1/8 - 1/9 Great Lakes Clipper

[Tom]

For a couple days now, models have been showing a Clipper to traverse the Great Lakes but recent trends now have accumulating snowfall a bit farther south and may affect alot more of the members on this forum in this region.  Let's discuss this here...

 

Snow ratios look very good so you can use the qpf being spit out and fluff those totals up...

[Tony]

Might as well add the 12z Gem to this thread.

[East Dubzz]

Nice. Another little snowfall to add to some of the depth.

[gosaints]

Winds post snow look impressive

[james1976]

Maybe even a couple inches out my way. Nice.

[Tony]

Winds post snow look impressive

Yes they definitely do. Will make for some nice wind chills and blowing snow.

[gosaints]

Yes they definitely do. Will make for some nice wind chills and blowing snow.

Looking like we might get fringed here. But if we do get a couple inches gusts are forecasted to hit 40 around here. Would probably be looking at on advisory for blowing snow

[gosaints]

Lol look at the ggem updated 12z snow map. Would pay a small fee to make that verify

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[East Dubzz]

Pretty big difference between the two. What doo GFS/NAM show?

[gosaints]

Pretty big difference between the two. What doo GFS/NAM show?

In between. Hopefully the euro is on crack. The ggem should do better with a system originating in Canada. Higher resolution. There right?

[Tony]

12z Euro...

I don't trust the Euro with clippers. Last year it had a hard time with them and this past clipper it was weak with the qpf as well.

 

Edit: It also has been last to the party with the past couple storms so not sure what's going on with that model.

[gosaints]

Gfs ensembles pretty much lock in step with the op. Think we could squeeze 1.5 inches here

[Geos]

In between. Hopefully the euro is on crack. The ggem should do better with a system originating in Canada. Higher resolution. There right?

 

Yeah a system in Canada should be handled better by the CMC model.

It is showing like 0.30" of moisture here, which I think is a bit high. 0.2" I can get behind though. 

So far a forecasted 1- <3" here. 

[Tom]

In between. Hopefully the euro is on crack. The ggem should do better with a system originating in Canada. Higher resolution. There right?

 

I don't trust the Euro with clippers. Last year it had a hard time with them and this past clipper it was weak with the qpf as well.

 

Edit: It also has been last to the party with the past couple storms so not sure what's going on with that model.

GGEM/NAM were very good last year with Clippers, Euro not so much...tonight High Rez models should get a good handle on this system.  I remember last year there were a couple similar systems like this one and it laid down a broad area of 1-3".  Either way you look at it, this system is a "gift" if you ask me.  Keep building the glacier around this region and the cold has more fire power to stick around for a while.

[Seahawkfan]

Gem 12 Gives me about 3 inches Love to see this trend south tad more. Give me those purple i love to get Two feet of snow on the ground before the 15th of the month like some of the modals said a few days ago. Currently only have 7 inches.

[Tony]

MKE going with advisory for 2"-4" for Southern WI

[Money]

Looking good for about 3-4 here

[BigDizBliz420]

i thought u hated snow!

 

looks like more snow here, getting lots this year!

[Money]

I hate the cold not the snow

[6789]

FOR TOMORROW...CONCERNS WILL BE INCREASING SWLY WINDS AND A CHANCEOF SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM A MID LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING OUT OFTHE NRN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ONTHE EXACT TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF SNOW AT THE TERMINALS...BUTTHE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT SNOW SHOULD IMPACT ALL OF THE TERMINALSBEGINNING BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS AT RFD AND THE AFTERNOON HOURSIN THE CHICAGO AREA. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY WITH THISSYSTEM.

LOT seems on board with some sort of accumulation, even has RFD in on it. Really wish LOT would have kept the WCW in place, but temps just didn't get cold enough. Anyone think they will actually see WC readings of -33 tonight? I still have a feeling that the low temps will bust and most areas will stay in the single digits below zero. 

[Tom]

18z NAM...general 1-3 for NE IL...2-4" for Wisco...better snows for Michigan...I think 1-3" for N IL is a good bet...

[GDR]

I'm firing up the leaf blower!

[Tom]

18z WRF...

[gosaints]

Ukie lots heavy on the qpf

[Tony]

Winds will be crazy with this system creating blizzard like conditions. Fun times ahead tomorrow afternoon/evening!

[East Dubzz]

Would be awesome to somehow squeeze an inch out of this, but not counting on it.

[Tony]

18z RGEM looks exciting for our area.

[Tom]

18z RGEM looks exciting for our area.

I think its way overdoing snow ratios, but the general idea of the snow shield has been consistent.  BTW, the RGEM nailed the southern shift of the heavy snow band through DSM to Ottawa, IL for the last Clipper.

[East Dubzz]

When it this sup posed to occur?

[Tom]

When it this sup posed to occur?

About mid afternoon out by you...1:00pm or so

[East Dubzz]

Interesting. The Euro has like absolutely nothing, the RGEM is kinda interesting however. I surprise little snowfall would be nice, but not getting my hopes up.

[Geos]

Maybe better to look at the moisture map for the RGEM and apply a lower snowfall ratio. That map above would suggest 30:1+ ratios!

 

[Tony]

18z RGEM looks exciting for our area.

It is overdoing it but still fun to look at. Maybe 15:1 ratios would be more in line at this point

[East Dubzz]

Wouldn't mind that tiny little .25" QPF hitting me. Lol, either the RGEM is onto something or its gonna fall on its face.

[Geos]

Para-GFS

 

[Maxim]

18z RGEM looks exciting for our area.

lol no chance...

[Trinomial]

The 1800 UTC 4km NAM is showing between .10 - .25 for parts of N IL. In this time frame, the model was spot on with the last clipper. Should be interesting to see the 00 runs.

[Yerf]

Nice to get some fresh snow. I think this over performs

[Tom]

Nice to get some fresh snow. I think this over performs

Same here...last nights light snow that swept through KC/STL area was not supposed to be all that impressive but if you got underneath those heavy bursts it accumulated pretty quickly.  This system will have a little better moisture supply and it will be falling along another arctic front.  I find these situations bring surprises here and there.