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Don’t see this every day.. Occurred Friday in Lockett ,Texas Picture compliments of Capital Weather Gang

I know this is quite distant geographically - but I came across this pic of the St.Vincent eruption in the Carib-- a really cool pic.

Good morning from Pinetop, AZ where the elevation is about 7,200 ft.  It’s a cool, crisp 48F this morning.  Yesterday, was a very breezy day up in the mountains while in the valley it warmed into the

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Adding to subject matter. A look over last night's 00z GFS run, I would say that is the most likely general runout for the pattern.

Results being an interior western ridge of varying size.

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Looking at the long term 12z GFS, it is one depressing run.  Shot after shot of cold air.  The jet stream is parked over the far southern United States, preventing any warm air from heading this way.  Finally around day 9-10 the jet stream starts to buckle and eventually in the day 12ish time frame we start to see a warmup for a lot of the midwest from southern MN on south.  But this is a long ways off, so definitely subject to change.  We can only hope that is the start of the break to this awful weather pattern we are stuck in.

 

sfct.conus.png

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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HRRR brings accumulations really close to Lincoln. Models don't have temps getting lower than 37-38, accumulations aren't happening there, maybe a few wet snowflakes tomm morning at best. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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The op Euro is also beginning to tease the return of spring warmth by day ten.

850th.conus.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Looking at the long term 12z GFS, it is one depressing run.  Shot after shot of cold air.  The jet stream is parked over the far southern United States, preventing any warm air from heading this way.  Finally around day 9-10 the jet stream starts to buckle and eventually in the day 12ish time frame we start to see a warmup for a lot of the midwest from southern MN on south.  But this is a long ways off, so definitely subject to change.  We can only hope that is the start of the break to this awful weather pattern we are stuck in.

 

sfct.conus.png

Good thing about the GFS in the longer range is that it's usually wrong and overdoes every cold push 9/10 times.  THen it gets 1 right and people are like  "wow the GFS nailed it".  How many weeks did it take to get the GFS longer range right once this winter? 8 straight weeks it showed extreme cold air and finally the 9th week it happened?      I'll take the Euro for the win.  

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It is a winter wonderland here.  There were 3-4" on top of my son's car, but in the grass it was probably a little over 2".  Plenty of melting even in the dark.  The streets were a slushy water combination.  If this had happened during the day, I don't think anything would have accumulated.  I would guess by late morning most will melt.  If we officially finish with 3", we will be very close to 50" of snowfall for the season.  My guess last night was we'd get 3", so I'm going to be pretty close.

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17 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The op Euro is also beginning to tease the return of spring warmth by day ten.

850th.conus.png

Well, this didn't stick.  Last night's Euro replaced the warm surge with yet another blast of cold. :(

850th.conus.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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21 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Well, this didn't stick.  Last night's Euro replaced the warm surge with yet another blast of cold. :(

850th.conus.png

Strat warming, Displaced Polar Vortex and the growing signs of a strong -NAO block...not a pretty combo to finish off the last weekend of April (except for the western Plains states).  Last nights 00z EPS says Winter ain't over just yet and some snow may be flying around the MW/GL's region.

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16 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Good thing about the GFS in the longer range is that it's usually wrong and overdoes every cold push 9/10 times.  THen it gets 1 right and people are like  "wow the GFS nailed it".  How many weeks did it take to get the GFS longer range right once this winter? 8 straight weeks it showed extreme cold air and finally the 9th week it happened?      I'll take the Euro for the win.  

I agree...GFS may not be cold enough...

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00z EPS members advertising a strong signal for an April version of a "front runner" cutting up into the lower lakes region...if this holds, it should push ORD past the 50" mark...I'm game...

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2.png

 

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With cloudy skies the overnight low here was held up to 39. Here is part of todays GRR NWS discussion.
” THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A CALM AND COOL NIGHT TO ALL
OF THE AREA. NORMALLY WITH THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
30S FOR MOST, WE WOULD BE ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY. AS HAS BEEN
MENTIONED MANY TIMES, LOCAL AGRICULTURAL EXPERTS ADVISE THAT
IMPACTS WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL TEMPS GET DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR THE
AREAS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE STARTING TO BUD OUT. THE NORMALLY COLDER
AREA OF INTERIOR CENTRAL LOWER WILL LIKELY GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER
20S, BUT THERE ARE NOT REALLY ANY FRUIT TREES UP THERE.”
Having lived in Michigan for many, many years I never knew there was a line to the NE of Grand Rapids where there were no more fruit trees.

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Every EPS member has accumulating snow Monday night/Tues morning for Lincoln....LOL what evenecmwf-ensemble-KLNK-indiv_snow-8531200.thumb.png.c6a4b5baae140a028028de70571b10f2.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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14 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Every EPS member has accumulating snow Monday night/Tues morning for Lincoln....LOL what evenecmwf-ensemble-KLNK-indiv_snow-8531200.thumb.png.c6a4b5baae140a028028de70571b10f2.png

Looks like we could be in for a slush fest.

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Euro 10:1 map

It's looking like just a bit of white on the grass for me.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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16 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Euro 10:1 map

It's looking like just a bit of white on the grass for me.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Cmon!  What the hell is going on here?  Give me spring!  I have sand volleyball starting in a couple weeks.  Unreal. 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

00z EPS members advertising a strong signal for an April version of a "front runner" cutting up into the lower lakes region...if this holds, it should push ORD past the 50" mark...I'm game...

1.png

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Trees are flowering here. Most beautiful season in Marshall. Don't want to see it ruined by appreciable snow like 4/23/05. Worst climo when that happens bro

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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It's been cool lately, but I've been outdoors in full spring time mode recently (and real life has been keeping me extra busy of late).

Yet here we are on 4/16 and I'm looking at model forecast snow maps. That's just wrong.

@Clintonradar has looked impressive at times but I've only picked up 0.15" of rain today.

 

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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11 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

It's been cool lately, but I've been outdoors in full spring time mode recently (and real life has been keeping me extra busy of late).

Yet here we are on 4/16 and I'm looking at model forecast snow maps. That's just wrong.

@Clintonradar has looked impressive at times but I've only picked up 0.15" of rain today.

 

Only a trace of rain here so far.  I'm ready for some real spring weather and get my garden planted.  Trees are beginning to leaf out so I'd rather not see much snow.  Figures that mother nature would open up on us in mid April lol

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NAM is more north than GFS. It's been so chilly lately that now we might as well get snow out of this pattern. 

sn10_acc.us_c.png

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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Monday and Tuesday are going to be cold.  The Euro has us struggling to get above 40º both days.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Today ended up being very pleasant.  The temp over-performed a bit and reached the low 60s.  The wind was fairly light and the sun was out.  Sunday should be similar.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Snow chances automatically make me more active on here even if it's April ☠️ Not that I'm a big severe person, but there hasn't been much to track the past few years anyways. Last year had a few good nighttime storms though. May 5, 2019 had that EF-2 tornado graze SW Lincoln, which was significant. Other than that, I think that's been the only TOR warning for the city of Lincoln since I moved here in 2017. You wouldn't think this is exactly "Tornado Alley"

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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Same here. Even if it's April.

Ran across this the other day. -111C = -168F.  67,000' TS tops. Simply amazing.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/super-cold-thunderstorm-sets-record-with-minus-111-celsius-cloud-temperature

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Here’s a preliminary look at the changes from the 30 year climate normals (1991-2020 minus 1981-2010). My part of se. Iowa hasn’t changed much temperature wise and maybe even dropped a hair if you look closely. It’s a little wetter though, which makes sense and I don’t mind.

98D4FAF7-CBEF-42C7-BCE6-A65803CDFB6C.jpeg

3B4115B6-9EA8-4BC8-996D-EE2487A77A2A.jpeg

39D8297D-DBE1-4439-AC7A-8891BE99EA5F.jpeg

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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 The overnight low here was 29 and with clear skies there was some frost. At this time it is clear and 30. With some snow in the forecast it would not take much snow fall to set a new record for Tuesday as the record for April 20th at Grand Rapids is just 0.4" set in 1943. At Muskegon it is 0.3" set in 1953 at Kalamazoo it is just a trace and at Lansing it is 2.0" set in 1947. For Wednesday the record at Grand Rapids is 2.0" set in 1924 at Muskegon it is 0.5" set in 1912 at Kalamazoo it is  3.0" set in 1922 and at Lansing it is 3.0 set in 1868 yes that is 1868.

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47 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Here’s a preliminary look at the changes from the 30 year climate normals (1991-2020 minus 1981-2010). My part of se. Iowa hasn’t changed much temperature wise and maybe even dropped a hair if you look closely. It’s a little wetter though, which makes sense and I don’t mind.

98D4FAF7-CBEF-42C7-BCE6-A65803CDFB6C.jpeg

3B4115B6-9EA8-4BC8-996D-EE2487A77A2A.jpeg

39D8297D-DBE1-4439-AC7A-8891BE99EA5F.jpeg

That is a fascinating map to see how much wetter things are getting up across the N Rockies/GL's/SE coast as well as the dryness that has transpired in the west/SW.  It would be nice to have seen what a map of Canada looks like.  I'd bet that it has cooled across the SW/C regions if you would take the map above and sorta see the cooler air up across the Dakotas/MT.   You now, over the past 5 years or more, the N Rockies (esp MT) has seen tremendous amounts of snow in recent Winters and I've read that the glaciers up there are beginning to Grow.  The national parks actually had to take down the signs which showed the glaciers were melting away...funny how nature turns things around in a positive light!

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I'm seeing a late month Severe Wx outbreak across the Plains states and quite possibly into the eastern corn belt region.  A powerful trough will come out of the Rockies (27th-30th) and plug into deep GOM moisture and pull up some early season heat and humidity.  This could very well be a big ticket outbreak.  Signs of an active pattern forthcoming as we roll into May.

The power of the Greenland Block and Alaskan Ridge...impressive trends and unfortunately this means the warmth next weekend across the Plains is being delayed a day or two and looking less impressive.  Quite the displaced Polar Vortex.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_fh168_trend.gif

 

 

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

That is a fascinating map to see how much wetter things are getting up across the N Rockies/GL's/SE coast as well as the dryness that has transpired in the west/SW.  It would be nice to have seen what a map of Canada looks like.  I'd bet that it has cooled across the SW/C regions if you would take the map above and sorta see the cooler air up across the Dakotas/MT.   You now, over the past 5 years or more, the N Rockies (esp MT) has seen tremendous amounts of snow in recent Winters and I've read that the glaciers up there are beginning to Grow.  The national parks actually had to take down the signs which showed the glaciers were melting away...funny how nature turns things around in a positive light!

Be careful lumping eastern montana into the northern rockies.  Eastern Montana is the same geography and climate as the western dakoatas and NE Wyoming...arid high plains.  

I am curious if the dropping of the 1988-89 drought has an effect on the averages.  Does 2012 drought equally replace it?  My Dad and uncles talk about how dry the 80s were in general for north dakota and nw minnesota, but I'm not sure if this is selective memory or not.

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The latest couple Euro runs are much warmer next week.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

Be careful lumping eastern montana into the northern rockies.  Eastern Montana is the same geography and climate as the western dakoatas and NE Wyoming...arid high plains.  

I am curious if the dropping of the 1988-89 drought has an effect on the averages.  Does 2012 drought equally replace it?  My Dad and uncles talk about how dry the 80s were in general for north dakota and nw minnesota, but I'm not sure if this is selective memory or not.

I lived in the Twin Cities in 1988. Was 15 yrs old. 2012 here in IA. I would say the 1988 drought was worse in MN compared to 2012 but that 2012 in IA was worse than 1988. I have data to back it up. (see below) Some recollections of the 1988- never seen grass as dead and brown so widespread. Water rationing (even house #'s got to water  on even days of the month, Odd, on odd #'s )- but I grew up on lake and we pumped water, even with that we struggled to keep our lawn green and garden watered. Was at my grandma' / grandpa 60th wedding anniversary party on July 31st' 1988 near Faribault,MN, MSP got to 105F, I don't think it's even been close to as warm in MSP since, and was 107-108 at some reporting sites in S.MN. --*** the 99.1F AVG MAX temp for July of 36' for DSM is simply NEVER going to be touched ***

First off Twin Cities-

image.png.22de821ac175b6707d33215683b323f7.pngimage.png.65d768c420c7875081028c0213bdb820.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Precip for MSP- until AUG of 1988 it was neck and neck with 1894 as driest ever. I actually remember Bud Kraehling on  WCCO comparing 88' at the time to 1894. RIP BUD- died at the ripe old age of 96 and did weather casts well into his 80s" image.png.e2b57e090581c13d1864cca6a09f0158.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Went down for a nap at 9am this morning and it was sunny and calm. Woke up at about noon and it was absolutely vomiting Buick sized flakes and the wind was howling.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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On 4/18/2021 at 7:39 AM, Tom said:

That is a fascinating map to see how much wetter things are getting up across the N Rockies/GL's/SE coast as well as the dryness that has transpired in the west/SW.  It would be nice to have seen what a map of Canada looks like.  I'd bet that it has cooled across the SW/C regions if you would take the map above and sorta see the cooler air up across the Dakotas/MT.   You now, over the past 5 years or more, the N Rockies (esp MT) has seen tremendous amounts of snow in recent Winters and I've read that the glaciers up there are beginning to Grow.  The national parks actually had to take down the signs which showed the glaciers were melting away...funny how nature turns things around in a positive light!

Maybe you can find some more maps through this link or at least clearer images of the maps I posted.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-1991-2020-us-climate-normals-update-april-20

A few more maps here...

 

 

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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The overnight low here at my house was 43 that looks to be the warmest low for a while. With highs in the upper 30’s forecasted for tomorrow and the low 40’s on Wednesday if that plays out we would be looking at some of the coldest maximums for both days. The record coldest maximum for April 22nd is 37 in 1914 and again in 1943 it was 38 in 2013. The record low for Wednesday morning is 22 set in 1953 all then 24 set in 2013 all other years were 25 or better. So April 20 and 21, 2021 could be one of the coldest for both dates.

 

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