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April 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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The last few runs off the EPS is suggesting that a lot of our members from the MW on north and west will have temps AN to finish off the month and last into the opening of May.  Nice trend in temps as well as an uptick in rainfall chances.

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The next 30 days off the JMA weeklies...some warmth does try to work into the pattern in early May but then reverses course.  We shall see what the Euro Weeklies say later today.  CFSv2 maintains a cooler signal and very wet/active pattern for the majority of the central CONUS.

Temp...

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Precip...

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Yesterday was one of the coldest April 21st in the area. At Grand Rapids the official high of 42 was the 3rd coldest maximum and the official low of 26 was the 5th coldest low. And the official snow fall of 0.3” was the 3rd snowiest for the date. At Holland the high/low of 41/26 was the 2nd coldest for the date. I had a overnight low this morning of 22.5 it looks like the official low at GRR was 25. That 25 will be the 4th coldest low for today and if my unofficial low of 22.5 was official that would be the coldest low for the date.  At this time it is partly cloudy and 30 here.

 

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1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

If allowed, enough black squirrels are said to overrun fox squirrels or "reds". They're stronger and more aggressive. That's probably why you're seeing more of them as time goes. That's my understanding of it.

That is also my understanding that black squirrels are more aggressive.

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The official overnight low of 25 is the 2nd coldest low for any April 22nd at Grand Rapids. The coldest low of 24 was tied just last year. The low was 24 also in 1986 and 1950. The month of April is now down to +1.9 while above the 30 year average it is well below where it was before this cool down.

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It's going to start feeling like early Summer for some of you across the Plains and Upper MW....as the west coast ridge fires up and blossoms into the seasons first legit Heat Wave across Cali and the SW late next week, this will ultimately push east and usher in some delightful warm weather.

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The southern/eastern ag belt look wet over the next 7 days...multiple severe wx opportunities for @OKwx2k4... @Clintonand KC folks may be in the zone as well for the mid week system next week.

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The midweek system has turned to nothing for Iowa.  The northern stream dominates and sweeps through, quietly.  Once again, all the action is well south.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Kind of unrelated, but I just moved from North Lincoln to southeast. Not like 70th and Old Cheney southeast but like 91st and Pine Lake southeast LOL. Kind of tempted to bring my PWS from my parents place up here, especially since I'm so far from the airport now. That is if it still even functions properly. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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It continues to be rather cool here.  We got stuck in the low 50s yesterday and clouds have held us back again today.  Sunday looks like the coolest of the weekend :( .  I'm really looking forward to the big warmup beginning Monday.

The latest Euro has us in the 70s every day except one from day three to day ten.  The GFS is cooler later this week.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NWS cut temps today in the morning package a full 5F- from 65F to 60F and with clouds expected to last most of the day and currently 38F- 60F may be a stretch though HRRR and RAP show rapid warming around 2-3pm.  Snow showers being reported across NW IA.  Currently record cold in the Arrowhead of MN with Hibbing 15F (record was 17F in 1967) - along with a plethora of mid to upper teens elsewhere. April- after a bomb of a start warm has now gone below normal but will likely finish slightly above but certainly has not felt above for the past 2 weeks or so. image.png.b36d73738f4926c1ccf9344b35337d1e.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Good morning from Pinetop, AZ where the elevation is about 7,200 ft.  It’s a cool, crisp 48F this morning.  Yesterday, was a very breezy day up in the mountains while in the valley it warmed into the 90’s.  The temp topped out at 65F up here under prestige blue skies.  I’ve never been up in the White Mountains in eastern AZ so this was a first and I will say that I’m impressed with what I’ve seen.  The forests in this region are thicker and there are more pines than in any part of this state.  It sorta reminds me of places that I’ve been to up in the Northwoods of Wisconsin to be honest.  It feels and looks more like a mountain town as in Colorado or thereabouts.
 

You know me, I’m always on the prowl looking for snow so I decided to check out Sunrise Ski Resort.  It was 52F at the entrance.  It’s to bad it was closed but I was able to get some video of the remaining snow from the winter.  This is the 3rd ski resort I’ve been to here in AZ and prob the 2nd best considering the views and location.  Snow bowl up in Flagstaff hands down has the best conditions for winter enthusiasts.

 

I’m heading back to the valley today and driving through Globe.  I’ll try to take some more pictures from my travels.  Have a great day!

 

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Big differences in severe weather and precipitation amounts between the GFS model and the euro. The GFS is much further south giving me only about a quarter of an inch of rain where is the Euro gives me nearly 2 in of rain.  Euro has support from the Canadian I'm kind of leaning that way at the moment. 

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This April has sure has its up and downs temperature wise. So far this month has has 10 days with means above average and 14 days of below average means. The current mean at Grand Rapids of 47.5 is +0.7 but earlier in the month it was well over +5.0 and now looks to end the month within a degree of average. At this time it is cloudy here and a cool 40.

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We will have to see what the high for today ends up at but there have only been 17 years in Grand Rapids history that April 25 has not reached 50 or better at the current time the official reading in 46. It is now 45 here and sunny. Of note in 14 of the 17 years it either was rain or it snowed so not many of the below 50° years were sunny. 

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The HRRR has the temp surging into the low 90s in eastern Nebraska Monday.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I thought there might be a bit more sleet in the bright band on the back edge of the precip, but it was just light rain.  I picked up about 0.02".

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The HRRR has the temp surging into the low 90s in eastern Nebraska Monday.

Classic lol. Today is only the 4th day of the month with a high in the 70s but we've had no issue being stuck in the upper 40s/50s or surging into the 80s/low 90s. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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The official overnight low at GRR looks to be 37 so far. Here at my house the low so far has been 39. There have been a few sprinkles of rain here. At this time it is cloudy and somewhat breezy and 39. So far this April there have been 10 days warmer than average and 15 days below average many days on both sides have been 10° or more from average.

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20 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

well this week has turned into a dud for any kind of big severe weather event. Looks to be fairly quiet going forward as well.

Yeah, it may be mid May before we see decent storm action.

On the plus side, we've risen 30º from sunrise to noon.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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