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Weather modification vs weather moderation


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Weather modification means somehow, on a local or regional basis, to dramatically change the character of weather. It's not raining- changed to-it's now raining. Weather moderation means modestly changing the existing weather for a better, more beneficial condition. Its raining too much in a flood prone area- changed to- some of the excess rain is translocated to a drier area.

Many Western states now attempt weather modification with cloud seeding using silver iodide crystals or salt and smoke particles. The effectiveness is still under study. California, for example, uses cloud seeding in an attempt to increase snow in the Sierra Mountains. By definition, moisture in the atmosphere must be available and that moisture that comes down as rain is removed from the atmosphere. It's a dramatic change because without cloud seeding maybe that moisture would provide snow in the Utah mountains. In the West, stealing someone's water is bad juju .

On the other hand, if it's raining so much that Western coastal areas are in flood, somehow moving that excess rain to the high mountains as snow is termed moderation. Most of the rain that floods the coast is lost to the sea. So moving some of that excess moisture (as rain-runoff) from the coast to the high mountains (as snow-stored) is beneficial. It's raining-Moderation applied-it's still raining. No moisture is stolen from the atmospheric river.

The weather modification case is bad as moisture that could be shared or intercepted by other mountains of the  West is "stolen" by the Sierra cloud seeding effort. The weather moderation case is beneficial in that it saves moisture that would otherwise flood to the sea and saves it as snow. My following post will discuss my moderation method and the evidence I have gathered to demonstrate that the method works.

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Before moving on to talk about my moderation method, a few words about how I chose the the term aquariusradar. Aquarius is the deity of the ancients frequently called the water bearer and the so named constellation is often depicted as a figure carrying a water urn from which water pours. Sometimes good sometimes bad, depending on the ancient civilization, I prefer to think of it as in Ancient Egypt:  In Egyptian Mythology, people who populated dry lands thought of Aquarius as a charitable deity who made rainfall when they needed it for farming. Hey, maybe a little over the top, but I had to call it something.

As the name implies, radar (microwave energy) is used to transport water (rain) from an undesirable location (flood) to desirable storage (snowpack, urban greenbelt, aquifer recharge, etc.) And just as obvious, it won't work unless it's already raining. It stands to reason if the coast is receiving gentle soaking rain, it won't be used. But if flood is occurring on coastal rivers , then it can be used to transport excess rain to higher elevations or further away from the coast to possible storage. Next- the scientific background.

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In the 1960s, Dr. Edward Lorenz, pioneer weather researcher, discovered the important math that later helped develop and  defined the physics of chaos theory; later responsible for the ideas about fractals and popularly called the butterfly effect. Most of this is really beyond my scope and grasp of mathematics. But the important point about why weather is impacted by Lorenz's discovery is how much weather is controlled by dynamics and that the biggest dynamic rain making cloud is the cumulonimbus (CN ) thunderstorm.

Dr. Lorenz discovered that in natural fast developing systems like CN clouds, that are best described by dynamic non-linear equations, tiny changes at the start of a chain of repetitive actions has large effects on the final outcome. 

Microwave energy can heat (speed up) water molecules. Water for tea and coffee can be heated to the boiling point with the home microwave. At a much greater distance, the aquariusradar can heat the water molecules at the base of the developing CN cloud only a tiny amount. Repeated over and over, that tiny amount of heating inhibits the coalescence of water molecules around seed dust particles, ice crystals, etc. and the growth of targeted CN clouds is slowed and stopped altogether in continued for a long time.

Aquariusradar slows the growth of targeted CN and inhibits rainfall. The next post will discuss how that inhibition and competition from neighboring CN clouds can be put to advantage.

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The best way to blunt the forces of drought is water storage. Here are some ways aquariusradar can be used to store water while helping a poor weather condition.

Snowpack enhancement is available all along the West coast of Washington, Oregon, and California. The intense rainfall of Infrequent atmospheric rivers (Pineapple Express) can flood the coastal areas of the western coast.  Mountain snow is often the blessing of the atmospheric rivers as it encounters high peaks.

Aquariusradar targets  CN cells as they approach and cross over the coastline and diminish the rainfall of the CN cell over the flood zone. By heating the water molecules at the base of the cloud by a tiny amount, adiabatic leverage is obtained. The condensation rate is slowed and the latent heat is preserved in the water molecule. The rapid growth of CN is dependent on available moisture and the released latent heat of condensation. CN clouds rarely occur alone. CN clouds compete for moisture and when a CN cloud has inhibited growth, surrounding CN cells will take up the extra available moisture. In this example, those storms not tempered and which continue towards the elevation of the snow line of coastal mountains will produce more snow. Rainfall is moved from flood to snowpack storage.

 

CN1.png.5379d3d680353f4bf6c379cce970f668.png

  

 

CN2.png

Edited by AquariusRadar
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The sketches used in the previous post are also used to illustrate the urban stormwater abatement case. In recent days Nashville, Tn. was pummeled again by training CN thunderstorms that flooded the city. Aquariusradar, with a narrow pencil beam antenna pattern, radiates microwave energy directly on the base of the CN cloud headed for the city center. That thunderstorm is tempered such that it produces less rainfall on the rooftops and concrete of the city center that cannot absorb any water. The flood waters of the city center rush out and aggravate the flooding on the city suburbs. Other CN cells outside the city center take up the added available moisture and grow to produce more rainfall in the greenbelt or aquifer recharge that surrounds the city. The total local rainfall is unchanged. The rainfall is moved from flood to storage.

Using cloud seeding to "make it rain" is cheating mother nature by taking someone's rainfall. Cloudseeding is weather modification.

Aquariusradar cannot make it rain more. It can only move that excess rainfall to storage. Aquariusradar is weather moderation.

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Jumping ahead of several more applications (hail suppression and tornado tempering), I think aquariusradar could be used in combating the western states drought. Several days ago, an upper level low developed off the west coast. The low is maintaining and perhaps deepening as it moves northeast. Some CN lightening is observed on the north side of the circulation. In the same time period, a large patch of moisture is streaming away from the ITCZ and is now southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Looks like maybe some of that moisture could eventually be pulled into the circulation. Is this a developing Pineapple Express as illustrated in this NOAA graphic?...or will the blocking high pressure squash this as well?

PineappleExpress.png

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Using the low level IR water vapor images as reference, that low pressure trough has survived and now has pushed down as far as just north of the Hawaiian Islands. Kinda looks like the branch tributary jet shown in the NOAA diagrams. The progress might be similar to the "3-5 days" sketch in the NOAA scenario. Trouble is there is no big plume of low level moisture near the W 170 degree region. Some small amount of low level moisture is seen in Southern California- just enough to keep lenticular clouds downwind of the Mt. Whitney, Russell, Williams area. Maybe the larger moisture plume near W 150 will be intercepted as the trough continues south. Waiting to see with fingers crossed.

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The scenario can’t make any progress as the MJO is in a negative phase for the 160-170 West longitude area so the ITCZ in this zone is very quiet. No moisture is being drawn north. That patch of low level water vapor off the Central California coast isn’t receiving any nourishment and the low circulation can’t shoulder its’ way east as the high continues to block the flow. The dry air of the high is more massive than the thin clouds and water vapor. The dry air of the blocking high desiccates the light cloud cover at the coastal edge.

If some heavy weight clouds, like CN, were in the mix of northward moisture flow from the ITCZ,  the low pressure could grow to a powerful storm that pushes the high out of the path and continue on the east- northeast track it naturally follows. In order to grow into a powerful storm, the low cyclone needs more moisture and the aquariusradar could provide that moisture by operating from ships at sea.  With the addition of GPS and modern NWS type radar pointing information, the technology is available as seen in the photo of this NASA ship used during the Apollo program of the 1960s.

By tempering CN cells from the south side of the storm line of the ITCZ in the 150-170 West area, when the MJO is in the positive phase, CN cells that are to the north take up that extra moisture. Aquariusradar slows the growth of CN cells and keeps the water aloft and ultimately prevents the cell from raining down the majority of water lifted by the natural forces and instability of the ITCZ so that the anvil tops of CN cells can leave the area of the ITCZ containing massive amounts of water aloft. The Hadley cell circulation steers these water packets into the domain of the low and provides for growth. The low can now pierce the high pressure shield and rain to the west coast.

There is a little more activity in the 170 longitude of the ITCZ this morning and the MJO may be approaching positive in that area. It is cold in Europe and the cool in Eastern US. Winter in the Northern Hemisphere is not quite over.

Apolloship.png

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The thunderstorm activity at 170 West of the ITCZ has increased so the MJO for the area is turning positive. It is at this limited time window that the aquariusradar would be most effective. The natural forces of the active ITCZ loft huge volumes of water to great heights with CN and subsequently the aquariusradar, operating from the southern side of the line of storms, slows or stops that growth just prior to the start of maximum rainfall.  The CN storms further north take up the available moisture. At the northern extremity of the ITCZ storms, aquariusradar targets these enhanced storms.  A large quantity of moisture is held aloft as the storms leave the area of the active ITCZ. Held aloft, an increased portion of the rainfall of the ITCZ is transported north by the  Hadely cell circulation.

This would require two or more ships equipped with the aquariusradar. A nighttime RGB image of lightning immersed in the CN multiplex of CN storms near 170 West.

LightninginCN_ITCZ.png

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That low pressure area far off the western Washington coast waxes and wanes and doesn't seem to make any improved development. However, the 3-7 day forecast surface map shows good development by the day 6- 21 April- with a 986mb surface center. That could be a player if it can get far enough east. No moisture is going north to nourish that low. Seems unlikely to break through the barricade high pressure.

Good moisture flow from the ITCZ 145 W area as the sub-tropical jet throws the moisture to the extreme southern portions of the US. That's helping big rain in the Gulf Coast and a healthy patch of storms in south Texas. Even without a jet to stream moisture north, if more moisture were to leave the ITCZ 170 W area, the Hadely Cell circulation could put added moisture in the domain of the low, creating a strong storm system capable of busting through the blocking high. While dry air of the high is more massive than water vapor alone, the shear weight of dense- (condensed) water particles in strong storms cells can displace the dry air of the high. Strong enough to wedge the high out of the way and move eastward.

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The daily update to the surface map has advanced the development of the low to day 3 of the 3-7 day forecast (18 april). The center pressure predicted to be 992mb. There is a little moisture leaving the ITCZ 160 W area and heading north towards Hawaii. Clouds over and downwind of tall volcanos of the big island.

 

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While we all keep praying for the inside slider that could bring some rain to the state, the reality is that California has nose dived into widespread and long term drought. Incredible as it sounds, the only remedies coming from Washington and Sacramento are those goofy ideas once thought to make a difference; put a brick in the toilet tank, replace the grass with cacti, etc. Helps a tiny bit but California needs big water-lots and lots of water.

The ongoing infrastructure arguments in Washington should include requests for water infrastructure and research. The economy of the nation is highly dependent upon the success of the California economy. Even if you live in a waterlogged state, write or call your representative and urge them to do something big for water in California and the western states- an aqueduct, another dam and reservoir, desalinization plant?

California probably has more scientists than any other state. Sadly, too many have eyes in the sky-spending billions to find out if there is water on the planet Mars. Finding more water for California would be a bettor effort.   

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The hulking high pressure of the Eastern Pacific off California never allows development of any cyclonic activity off the California coast. The lows always are suppressed. The ITCZ is not feeding moisture into the area. If aquariusradar were able to enrich the Hadley cell flow with more water, the descending air of the horse latitudes off the California coast would be lighter as water vapor H2O is less massive than the nitrogen dominated dry air. Cyclones could then push eastward. The ITCZ in the 160-170 W zone is very quiet during these drought periods. Targeting thunderstorms in this zone could increase the moisture flowing northeast with the Hadley cell circulation. 

Perhaps aquariusradar must prove its worth with more dramatic continental moderation control- tempering hail and tornado producing CN cells-before the Western drought idea can advance. Next-important applications- hail and tornado suppression.  

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On 4/17/2021 at 8:15 PM, AquariusRadar said:

While we all keep praying for the inside slider that could bring some rain to the state, the reality is that California has nose dived into widespread and long term drought. Incredible as it sounds, the only remedies coming from Washington and Sacramento are those goofy ideas once thought to make a difference; put a brick in the toilet tank, replace the grass with cacti, etc. Helps a tiny bit but California needs big water-lots and lots of water.

The ongoing infrastructure arguments in Washington should include requests for water infrastructure and research. The economy of the nation is highly dependent upon the success of the California economy. Even if you live in a waterlogged state, write or call your representative and urge them to do something big for water in California and the western states- an aqueduct, another dam and reservoir, desalinization plant?

California probably has more scientists than any other state. Sadly, too many have eyes in the sky-spending billions to find out if there is water on the planet Mars. Finding more water for California would be a bettor effort.   

Good luck building anymore dams and reservoirs with the environ-mentals and the EPA.  The water system built 80-100 years ago out west was built for half the population that lives there now.  Why politicians and environ-mentals keep burying their heads in the dust is beyond explanation.  Let's spend trillions over the next 20 years "fixing" the climate to what is virtually the same as what we have now, for the sake of feeling g good about one's self.  Keep stealing the Water from the Colorado River for an overpopulated part of the country that doesn't understand that the well will run dry , not from climate change but from abuse . 

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Well a low pressure system did finally clip through the northeast corner of the high with the help of the jet stream and get to the North California coast. Some decent rain around Eureka area and mountain snow in the Trinity Alps, Shasta and Lassen, and the Sierra as far south as Yosemite. The initial moisture source is the ITCZ but via a long and circuitous route-up and over the central Pacific were the jet stream and developing cyclone funneled it down the West coast of the continent. Not from the southern Pineapple Express route. Pretty much like a normal winter storm-in late April?

Generally, this is a case where aquariusradar could not be used-no coastal flooding. Except that area just off the coast of Eureka, Ca. could have been tempered to transport more of the rain falling in the ocean to onshore. It would be tempting to target east to west trending storms just a few miles off shore and thus allow smaller CN just north or south that also are moving west to east to deliver more rain to land. Aquariusradar would transport and spread out some of that ocean rainfall to land. But a danger of local flooding might be possible so close monitoring must be exercised-stop if any indication of flooding developed.

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OK back to more uses for the aquariusradar......

AquariusRadars can temper the huge CN storms that produce hail and tornados. Modern NWS information can accurately predict the location of hail and tornado warning areas with enough time to allow mobile AquariusRadars to be set up in advance such that the storms can be intercepted and tempered; an EF5 storm may be reduced to a less harmful EF1?

 This tempering can be achieved as most violent CN storms are surrounded by competing but smaller storms. When the big tornado storm growth is stunted by the AquariusRadars microwave beam, the surrounding smaller storms take up the  water saturated air that would otherwise fuel the giant storm. The small storms grow while the big storm is restrained; if the tempering is sustained, the storm would be reduced below the dangerous thunderstorm level. The tempering of large mature storms will result in greater micro downbursts of cold heavy air and increased straight-line winds. Straight-line thunderstorm winds are dangerous but preferred over tornados and damaging hail.

It might be possible to have mobile microwave emitters mounted on trucks to follow and radiate upon the tornado much like storm trackers film as they chase/intercept  storms as they move.

Large metro areas with concentrated populations might have permanent fixed AquariusRadars to protect the city from tornados and hail.

Note April 29- Texas/OK metro areas hit with 3" size hail storms. Auto damage broken windshields-Insurance losses in the tens of millions. Permanent acquriusradar stations in large metro areas could have alleviated the loss.

Note December 10- Mayfield, Ky hit by large tornado-many lives lost. The NWS severe storm/tornado watch boxes were posted early enough so that mobile aquariusradar could be set up to intercept the storm that generated the tornado. I repeat: It might be possible to have mobile microwave emitters mounted on trucks to follow and radiate upon the tornado much like storm trackers film as they chase/intercept  storms as they move.

 

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 A seven Billion USD$ 7,000,000,000 part of the infrastructure plan for water infrascructure has been approved by the US Senate and will likely be signed in to the law. Absolutely nothing about new water sources for the western states. Washington totally blind to the ensuing drought disaster.

Edited by AquariusRadar
added "for water infrastructure"
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I am not as scientifically advanced as I don't have access to all the tools but 1Pacific Redwood and Mike Morales (Even better) can share and explain what's going on.  TPTB are causing storm after storm to just 'vanish' and that is caused by the barium and other heavy metals preventing particulates or water droplets from being able to form. Similar to the LA Smog effect of the 1960s/70s but on a widespread scale instead of a localized area.

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On 4/29/2021 at 4:48 PM, AquariusRadar said:

 A seven Billion USD$ 7,000,000,000 part of the infrastructure plan for water infrascructure has been approved by the US Senate and will likely be signed in to the law. Absolutely nothing about new water sources for the western states. Washington totally blind to the ensuing drought disaster.

Of course. Then they can swindle our tax paying dollars for more junk and they are just patsies for the much deeper Agenda 2030. These fires we had were literal dry runs.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Thunderstorms are imbedded in the blob of moisture moving towards and about 900 miles southwest of Los Angeles. Aquariusradar on ships could target those showers and slow the rainfall. A large portion of the moisture in those showers remains aloft and might continue on to reach the California Coast. 

I operated high power DoD radars in the tropics for many years and found that the microwave energy of the radar(s) slowed and stopped the development of the targeted afternoon shower(s). If focused on the thunderstorm at the time approaching the mature stage, when the most of the rainfall starts to fall, the storm can be temporarily held or stopped from continuing development. CN cells nearby take up the moisture that would normally be taken up by the targeted storm. Moisture is held aloft to be carried along by the movement of the greater storm complex. My experience is subjective of course. Later I will post what I think is objective evidence of this phenomena. A large DoD radar in NW Florida is an example of the aquariusradar concept. 

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Tropical depression Blanca would be a good example of using the aquariusradar idea to slow the development of targeted rain showers and keep moisture aloft. Airborne or shipborne aquariusradar could operate at the periphery of the storm and pick off isolated thunderstorms well away from the storm center. Isolated and with no competing storms nearby, the rain rate is slowed and moisture held aloft.

The current surface map shows a combination of small low pressure troughs and minor highs in the US Southwest that might act to pull moisture into the area from TD Blanca in about 3 days. The storm is predicted to move due west for now and will be directly below this low/high circulation in a few days. Soon it will be seen if any moisture of the TD is going to be pulled north towards the Southwest. Link to surface map:surface map

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For now Blanca seems to be a blank.

Since the early 1970s, one of the nations largest surveillance radars has operated in Northwest Florida. The radar scans the skies starting at a low elevation angle; the powerful microwave beam reaches thousands of miles out high over the Gulf of Mexico and the south Atlantic keeping that space under constant observation. But in reaching out that great distance, the radar beam momentarily strikes any close in thunderstorm that enters the coverage area. The right extreme of the back and forth scan is more or less aligned with the southwest to northeast path of CN storms created by temperate low pressure/cool fronts. Those storms that enter the coverage area and approach the radar are tempered; these CN stop development and start collapsing- making more moisture available. The competing storms that pass nearby and beyond the extreme right of the radar coverage and aren't hit by the radar beam, take up the extra available moisture. The result is a region of higher than normal rainfall and a region of reduced rainfall; a rain shadow. Rain is moved from one area to another. 

My study uses COCORAHS and Florida Forest rainfall reports over a ten year period 2011-2020. The averaged reports are sketched in the attached map. Next post-more on the map.

 

Jan-Decrainfall2020.png

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Three important Florida Forest stations shown on the map are Argyle, Bonifay, and Wausau. All forest stations use the exact same rainfall measuring equipment and measurement standards. All are nearly the same elevation above sea level and near the same distance from the Gulf of Mexico. The Argyle 10 year average measured 81+ inches; Bonifay measured 52+ inches; and Wausau received 51+ inches. The large DoD radar is located on the forward edge of the dark rain area about half way between Argyle and CoCoRahs reporter FL-OK-3.  

CN rain cells that approach the radar from the southwest and enter the search area of the radar are tempered; the microwave energy of the radar beam is absorbed by water molecules of the cloud and slow or stop the CN from developing further. The storms that pass in the area immediately to the extreme of the radar coverage take up the additional moisture made available by the tempering action of targeted storms. CN cells are in competition for water vapor and those that are inhibited by the aquariusradar energy give up some of their moisture to nearby CN cells.

The result is water is transported from one area to another. The total local rainfall is unchanged. This area of Florida averages about 65 inches a year. In the radar rain shadow area(Bonifay-Wausau), about 15 inches of rain is transported to the heavy rain belt(Argyle). An important point is that while the radar is very large the actual time a CN cloud is targeted is very small. The radar is always scanning a wide area and the time on a specific CN cell is very small which means that smaller aquariusradars could be just as effective by operating continuously on a given CN cell.

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  • 1 month later...

The southwest monsoon has created some local flooding in Tucson. With the technology available today, aquariusradar could be used to temper those CN storms predicted to traverse the drainage of washes that can flash flood the city. The local fire department has the same kind of software as the local TV station weather that takes WSR88 data and projects the exacting future path of the storm.  After checking with the local weather bureau station to insure rainfall rates from the storm is going to create a flash flood in the wash, the fireman turns on the aquariusradar (microwave generator) and directs the antenna to point directly at the base of the oncoming storm. The microwave energy slows the development of the targeted storm. Nearby competing storms use the extra available moisture not taken up by the targeted storm and grow to distribute the rainfall in a larger area. The overall local rainfall is unchanged.

Aquariusradar can not increase rainfall. It is a weather moderation method. Unliked weather modification (cloud seeding) it does not steal potential rainfall and water from others. 

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Mankind has been praying and throwing bones since day one in order to bring down the rain. Here is another wacko weather modification rainmaking scheme that is never going to work. cloud seeding with drones

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dubai-rain-cloud-seeding/

It should be pointed out that the region of middle east discussed in this article is in the summer monsoon zone that stretches round the world; thunderstorms supposedly created by drones "electrifying" the clouds occurred during the peak of the wet monsoon. Cloud seeding cannot make rain during dry periods. Cloud seeding claims of increased rainfall always occur during wet periods and the claims are impossible to prove as increases may be purely natural events. The claims by cloud seeding (weather modification) advocates is data selection (cherry picking) driven by confirmation bias. 

More on the Dubi rainmaking effort. Dubi cloud seeding

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/controlling-weather-could-serious-global-200000441.html

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  • 3 weeks later...

In the summer months, tropical low pressure cyclones roll off the ITCZ in the area immediately west of the Central Americas and then head WNW toward Hawaii. Sometimes they build to hurricane strength-as I write Hurricane Linda has developed- but even if they don’t, the storms carry considerable moisture with them. Most times, weeks later and having traversed thousands of miles, the storm slowly dies as it is disssicated by the southern half of the dry Pacific high.

 Aquariusradar, aboard ships at sea, could turn the thunderstorm complex to the north by targeting individual CN cells located on the southern boundary of the storm cluster. Targeted storms are inhibited and the moisture they would have used in growth is taken up by competing storms to the immediate north of the targeted storms. Over the period of several weeks, the storm cluster takes a more northerly trajectory, translocated further north each hour by the continuous aquariusradar action and curving parallel to the Mexican coast and under the best conditions, entering the zone of low pressure of the desert southwest. While the storm system does battle the winds of the Pacific high, the distance and time are less than the normal westerly path. The moisture of the storm can then join the flow of monsoon moisture from the southeast, except now the rain fall is expanded further to the west. Southern California could receive more monsoon moisture.

 Less than ideal conditions would result in the storm path being further off the coast, but with a NW vector that would penetrate closer to the south side of the center of the dry high. The extreme dry of the high pressure ridge would soon destroy the single cyclone. In doing so, the high absorbs the moisture brought into its circulation domain by the now defunct low: the blocking high becomes wetter. If a series of storms each summer and fall could be herded into the grasp of the high, the combined moisture of the shepherded storms increases the moisture of the high and makes the high less effective in killing westward trending fall and winter storms. More storms can then penetrate the northern half of the ridge as there is some moisture in the air for the westward moving cyclone to maintain itself.

Aug 19- Storm Linda has been hung out to dry by the southern half of the Pacific high. All of her moisture rained out to the sea and the remainder high level moisture dissected by the hydration black hole. But another cluster of storms has moved off the Mexican coast. And Hurricane Grace moves across the Yucatan and will eventually emerge on the Pacific side of Mexico. Storm after storm with tons of water. If aquariusradar were implemented on the southern half of each, the track of the storms would be more northerly. And possibly make for more monsoon rain for SoCal.

Edited by AquariusRadar
added storm updates
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The recent flash flooding Aug. 17-18 in Flagstaff Arizona is the perfect example of how AquariusRadar could be used to make scarce monsoon rainfall more available. When CN thunderstorms approach the drainage basin of the wash that is causing the repetitive flash flood through the town, the fire department turns on the aquariusradar and points the antenna at the base of the oncoming thunderstorm(s). The targeted storm(s) is inhibited and nearby storms outside the protected drainage basin take up the added moisture made available by the inhibited storm. The drainage basin outside the protected region has the necessary water storage infrastructure (lakes, ponds etc.) to store the water. Water is moved from flood to storage. The overall rainfall from the storms is unchanged.

Between times of storms, the infrastructure of storage lakes and ponds including pumps and pipeline move the water to the city reservoir.  

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  • 2 weeks later...

The NASDQ quote for California water index (futures) is USD $923 dollars an acre foot. If aquariusradar could transport 15% of a CN thunderstorm precipitation from flood to snowpack and that thunderstorm drops 500 acre feet total, will the 75 acre feet saved to storage($69,000+) pay for the cost of operation. That cost would include labor costs to operate the radar, amortization on the equipment, etc.

Probably not because there is no way to absolutely prove the radar is transporting water from flood to storage.

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  • 1 month later...

Early fall rain in PNW for the 26-28 Sept period. If enough heavy rain and If Forks approaches near-flood runoff, this represents a perfect example of the aquariusradar opportunity and capability to store snowpack on Olympus or Mt. Rainier. Operating from ships just off the coast, CN cells crossing over the coastline are targeted by aquariusradar produce less rain on the ocean, beach, and Forks, yet more snow on the mountain peaks. Only those CN cells projected to cross over or close to the mountain peaks are targeted. Those cells stop growth and provide additional moisture for growing cells already moving up the mountain slope to the snow line. The action of aquariusradar does not change the regional rainfall but does transport a portion of that rainfall from excessive rain near the coast to the reservoir of mountain snowpack.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Some snow predicted for the Sierra Mountains. This reminds me of one of the aspects of orographic lifting and how aquariusradar might help produce more snow. The Mt. Whitney, Mt. Russell, and Mt. Williamson area seldom gets a heavy snowpack. While much higher than the mountain peaks further north, the big peaks have much smaller snowfields. Being further south the air in general is drier and might be considered the only reason for the smaller snowpack. I think another reason is the exceptional uniform slope of this part of the giant mountain fault block. This area rises so uniformly that clouds are created everywhere along the western side of the mountain chain. This uniformity tends to reduce the ability of CN clouds to develop fully and create heavy snow. A overwhelming portion of the available moisture moves over the crest and through the passes between the large peaks as strato-cumulus clouds without precipitation. 

Aquariusradar targets those smaller strato-cumulus cells predicted to move through the mountain passes. The growth of these targeted clouds is inhibited and the added available moisture is then taken up by cells that are climbing towards the highest peaks. The added moisture allows stratocumulus cells to develop into cumulonimbus (CN) thunderstorms that produce a heavy snowpack on and around the mountain peaks. 

This might be considered a case of weather modification and one of stealing water from downwind areas- like the nearby White Mountains or Colorado Plateau in general if it were not for the fact that Whitney and others are higher than any of the downwind mountain ranges and with the low moisture content of the atmosphere flow such that no other orographic lifting could utilize the moisture. Under that definition, this use would be termed weather moderation.

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A water vapor molecule is 282 picometrs diameter. The mass of a water vapor molecule is 18 gram/mole. A nitrogen molecule is 300 picometers in size and mass 28 g/mole. Air that contains high concentrations of water vapor are deflected by air masses without water vapor; the dry air being more massive per volume than wet air. The giant blocking high off the California coast is very dry air. Subtropical jet streams that guide moist air northward and eastward from the ITCZ are deflected by the blocking high; routed up and over on the north side of the high and to a lesser degree down and under on the south side of the high. If the blocking high could be made more wet, the eastward moving wet air would not be deflected as far away (north or south) from California. I have previously discussed how aquariusradar could be used to “wet” up the hulking high. That idea might be to difficult for politicians to understand as politicians don’t bother with understanding how science can help. But some are aware of geoengineering-a buzzword easy on the tongue- and how it might be used to resolve the drought problem. Unfortunately, politicians make these decisions-not scientists.

 

A recent natural phenomena of the western Atlantic and Caribbean Sea points to a possible solution. An explosion of Sargassum  seaweed has resulted as large volumes of Saharan dust are deposited over the waters of this area. The dust, rich is minerals, has encouraged the growth of the seaweed ( beneficial surface Sargassum fluitans and Sargassum natans) not to be confused with the bottom dwelling nuisance Sargassum horneri of the near coastal waters of the Pacific. 

 By “farming" huge areas of floating rafts of Sargassum in the Pacific under the dome of the hulking Pacific high, the natural inversion created by the cooler waters below the warmer air above in the area of the dome would be overcome by the warmer surface temperatures created by the floating mats of seaweed.The weed is dark with a low albedo allowing most of the incident sunshine to be absorbed at the immediate surface. During daytime heating, evaporated water leaves the surface warmer than the surrounding air. Then low pressure systems that approach the “farm” of Sargassum can then take up moisture because of the more buoyant air available. A hotspot of instability could be maintained by feeding necessary minerals to the seaweed for growth in a defined area - the farm- from airplanes. Patches of weed that drift away are harvested when the drift of the escaping weed would wind up on someones beach as a environmental or undesirable mess- tourist areas maybe. The harvested weed could be used as livestock feed. But most of the weed would be held in place by the gyre, just as in the Atlantic sea of Sargasso.

 Hotspots are common in the warm waters of the worlds oceans. The hot spot CN cell can  be initiated by solar heating and continued by drawing in the low level water vapor trapped under the surrounding inversion. In the area of concern, the CN cells generated stream moisture away to the northeast. The Pacific surface where moisture must rise, be transported by westerlies, and be valuable for rain in California is generally in cool waters and hot spots are infrequent. The Sargassum farms  create hotspots that route moisture to the California coast. The hotspot location can be maintained such that the moisture can be aimed to the desired coastal or mountainous  region. Rainfall would be dependent on orographic lifting or coinciding and colliding with cyclonic/frontal systems.

One obvious place for the farm would be the huge eastern Pacific garbage gyre- the collection’s of plastic garbage that sets under the dome of the anticyclonic rotation between California and Hawaii. The albedo of the plastic garbage gyre is high- the plastics reflect much of the sunlight and don’t allow much near surface water heating. This is cooler surface water. It’s situated in a location that would send hot spot moisture, created by the sargassum farm, directly into the heart of the high pressure dome. High altitude moisture would be forced eastward to the California coast. The floating trash would soon be covered by dark sargassum weed and the weed patch would be held in place, much like the trash, by the gyre.

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The upcoming period 21-27 Oct is predicted to be a significant rain event for the central and northern California coast and mountains. The aquariusradar action to help store more rainfall as snowpack is described on my web page Snowpack Enhancement

http://aquariusradar.com/snowpack.html

During atmospheric river events, the details about a potential testing method is described on this page California test

http://aquariusradar.com/californiatestproposal.html

 

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I am trying to create a very simple short term predictive scheme that would loosely follow the NWS predicts for middle and southern California. Right now it consists of guesstamitts of the area in square kilometers of extreme dryness of the southern half of the Pacific high. The daily rough estimate in square kilometers is taken from the upper IR satellite that shows yellow greater than -5 centigrade temperature. This example for the first of the year does show a trend down. But it has no meaning unless this and future data show some correlation to California weather.

WaterVaporDryness.thumb.png.0dee71c99bf3f924645e087d02843574.png

 

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The recent trough that ran down the coast didn't have a great deal of wet air to work with so SoCal received little rain. The flow of ITCZ moisture on Saturday the 16th that ran over Hawaii and pressed towards the central coast looked encouraging. But the south moving trough and associated front could not knife through the high pressure ridge; the trough simply pushed the edge of the high south and detoured the moisture flow to the Baja. Again the high pressure is the boogeyman of drought. The flow of moisture is feeding across northern Mexico into Texas and the plains states. That will help with rain when the low sweeps across that area.

The next Aleutian cyclone approaching is now large with a good moisture on the south side. Forecast to reach California and make some rain.

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I developed a primitive short term predictive tool that I call the Upper Dryness Index for the southern half of the Pacific high. This plot is the results for the first month of the water year. It's a rough estimate of the area, in square kilometers, with an indicated temperature greater than -5 degrees centigrade of the upper IR satellite view of the tropical Pacific.

Sept21UpperWaterVaporIndex.thumb.png.1240b9a936c0903f90ac419e5d859a01.png 

The index starts the year at a high ? level (dry) and trends down through the end of the first month and into October. The index is low ? (wet) at the moment and is concurrent with the approach of more powerful Aluetian cyclones into the northern half of the Pacific high and atmospheric river events. Does it mean anything? Time will tell. 

After 90 days the index of upper dryness only shows a downward trend (wetter upper atmosphere) a few days in advance of the storms/AR. But a longer range study might show a future trend. So far all that can be said is that when the index is below 400 for a few days, rain can be expected. If the index continues low (wet) after the new year, more rain could be expected. Time will tell.

90dayDryairchart.png.6a8a551c9afe48419c5a7584bf5d54b7.png

At the start of the New calendar year, the index suddenly ramped up to very high values; indicating very dry conditions. This is compliant with all the other news that ENSO/La Nina is here to stay for the remainder of the water year ending April first.

120daydryindex.thumb.png.eda4b3587cf7c8f86a4e6250911a8725.png 

This original San Luis Obispo Tribune article has more discussion.La Nina

https://www.yahoo.com/news/la-ni-suggests-dry-stretch-130000223.html

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  • 4 weeks later...

The aquariusradar can help with the coastal flooding created by ARs-moving precipitation as flooding rain at low elevations to higher elevations as stored snow.

Trouble looms ahead. Global warming creates more flooding of coastal rivers and streams as the warmer temperatures force the snow line elevation to greater heights. Less snow can be stored; the area of snowpack is reduced. The extra rain water rushes down from ever greater height. A double whammy from global warming; more drought and more flooding.

Orting, Wa. sits below Mt. Rainier along the Puyallup River which is now in serious flood. The floodwaters should have been stored on the mountain as snowpack but the warmer temperatures have elevated and decreased the snowfalls boundary. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 11/12/2021 at 4:25 PM, AquariusRadar said:

The aquariusradar can help with the coastal flooding created by ARs-moving precipitation as flooding rain at low elevations to higher elevations as stored snow.

Trouble looms ahead. Global warming creates more flooding of coastal rivers and streams as the warmer temperatures force the snow line elevation to greater heights. Less snow can be stored; the area of snowpack is reduced. The extra rain water rushes down from ever greater height. A double whammy from global warming; more drought and more flooding.

Orting, Wa. sits below Mt. Rainier along the Puyallup River which is now in serious flood. The floodwaters should have been stored on the mountain as snowpack but the warmer temperatures have elevated and decreased the snowfalls boundary. 

And how will the Aquarius Radar help stop global warming?

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On 11/21/2021 at 12:31 AM, Mr Marine Layer said:

And how will the Aquarius Radar help stop global warming?

Aquariusradar cannot directly effect global warming. Aquariusradar can help alleviate the extremes of the local weather impacts of global warming. An extreme example is the AR combined with higher temperatures that reduce the snowfall coverage; those together can result in flooding; the current British Columbia flooding is an example. The targeted CN cells that contribute to flooding in low elevation flood prone areas can be inhibited by the microwave energy. If flooding is severe, the aquariusradar continues to radiate energy onto the CN cell until the cell reaches a high elevation. At this point the aquariusradar is turned off and the precipitation falls as stick and stay snow. In doing so, water is transported from flooding to snowpack storage. Aquariusradar cannot make it rain when the weather is dry. The weather must be raining for the technique to work. Unlike cloud seeding, Aquariusradar does not claim to increase rainfall. Aquariusradar transports excess rain a short distance to storage.  The technique is a water transport method. The total amount of local rainfall is not changed but the rainfall location is moved to a storage area. Rainfall from CN cells that approach burn scar areas and might create flash flood can be suppressed by the microwave energy and the moisture made available to other CN cells nearby. Total local rainfall is unchanged.

Unlike cloud seeding, Aquariusradar does not remove moisture from the atmosphere in an unnatural way. Using cloud seeding in the Sierra for snowpack enhancement might be removing moisture that would ordinarily fall as snow in the mountains of Utah. However, cloud seeding continues as the last resort in drought as described in this original Santa Fe paper article. New Mexico cloud seeding

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mexico-may-turn-cloud-seeding-045900914.html 

 

 

Update: seems New Mexico ski resorts have backed away from cloud seeding after negative reactions from citizens as noted by this article No No Cloudseeding

https://www.yahoo.com/news/despite-drought-mexico-project-seed-234513580.html

The concern is the silver iodide dispersion might be harmful? Taking water from the atmosphere that might naturally fall as rain or snow in another state isn't mentioned. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

An early weather modification study was Project Whitetop by the University  of Chicago and paid for by US government taxpayers. The study results were surprising- the silver iodide dispersion did not increase rainfall; not only did the data for the 5 year study not show an increase in rainfall but the overall rainfall in the study area decreased by 20%.

These negative results-no increase could be normally expected- were the result of how the project radar was used. The radar was used to observe the impact of the silver iodide flares on the growth of the cumulus clouds. Thus, the clouds were constantly targeted by the microwave energy and the growth inhibited. It was early evidence of the aquariusradar effect. The study was conducted mostly on afternoon pop up showers. When aquariusradar is used in this way-on stand alone CN cells, rainfall is reduced because no nearby clouds can take up the available moisture. Here is a link to a synopsis of the 1966 study results Project Whitetop

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.163.3874.1445 

There are a number of internet sites with more detailed study on the Whitetop weather modification project.

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There continues a large area of thunderstorms WNW of the Hawaiian Islands and satellite indicates this is the moisture source for the predicted AR 1-3 for Monday. As the trough ( 992 mb) approaches, hopefully the flow of upper level moisture continues to help fuel the cyclone as it goes down the California coast.

Those active CN thunderstorms WNW of Hawaii could be targeted by aquariusradar on board ships. The microwave energy applied immediately before the most intense rainfall, inhibits the growth and holds moisture aloft. The CN cell growth is checked just before the mature stage is reached and not allowed to "rain" itself out over the ocean. The water vapor held aloft now has more time to be swept north and eastward by the jet as it loops over the blocking high. 

In this scenario, aquariusradar translocates water from the central Pacific to the California coast fueling the low pressure storm that creates rain for California.

CNopenwater.png.bb9017b806e0031f958f2f84d0f9bd91.png

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A forum member posted the  question: Can flooding and extreme drought occur at the same time? Yes- and the recent AR that created local flooding is occurring during long term drought. Aquariusradar can help smooth the peaks between the two extremes. During this last AR+cyclone event, the Santa Cruz/Big Sur coastal region received 8+ inches of rain. The coastal streams were in flood and a large percentage of the rain rushed back and was lost to the ocean. A mobile aquariusradar situated in a coastal community, Big Sur for example, could target CN cells over the ocean as they approached the coast. The targeted CN cells are inhibited by the microwave energy and the clouds rain less. The added available moisture (water vapor) passes over the coastal mountains and is taken up by competing rain cells in the Central Valley. The rain that was causing coastal flooding has been transported to the Central Valley where the water can recharge the aquifer.

I spent many years as an operator of DoD radars. I have witnessed the effect of the microwave energy to inhibit and stop the growth of CN clouds. I also did a ten year study of the rainfall pattern around a large space surveillance radar in Florida. That study shows that the translocation of rain does occur; a dry rain shadow area and an well above average rainfall area. See my post above. A similar radar at Beale AFB in California might show the same results but the hilly terrain and lack of reporting stations make the analysis more difficult.   

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weatherfan2021 quoted Mr. Marine Layer, but I think he/she is referring to me. Forgive me if I am wrong.

weatherfan2012 thinks aquariusradar is bogus BS. As is usual, anything new is immediately termed 'heretic" or "conspiricy". But I know weatherman is just trolling to get his giggles. weatherman, why would you think I am a liar tossing out preposterous ideas? Have you operated high power radars and observed the effects of microwave energy on clouds. If so, let us know. I don't think you have. I have made an attempt for 15 years to explain how this concept can be put to advantage. It has not worked because this is the age of anti-science-everything is a government conspiracy-climate change is hoax-vaccines are evil, etc. I doubt if weatherman has ever considered what might improve the outlook for drought relief or how tornadoes might be averted. Why don't you put forward some scientific arguments that nullifies my aquariusradar idea and experience rather than simply calling me a crazy liar. 

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 One of the arguments to nullify the aquariusradar idea that might be put forward is that there is no scientific basis for thinking it would work. To the contrary, the idea is supported by the "butterfly effect" of chaos theory that is generally accepted by weather scientists. The early work of Edward Lorenz has promoted weather research so that today it is a top discipline in physics. This year  Klaus Hasselmann and  Syukuro Manabe received  the Nobel prize for physics for their work on climate change models. Much of that modeling is based on the earlier work of Lorenz. While he never won the Nobel, Lorenz received numerous awards and accolades in the scientific community.

Another anti-science argument might be that microwave energy cannot heat (speed up) water molecules. That's wrong of course. A low powered microwave oven can heat water to boiling and beyond. A larger microwave source-like a radar- can heat water in a cloud by a tiny amount at a much greater distance (20 miles?). That tiny heating effect is the "butterfly wing flapping", repeated many times as the radar sends out pulses of energy hundreds of times per second. That repetitive heating, while tiny, impacts the CN cloud development in a big way as the cloud development is non-linear. A tiny change at the start makes for big changes in growth (height?) of the dynamic CN cell. It doesn't work on less active strataform type clouds as those are slow to develop and are not dynamic but rather static in nature. The heating induced by the microwave energy inhibits the growth of the flooding CN thunderstorm and makes additional water vapor available for nearby storms and mountain lifting to translocate the rain to storage. 

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  • 2 months later...

As is frequently the case, when it occurs, the full on ENSO/La Nina is creating flooding for the eastern coastal regions of Australia. Aquariusradar could be used to temper coastal storms, reducing flooding rainfall, and moving some of the moisture inland and possibly over the coast mountains to the dry interior. It is still warm there and limited snow would be expected on the higher peaks, but orographic lifting would promote rainfall and the filling of reservoirs on the mountain rivers. Using aquariusradar during La Nina periods would encourage the construction of new storage reservoirs at higher elevations above the coastal plain.

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  • 1 month later...

It's Friday 1:30 pm and the start of a quiet weather weekend for SOCAL. But off the central coast just south of Eureka, bright yellow blobs among the greens of the radar reflectivity lie just offshore and move towards the east as a small cyclone approaches from the west. This heavier precipitation from the CN showers falls to the sea. If aquariusradar was at work, either ashore or on a ship just offshore, tempering those more active CN cells raining on the ocean surface, the inhibited showers would provide abundant moisture for showers moving up and over the coast mountains. Less rain on the ocean and more rain on the land. A large portion of that extra rain could be impounded by local reservoirs. SOCAL needs water and every opportunity to transport rain ashore from the ocean storms must be taken. Mother nature lifts the water to great height, aquariusradar inhibits the water coming down, and orographic storms ashore then use that extra moisture for more rain ashore. 

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