Jump to content
The Weather Forums

April 2021 Observations and Discussion


Recommended Posts

Euro isn't too bad through next weekend. Unfortunately it's showing a region wide hard freeze around the 20th-21st. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 375
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Don’t see this every day.. Occurred Friday in Lockett ,Texas Picture compliments of Capital Weather Gang

I know this is quite distant geographically - but I came across this pic of the St.Vincent eruption in the Carib-- a really cool pic.

Good morning from Pinetop, AZ where the elevation is about 7,200 ft.  It’s a cool, crisp 48F this morning.  Yesterday, was a very breezy day up in the mountains while in the valley it warmed into the

Posted Images

69 degrees and even better, BARELY ANY WIND today!!

It seems like every D**n day, it’s been windy.

Cold front was supposed to move through today too and bump up the winds late this afternoon, but thankfully that hasn’t happened yet.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

69 degrees and even better, BARELY ANY WIND today!!

It seems like every D**n day, it’s been windy.

Cold front was supposed to move through today too and bump up the winds late this afternoon, but thankfully that hasn’t happened yet.

I know today’s awesome. I saw something on Facebook from NWS Wichita a few days ago that it’s the windiest spring there so far in at least 10 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re something similar.

  • Like 2

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

Link to post
Share on other sites

NWS Hastings afternoon disco, wet snow possible late week:

At least small precipitation chances (PoPs) currently litter the entire late Tues night-Saturday daytime time frame, but by far the highest-confidence timeframe for perhaps widespread measurable precipitation (and thus our highest PoPs) is Thurs night-Fri night. While current forecast surface temperatures support this mainly as a cold rain, temps slightly aloft certainly suggest that at least limited pockets of slushy wet snow cannot be ruled out, especially in our Nebraska zones and especially during the colder-favored overnight/morning hours. Obviously still a few days early to even start diving into precipitation type details here, but something to keep in mind as late-week draws closer.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yesterday was a perfect day weather wise, 74 with light winds.  Looks like it will be awhile before I get another one like that.  Local office agrees lol.

It'll be a cool start around 40 today but get out there and enjoy what should be a beautiful day!

Today: Sunny, highs 68-76
Mon: Not as nice
Tue: Not as nice
Wed: Not as nice
Thu: Not as nice
Friday: Not as nice
The Foreseeable Future: Not as nice#TodayIsTheDay

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

How many of you have leaf out???  Vegetation growing???  If the 00z Euro is right, a hard freeze is coming down the pipe early next week.

1.png

2.png

 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Tom said:

How many of you have leaf out???  Vegetation growing???  If the 00z Euro is right, a hard freeze is coming down the pipe early next week.

1.png

2.png

 

 

Some trees are starting to bud out.  Grass is growing, mowed twice already.  Farmers are just getting ready to plant in the coming days.  

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

Thanks for sharing the info.  I'm wondering if the buds on trees, fruit crop, etc will be impacted.  Might be a bit early to plant but I guess the farmers know better.

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Tom said:

Thanks for sharing the info.  I'm wondering if the buds on trees, fruit crop, etc will be impacted.  Might be a bit early to plant but I guess the farmers know better.

They have been out preparing the land in the last week from what I've been seeing.  Some of farmers always want to be the first to plant.  In a typical year, they will plant from the middle of April through about the 10th of May.  As we know, typical years are hard to come by it seems.  Around here the primary crops are corn and soybeans.  With the forecasted colder weather later this week, I would bet they might hold off into next week, but who knows.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Tom said:

How many of you have leaf out???  Vegetation growing???  If the 00z Euro is right, a hard freeze is coming down the pipe early next week.

1.png

2.png

 

 

 

 

 

Haven't planted our garden yet but my fruit trees are blooming already.  Biggest impact from a hard freeze right now would be to the hay crop.  A frost will burn the tips of the fescue and would stunt the growth.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I cut the grass yesterday for the 1st time in 2021. The first grass cut date is one day I do not keep records on. But I know that while there have been other years that I started in April I think this is one of the earliest with maybe 2010 and 2012 being others. There looks to be a long period of near to below average temperatures coming up. But that said there is no snow in the forecast so unless we have a late April or May event this year the snow season should be at a end. We are already past the average date of the last 1” snow fall of March 30th  But are still in the range of the lasted last 1” snow fall in the last 30 years (April 18, 2011) and in the last two years the last snow fall of 1” or more was April 14th The latest there was 1” or more of snow fall in the last 70 years were on May 3rd 1954 1.3”and April 30 1963 3.6”.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Tom said:

How many of you have leaf out???  Vegetation growing???  If the 00z Euro is right, a hard freeze is coming down the pipe early next week.

Here the grass is growing and there are early leaves on some of the trees. Many spring flowers have bloomed and I would say we are at least 2 to 3 week ahead of schedule. So yes there is a set up for some fruit crop damage if we get a hard freeze.  

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Here the grass is growing and there are early leaves on some of the trees. Many spring flowers have bloomed and I would say we are at least 2 to 3 week ahead of schedule. So yes there is a set up for some fruit crop damage if we get a hard freeze.  

That was my worry and I remember there was a year not long ago MI and IN had a bad year for apples.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Another day, another whiff by the GFS in temps.   Up to 64 and sunny.  GFS has been 5-10 degrees lower in actually temps forecast for the last 10-14 days.  Good news is that the long range looks warmer than a day ago.  April has been so warm and looks like we will be closer to average coming up.  A nice warm spring so far!  

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

What I've noticed with any freezing temps at this point is, even if it drops down to the mid 20s etc for a few hours, the daytime temps the next day/how long the cold lasts almost seem to be just as important.

Last year in April we had 6 consecutive days below freezing at night and 8 out of 9, including several nights around 20 degrees. We also had several days where the highs didn't get out of the 40s during that time. That hurt a lot of vegetation of course.

If we just have a single freeze night here and temps warm back up into the 50s the next day, then I'm not too worried about things.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Ten days out, the Euro is still showing this.  :(

850th.conus.png

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
  • Sick 1
  • Downvote 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/12/2021 at 7:35 AM, Tom said:

Thanks for sharing the info.  I'm wondering if the buds on trees, fruit crop, etc will be impacted.  Might be a bit early to plant but I guess the farmers know better.

garden centers at the hy-vees' have been out for about 2 weeks and I noticed today (ahead of a frost/freeze) they had some plants out for sale. Likely the hardier ones, but still. I know this sounds bad- but I hope they would lose a bunch sometime to a hard freeze as the darn centers leave no parking spaces available....

  • Like 2

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I know this is quite distant geographically - but I came across this pic of the St.Vincent eruption in the Carib-- a really cool pic. https://data.ibtimes.sg/en/full/48106/st-vincent-volcano-eruption.jpg?w=736

  • Like 9

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/12/2021 at 7:35 AM, Tom said:

Thanks for sharing the info.  I'm wondering if the buds on trees, fruit crop, etc will be impacted.  Might be a bit early to plant but I guess the farmers know better.

Early things are leafing out or blooming. Hopefully it won’t get into the mid 20°s. I shared some photos last wk. on one of these threads. Things have advanced a bit more since then.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z GFS has been slowly bringing some snow further east Friday night.  Going to be another cold soaker for mby.

qpf_acc.us_c.png

snku_acc.us_c.png

All the models agree the EPO tanks off the charts during next weeks cold period...tracking a potent Springtime arctic frontal boundary???

2.png

 

Edit: 

00z Euro flashing another major snow event for Denver and the Front Range through this weekend...

1.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

26 degrees, wind chill 21 as I'm coming to school this morning.  It sure feels like winter.  Rain begins tomorrow evening and starts mixing with or changing to snow by Friday morning.  I see that many track meets scheduled for Friday are being moved up to Thursday to avoid the wet or snowy weather.  April in Nebraska.

  • Like 2
  • Snow 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

26 degrees, wind chill 21 as I'm coming to school this morning.  It sure feels like winter.  Rain begins tomorrow evening and starts mixing with or changing to snow by Friday morning.  I see that many track meets scheduled for Friday are being moved up to Thursday to avoid the wet or snowy weather.  April in Nebraska.

Back to your "regularly scheduled programming"...global models didn't see this major cold coming for April...

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Fun fact. It has snowed on this date in the last 3 years with 1" last year 4.1" in 2019 and in 2018 0.1" fell. What is odd about this is that there have only been 10 years since 1892 when measurable snow fell on this date and there have been 3 years in a row and of the 10 years 4 have been in the last 10 years. That 4.1" in 2019 is the record for the date.

Clouds have now moved in. At this time it is cloudy and 42 The average H/L for today is 58/37. 59/38 on Saturday and by next
Wednesday it is 61/40. At this time it looks to be cool for the next week or so and there don’t look to be any record highs or lows set.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Fun fact. It has snowed on this date in the last 3 years with 1" last year 4.1" in 2019 and in 2018 0.1" fell. What is odd about this is that there have only been 10 years since 1892 when measurable snow fell on this date and there have been 3 years in a row and of the 10 years 4 have been in the last 10 years. That 4.1" in 2019 is the record for the date.

Clouds have now moved in. At this time it is cloudy and 42 The average H/L for today is 58/37. 59/38 on Saturday and by next
Wednesday it is 61/40. At this time it looks to be cool for the next week or so and there don’t look to be any record highs or lows set.

Yep, back to near to slightly below normal after a really warm April so far.  Long range has some cool looks, but really warm south of any frontal boundaries.  Could be 55 in 10-14 days or 75.   One thing I don't trust is the GFS.  That model has been awful in the long range.  

Link to post
Share on other sites

Going to go with a hard spring cancel here. After one of the earlier leaf-outs here, looking like it's all getting shut back down with a freeze.

Relentless cold waves to close us off this month. Dixie severe wx seems a likely threat with the severe risks increasing here again further towards May.

One thing I'm keeping note of on these warmer than avg spells is that they're getting shorter since January.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Tom said:

All the models agree the EPO tanks off the charts during next weeks cold period...tracking a potent Springtime arctic frontal boundary???

2.png

 

Edit: 

00z Euro flashing another major snow event for Denver and the Front Range through this weekend...

1.png

How long it lasts is a mystery, but that's a heck of an EPO dump. One thing for sure, after a few to 5 years in the dumpster, the old Arctic express having its punch back down in my region again is a great joy.

This is setting the stages for an incredibly dangerous severe season here, if I'm right, and if drought forms over that snowy region in later months, they need all the snow they can get now.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Light rain is falling here with a temperature of 38. The overnight low both here and officially was 34. The length of daylight today is about the same as on August 26th The record high for today of 84 was set in back 2002 and again in 2003. In the last 20 years the high today has been 80 or better. Then starting in 2018 it has been cold on this date. In 2018 the high of 35 is the record cold maximum for any April 15th and there was a inch of snow on the ground that day, then in 2019 while the high was 48 the day started with 3" of snow on the ground and last year the high was just 36 and .9" of snow fell. And today the high is forecasted to be in the mid 40's 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Local forecast for my area is 1-3", but possibly more.  

NWS morning disco:

Snowfall amounts continue to trend up with latest model
runs...especially for our western zones where amounts of 1 to 3
inches are possible with the greater totals favored toward the
Gothenburg/Lexington areas and areas west of Highway 183. Given
the warm ground temperatures, wet snow accumulations are mainly
expected on elevated or grassy surfaces. Per coordination have
held off on winter headlines but if snow amounts trend higher, an
advisory may be warranted.
  • Snow 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

@TomNWS Hastings says below average temps for another week and a half that the models didn’t see.  You mentioned this morning. 

 

You'll be the first to get pull out of this BN pattern come next weekend (24th/25th) as the SW ridge pokes into the Plains and really warms things up again.  Not sure yet how long this will last but I bet it'll feel real nice after whats coming down the piper.

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Tom said:

You'll be the first to get pull out of this BN pattern come next weekend (24th/25th) as the SW ridge pokes into the Plains and really warms things up again.  Not sure yet how long this will last but I bet it'll feel real nice after whats coming down the piper.

 

You mentioned the SW ridge poking up later this month.  In Oct we had a huge warm up ahead of the patterns signature storm and then a 40+ degree drop ahead of the storm.  Could we see something like that again?  If so major severe weather outbreak could be on the horizon.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

You mentioned the SW ridge poking up later this month.  In Oct we had a huge warm up ahead of the patterns signature storm and then a 40+ degree drop ahead of the storm.  Could we see something like that again?  If so major severe weather outbreak could be on the horizon.

Yup, you called it actually towards the end of the month into early May.  That ridge will prob be transient based on the data I just looked at as the models are growing a stronger signal for -NAO block to open up May which could damper things around the MW/GL's region as the new month opens.  These troughs will continue to come out of the Rockies next month and will likely produce a lot of severe wx for the S Plains.  I have strong confidence that @OKwx2k4is in a prime location this year for severe wx.  It should creep farther north later in May into June as the blocking wanes and the seasonal jet weakens.  Although, I will say, this summer pattern is going to be quite unusual and we will prob see stronger troughs/frontal systems than normal.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The JMA weeklies not really looking that splendid, although, as daily avg temps are on the rise we have to take that into consideration.

Week 2...

2.png

Temp/Precip...wet eastern CONUS while the SW and Cali bake in the Heat...

Y202104.D1412_gl2.png

Y202104.D1412_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4...

3.png

Temp/Precip...SW continues to Bake...tongue of cool in the central CONUS/PAC NW.  The eastern remains wet.

Y202104.D1412_gl2.png

 

Y202104.D1412_gl0.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Tom said:

Yup, you called it actually towards the end of the month into early May.  That ridge will prob be transient based on the data I just looked at as the models are growing a stronger signal for -NAO block to open up May which could damper things around the MW/GL's region as the new month opens.  These troughs will continue to come out of the Rockies next month and will likely produce a lot of severe wx for the S Plains.  I have strong confidence that @OKwx2k4is in a prime location this year for severe wx.  It should creep farther north later in May into June as the blocking wanes and the seasonal jet weakens.  Although, I will say, this summer pattern is going to be quite unusual and we will prob see stronger troughs/frontal systems than normal.

I believe you, myself and @Clinton are all in unanimous agreement.

But yes, I have a really good feeling that I'm in severe wx jackpot zone.

  • Like 1
  • Storm 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z HRRR.  Snow forecast continues to go up and the line moves farther east.  I wonder If I get a winter weather advisory issued this afternoon?

12z HRRR 4 15.png

12z NAM also further east.  I bet ya get a WWA.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...