      47    0.11     544     526 

[East Dubzz]

Those runs of the GFS were not very pleasant.

[dubuque473]

Gfs=medium range to me. Not too concerned what it shows 24hrs out.

[gosaints]

Should have pretty good sampling at 0z though complete sampling maybe not until 12z tomorrow

[East Dubzz]

Could change for better or worse, but I'm thinking 4-6 for DBQ right now.

[gosaints]

Could change for better or worse, but I'm thinking 4-6 for DBQ right now.

You should be good to go. Good safe spot to be

[Jaycee]

You should be good to go. Good safe spot to be

MPX still saying 4-6", for our area... you think that's overdone??

[Grizzcoat]

DSM metro may be split.  NE side near Ankeny and Altoona may be 8"+, SW side near WDM and Waukee closer to 4-6" and the airport and downtown in between.  Latest Cobb spits out 9.1" (GFS) and 5.3" (NAM) for the airport.  Going to be a close one!

[gosaints]

MPX still saying 4-6", for our area... you think that's overdone??

Where are u?

[Tony]

P&c has me in 3"-7" range which is a fair estimate. See how it plays out in the next 24hrs.

[Scott26]

Should have pretty good sampling at 0z though complete sampling maybe not until 12z tomorrow

If it doesn't shift north on tonight's 00Z runs I think the track is set. I don't see this shifting farther south, but I guess that is possible as well. My guess is Central Iowa is going to be in the jackpot when this is all said and done.

[Yerf]

ABC 7 showed the snow totals using the NAM and it had 8 inches for ORD

[james1976]

Look at this puppy in the far nw usa and sw canada.
http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/gifs/WV500MB.GIF

[james1976]

Should have pretty good sampling at 0z though complete sampling maybe not until 12z tomorrow

12z tomorrow? Dang, the Warning kicks in tomorrow afternoon in Iowa. I would think 0z it should be sampled. But I've heard sampling isnt gonna mean much with this system.

[East Dubzz]

12z tomorrow? Dang, the Warning kicks in tomorrow afternoon in Iowa. I would think 0z it should be sampled. But I've heard sampling isnt gonna mean much with this system.

No I think what he meant was that the "wait till its fully sampled" talk doesn't mean much because it won't be fully sampled till it's pretty much here anyway.

[dubuque473]

Look at this puppy in the far nw usa and sw canada.http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/gifs/WV500MB.GIF

Pretty cool picture.

[East Dubzz]

I still don't see a puppy in there.

[Jaycee]

Where are u?

Red Wing, about 30 miles Northeast of Rochester.

[gosaints]

4-6 is probably high there I would guess about 2 right now but let's weight to see 0z guidance

[The Snowman]

I still don't see a puppy in there.

The clipper vort max is the lower WV swath north of the moisture.

Another look from 12z:

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2015010412.Aoa.naconf.gif

[Geos]

0z guidance will set the tone I think. Only thing that could change the storms trajectory further north if it is stronger. I think the heaviest axis of snow will be from up by James to the Quad Cities to Kankakee.

[CodyErvin]

New to the forums here. Reporting in from the eastern Nebraska area and watching this system closely. For now it obviously looks to scrape us and we look to be on about as best edge as you can make here. Though any slight shift south and Boom, could see a couple inches. 

 

Looks like central Iowa will be the show on this one. A good 6-10" out there seems probable with someone picking up those 9" and 10" amounts in the heaviest bands.

 

A pretty good pocket of moisture and lift developing and sitting right in there.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/18/CGP/namCGP_700_vvel_030.gif

[james1976]

I still don't see a puppy in there.

LMAO

[Maxim]

I still don't see a puppy in there.

Was I the only one who got it?

[Tom]

All I want tonight is a Winter Storm Warning and a Hawks win!  That would cap off the weekend.

[6789]

I'll be happy with a solid 3" out of it. But anymore is greatly appreciated!

[East Dubzz]

Glad at least a couple people got the joke

[gosaints]

Srefs still going to be the best model for chi town peeps. Lessens totals up here though as expected

[Scott26]

Glad at least a couple people got the joke

I laughed so hard when you made the joke and in response Snowman posts 500 hPa Heights/Absolute Vorticity lol.

[WBadgersW]

SREF is still North

 

Lock it in!

[gosaints]

SREF is still North

 

Lock t in!

Consistent. But probably out of.line

[WBadgersW]

Consistent. But probably out of.line

Oh I know, it's my lost piece of hope.

[Scott26]

Consistent. But probably out of.line

It's likely too far north still, but usually when we're less than 24 hours from an event they're fairly accurate. Lets see what the 0Z NAM does...

[Geos]

 

 

Very generous.

[Tom]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2015/post-14-0-90599800-1420421568.gif

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2015/post-14-0-69070900-1420421575.gif

 

Very generous.

D**n, thats way north than any of the models.  I'm curious if the mountain "torque" may throw a curve ball in the modeling for tonight's 00z runs.

[East Dubzz]

I laughed so hard when you made the joke and in response Snowman posts 500 hPa Heights/Absolute Vorticity lol.

Hahahahhaha I was like...uhhh....

[gosaints]

Sref track has really stayed the same totals probably drop a bit but that's probably the amped out solutions going back to reality

[6789]

Just thought I would see what you guys think, but how does a flight landing tomorrow at 10:25 p.m. at Midway fare in all of this?

[gosaints]

Just thought I would see what you guys think, but how does a flight landing tomorrow at 10:25 p.m. at Midway fare in all of this?

Not very good although wind may not be an issue. Visibility will be if northern solution verifies especially