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The overnight low both here and officially at the airport was 16. Unless there is a surprise big April or May snow storm (it has happened in the past) Grand Rapids with 45.8” of snow so far this season will end up with the least amount of snow fall for a winter season since the winter of 1982/83. It will also be just the 2nd time since the winter of 1982/83 that less than 50” has fallen. And of the 45.8” that did fall this past winter 30.6” fell in February and of the 30.6” that fell in February 28.1” of that fell in 22 days. 

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Don’t see this every day.. Occurred Friday in Lockett ,Texas Picture compliments of Capital Weather Gang

I know this is quite distant geographically - but I came across this pic of the St.Vincent eruption in the Carib-- a really cool pic.

Good morning from Pinetop, AZ where the elevation is about 7,200 ft.  It’s a cool, crisp 48F this morning.  Yesterday, was a very breezy day up in the mountains while in the valley it warmed into the

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April looks very April like for once.  Cool nights, mild days and off and on rain.  Nothing extreme.  Haven't had an April like that in a while it seems.  

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It is looking very likely that the seasons first widespread MW severe wx outbreak may be occurring next week as a vigorous trough comes out of the Rockies and "bowls" its way east.  00z Euro showing advertising a similar look to a system last year when IA saw a tornado outbreak near or close to the center of the cold core ULL.  I don't remember the exact dates, however, this system needs to be monitored closely.

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Loads of precip coming dialing up...

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Just like during the Winter, the IA magnet continues as we see bountiful precip for not only IA peeps, but a majority of the central Sub Forum.  Plenty of chances dialing up as blocking locks up north and storms track underneath.  

00z EPS through Sat...

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Through Week 2...

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The overnight low here at my house was 29 the official overnight low at GRR was 31. Over the next week with highs in the mid to upper 60's and low in the 40's to low 50's the green up should ramp up. That means we should start the grass cutting season soon. At this time it it cloudy and 42 here.
 

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65 Years ago!!!

The event passed where I now live by just a few blocks.

April 3, 1956, was one of the wildest days in west Michigan weather history, when a violent tornado tore a path through several West Michigan communities. It was one of several strong tornadoes to hit Michigan that day. Unlike this year March 1956 was cold with a mean temperature of 30.1 -5.5 below average. The high for the month was just 49 and that occurred on March 1st 8.4” of snow fell on the 23rd and the low fell to +10 on the 24th April started out a little warmer with highs of 54 on the 1st and then 68 and the 2nd and then.

The afternoon of Tuesday, April 3rd, 1956 was warm and humid. Strong south winds had brought summer-like temperatures and humidity, with record highs of 77 at Muskegon and 78 at Grand Rapids. 80 at Holland and 79 at  Kalamazoo. Dew points were in the 60°s even near Lake Michigan. But a strong cold front was approaching from the west and out ahead of it, a line of violent thunderstorms had formed over Wisconsin and Illinois. By 1 PM, a tornado had roared through Bancroft, Wisconsin, killing two people. Another tornado would level the town of Berlin, Wisconsin an hour later, leaving 7 more dead and 50 injured. Michigan was put on alert. The U.S. Weather Bureau (forerunner of the National Weather Service) office in Grand Rapids began notifying the public and civil defense officials that the risk of tornadoes across western Michigan was increasing. Some schools began letting out early, anticipating the severe weather to come.

The storms crossed Lake Michigan, and when they reached the west coast of Lower Michigan by late afternoon, they immediately began producing tornadoes. Three hours of terror would follow. At least four powerful tornadoes would be spawned, tearing their way across the landscape. When it was over, areas from Saugatuck to Traverse City, and inland to Middleville and Rockford were dealing with unprecedented destruction. Almost 20 people were dead and hundreds injured. Dozens of homes were obliterated. Many people’s lives were irrevocably changed.

The worst hit areas were Hudsonville and Standale, where entire neighborhoods were laid waste. Many people, some of them badly injured, helped in the immediate recovery by searching for neighbors trapped under the debris of what had been their homes. Police and National Guard units were dispatched to make sure roads were kept clear of sightseers, allowing the injured to be evacuated to hospitals. Dozens of seriously injured people were brought to hospitals in Grand Rapids, Holland, and Zeeland.

Here is a break down of some of the storms in west Michigan.

The first tornado to strike west Michigan that day began along the beach near Saugatuck at 5:45PM. This tornado would injure seven people, but miraculously cause no fatalities as it destroyed four homes and did heavy damage to several farms. The damage path began just south of Oval Beach in Saugatuck as it damaged or destroyed several buildings at Camp Gray, along with the beach house at Oval Beach. It then flattened the historic Saugatuck Lighthouse.

Shortly after the tornado that hit Saugatuck, Gibson, Graafschap and Holland had dissipated, another storm was bearing down on areas further east. The sky grew dark over Vriesland, a small settlement east of Zeeland, just after 6 PM. People watching it from near Hudsonville would see it grow from a narrow, pencil-like funnel to a large and menacing wedge-shaped tornado as it approached the town. It crossed M-21 near 48th street and then crossed New Holland Street, where several farm homes were demolished, and the tornado would claim its first fatality. Photos taken from the ground and from the air in the following days would show the scope of the destruction here.

The tornado continued to intensify and demolished several homes when it reached the intersection of Van Buren Street and 40th Avenue. Some homes were completely swept away. It continued northeast to 36th Avenue and Port Sheldon Street and claimed eight more victims in this area. Two people died in a car while trying to flee the storm. Witnesses saw the car lifted as high as the tops of the telephone poles before it crashed back to earth. Two people in the car survived.

Another four people died nearby on Port Sheldon Street when they were caught out in the open and struck by flying debris. The tornado would claim one last victim in the Hudsonville area near Baldwin Street and 28th Avenue. The tornado was photographed around this time from about 2 miles south. The photo shows a large tornado funnel in contact with the ground, along with the yellow sky and greenish storm clouds that were mentioned by many eyewitnesses.

The tornado crossed Bauer Road and Cottonwood Drive before roaring across the Grand River and Fennessy Lake. Witnesses observed the funnel turn colors as it moved over the water, and a spectacular display of electrical sparks as high tension wires were ripped apart in this area. A large swath of trees along the Grand River were felled by the winds. The water and mud from Fennessy Lake was picked up and plastered against the houses nearby.

Next in the path was the business district of Standale. Fortunately, it was after hours and the approaching tornado was visible from the higher ground to the east of the river so most people were able to get to shelter. One that didn’t was 89 year-old Anna Hart of Cummings Street. She was carried about 200 feet from the second floor of her house. She was the first of four fatalities in Kent County.

The main business section, centered on the corner of Kinney Avenue and Lake Michigan Drive was devastated. Clothing and other items from stores in this area were lifted up into the storm updraft and carried to the northeast, as far as Gladwin, 100 miles away. The tornado swept away homes on Kusterer Drive and Nixon Avenue before crossing Leonard Street but fortunately there were no fatalities here. 

Two more people would be killed on Vinecroft Street, off Bristol Avenue. A father of eight was killed as his house was blown apart and a woman was killed in the Vinecroft trailer park, which was obliterated by the tornado. The tornado crossed 3 Mile Road and then Alpine Avenue and headed into the Comstock Park area where it would take its 17th and final victim as a woman on 4 Mile Road was killed when her house collapsed on her.

The tornado destroyed several more homes on Childs and Leland Avenues before hitting the Lamoreaux Dairy, and some homes on North Division Avenue. The tornado path paralleled West River Drive and the Grand River, and destroyed several more homes along with the Brookhaven Trailer Park in this area, while devastating sections of Wakefield Avenue and Pine Island Drive.

From here, the tornado moved into a more rural area before brushing the western side of Rockford. The tornado continued northeast of Rockford and struck several farms, before ending just north of Trufant in Montcalm County.

As this tornado finally lifted about 7:30 PM, the final tornado of the day was touching down far to the south in Van Buren County.

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Happy Easter everyone!  Hope all of you can enjoy more time with your family and friends this year unlike last.  It's nice to see the weather cooperate.  I was seeing some social media posts from my friends back home and everyone was out and about enjoying the outdoors.  We torched here yesterday and tied a record high of 97F, but today we could possibly set a record high of 99F but that will depend on how much cirrus cloud cover develops.  In the meantime, looks like SPS is out lining the KS area for severe wx mid week.

day3otlk_0730.gif

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The temperature sure popped quickly this morning.  Cedar Rapids was down to 39 or 40º at 7am and the Waterloo airport hit 33º.  Three hours later everyone is in the 60s.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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With todays forecasted high in the upper 60's today had a chance to be in the top warmest April 4 in Grand Rapids recorded history. At this time it is mostly sunny and 65 here at my house. The current official reading of 60 is good for the 20th warmest April 4th of record at GRR.

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We just hit 70º, so today will easily be the warmest of the year so far.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Made it to 80.4 yesterday with a dewpoint in the mid 20s. What little wind there was during the day yesterday died off at sunset and the temps tanked pretty fast falling all the way down to 53 degrees by 1030. Pretty rare to see a drop that quickly without a cold frontal passage.

Severe weather looks pretty marginal with this system. Capping concerns on Tuesday and then too much clouds and precip on Wednesday. I actually am not a big fan of closed cut off lows and severe weather opportunities. A lot of times you have one hell of an ugly looking atmospheric column for winds with horrible veer back and the system moves so slow you have big issues with convective overturning.

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The mid 80s extend all the way up to Mason City.  That's a bit too warm.  When I'm busy cleaning up the garden 70s with a breeze is much better.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I just noticed there are a couple nice thunderstorms nw of Dubuque.

I'm still waiting for my first rumble of thunder this year.  The latest 3k NAM has no precip here til Wednesday.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looking to get some much-needed QPF here on Wednesday. The brush fires here recently have been ridiculous.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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I had a wonderful time yesterday with my sisters family in town.  My duties were in the kitchen and I cooked up some delicious food.  Lot's of leftovers.  Spent time at the pool earlier in the day before it go to hot as PHX tied another record high for the second day in a row (98F).  Well, the cool down the models were indicating last week for this week are no longer.  The streak of 90's shall continue into the weekend.  Full blown summer mode over here.  We skipped right from late winter into summer it seems as it was snowing in the mountains just about a week ago.

 

 

 

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"Wx Geek Alert"...taking a look at last night's 00z EPS, look way up north towards the N Pole and you can see the Vortex send a lobe down the western shores of Canada, down into the Upper MW/GL's by Day 7-10 where it stalls out.  Golly, that blocking is doing some weird stuff this Spring.  As the jet stream this week pretty much comes to a crawl, some interesting model runs are showing up for later in the week/weekend.

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Late season Spring snows are showing up for the North land...

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There are now flashes of lightning and rumbles of thunder here. So far just 0.03" of rain and the current temperature is 51 and that is the overnight low so far. Yesterdays official high of 71 at Grand Rapids was the 7th warmest for any April 4th there was a new record set at Muskegon with a high of 73 the old high was 72 set in 1942. The high of 72 at Kalamazoo was the 4th warmest for the date and the high of 74 at Holland was the 3rd warmest for the date. The record for today at GR is 81. At Muskegon it is 79 at Kalamazoo 80 at Lansing 81 all set in 1988 and at Holland it is 79 set in 1921.

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Here is a fun fact. At Grand Rapids While there have been only 3 April's where the high did not reach 70 (1950, 1961 and 1907) there have been 14 years where the warmest temperature in April was 85 or better (the record high for the month is 90) there have been 25 years when the months high has been 85 or better 30 years where the high has been 83 or better and 58 years where the high has been 80 or better. So having a warm day or two in April is not that unusual.

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Omaha was under a severe tstorm warning last night 2 different times, once until 1 am and then again until 2 am. The warnings were for collapsing showers that were producing wind gusts up to 60 mph.

Didn't have any kind of wind that strong here, but my weather station did show 2 different small heat bursts where the temp jumped up about 5 degrees and the humidity dropped a decent amount for a few minutes.

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The big rain event for much of Iowa is vanishing.  Much of the forcing goes north and the instability remains south.  Basically, the only chance for decent rain is down to only late Wednesday or Wednesday night as a line moves through.  The Euro gets drier every run.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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One rumble of thunder and a trace of rain here this (yesterday lol) morning.

 I tilled the garden and planted a row of radishes. Lots of local farmers are planting oats

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With yesterdays thundershower and the warm temperatures the grass started its spring grown and has that nice green look. And the spring flowers are well ahead of schedule. The overnight low here was 46 and the current temperature is 47.  The record highs for today and tomorrow are 81 so the expected highs in the upper 70's will be one of the warmest for both days.

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The model trend is not good as we head into mid April.  The GFS and Euro both show a long, blocky cool period.  Enjoy the warmth while it's here.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like the 1st 80's of the year are forecast for today and potentially tomorrow back home.  I really don't want to come back home now that I'm in full summer mode out here.  Like @Hawkeye just mentioned, the wx pattern for next week looks lousy.

An interesting second piece of energy rounding the base of the trough has been showing up on the modeling over the past couple days.  Sorta reminds me of a similar system over a week ago that took a very similar route.  Last night's 00z Euro showing some powerful winds yet again underneath the belly of a "lil beast".

 

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On a side note, I just saw a coyote walk across my driveway trying to scavenge for some food.  Last week, we had a pack of javelina's scour through our entire complex knocking over garbage bins at about 3:00 am.  My window was open and it was so loud that it woke me up.  I was like, "who they heck is taking out the garbage so early"?  Little did I know it was these dang pesky javelina's making themselves at home filling up their bellies.

Anyway, back to the wx, my gut feeling about the -NAO block showing up this month is pretty much a lock and a disappointment for warmth to continue for most of our members.  Geeze, both the EPS/GEFS are literally dropping an impressive Vortex over the GL's early the following week.  BTW, looking into the future, I predict a similar pattern for next December in my visions.  This warm season is going to provide a big clue wrt to the blocking patterns and a lot of unusual troughs this summer.

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_7.png

 

The above aforementioned 500mb pattern is going to discontinue warmer temps for a little while.  00z EPS 5-day mean temps for Week 1 and 2...I assume there will be some colder days mixed in but generally 50's seem about right back home.  As long as the suns out, it wont' feel as bad.

 

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A brief thunderstorm with heavy rain moved thru this morning. It did have a SVR with it but weakened before hitting Lincoln. Updated spc for later today: 

73E5EA2F-D959-46C5-9327-3D536EEB3A58.png

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The model trend is not good as we head into mid April.  The GFS and Euro both show a long, blocky cool period.  Enjoy the warmth while it's here.

I will gladly take these days of warmth and trade with cooler days than just have cool crappy days all April like the last few years.  

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Grass is very green, it almost looks like early summer and trees are rapidly budding. I would imagine hitting nearly 90 degrees sped up the process. I'm actually looking forward to upcoming cooler stretch. Highs look to be mainly be in the 50s and 60s, a lot more ideal than some of the nasty cold in recent Aprils. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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Today's Euro has low to mid 40s for highs next week.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Both the official high today of 77 and the 76 that most of the day was in will be the 4th warmest high of any April 6th in Grand Rapids recorded history. At Muskegon the 68 is the 6th warmest and at Holland their 75 is also their 6th warmest. Down at Kalamazoo their 79 is the 5th warmest and to the east Lansing with 78 will come in at 4th.
At this time it is cloudy (dark to the west) and some what windy and 73 here.

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00z Euro spinning up quiet the mid lat cyclone for the lower lakes region...if this wet/cool pattern has legs into May, it's not going to be an ideal planting season for the MW region.

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I love seeing this happen for the Rockies...more Front Range snows???  Record cold knifing down the leeward side of the Rockies next week.  What a amplified 500mb pattern cometh.   Those pics @Madtown posted may have snow OTG by mid April.

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Models are all over the place for rain chances in eastern Iowa.  Looking at the last couple runs of the HRRR it seems to be somewhat consistent in bringing rain into eastern Iowa after 6pm.  With a quarter to half inch possible.  We had one vivid lightning strike and extremely loud thunder this morning, but it was gone as quick as it came. 

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Todays official high of 78 is the earliest day to reach 78 since 2005. At this time it is rather dark to the west and the current unofficial temperature here is 80 and some rain has just started.

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I heard a couple dull rumbles this morning as a decent line slid to the east of Cedar Rapids.  I only received some sprinkles.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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