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April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There are similarities right now to 2012... its was ridiculously warm in the Midwest in March and April that year. Although I think it's been much more sunny with more days in the 60s in my area this year so far compared to March and April of 2012.  

It's definitely colder in Alaska this months far than that 2012 map.

March 2012 and 2021 (and 2016, which isn’t an analog) are memorable here for the numerous 80+ degree days, followed by flips to troughing in April.

Also, the West-Pacific MJO transit. The GEFS is overdoing this but it’s a legit wave.
 

7842C417-6969-43B4-A632-7FF165572C0F.gif

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29 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think 2012 is a better summer analog than 2011. Though I might be wishcasting subconsciously...2011 was by far the worst summer I’ve ever experienced. Hope to never repeat that.

I know 2011 was really cool. We only had 4 highs over 90 in K-Falls, the average is at least around a dozen highs over 90 degrees. September was pretty much the warmest month in 2011 statistically.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Beautiful day on Anderson island. 

CC873A99-AD41-4EAD-9DB4-BAFC593164C8.jpeg

293A6011-C6BB-4301-A839-32EBFC7E0A45.jpeg

86F4D8A3-85BA-41D6-A6AC-5A3EC11AACA1.jpeg

Wow... those are gorgeous pics.   We need to plan a day trip. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I know 2011 was really cool. We only had 4 highs over 90 in K-Falls, the average is at least around a dozen highs over 90 degrees. September was pretty much the warmest month in 2011 statistically.

I’m getting a decent warm western September signal from low pass analogs as well. Also a normal to above normal August.

Big flip from July, which has a sharp cool signal out there.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

2012 also had a decaying Niña with a downwelling OKW that warmed ENSO transiently under -PMM/-PDO.

Also, a somewhat similar (large scale) pattern transition from March to April. Though 2021 was displaced poleward over NPAC vs 2012.

April:

A0137809-BDAF-4D1E-8694-DB4C183139E7.png

So now the Niña is decaying. Our big earth shattering multi-year event in the early 2020s has now been been reduced to a decaying one year Niña 😂

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24 minutes ago, Jesse said:

So now the Niña is decaying. Our big earth shattering multi-year event in the early 2020s has now been been reduced to a decaying one year Niña 😂

Huh? La Niña (by its official definition in ONI) “decayed” during the warm season in both 2011 and 2008. That’s what typically happens during boreal spring/summer. Both those summers saw La Niña “end” and were declared ENSO neutral.

The atmosphere was still biased to a La Niña like state, as it will likely be this year. And, like 2008 and 2011, we will likely see La Niña re-emerge during the autumn. Heck, in 2012 we even saw brief/borderline El Niño conditions by August, before the return of -ENSO during the autumn.

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66/16 at KLMT. 

Another 50 or higher diurnal change. 

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... those are gorgeous pics.   We need to plan a day trip. 

Yeah it’s very beautiful very close to Tacoma so I go all the time.

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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Anyone know what these wide, straight-line clearings are in Oregon?   This one was after we passed Bend but before the Columbia River.    They are quite wide and also high considering there is snow in the cleared area.   I was thinking electrical lines but its so wide for that.  

20210406_171627.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Anyone know what these wide, straight-line clearings are in Oregon?   This one was after we passed Bend but before the Columbia River.    They are quite wide and also high considering there is snow in the cleared area.   I was thinking electrical lines but its so wide for that.  

20210406_171627.jpg

Roads

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Roads

Those are more than likely ROW's for (HTL) utility lines across high/mountainous terrain. 

Anytime you see patches of land cleared like this especially in the area/s shown in your pic, it's usually for a utility or part of a utility project. 

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Welcome home Tim. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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New ECMWF seasonal joins the CANSIPS, projecting a large 4CH and -PNA, which keeps PNW westside near normal w/ some marine influence.

Internountain West, Southwest, and Plains/Midwest are all roasting, though.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

New ECMWF seasonal joins the CANSIPS, projecting a large 4CH and -PNA, which keeps PNW westside near normal w/ some marine influence.

Internountain West, Southwest, and Plains/Midwest are all roasting, though.

Seems about as good as we can hope for. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Another observation... its cool to see all the volcanoes at the same time (from Mt. Jefferson northward which you can about 30-40 minutes before landing at SEA from the south on a clear day) and then you see Mt St Helens all blown apart and the scars on the land so fresh for many miles.   Its pretty amazing that happened so recently and we have video of it happening.   Geological time moves very slowly.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 minutes ago, Jesse said:

64/32 day here. Wall to wall to wall to wall to wall sun again. 🌞 

Noticed a little haze obscuring the Cascade peaks earlier.

Could barely see mount Rainer today. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

New ECMWF seasonal joins the CANSIPS, projecting a large 4CH and -PNA, which keeps PNW westside near normal w/ some marine influence.

Internountain West, Southwest, and Plains/Midwest are all roasting, though.

With a 4CH we'll have plenty of heat west of the mountains with nice cool downs and marine pushes.  You can take that to the bank.

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Record low yesterday morning in Fairbanks at -24. Forecast low of -31 Friday night is close to an all time April record low. Currently 40” snow depth there. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Record low yesterday morning in Fairbanks at -24. Forecast low of -31 Friday night is close to an all time April record low. Currently 40” snow depth there. 

Brrrrrrr. In a few months they should be warmer than San Francisco.

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Looking at the 00Z EPS loop... the main message is definitely the cold. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1617753600-1617904800-1619049600-20.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hoping we can get into a wetter pattern after the mid month warm spell. Looks like GOA ridging might finally go away and be replaced with a trough offshore, which could lend itself to some southwest flow later on as the pattern progresses.

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20 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF are you talking about?  It's running below normal for many stations and the next week looks pretty cold for the most part.  OLM has been setting record lows left and right lately and I think Eugene set one yesterday.  Dry...yes...warm...no.

Revisiting this post, my call for the first half of April to run warm and dry definitely wasn't tongue in cheek. It looks exceedingly likely based on pretty much all guidance, a couple coolish days this week aside.

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10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Hoping we can get into a wetter pattern after the month long warm spell. Looks like GOA ridging might finally go away and be replaced with a trough offshore, which could pump up a ridge directly over us later on as the pattern progresses.

There I fixed it. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

That's already in the forecast. I'm thinking about the period afterward.

October? 

On a serious note. Justin and I will be tracking this cold wave in Alaska, it is truly historic. The record they broke yesterday was from 1927. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I agree... the pattern coming up could eventually lead to a wetter pattern as opposed to endless cold, dry NW flow.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Hoping we can get into a wetter pattern after the mid month warm spell. Looks like GOA ridging might finally go away and be replaced with a trough offshore, which could lend itself to some southwest flow later on as the pattern progresses.

Transient cool downs possible (if not likely), but the flip back to substantial troughing probably doesn’t happen until mid-May.

Stars are just alighting for western warmth at the moment. I’d find some way to enjoy it while it lasts.

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46 and cloudy after a low of 41. Looks like we’re in a cool showery pattern for a couple days then back into a torch pattern for mid month. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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27 minutes ago, Phil said:

Transient cool downs possible (if not likely), but the flip back to substantial troughing probably doesn’t happen until mid-May.

Stars are just alighting for western warmth at the moment. I’d find some way to enjoy it while it lasts.

A month straight of ridging would pretty much be unheard of this time of year. Especially given the ENSO state. I know you are looking at the bigger picture and when the background state will most favor it or whatever, but that doesn’t mean a system or two couldn’t sneak in, even if it’s an overall ridgy regime.

This is especially true if the ridge is being propped up by offshore troughing. It would just take a nudge east at times to give us wetter SW flow.

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

A month straight of ridging would pretty much be unheard of this time of year. Especially given the ENSO state. I know you are looking at the bigger picture and when the background state will most favor it or whatever, but that doesn’t mean a system or two couldn’t sneak in, even if it’s an overall ridgy regime.

This is especially true if the ridge is being propped up by offshore troughing. It would just take a nudge east at times to give us wetter SW flow.

WUACD4EVA.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Glad the stars are aligning for western warmth. Lmao. Such a feat.

The stars must not change much. They have been aligned for that about 95% of the time since 2013.

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Some grumpiness on the forum today. I understand it, I think some of us had high hopes, but alas we are going to have our 10th straight dry warm spring in a row if current trends hold. Might as well get used to this new normal too. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Thanks. This stuff is so much better than my extremely biased analysis. You are truly an asset here.

Grab a Snickers.  A wetter May/June is a good bet.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some grumpiness on the forum today. I understand it, I think some of us had high hopes, but alas we are going to have our 10th straight dry warm spring in a row if current trends hold. Might as well get used to this new normal too. 

To be fair... its one grumpy person.   But I also understand a desire for a reasonably wet spring even though I am looking forward to next week.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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