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April 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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5 hours ago, westMJim said:

Yesterdays official high of 80 at Muskegon set a new record for the date at Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo and Lansing the high of 80 was the 2nd warmest for the date the. The high of 79 was also the 2nd warmest for the date there.  The overnight low here was 60 and it looks like the overnight low at GRR was 57. At this time it is 62 with a few sprinkles here.

 

That high of 79 should read the high of 79 at Holland was the 2nd warmest for the date.

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With clouds and light rain now moving in it looks like most locations have reached their high for today. The reading of 74 at Grand Rapids ties the record high for the date last set in 1931. The reading of 74 at Muskegon is good for 2nd place. At Holland their 72 is good for 3rd place and at Lansing their high of 72 is good for a 5th place tie. At this time it is 72 here with some light rain falling. I will update if it gets warmer later in the day but at this time it dose not look like that will happen.

 

 

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We’ve been getting steady moderate/heavy rain all afternoon in Lincoln. Wind chill is around 40 as well. Just 1.5 hrs to the west Grand Island is 66 and sunny. You don’t see that too often, usually it’s the other way around as a cold front is approaching.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

The Fri/Sat system is looking very dynamic which would support issuing a storm thread if this were Winter...what do you guys think???  This thing is wrapping up into a potent storm.  No snow with this but quite the wind/rain and severe wx threat down south.  We don't see systems like these very often in early April.

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It’s fine with me if you start a thread.

I noticed a fish, then I saw someone else on Twitter also did. Haha 

 

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Models are shifting the wrapped-up Saturday system farther nw.  They now have eastern Iowa in the rain and wind.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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9 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

We had 62/100 yesterday & today. Ended  the windy dry spell.  Solid mowing mon to wed, more  fri. Hope to catch the next low to keep bumping  april precip  toward 3 inches by months  end.

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I always love the smell of a freshly mowed lawn.  Great job and it looks vibrant and healthy!

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Looking like a rough day in the south.  I wouldn't be to surprised if the ENH was expanded north later into the Memphis area.

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It may be a while till the severe pattern shift back farther north into our Sub.  I'm thinking later parts of May...hbu?

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

It may be a while till the severe pattern shift back farther north into our Sub.  I'm thinking later parts of May...hbu?

I think last few days of April and the first few days of may could produce.  Signature storm in the pattern will be returning.  I think may will be a very rough month for severe weather for many of us.

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What in the world is going on in the Strat???  The last and final warming event for the season is looking to end with a bang way up north in our atmosphere across the Pole.  I don't recall seeing this happen so late in the season and will likely play a big role towards the end of the month.  #SolarMin

 

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Both GEFS/EPS are displacing the Polar Vortex into NE Canada or thereabouts.  Boy, what an interesting weather pattern.

Parts of the S MW may need to watch out for late season frosts/freeze's...

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Wild stuff here...

 
Extreme *all-time cold* in Alaska early this morning. Bettles just fell to -38°F breaking the April monthly record low of -37°F (April 7, 1986), records since 1951. Saturday morning will also be in the -30s.
 
 
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This is going to turn the wx pattern pretty ugly for a large part of the lower 48 to finish off the month...esp the northern/eastern parts of our Sub....signs of the southern ridge will pop in very late April into May.  @Clinton, that's where I think the S Plains and possibly your region could benefit, or rather, score some severe wx from this pattern.  Otherwise, the remainder of our members I don't see any good chances for severe wx until later in May.  The final SSW warming event coupled with the blocking setting up and surrounding North American over the next few weeks is wild.  Lock in the central CONUS cool pool in the extended.  

 

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00z EPS...cross polar flow...I think we've seen this before...Week 2 trending cooler...

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Parts of ND and MT where's it's been a terrible season could do well with this storm. I feel like that's kind of a big "F you", I like having most of seasonal snow in Nov-March. It looks like another 40s and rain for eastern Nebraska. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Not just once, but there could very well be several visitations of lobes of very cold air coming down off the N Pole/Polar Vortex.  Ummm, ya...it looks like nature isn't going to "flip the script" this April and looking like it wants to dial up some record cold...again...this time its the 2021 version.  

Late season Freezes are showing up in the extended on basically all the models now...it'll be a shock to my sisters system after staying here with us in AZ for the last couple weeks.

 

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Looking back a couple weeks ago, the climate models had a decent looking April into May, but that has since turned very "grey"...really though, they all missed on the Greenland Block which has been a signature part of this years LRC.  Then you add the tanking -EPO, +PNA and the unusual late season behavior of the Polar Vortex...well, not a pretty picture to say the least.  I will say, that this warm season is going to be quite interesting as troughs block up this summer.  Based on the trends in the LR modeling and how this pattern is evolving, one can conceive that as we get through the "spring shoulder season" the North American 500mb pattern is showing signs of amplification.

 

 

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25 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

69 degrees and even better, BARELY ANY WIND today!!

It seems like every D**n day, it’s been windy.

Cold front was supposed to move through today too and bump up the winds late this afternoon, but thankfully that hasn’t happened yet.

I know today’s awesome. I saw something on Facebook from NWS Wichita a few days ago that it’s the windiest spring there so far in at least 10 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re something similar.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco, wet snow possible late week:

At least small precipitation chances (PoPs) currently litter the entire late Tues night-Saturday daytime time frame, but by far the highest-confidence timeframe for perhaps widespread measurable precipitation (and thus our highest PoPs) is Thurs night-Fri night. While current forecast surface temperatures support this mainly as a cold rain, temps slightly aloft certainly suggest that at least limited pockets of slushy wet snow cannot be ruled out, especially in our Nebraska zones and especially during the colder-favored overnight/morning hours. Obviously still a few days early to even start diving into precipitation type details here, but something to keep in mind as late-week draws closer.

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Yesterday was a perfect day weather wise, 74 with light winds.  Looks like it will be awhile before I get another one like that.  Local office agrees lol.

It'll be a cool start around 40 today but get out there and enjoy what should be a beautiful day!

Today: Sunny, highs 68-76
Mon: Not as nice
Tue: Not as nice
Wed: Not as nice
Thu: Not as nice
Friday: Not as nice
The Foreseeable Future: Not as nice#TodayIsTheDay

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30 minutes ago, Tom said:

How many of you have leaf out???  Vegetation growing???  If the 00z Euro is right, a hard freeze is coming down the pipe early next week.

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Some trees are starting to bud out.  Grass is growing, mowed twice already.  Farmers are just getting ready to plant in the coming days.  

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Tom said:

Thanks for sharing the info.  I'm wondering if the buds on trees, fruit crop, etc will be impacted.  Might be a bit early to plant but I guess the farmers know better.

They have been out preparing the land in the last week from what I've been seeing.  Some of farmers always want to be the first to plant.  In a typical year, they will plant from the middle of April through about the 10th of May.  As we know, typical years are hard to come by it seems.  Around here the primary crops are corn and soybeans.  With the forecasted colder weather later this week, I would bet they might hold off into next week, but who knows.

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