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April 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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I'm seeing a late month Severe Wx outbreak across the Plains states and quite possibly into the eastern corn belt region.  A powerful trough will come out of the Rockies (27th-30th) and plug into deep GOM moisture and pull up some early season heat and humidity.  This could very well be a big ticket outbreak.  Signs of an active pattern forthcoming as we roll into May.

The power of the Greenland Block and Alaskan Ridge...impressive trends and unfortunately this means the warmth next weekend across the Plains is being delayed a day or two and looking less impressive.  Quite the displaced Polar Vortex.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_fh168_trend.gif

 

 

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

That is a fascinating map to see how much wetter things are getting up across the N Rockies/GL's/SE coast as well as the dryness that has transpired in the west/SW.  It would be nice to have seen what a map of Canada looks like.  I'd bet that it has cooled across the SW/C regions if you would take the map above and sorta see the cooler air up across the Dakotas/MT.   You now, over the past 5 years or more, the N Rockies (esp MT) has seen tremendous amounts of snow in recent Winters and I've read that the glaciers up there are beginning to Grow.  The national parks actually had to take down the signs which showed the glaciers were melting away...funny how nature turns things around in a positive light!

Be careful lumping eastern montana into the northern rockies.  Eastern Montana is the same geography and climate as the western dakoatas and NE Wyoming...arid high plains.  

I am curious if the dropping of the 1988-89 drought has an effect on the averages.  Does 2012 drought equally replace it?  My Dad and uncles talk about how dry the 80s were in general for north dakota and nw minnesota, but I'm not sure if this is selective memory or not.

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3 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

Be careful lumping eastern montana into the northern rockies.  Eastern Montana is the same geography and climate as the western dakoatas and NE Wyoming...arid high plains.  

I am curious if the dropping of the 1988-89 drought has an effect on the averages.  Does 2012 drought equally replace it?  My Dad and uncles talk about how dry the 80s were in general for north dakota and nw minnesota, but I'm not sure if this is selective memory or not.

I lived in the Twin Cities in 1988. Was 15 yrs old. 2012 here in IA. I would say the 1988 drought was worse in MN compared to 2012 but that 2012 in IA was worse than 1988. I have data to back it up. (see below) Some recollections of the 1988- never seen grass as dead and brown so widespread. Water rationing (even house #'s got to water  on even days of the month, Odd, on odd #'s )- but I grew up on lake and we pumped water, even with that we struggled to keep our lawn green and garden watered. Was at my grandma' / grandpa 60th wedding anniversary party on July 31st' 1988 near Faribault,MN, MSP got to 105F, I don't think it's even been close to as warm in MSP since, and was 107-108 at some reporting sites in S.MN. --*** the 99.1F AVG MAX temp for July of 36' for DSM is simply NEVER going to be touched ***

First off Twin Cities-

image.png.22de821ac175b6707d33215683b323f7.pngimage.png.65d768c420c7875081028c0213bdb820.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Precip for MSP- until AUG of 1988 it was neck and neck with 1894 as driest ever. I actually remember Bud Kraehling on  WCCO comparing 88' at the time to 1894. RIP BUD- died at the ripe old age of 96 and did weather casts well into his 80s" image.png.e2b57e090581c13d1864cca6a09f0158.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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On 4/18/2021 at 7:39 AM, Tom said:

That is a fascinating map to see how much wetter things are getting up across the N Rockies/GL's/SE coast as well as the dryness that has transpired in the west/SW.  It would be nice to have seen what a map of Canada looks like.  I'd bet that it has cooled across the SW/C regions if you would take the map above and sorta see the cooler air up across the Dakotas/MT.   You now, over the past 5 years or more, the N Rockies (esp MT) has seen tremendous amounts of snow in recent Winters and I've read that the glaciers up there are beginning to Grow.  The national parks actually had to take down the signs which showed the glaciers were melting away...funny how nature turns things around in a positive light!

Maybe you can find some more maps through this link or at least clearer images of the maps I posted.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-1991-2020-us-climate-normals-update-april-20

A few more maps here...

 

 

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The overnight low here at my house was 43 that looks to be the warmest low for a while. With highs in the upper 30’s forecasted for tomorrow and the low 40’s on Wednesday if that plays out we would be looking at some of the coldest maximums for both days. The record coldest maximum for April 22nd is 37 in 1914 and again in 1943 it was 38 in 2013. The record low for Wednesday morning is 22 set in 1953 all then 24 set in 2013 all other years were 25 or better. So April 20 and 21, 2021 could be one of the coldest for both dates.

 

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There was a total of 0.17" of rain here with the cold front that came thru. The official rain fall was 0.12" at the airport. The high here for the day was 51 and at GRR the high looks to have been 53. At this time it is mostly cloudy and 45 here and 43 at the airport. Any snow that falls now looks to be the the SE of the Grand Rapids area. 

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Had a freeze warning last night, another one tonight, and they are probably going to issue one for tomorrow night as well. So far we've had several and while it's gone below freezing multiple times this month, the sub freezing temps haven't been low enough or lasted long enough to really hurt anything at my place and I haven't heard of any damage elsewhere either. Flowers, plants, etc are all still doing fine. Made it down to 28 last night, and supposed to get down to 30 the next couple nights.

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The weather pattern looking to warm up and get active.  Reed Timmer mentioning a potential severe weather outbreak next week.

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Watching closely the potential for a widespread severe weather outbreak from eastern Tornado Alley into the Mid-South with monster trough ejection on April 27-28, 2021, on the 10 year anniversary of the infamous Super Outbreak in 2011. We are approaching peak season for severe wx

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3.5 inches of snow fell here in my part of KC. Started snowing at 3:30 am and coated grass, cars, and elevated areas. Stuck to everything except the streets. (streets might have gotten slushy for a bit when that heavy band moved through) KCI needed 2.8 inches to set an all time record for April 20th,I think they made it.

Now.....at 12:05, barely can tell it snowed. Almost totally gone. The ole April sun angle got to it. 

What a morning!

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12 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

3.5 inches of snow fell here in my part of KC. Started snowing at 3:30 am and coated grass, cars, and elevated areas. Stuck to everything except the streets. (streets might have gotten slushy for a bit when that heavy band moved through) KCI needed 2.8 inches to set an all time record for April 20th,I think they made it.

Now.....at 12:05, barely can tell it snowed. Almost totally gone. The ole April sun angle got to it. 

What a morning!

Yep, same here.  I see just a little snow on the roof of our school as my classroom faces north.

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Models agree on a big warmup early next week.  The latest Euro has Iowa reaching 80+º Tuesday.  Unfortunately, models are also in fair agreement that a trough will move in later in the week and stick around for a while.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

The weather pattern looking to warm up and get active.  Reed Timmer mentioning a potential severe weather outbreak next week.

Tweet

 
See new Tweets

@ReedTimmerAccu

 
 
Watching closely the potential for a widespread severe weather outbreak from eastern Tornado Alley into the Mid-South with monster trough ejection on April 27-28, 2021, on the 10 year anniversary of the infamous Super Outbreak in 2011. We are approaching peak season for severe wx

Image

Yup. On to this now...

I'd say if there were warning signs, snow in April here is one. Going to be watching closely.

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11 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Had a freeze warning last night, another one tonight, and they are probably going to issue one for tomorrow night as well. So far we've had several and while it's gone below freezing multiple times this month, the sub freezing temps haven't been low enough or lasted long enough to really hurt anything at my place and I haven't heard of any damage elsewhere either. Flowers, plants, etc are all still doing fine. Made it down to 28 last night, and supposed to get down to 30 the next couple nights.

Upper 20°s usually isn’t bad, but mid 20°s can damage more sensitive plants.

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It looks like there will be some scattered convective snow shower activity back home.  Full disclosure, I had a flight booked and paid for to fly in today but I cancelled it and stayed back.  Prob going to delay my trip back to Chi for a couple weeks at least.

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I just seen a black squirrel in my yard. I thought that might be rare, but after looking up, it looks like they are becoming more common in Michigan.

Yesterday’s highs were some of the coldest for the date. The high at Grand Rapids of 40 was the 4th coldest maximum for the dated. At Lansing their high of 39 was the 5th coldest at Muskegon the high of 42 was their 9th coldest. At Kalamazoo the high of just 39 was their 3rd coldest and at Holland the high of 41 was their 4th coldest. For today with highs forecasted in the low 40’s could be the 2nd day in a row with some of the coldest highs. The overnight low here at my house was 25 but it looks like it was 27 at the airport that low of 27 is good for the 7th coldest low but 25 would have been the 3rd coldest low. At this time it is cloudy and 31 here.

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Record cold, to record snow.....gotta love the volatility of April wx in the heartland...

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A record breaking 2.0 inches of snow at the National Weather Service office in Indianapolis so far as of 10:35 PM EDT, breaking the previous record of only a trace last set in the year 2000. #INwx #nwsind

 

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We got colder than expected overnight.  The personal station closest to my house bottomed out at 23º and the airport hit 20º.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, westMJim said:

I just seen a black squirrel in my yard. I thought that might be rare, but after looking up, it looks like they are becoming more common in Michigan.

Yesterday’s highs were some of the coldest for the date. The high at Grand Rapids of 40 was the 4th coldest maximum for the dated. At Lansing their high of 39 was the 5th coldest at Muskegon the high of 42 was their 9th coldest. At Kalamazoo the high of just 39 was their 3rd coldest and at Holland the high of 41 was their 4th coldest. For today with highs forecasted in the low 40’s could be the 2nd day in a row with some of the coldest highs. The overnight low here at my house was 25 but it looks like it was 27 at the airport that low of 27 is good for the 7th coldest low but 25 would have been the 3rd coldest low. At this time it is cloudy and 31 here.

I see a lot of Black Squirrels by the Lake Michigan coastal areas.  Common in Grand Haven it seemed when I lived there.  

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Models have been suggesting the big trough later next week will slow or even cutoff over our region, leading to multiple cool days.  This morning's Euro is the first Euro run in a while that does not do this.  It has the trough progressing steadily in and out of the region, allowing more mild air to move in by the end of the run.  Let's hope this sticks.  We don't need more cutoff crap.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS shows a few tenths of an inch of rain Friday in Iowa, while the Euro keeps it down in Missouri.  Both models show highs well into the 70s on Monday and Tuesday, which will feel amazing after this prolonged streak of cold weather.  It's been a pretty miserable two weeks.  Only one or two nice days in that stretch and those were basically around normal for highs.  I can't wait for summer.  I hope we get an early surge of heat and humidity this year by mid May. 

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14 hours ago, westMJim said:

I just seen a black squirrel in my yard. I thought that might be rare, but after looking up, it looks like they are becoming more common in Michigan.

Yesterday’s highs were some of the coldest for the date. The high at Grand Rapids of 40 was the 4th coldest maximum for the dated. At Lansing their high of 39 was the 5th coldest at Muskegon the high of 42 was their 9th coldest. At Kalamazoo the high of just 39 was their 3rd coldest and at Holland the high of 41 was their 4th coldest. For today with highs forecasted in the low 40’s could be the 2nd day in a row with some of the coldest highs. The overnight low here at my house was 25 but it looks like it was 27 at the airport that low of 27 is good for the 7th coldest low but 25 would have been the 3rd coldest low. At this time it is cloudy and 31 here.

Yeah I’ve often wondered where black squirrels came from! I’ve seen a lot of black ones in Iowa City when I worked up there before 2008, and they’re probably even more common now. 

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6 hours ago, bud2380 said:

GFS shows a few tenths of an inch of rain Friday in Iowa, while the Euro keeps it down in Missouri.  Both models show highs well into the 70s on Monday and Tuesday, which will feel amazing after this prolonged streak of cold weather.  It's been a pretty miserable two weeks.  Only one or two nice days in that stretch and those were basically around normal for highs.  I can't wait for summer.  I hope we get an early surge of heat and humidity this year by mid May. 

Awfully boring as well. I don’t like wasting April with cold and dry.

 I had a low of 24° this morning. Not to much damage except most or many of the apricots froze. The radishes are up and look ok, including the few I left uncovered just to see how they fare comparatively.

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Forgot to mention that my brother who lives near Carbondale in southern IL, had a little accumulating snow yesterday and lower 30°s this morning which is amazing in that area this time of the year! And my sister in south-central Kansas also reported enough snow to make it look all white. Not sure if my brother in northern Indiana got snow or even if he’s back from his winter home in Arizona.

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22 hours ago, westMJim said:

I just seen a black squirrel in my yard. I thought that might be rare, but after looking up, it looks like they are becoming more common in Michigan.

Yesterday’s highs were some of the coldest for the date. The high at Grand Rapids of 40 was the 4th coldest maximum for the dated. At Lansing their high of 39 was the 5th coldest at Muskegon the high of 42 was their 9th coldest. At Kalamazoo the high of just 39 was their 3rd coldest and at Holland the high of 41 was their 4th coldest. For today with highs forecasted in the low 40’s could be the 2nd day in a row with some of the coldest highs. The overnight low here at my house was 25 but it looks like it was 27 at the airport that low of 27 is good for the 7th coldest low but 25 would have been the 3rd coldest low. At this time it is cloudy and 31 here.

If allowed, enough black squirrels are said to overrun fox squirrels or "reds". They're stronger and more aggressive. That's probably why you're seeing more of them as time goes. That's my understanding of it.

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