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April 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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The big rain event for much of Iowa is vanishing.  Much of the forcing goes north and the instability remains south.  Basically, the only chance for decent rain is down to only late Wednesday or Wednesday night as a line moves through.  The Euro gets drier every run.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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With yesterdays thundershower and the warm temperatures the grass started its spring grown and has that nice green look. And the spring flowers are well ahead of schedule. The overnight low here was 46 and the current temperature is 47.  The record highs for today and tomorrow are 81 so the expected highs in the upper 70's will be one of the warmest for both days.

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The model trend is not good as we head into mid April.  The GFS and Euro both show a long, blocky cool period.  Enjoy the warmth while it's here.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like the 1st 80's of the year are forecast for today and potentially tomorrow back home.  I really don't want to come back home now that I'm in full summer mode out here.  Like @Hawkeye just mentioned, the wx pattern for next week looks lousy.

An interesting second piece of energy rounding the base of the trough has been showing up on the modeling over the past couple days.  Sorta reminds me of a similar system over a week ago that took a very similar route.  Last night's 00z Euro showing some powerful winds yet again underneath the belly of a "lil beast".

 

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On a side note, I just saw a coyote walk across my driveway trying to scavenge for some food.  Last week, we had a pack of javelina's scour through our entire complex knocking over garbage bins at about 3:00 am.  My window was open and it was so loud that it woke me up.  I was like, "who they heck is taking out the garbage so early"?  Little did I know it was these dang pesky javelina's making themselves at home filling up their bellies.

Anyway, back to the wx, my gut feeling about the -NAO block showing up this month is pretty much a lock and a disappointment for warmth to continue for most of our members.  Geeze, both the EPS/GEFS are literally dropping an impressive Vortex over the GL's early the following week.  BTW, looking into the future, I predict a similar pattern for next December in my visions.  This warm season is going to provide a big clue wrt to the blocking patterns and a lot of unusual troughs this summer.

 

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The above aforementioned 500mb pattern is going to discontinue warmer temps for a little while.  00z EPS 5-day mean temps for Week 1 and 2...I assume there will be some colder days mixed in but generally 50's seem about right back home.  As long as the suns out, it wont' feel as bad.

 

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A brief thunderstorm with heavy rain moved thru this morning. It did have a SVR with it but weakened before hitting Lincoln. Updated spc for later today: 

73E5EA2F-D959-46C5-9327-3D536EEB3A58.png

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The model trend is not good as we head into mid April.  The GFS and Euro both show a long, blocky cool period.  Enjoy the warmth while it's here.

I will gladly take these days of warmth and trade with cooler days than just have cool crappy days all April like the last few years.  

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Grass is very green, it almost looks like early summer and trees are rapidly budding. I would imagine hitting nearly 90 degrees sped up the process. I'm actually looking forward to upcoming cooler stretch. Highs look to be mainly be in the 50s and 60s, a lot more ideal than some of the nasty cold in recent Aprils. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Both the official high today of 77 and the 76 that most of the day was in will be the 4th warmest high of any April 6th in Grand Rapids recorded history. At Muskegon the 68 is the 6th warmest and at Holland their 75 is also their 6th warmest. Down at Kalamazoo their 79 is the 5th warmest and to the east Lansing with 78 will come in at 4th.
At this time it is cloudy (dark to the west) and some what windy and 73 here.

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I love seeing this happen for the Rockies...more Front Range snows???  Record cold knifing down the leeward side of the Rockies next week.  What a amplified 500mb pattern cometh.   Those pics @Madtown posted may have snow OTG by mid April.

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Models are all over the place for rain chances in eastern Iowa.  Looking at the last couple runs of the HRRR it seems to be somewhat consistent in bringing rain into eastern Iowa after 6pm.  With a quarter to half inch possible.  We had one vivid lightning strike and extremely loud thunder this morning, but it was gone as quick as it came. 

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I heard a couple dull rumbles this morning as a decent line slid to the east of Cedar Rapids.  I only received some sprinkles.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The extended sure does seem to be trending more damp and chilly. I hope we can at least get a decent amount of rain and not just several days of cloudiness. I guess there's also a slim chance we're not with snow either. Measurable snowfall occurances decrease abruptly after around April 15th, so I'd probably bet on cold rains if anything. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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30 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

One line of rain just pouring down on me.  Can't be more than a few miles wide on radar.  Places east and west in the county getting nothing.  Weather is sure interesting.

We haven't seen much rain at all with this storm system at this point, which is pretty disappointing so far to say the least.

We have had a few brief showers (two with a couple claps of thunder) pass by over the last 36 hours, however not much else than that... so far only 0.05 of rain in my rain gauge storm total. 

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Finally, we just got our first thunderstorm of the year.... pretty decent lightning and thunder with heavy rain.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yesterdays official high of 80 at Muskegon set a new record for the date at Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo and Lansing the high of 80 was the 2nd warmest for the date the. The high of 79 was also the 2nd warmest for the date there.  The overnight low here was 60 and it looks like the overnight low at GRR was 57. At this time it is 62 with a few sprinkles here.

 

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I ended up with 0.88” rainfall total. 0.21” after midnight helped boost my total a little. Lawns and hay and rye fields are really green, plus the apricot trees are in full bloom since Tuesday.

Now it’s looking like below average or cool temperatures, especially next week and beyond.😟 The 4” soil temperatures were at near record levels of around the low 60°s yesterday! The thick snow cover prevented deep frost and gave it an early boost, but soil temperature is going back down.

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I hope everyone was able to enjoy the record stretch of warmer weather, esp back home where Chicago saw back to back 80's for only the 4th time in history in early April.

 

Image

 

Now, the ugly truth on how weather can turn and become bipolar in April which we have seen in recent years.  The climate models never saw this coming but there is a significant cold shot coming down the central Plains next week as the North American hemispheric pattern blocks up to a creeping crawl.  It appears likely that a lobe of the Polar Air gripping Alaska and ushering record cold up north, will come make a visit into the lower 48.

First it was Europe's turn, now it is the U.S..... https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/04/07/record-cold-europe-alaska/

@CentralNebWeather, this may be your last chance of seeing snow for the year...

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Big time snows heading for the Rockies...let's not forget the N GL's and Upper MW...

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Meantime, a spectacular looking GL's cutter the works will bring bountiful rains for the GL's region this weekend..

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The weather pattern is surely not boring and I'm geeking over here seeing what is transpiring around the globe.  While I continue to bake out here in the low/mid 90's, the wx forecasters are calling for a "cool down" next week into the upper 80's...LOL

 

 

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9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Up to .63” of rain so far today along with .07” yesterday so .70” event total through 1120p.

Finally got into some decent rain showers and even had a little bit of thunder, during the evening and overnight here.  

Went from only 0.05" in the rain gauge yesterday afternoon, to over 1" at 9am this morning - with probably another 0.25 to 0.50" to come. This didn't turn out too bad after all, even after missing out on the storms the other night. 

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3 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Finally got into some decent rain showers and even had a little bit of thunder, during the evening and overnight here.  

Went from only 0.05" in the rain gauge yesterday afternoon, to over 1" at 9am this morning - with probably another 0.25 to 0.50" to come. This didn't turn out too bad after all, even after missing out on the storms the other night. 

Yep, I’m up to 1.3” of rain now from the last couple of days. Definitely will be mowing this weekend!

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The Fri/Sat system is looking very dynamic which would support issuing a storm thread if this were Winter...what do you guys think???  This thing is wrapping up into a potent storm.  No snow with this but quite the wind/rain and severe wx threat down south.  We don't see systems like these very often in early April.

day2otlk_0600.gif

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

I hope everyone was able to enjoy the record stretch of warmer weather, esp back home where Chicago saw back to back 80's for only the 4th time in history in early April.

 

Image

 

Now, the ugly truth on how weather can turn and become bipolar in April which we have seen in recent years.  The climate models never saw this coming but there is a significant cold shot coming down the central Plains next week as the North American hemispheric pattern blocks up to a creeping crawl.  It appears likely that a lobe of the Polar Air gripping Alaska and ushering record cold up north, will come make a visit into the lower 48.

First it was Europe's turn, now it is the U.S..... https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/04/07/record-cold-europe-alaska/

@CentralNebWeather, this may be your last chance of seeing snow for the year...

3.png

 

Big time snows heading for the Rockies...let's not forget the N GL's and Upper MW...

1.png

 

Meantime, a spectacular looking GL's cutter the works will bring bountiful rains for the GL's region this weekend..

2.png

 

 

The weather pattern is surely not boring and I'm geeking over here seeing what is transpiring around the globe.  While I continue to bake out here in the low/mid 90's, the wx forecasters are calling for a "cool down" next week into the upper 80's...LOL

 

 

To be honest, I hadn't been really looking at snow chances around here.  That would be a nice way to end the snow season.

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There was an EF-0 tornado last evening in far sw Cedar Rapids, near Menards.  It damaged some mobile homes.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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