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January 5th/6th Potential Clipper


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Hawks win! What a game!

We look to be in a pretty good spot snowman. There is a bit of model discrepancy, but generally the track is fairly similar between the Euro, GFS, PGFS and even the NAM. The NAM and Euro are a tinge n

3-5 for Chicago IMO

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What is the start/stop time looking like for DBQ for this event?

Looks like precip begins to break out near RFD around 6:00pm, ORD 7:30pm and lasts for a good 6 hours or so...

 

Latest HRRR..a little more generous with qpf totals...still snowing a little bit in N IL

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Radio said start time around 3 to 4pm, not sure of the end time.

 

I am done with the models and going off radar now.

 

T minus 3 hours!

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

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Tom, it looks like Des Moines is just to the south of the Jackpot area on the 12Z ECMWF. Certainly looks closest to the NAM. I would be on edge if I were in the Des Moines Metro area. GFS and RGEM still saying yes, but looks like others are on the line with the southern extent of the precip. 

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Grid forecast total was slashed to 1-3" here. Roads will be bad no doubt with road chemicals rendered useless in this cold. 

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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Radio said start time around 3 to 4pm, not sure of the end time.

 

I am done with the models and going off radar now.

 

T minus 3 hours!

Thanks to you and Tom. Being in the snow biz, it's nice to know when to get started.

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Been watching the RAP too, and that 2" line has taken baby steps N in the last 2 runs. 4km NAM showing more like 5 or 6 IMBY. LOT just decreased my totals of 3-5" to 2-4"

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

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LOT:

 

TRACK-WISE THE MAIN SFC
FEATURE WILL CROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH THE BEST FORCING JUST
NORTH OF ITS TRACK. LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SUPPORT PEAK
AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST ASCENT DISPLACED
ABOVE THE PRIMARY SNOW GROWTH LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WITH
BETTER ALIGNMENT AS YOU WORK SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY HAMPER SNOW
EFFICIENCY NORTH WITH FINER FLAKES. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD
PONTIAC...WATSEKA...AND FOWLER SHOW MORE OPTIMAL SNOW PRODUCTION
AND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN OUR CWA...WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS FAVORED FURTHER
SOUTH. SNOW PROGRESSION STILL LOOKS ON TRACK BUT MAY NEED TO SPEED
ARRIVAL OF THE INTIAL WARM ADVECTION SNOW...NOW MOVING INTO
CENTRAL IOWA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
LIKELY TIGHTEN SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS AND ABOVE DISCUSSION WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST AND A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT UP TO THE 4-6 RANGE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH.

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

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LOT:

 

TRACK-WISE THE MAIN SFC

FEATURE WILL CROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH THE BEST FORCING JUST

NORTH OF ITS TRACK. LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SUPPORT PEAK

AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST ASCENT DISPLACED

ABOVE THE PRIMARY SNOW GROWTH LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WITH

BETTER ALIGNMENT AS YOU WORK SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY HAMPER SNOW

EFFICIENCY NORTH WITH FINER FLAKES. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD

PONTIAC...WATSEKA...AND FOWLER SHOW MORE OPTIMAL SNOW PRODUCTION

AND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST

TOTALS IN OUR CWA...WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS FAVORED FURTHER

SOUTH. SNOW PROGRESSION STILL LOOKS ON TRACK BUT MAY NEED TO SPEED

ARRIVAL OF THE INTIAL WARM ADVECTION SNOW...NOW MOVING INTO

CENTRAL IOWA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL

LIKELY TIGHTEN SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST

TRENDS AND ABOVE DISCUSSION WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES IN THE FAR

NORTHEAST AND A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT UP TO THE 4-6 RANGE ACROSS

THE FAR SOUTH.

I'm not sure if this was written a little while ago but they need to take another look as the latest HI-RES models keep increasing the qpf for our area.

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I'm not sure if this was written a little while ago but they need to take another look as the latest HI-RES models keep increasing the qpf for our area.

Latest SREF going a little bonkers but all of the hi-res models are increasing qpf as well so cannot really discount it.

15zsrefpost-266-0-43024000-1420486336.gif

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you thinking more snow for Chicago? I'm thinking 5-7" but might go higher if models show more  :D

Actually your numbers look pretty good but hopefully they can be nudged up slightly as we get closer to our start time. Hopefully it won't take too much to saturate the column.

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.UPDATE...

 

130 PM CST

 

HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE SOUTHERN TIER OF

COUNTIES...LIVINGSTON...FORD...IROQUOIS...BENTON...TO A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR THIS EVENING. WITH AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW

QUICKLY SPREADING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA PRODUCING SNOWFALL OF AN

INCH OR BETTER PER HOUR AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION

STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...FGEN FORCING LOOKS TO

FURTHER FOCUS INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO EARLY EVENING. AM

THINKING THAT THE PEAK INTENSITY/DURATION AND THEREFORE PEAK

AMOUNTS WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OR JUST SOUTH.

AFTER DISCUSSION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS REGARDING THE INTENSE SNOW

RATES...IMPACTS...AND THE FACT THAT 6-7 INCHES IS LOOKING MORE

FAVORED OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER HAVE

OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

 

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Wow, looking at the radar, this thing looks like its gonna pivot through central Iowa which would put me in the jackpot. Local met posted the low track and it looks further north, more in line with the NAM. I'm stoked. Cant wait to get home from work and watch this thing unload.

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Snowing between 1" and 2" an hour here in Sioux Falls, SD... About 2 inches on the ground with what looks like an expected storm total around 6-7 inches here locally.

 

Visibility is poor in the city, couldn't imagine how bad it is in the country/rural areas.

 

Glad I made it here to enjoy a decent snowstorm since we don't get them in Eastern Nebraska much anymore.

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Actually your numbers look pretty good but hopefully they can be nudged up slightly as we get closer to our start time. Hopefully it won't take too much to saturate the column.

There wont be any problems with virga in this system.  Dynamics are rather impressive for a Clipper...might call this a Clipper on "roids", ok, maybe not roids, but Peptides...LOL.

 

Precip shield just crossed over Cedar Rapids, IA and its snowing there.  Column will saturate with no problems.

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Do you guys think my flight still maybe delayed fi it's getting in at 10:25 p.m. @ Midway? Looks like the radar is filling in nicely in IA just wondering how far E the heaviest bands will push. New AFD seems like they are favoring the Southern part of the CWA. 

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Amazing how the heavier bands of snow have MUCH better dendrite growth. It's easy seen just with a casual glance out the window and watching the radar. The lesser radar returns=not very good accumulation snowflakes. Nearly 4" NW of Des Moines near Perry.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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