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1/11 - 1/12 Lower Lakes Snow Event


Tom

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Models have been trending a wave coming up from the south and clashing with an approaching cold front out of the north that looks to bring some "surprise" snows into N IL.  This system had eyes for C IL/N IN/S MI but now may spread some love a bit north.  Let's discuss.

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Now, these are the type of systems that I like. Coming from the south with gulf moisture. Friend of mine from Chicago just told me that a few days ago they were forecasting no snow at all and now forecasters are saying that snow accumulations could become likely. Wow, how quickly weather changes.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Local forecast calling for 50% chance of snow tomorrow night. A few hours ago it was just a chance of flurries...

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Your right on the edge and may squeeze 2" out of this.

 

00z RGEM...I think ORD manages to get 2" as well, if some of that banding can sit around for a bit then maybe 3".

OK Thanks. Take what we can get Guess Two not bad since this pretty much come out of no where nice little surprise Snow

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HRRR hinting at a mini band up this way later. Will see how that goes. Right now there's quite a bit of sun out.

 

post-7-0-42477300-1420996107_thumb.png

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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16z HRRR still showing that band hitting the northern burbs as well...12z GGEM had the band north also...I think Geo's area may get 1-2" out of this actually.

Nice hit right over MBY. I find it interesting there is such a difference between the 4KM NAM and HRRR at this range. Where this band stalls is key for who will get the most. I would still favor city and south for this one, but we will see.

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ABC 7's RPM Model came back north from last nights run...

 

That cut off is really sharp... and close! haha

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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A swath of 2-4 inches is likely for my area. I am leaning towards 3". A little disappointed, too bad the upper trough coming down from Canada will push this storm from coming north. Lets see how it will pan out.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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FXUS63 KDVN 112146

AFDDVN

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

346 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2015

 

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 338 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2015

 

UPDATE TO KEEP ON TOP OF QUICKLY EVOLVING WEATHER. A LIGHT

SNOW/SLEET MIX PERSISTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...WITH MAINLY SNOW

BETWEEN HIGHWAY 34 AND INTERSTATE 80. AN ENHANCED SNOW BAND HAS

DEVELOPED FROM JUST NORTH OF FAIRFIELD...THROUGH WASHINGTON TO

MUSCATINE. THIS BAND IS BEING MODELED REASONABLY WELL BY THE 20Z

HRRR AND THE 18Z WRF. HAVE INCREASED SNOW IN THIS AREA TO 1-2

INCHES. THIS AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING

AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE FRONTOGENESIS

CRANKS UP. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS...POTENTIALLY 2-3 INCHES...NOW

EXPECTED FROM MT. PLEASANT AND BURLINGTON...THROUGH

WAPELLO...MONMOUTH...ALEDO...AND PRINCETON. AN ADVISORY IS NOT

ANTICIPATED AS THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR

MAX FRONTOGENESIS REGION TONIGHT.

 

&&

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Little better now here It was 1,2 Now 2,3 baby steps Hopefully we can get 4 plus

Nice to see the radar starting to fill in and light up to the SW.  Some nice returns that will eventually head NE all the way back from KC area.  Once the snow starts falling, looks like a good 6+ hours of snowfall.

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