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April 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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NWS cut temps today in the morning package a full 5F- from 65F to 60F and with clouds expected to last most of the day and currently 38F- 60F may be a stretch though HRRR and RAP show rapid warming around 2-3pm.  Snow showers being reported across NW IA.  Currently record cold in the Arrowhead of MN with Hibbing 15F (record was 17F in 1967) - along with a plethora of mid to upper teens elsewhere. April- after a bomb of a start warm has now gone below normal but will likely finish slightly above but certainly has not felt above for the past 2 weeks or so. image.png.b36d73738f4926c1ccf9344b35337d1e.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Good morning from Pinetop, AZ where the elevation is about 7,200 ft.  It’s a cool, crisp 48F this morning.  Yesterday, was a very breezy day up in the mountains while in the valley it warmed into the 90’s.  The temp topped out at 65F up here under prestige blue skies.  I’ve never been up in the White Mountains in eastern AZ so this was a first and I will say that I’m impressed with what I’ve seen.  The forests in this region are thicker and there are more pines than in any part of this state.  It sorta reminds me of places that I’ve been to up in the Northwoods of Wisconsin to be honest.  It feels and looks more like a mountain town as in Colorado or thereabouts.
 

You know me, I’m always on the prowl looking for snow so I decided to check out Sunrise Ski Resort.  It was 52F at the entrance.  It’s to bad it was closed but I was able to get some video of the remaining snow from the winter.  This is the 3rd ski resort I’ve been to here in AZ and prob the 2nd best considering the views and location.  Snow bowl up in Flagstaff hands down has the best conditions for winter enthusiasts.

 

I’m heading back to the valley today and driving through Globe.  I’ll try to take some more pictures from my travels.  Have a great day!

 

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38FE4AD2-77DF-473A-94C2-E0A5C6F4D295.jpeg

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Big differences in severe weather and precipitation amounts between the GFS model and the euro. The GFS is much further south giving me only about a quarter of an inch of rain where is the Euro gives me nearly 2 in of rain.  Euro has support from the Canadian I'm kind of leaning that way at the moment. 

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This April has sure has its up and downs temperature wise. So far this month has has 10 days with means above average and 14 days of below average means. The current mean at Grand Rapids of 47.5 is +0.7 but earlier in the month it was well over +5.0 and now looks to end the month within a degree of average. At this time it is cloudy here and a cool 40.

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We will have to see what the high for today ends up at but there have only been 17 years in Grand Rapids history that April 25 has not reached 50 or better at the current time the official reading in 46. It is now 45 here and sunny. Of note in 14 of the 17 years it either was rain or it snowed so not many of the below 50° years were sunny. 

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It just started to sleet a bit here.  ☹️

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The HRRR has the temp surging into the low 90s in eastern Nebraska Monday.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I thought there might be a bit more sleet in the bright band on the back edge of the precip, but it was just light rain.  I picked up about 0.02".

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The HRRR has the temp surging into the low 90s in eastern Nebraska Monday.

Classic lol. Today is only the 4th day of the month with a high in the 70s but we've had no issue being stuck in the upper 40s/50s or surging into the 80s/low 90s. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Had on-and-off bursts of snow basically all day here.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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The official overnight low at GRR looks to be 37 so far. Here at my house the low so far has been 39. There have been a few sprinkles of rain here. At this time it is cloudy and somewhat breezy and 39. So far this April there have been 10 days warmer than average and 15 days below average many days on both sides have been 10° or more from average.

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20 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

well this week has turned into a dud for any kind of big severe weather event. Looks to be fairly quiet going forward as well.

Yeah, it may be mid May before we see decent storm action.

On the plus side, we've risen 30º from sunrise to noon.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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We are up to 84º, so the warmer models were right.  We should be at least this warm again tomorrow.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

How could Kansas City's first 90 degree day be on average almost a month after Lincoln and later than Minneapolis?  Something seems a bit suspect there.  

I can believe that Lincoln averages an earlier date than KC, but not by almost a month. But behind MSP? No way lol

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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The overnight run of the GFS does not shout a warm pattern as we get into May. Showing some nights in the 30's and highs 15-20 degrees below average. Hopefully it does not repeat this last 2.5 weeks in KC. Up until Sunday this past weekend, we had two straight weeks of well below average temps and some days just down right wintry. 

 

A windy 85 degrees yesterday. The warmth was nice after a very cold middle to late April.

We did have quite a bit of freeze  damage from last week. I dropped to 24 degrees in my part of KC. A lot of plants did have a moderate amount of new growth on them, so, a lot of the new leaf was burned badly. I have 55 Hydrangea plants on my property and they got destroyed. Now, I'm hopeful they will flush those leafs and form new ones. I'll know here soon..

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Of course we will have to see just how warm it gets today in Grand Rapids.  On this date there have been 8 years with highs in the 80's and a total of 20 years with highs of 75 or more. The last time it has gotten 75 or more on this date was in 2009 (76). Of note is that year July was one of the coolest on record here at Grand Rapids. It has not gotten to 80 or better here since 1990. 

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Finally, I am on the receiving end of some much welcomed rainfall this morning.  While its only about .10 or so it certainly has moistened up the ground and provided a fresh desert smell in the air.  Birds are chirping and ecstatic to see the rain.  The Heat is churning up later this week as a few 100's are showing up for the weekend.  The "SW Sizzle" is going to be baking the deserts this weekend.

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Fun fact. While it was hard for me to believe but on this date there have been a total of 8 years where it has gotten 80 or better and a total of 20 years where it has gotten to 75 or better. Now here comes the fun fact. Of the years it has gotten to 80 or better 5 of the summers that followed were cooler then average and 3 were average ( 1990, 1962, 1986, 1915 and 1970 cooler. 1899,1938 and 1914 average) but even more surprising is that of all of the years that it has gotten to 75 or better on this date (a total of 20 years) only one summer was warmer that average (1911) and only three more were average (1984,1952 and 1901) the other were cooler than average. So I guess the warmer it gets today the better chance of a cool or average summer. What a way to make a long range guess.

 

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It was starting to getting pretty hot again like yesterday but luckily the cold front pushed through. North winds and it's about 20-25 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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23 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

The overnight run of the GFS does not shout a warm pattern as we get into May. Showing some nights in the 30's and highs 15-20 degrees below average. Hopefully it does not repeat this last 2.5 weeks in KC. Up until Sunday this past weekend, we had two straight weeks of well below average temps and some days just down right wintry. 

 

A windy 85 degrees yesterday. The warmth was nice after a very cold middle to late April.

We did have quite a bit of freeze  damage from last week. I dropped to 24 degrees in my part of KC. A lot of plants did have a moderate amount of new growth on them, so, a lot of the new leaf was burned badly. I have 55 Hydrangea plants on my property and they got destroyed. Now, I'm hopeful they will flush those leafs and form new ones. I'll know here soon..

Yeah hydrangeas are sensitive. Ours were budding out about as good as ever on account of being covered by deep snow, but the upper buds froze even though I covered them. They are nicely growing out of the bottom now though. 
I wish that convection in eastern Nebraska could maintain as it moves across Iowa, but that’s not expected. Hopefully we’ll get some heavy rain early next week.

 

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As someone pointed out, and especially for my friends in KC and I down here on the south and eastern portions of the forum, 3-4 days above avg tops in the pattern isn't really overwhelming warmth.

I love the contrasts though. One poster at 90 degrees and other at snow and 30 degrees in successive posts....

Got a feeling that after we exit this month, the contrasted extremes from one side of the forum to the next are going to grow as extensive heat and drought risks stand or grow for many. I'd hoped that folks outside of this region would gain some more, but I'm going with "not gonna happen".

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Getting some light rain here at this time. The temperature has now fallen down to 55 with that light rain. While the high here at my house yesterday was 82 the official high at Grand Rapids was 78. Either way using the rule of April 27th this summer should be either cooler or near average. 

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As @MIKEKC also mentioned in his area, extensive tree damages and leaf curling on a bunch of oak trees and fruit trees here as well. Going to be interesting to see what happens with the hardwoods nut harvests and such over the next season and after.

Will be interesting to see if the oaks go into max nut production mode in the coming seasons. Feels like it's been 10 years+ since the hardwoods have fruited off in bounty.

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