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April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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More snow than we saw all of March...

Two extremely biased, self-absorbed ships passing in the night.🥰🥰🥰

Woke up to a nice scene this morning 

Posted Images

Finished March with a respectable -1.4F departure but we were -3.5" for precip...approaching -12" for the water year on top of a -17" from last water year...I mean....fuckk

If we don't get much of anything before going into the blast furnace then I'm concerned for the metro area. We are going to be a tinderbox.

  • Weenie 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Started the month off with a chilly 35.  It appears more frosty nights lie ahead.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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7 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Finished March with a respectable -1.4F departure but we were -3.5" for precip...approaching -12" for the water year on top of a -17" from last water year...I mean....fuckk

If we don't get much of anything before going into the blast furnace then I'm concerned for the metro area. We are going to be a tinderbox.

I just can't believe how dry it's been down there.  Up here we haven't gotten close to being too dry.  There is still reasonable hope this will be a cool summer though.

I ended up with a -1.3 on the temps and -2.37 on precip.

  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Got down to 34 last night after a 69/27 spread yesterday.

We can get some pretty big diurnal spreads here.  Temperature wise this is a good microclimate.  I'm impressed you made 27 yesterday.  I only pulled off a 30, and then a high 63.  Your added elevation may give you lower dew points and potential for greater diurnal range.  I also had a SW breeze yesterday which may have moderated the max.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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 Beautiful day... sunny with a little east wind.  

Later next week is looking really nice on the 12Z GFS.    A little rain on Sunday (of course) and then Tuesday/Wednesday.    But today and tomorrow also looked wet earlier this week and that did not happen.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yet another situation next week where a very complex pattern evolution could give us anything from a torch to well below normal temps.  In recent weeks the cold outcomes have won out most of the time in these cases.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 Beautiful day... sunny with a little east wind.  

Later next week is looking really nice on the 12Z GFS.    A little rain on Sunday (of course) and then Tuesday/Wednesday.    But today and tomorrow also looked wet earlier this week and that did not happen.

Right now my money is on the colder EPS later next week.  I only say that because of recent precedent.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Yet another situation next week where a very complex pattern evolution could give us anything from a torch to well below normal temps.  In recent weeks the cold outcomes have won out most of the time in these cases.

The EPS looked quite cool later next week.

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yet another situation next week where a very complex pattern evolution could give us anything from a torch to well below normal temps.  In recent weeks the cold outcomes have won out most of the time in these cases.

Yeah... we have been in a cycle in which the colder scenarios win out in the end overall.   But we have also had periods trend warmer and drier too... like the period from today through Saturday which a week ago looked cold and wet on most runs.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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35 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Low of 41 here. Up to 46 now with some sun.

I notice NW OR was way milder last night.  Did you have heavy cloud down there?  Of course OLM pulled off yet another freeze.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I notice NW OR was way milder last night.  Did you have heavy cloud over there?  Of course OLM pulled off yet another freeze.

There was an easterly breeze here until late. The same east winds that gave the immediate Portland area the warmest temps in the region yesterday. There was some high cloud cover that moved in late as well. Although wind/mixing was probably the biggest factor. HIO (which tends to be more sheltered from easterlies) fell into the mid-30s overnight.

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Looks like Sunday night will be another rapid clear out behind the cold front.  That quick clearing is why we have seen so many cold nights.  These are true sharp cold fronts we have been getting.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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It appears this new GFS model has a tendency to dump too much energy southwestward under offshore blocks.  Obviously that ends up torching us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Not so chilly low of 40 this morning. Nice filtered sunshine this morning. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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Next few days look pretty dry on last nights euro run...gets wetter by the end though. Don’t think we will see a April 2020 repeat of no rain for 3 weeks. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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55 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... we have been in a cycle in which the colder scenarios win out in the end overall.   But we have also had periods trend warmer and drier too... like the period from today through Saturday which a week ago looked cold and wet on most runs.

Usually the scenarios that “win out” are those most aligned with the background state. Which in this case is decidedly La Niña.

Won’t happen all the time, and there’s likely to be two distinct periods of warmth this month, but on the edges, the La Niña like pattern will probably overperform guidance.

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The GEM is chilly for next week.  Looks petty dry though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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25 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Next few days look pretty dry on last nights euro run...gets wetter by the end though. Don’t think we will see a April 2020 repeat of no rain for 3 weeks. 

40 is probably still about normal for you this late.  Now it appears we have several opportunities for more frost over the next 10 days.  Few if any nights look above normal.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Looks like PDX ended up with a -1.0F anomaly on the dot for March.

Now let's see if we can keep the streak going with a cold April.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Got down to 34 last night after a 69/27 spread yesterday.

A 42 degree diurnal spread is very impressive. That's about as big a daily swing as we ever get around here.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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The moisture has really washed out with this cold front.  The models actually show a decent period with clear skies tonight.  850s look to bottom out round -3 so there is still some chilly air with it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

A 42 degree diurnal spread is very impressive. That's about as big a daily swing as we ever get around here.

That is a good one alright.  45 to 50 is probably the biggest you will ever see, and that would be years like 1951 which were ridiculous in that regard.  The EPSL away from Puget Sound can do petty good sometimes.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Up to 60 now after a low of 42... beautiful start to April. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF shows a deep trough moving in by day 8... we will see if it holds.      If you go back 6 days... the current period through Saturday looked almost exactly the same as what it is showing on day 8 on the 12Z run.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The ECMWF shows a very deep trough late next week.  The GEM and ECMWF are both 100% out of phase with the GFS.  The GFS upgrade appears to be a flop IMO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF shows a very deep trough late next week.  The GEM and ECMWF are both 100% out of phase with the GFS.  The GFS upgrade appears to be a flop IMO.

So you are assuming the ECMWF is accurate and the GFS is totally wrong... but the reality will likely be a compromise.    That is what happened with this current period when looking back at the model runs a week ago.     Its too early to say the GFS is a flop.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not saying it will happen again... but here is an example illustrating how the ECMWF did not cut off enough energy.   I have been noticing that the cut off bias seems to have switched from the ECMWF to the GFS now.    

Top image is day 8 from the 12Z ECMWF run last Friday... and the bottom image is how that same day looks on the 12Z run this morning.   It actually did not cut off enough energy to the southwest.  

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_9 (1).png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_3.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We got down to 37 last night. A bit warmer than previous nights. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like SLE ended up with a -2.4 departure for March. Coldest average March minimum at Salem since 1985... Thought SnowWiz would like that nugget. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just noticed, the average low at Silver Falls in January was the warmest all-time... Not really a surprise. Average low in March was the coldest in 23 years though, about 7F colder than the average January low (37.6 vs. 30.5).

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I would call the last few days of the ECMW insanely cold.  Highs and lows both way below normal.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So you are assuming the ECMWF is accurate and the GFS is totally wrong... but the reality will likely be a compromise.    That is what happened with this current period when looking back at the model runs a week ago.     Its too early to say the GFS is a flop.   

True.  I will be interested to see how it plays out.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Clown range EPS control run looks freakin’ awesome. 😍

 

3E3D25EF-E0F7-4220-ADA8-A4E770CE2E7A.png

No doubt the Euro models are freeking cold right now.  The op is about as cold as it gets in April.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like SLE ended up with a -2.4 departure for March. Coldest average March minimum at Salem since 1985... Thought SnowWiz would like that nugget. 

Yup.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would call the last few days of the ECMW insanely cold.  Highs and lows both way below normal.


looks like this run has some high temps in the mid 40s and lows in the mid 30s for western WA at the end. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just noticed, the average low at Silver Falls in January was the warmest all-time... Not really a surprise. Average low in March was the coldest in 23 years though, about 7F colder than the average January low (37.6 vs. 30.5).

January has to come around eventually.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Will be interesting to see how the background/low frequency state battles the coming MJO wave.

If it overperforms relative to MJO climatology, in theory, that could be interpreted as a good sign for the warm season.

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:


looks like this run has some high temps in the mid 40s and lows in the mid 30s for western WA at the end. 

Even low 30s in a lot of places.  You know we are in a cold regime when we get clear nights during the troughing.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The cold nights just keep rolling in the Euro.  Shows some upper 20s Sunday night and lots of frost Monday night as well.  Tonight and tomorrow night both go well below 40 in many places.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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7th driest March on record at PDX. 

  • Sad 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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