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April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Grab a Snickers.  A wetter May/June is a good bet.  

I’ll try to let it go. But I found the suggestion that I am as biased as Jim to be pretty offensive.

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For everywhere wondering/speculating about where I have been, I am very flattered We have been on a road trip to Grand Teton and Yellowstone this week. Took a nice week off before starting a new

Getting married tomorrow so that’s why I’ve not been around a ton of late. Looks like we are about 68F out there and are ready for some much-needed rainfall overnight.

Well I haven't been around in a while. Been a little, erm, preoccupied. Hope everyone's enjoying the sunshine and warmth lately! I'll be in Arizona for the weekend, and hopeful I don't melt!

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some grumpiness on the forum today. I understand it, I think some of us had high hopes, but alas we are going to have our 10th straight dry warm spring in a row if current trends hold. Might as well get used to this new normal too. 

I’ve definitely been extra salty 🧂  lately about how this spring has been progressing. You’d think the strongest -ENSO in about a decade would do a little more for us than some frosty nights at times. It’s been a bit of a gut punch.

On a bright note, mountain snowpack was in very good shape moving into this month. The best in awhile. But that becomes an increasingly moot point of it doesn’t rain again until November.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I’ll try to let it go. But I found the suggestion that I am as biased as Jim to be pretty offensive.

Yours is definitely more personal and vitriolic.  Jim has a much thicker skin for preferential dissent but his technical analysis is more biased.  I think it generally evens out.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yours is definitely more personal and vitriolic.  Jim has a much thicker skin for preferential dissent but his technical analysis is more biased.  I think it generally evens out.  

Back off will ya. You are far from perfect as well.

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For people who like big diurnal ranges early next week is looking pretty impressive.  The general look of the pattern still favors cold nights at that point, but the days will undoubtedly get a lot warmer if the models are correct.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I’ve definitely been extra salty 🧂  lately about how this spring has been progressing. You’d think the strongest -ENSO in about a decade would do a little more for us than some frosty nights at times. It’s been a bit of a gut punch.

On a bright note, mountain snowpack was in very good shape moving into this month. The best in awhile. But that becomes an increasingly moot point of it doesn’t rain again until November.

Yeah the snowpack is a silver lining. And a wet May/June could still be in the cards. I'm trying to take a wait and see approach right now. If we have a damp May/June then we should be in decent shape. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah the snowpack is a silver lining. And a wet May/June could still be in the cards. I'm trying to take a wait and see approach right now. If we have a damp May/June then we should be in decent shape. 

Let us pray 🙏 Andrew 

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yours is definitely more personal and vitriolic.  Jim has a much thicker skin for preferential dissent but his technical analysis is more biased.  I think it generally evens out.  

I think some of this is coming down that Jesse hates the dryness of the pattern, and I kind of like it for now.  It has been a lot wetter up here than OR for several years now, and we are in fine shape water wise.  The fire situation last year had a lot do with what happened during the warm season and not so much the lead up.  That dry Canadian front that came down in September was the straw that broke the camel's back.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Back off will ya. You are far from perfect as well.

Not even close. But you brought it up...

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I think some of this is coming down that Jesse hates the dryness of the pattern, and I kind of like it for now.  It has been a lot wetter up here than OR for several years now, and we are in fine shape water wise.  The fire situation last year had a lot do with what happened during the warm season and not so much the lead up.  That dry Canadian front that came down in September was the straw that broke the camel's back.

Yeah. I get what you are saying. Down here we really need like a mid-late 90s redux from a precip perspective to get a handle on the fire situation. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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13 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I’ve definitely been extra salty 🧂  lately about how this spring has been progressing. You’d think the strongest -ENSO in about a decade would do a little more for us than some frosty nights at times. It’s been a bit of a gut punch.

On a bright note, mountain snowpack was in very good shape moving into this month. The best in awhile. But that becomes an increasingly moot point of it doesn’t rain again until November.

The truth of the matters is the atmosphere in general has been colder than normal the last couple of months more often than not.  I would be grouchy myself if it was dry like this with a persistently warm air mass overhead.  We have had multiple times it has cleared out with cold air still in place.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think some of this is coming down that Jesse hates the dryness of the pattern, and I kind of like it for now.  It has been a lot wetter up here than OR for several years now, and we are in fine shape water wise.  The fire situation last year had a lot do with what happened during the warm season and not so much the lead up.  That dry Canadian front that came down in September was the straw that broke the camel's back.

Drought conditions are certainly not preferable, but it has been a pretty been a pretty nice spring with a good diurnal balance and some fairly dynamic patterns. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For people who like big diurnal ranges early next week is looking pretty impressive.  The general look of the pattern still favors cold nights at that point, but the days will undoubtedly get a lot warmer if the models are correct.

I would go with April ending up warmer than normal if I had to bet right now.    Not what I expected... but it seems more likely at this point.     And March was also a little warmer than last year.   There has been lots of hype about it being so cold but that just has not been the reality in the big picture.    I understand your focus is primarily on chilly nights.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would go with April ending up warmer than normal if I had to bet right now.    Not what I expected... but it seems more likely at this point.     And March was also a little warmer than last year.   There has been so much hype about it being so cold but that just has not been the reality in the big picture.

You could be right, but there is considerable uncertainty with regard to the final third of the month.  Looking at daily minimums alone it has been pretty impressive.  The sunny days have resulted in normal or even above normal max temps with cold 850s on some days.  Sort of skews the real picture.  I'm actually ok with it.  This pattern is basically what I was hoping for.  The average for the next 5 days (today being day 1) should be pretty chilly overall.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Drought conditions are certainly not preferable, but it has been a pretty been a pretty nice spring with a good diurnal balance and some fairly dynamic patterns. 

I’ve enjoyed many aspects of it at face value. 

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The GFS really seems to get into the weeds for week two.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah the snowpack is a silver lining. And a wet May/June could still be in the cards. I'm trying to take a wait and see approach right now. If we have a damp May/June then we should be in decent shape. 

Yeah I still think we will get a wet period at some point before summer really sets in too. So far this spring has seemed pretty similar to last year just a bit warmer and drier...if we follow that script we will end up fine in late spring as long as we also don’t have a September 2020 redux. We will see though. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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Are we still talking about 80s next week? Doesn't look likely on the GFS at least. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Long range GFS looks great. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The water off the West Coast (including WA) has generally warmed up a little over the last week... the ENSO regions have also warmed a little.    The pattern next week seems like one that will continue to warm the water off the PNW coast at least.

Here is the 7-day change map:

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1 (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Are we still talking about 80s next week? Doesn't look likely on the GFS at least. 

I think its a possibility... even though the operational GFS does not show it yet.   

The new 12Z GEFS is quite warm for next week.   This certainly seems like a pattern that could bring the first 80-degree reading of the year to some places west of the Cascades.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-8531200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think its a possibility... even though the operational GFS does not show it yet.   

The new 12Z GEFS is quite warm for next week.   This certainly seems like a pattern that could bring the first 80-degree reading of the year to some places west of the Cascades.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-8531200.png

I really haven't been paying attention, but the operational was certainly nothing like this map. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Got down to 35F last night and now up to 46F with some clouds. Pleasant morning. Lots of baseball on too.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I really haven't been paying attention, but the operational was certainly nothing like this map. 

The 12Z GEFS looks very much like the ECMWF and EPS... here is the 00Z EPS for the same time frame.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-8531200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A heatwave low of 25 this morning. It's already mid 50's and feels nice outside.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
Apr '21 - 00.50"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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32 minutes ago, ttt said:

https://i.pinimg.com/236x/45/e0/fe/45e0feb9965ee0a9c902000196600adf.jpg

Baby Steps, Baby Steps!

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
Apr '21 - 00.50"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

A month straight of ridging would pretty much be unheard of this time of year. Especially given the ENSO state. I know you are looking at the bigger picture and when the background state will most favor it or whatever, but that doesn’t mean a system or two couldn’t sneak in, even if it’s an overall ridgy regime.

This is especially true if the ridge is being propped up by offshore troughing. It would just take a nudge east at times to give us wetter SW flow.

Of course, I’m sure there’ll be transient systems and troughs. Just as there were transient ridges and warm spells during the troughing.

I just don’t see any prolonged, substantial troughing until the middle of May. Could be wrong but it looks pretty warm out there overall for the next month IMO.

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There are a few years I can remember AR's still going in early April. Well that's not how 2021 is rolling. lol

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
Apr '21 - 00.50"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

I’ve definitely been extra salty 🧂  lately about how this spring has been progressing. You’d think the strongest -ENSO in about a decade would do a little more for us than some frosty nights at times. It’s been a bit of a gut punch.

On a bright note, mountain snowpack was in very good shape moving into this month. The best in awhile. But that becomes an increasingly moot point of it doesn’t rain again until November.

Precip has probably been the issue more than cool airmasses. And obviously a dry biosphere has a lower thermal capacity so insolation will warm it more easily.

It’s been dry over much of the country. We were having our driest March on record until we got a lucky with a few convective rainbands. But the soil here is still the driest I’ve seen it (at this time of year) since 2012. Not a fan.

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1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Ik Tim was talking about the sea temps yesterday. Stolen from the CF @TT-SEA

 

 

sea temp.jpg

The GOA sector will probably warm somewhat this summer, but the -PMM/-PDO signature (especially in the subtropical NPAC) likely isn’t going anywhere.

The next several weeks notwithstanding, that -PNA/offshore ridge is heavily favored as a low pass/background feature.

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some grumpiness on the forum today. I understand it, I think some of us had high hopes, but alas we are going to have our 10th straight dry warm spring in a row if current trends hold. Might as well get used to this new normal too. 

Cold and wet up here currently. 

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Yet another 80+ degree day here. 😒 That’s #4 already.

Warm/dry early spring is the worst possible outcome in -ENSO for this region. Some real bad company, analog wise.

At least we’re all in it together now!

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yet another 80+ degree day here. 😒 That’s #4 already.

Warm/dry early spring is the worst possible outcome in -ENSO for this region. Some real bad company, analog wise.

At least we’re all in it together now!

Yes Fill. The whole planet 🌎 has been steadily warming for decades now. Pretty sure most posters here live on earth ;)

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Just now, Jesse said:

Yes Fill. The whole planet 🌎 has been steadily warming for decades now. Pretty sure most posters here live on earth ;)

Weather = climate.

Right?

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yet another 80+ degree day here. 😒 That’s #4 already.

Warm/dry early spring is the worst possible outcome in -ENSO for this region. Some real bad company, analog wise. #MiseryLovesCompany

 

Is Maryland part of the northeastern or southeastern U.S?
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16 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Looking at trends over years and years? Absolutely.

What about 1 month? Like, say, from now until mid-May?

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@Jesse

It might brighten your mood to note the fact that significant Alaskan cold during winter/spring is positively correlated to midsummer -PNA. 😯

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Man the 12Z Euro just goes nuts with the warmth in the 6-10 day range. Not a typical short lived spring warm spell. Looking very sustained.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Global cooling?!?!? 😱

 

What's going on in Alaska right now is pretty significant. 

Looks like parts of Europe are also experiencing extreme cold right now, with an all-time April record low for Slovenia. According to this article some locations have seen colder temperatures than they saw at any point during the winter. 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/europe-weather/extreme-cold-slovenia-damaging-frost-europe-mk/

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The ECMWF has definitely trended toward a slower warmup.  Surface gradients are more northerly as opposed to offshore, at least in the Sunday night Monday time frame.  850s stay low for a longer time than earlier runs as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Should also be noted the places in Alaska which might drop to -50°F have almost 1 hour of additional sunlight now vs April 1st.

If the state record falls this late into the month, it will be an extraordinary feat given the increase in insolation vs old record. It would be a lock if this pattern were to have happened a week ago.

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Man the 12Z Euro just goes nuts with the warmth in the 6-10 day range. Not a typical short lived spring warm spell. Looking very sustained.

Does look like the offshore trough is nudging closer to us by hour 240. But according to Phil this is a mirage and the ridge will sit directly over us for at least another three weeks. ;)

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Does look like the offshore trough is nudging closer to us by hour 240. But according to Phil this is a mirage and the ridge will sit directly over us for at least another three weeks. ;)

This is diametrically opposed to what I just said 20 minutes ago. But you knew that. ;)

 

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