April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs

[Jesse 9372]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has definitely trended toward a slower warmup.  Surface gradients are more northerly as opposed to offshore, at least in the Sunday night Monday time frame.  850s stay low for a longer time than earlier runs as well.

I noticed the same thing. Unfortunately it hasn't backed down on the warmth at all after that.

Do you not find it strange that we may end up with a warmer than average April in a Nina year?

[Jesse 9372]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What's going on in Alaska right now is pretty significant. 

Looks like parts of Europe are also experiencing extreme cold right now, with an all-time April record low for Slovenia. According to this article some locations have seen colder temperatures than they saw at any point during the winter. 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/europe-weather/extreme-cold-slovenia-damaging-frost-europe-mk/

Apparently my great grandmother on my paternal grandfather's side had Slovenian heritage, andrew.

[snow_wizard 12257]

11 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Man the 12Z Euro just goes nuts with the warmth in the 6-10 day range. Not a typical short lived spring warm spell. Looking very sustained.

The good news is it delays the warming on this run.  850s are 4C lower Monday night than previous runs.  That trend of pushing out could continue.

[Jesse 9372]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The good news is it delays the warming on this run.  850s are 4C lower Monday night than previous runs.  That trend of pushing out could continue.

Yeah, I directly responded to the post where you were talking about that.

[snow_wizard 12257]

Looks to me like the westerlies are about to undercut the block at day 10 on the ECMWF.  The warmth may not last that long.

[Phil 12276]

8 minutes ago, ttt said:

I like this stretch of warm--dry weather

I like that forecast too.

I’m sure it’ll find a way to morph into a warm SW flow pattern here, but at least there’ll be precip.

[Timmy_Supercell 2459]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Looks to me like the westerlies are about to undercut the block at day 10 on the ECMWF.  The warmth may not last that long.

We did have a short lived warmth in mid-Spring 2012 but cooled down a bit afterward. June was definitely not a warm month at all.

[Jesse 9372]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks to me like the westerlies are about to undercut the block at day 10 on the ECMWF.  The warmth may not last that long.

Yeah but long range EPS shows traffic cone orange over everything west of the Mississppi through Halloween 2022.

[Jesse 9372]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I like that forecast too.  I’m sure it’ll find a way to morph into a warm SW flow pattern here, but at least there’ll be precip.

Please don't repost that trash. 

[snow_wizard 12257]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What's going on in Alaska right now is pretty significant. 

Looks like parts of Europe are also experiencing extreme cold right now, with an all-time April record low for Slovenia. According to this article some locations have seen colder temperatures than they saw at any point during the winter. 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/europe-weather/extreme-cold-slovenia-damaging-frost-europe-mk/

And we've had numerous record lows recently in the NW also.  Obviously an amplified / blocky regime in general.  Somebody will probably get crushed next winter given the perturbed state of the atmosphere.  Barring a Nino (which is unlikely) we will be in the running.

[snow_wizard 12257]

Looks like a decent shot some places will have 4 or 5 freezing low temps over the next week.  Pretty impressive for this time of year.  Looks very continental overall for a while.

[TacomaWaWx 4784]

28 minutes ago, Phil said:

Global cooling?!?!? 

 

Seems like we’re getting more extreme anomalous amplified patterns recently both cold and warm the last couple years. The Texas outbreak this year and the cold front last September are a couple examples. 

[TacomaWaWx 4784]

Euro looks pretty warm like something out of April 2016 or 2020. Not very nina looking. 

[TacomaWaWx 4784]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like a decent shot some places will have 4 or 5 freezing low temps over the next week.  Pretty impressive for this time of year.  Looks very continental overall for a while.

Definitely should be quite a few nice diurnal range days. Have already had lots of those so far this spring. 

[Phil 12276]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

And we've had numerous record lows recently in the NW also.  Obviously an amplified / blocky regime in general.  Somebody will probably get crushed next winter given the perturbed state of the atmosphere.  Barring a Nino (which is unlikely) we will be in the running.

You’d be in the running even with a Niño.

Next winter looks like -QBO generally, so neutral ENSO might even be preferable to La Niña (though I think a 2nd year Niña is more likely).

[Jesse 9372]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

You’d be in the running even with a Niño.

Next winter looks like -QBO generally, so neutral ENSO might even be preferable to La Niña (though I think a 2nd year Niña is more likely).

Wasn’t the QFC supposed to be PRIMED for us this winter?

[SouthHillFrosty 1505]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Wasn’t the QFC supposed to be PRIMED for us this winter?

Naw is was the KFC

[TT-SEA 4560]

The 12Z EPS does not show undercutting... it stays warm through day 15 with only a nudge eastward.  

 

[MossMan 10870]

I am ready for some warmth...Been chilly up here since January. 

[Geos 1851]

45* and light rain here. Anyone else notice the lowland snow for Friday night north of Seattle? It showed up in my forecast this morning!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021040712&fh=96

[Timmy_Supercell 2459]

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I am ready for some warmth...Been chilly up here since January. 

Greta doesn't think so.

[MossMan 10870]

9 minutes ago, Geos said:

45* and light rain here. Anyone else notice the lowland snow for Friday night north of Seattle? It showed up in my forecast this morning!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021040712&fh=96

The big G has been showing a pscz snow for a few days now in southern Snohomish Co. 

[TT-SEA 4560]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The big G has been showing a pscz snow for a few days now in southern Snohomish Co. 

The 12Z ECMWF shows a slight hint of snow up there... likely ice pellet showers.

 

[TacomaWaWx 4784]

Picked up 0.01” so far this afternoon first measurable rainfall in 10 days.

[The Blob 378]

Your man Tiger Woods was going 87 in a 45mph zone. Now you know how he crashed. 

[TacomaWaWx 4784]

2 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Your man Tiger Woods was going 87 in a 45mph zone. Now you know how he crashed. 

They’re saying he wasn’t impaired though.

[SouthHillFrosty 1505]

50 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The big G has been showing a pscz snow for a few days now in southern Snohomish Co. 

Port Angles FTW

[Phil 12276]

Now Switzerland and Slovenia have both set new national record lows for the month of April.

Will Alaska join the party?

[Phil 12276]

At this rate we’ll also break the record for most EPS maps posted on a weather forum in a calendar month.

I also predict they’ll mysteriously stop being posted sometime during the second week of May.

[TT-SEA 4560]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

At this rate we’ll also break the record for most EPS maps posted on a weather forum in a calendar month.

I also predict they’ll mysteriously stop being posted sometime during the second week of May.

Yeah... it won't be any fun to post cold EPS maps as we go into summer.  

[TT-SEA 4560]

A chilly, rainy, totally cloudy April day... which is pretty common here even in warm, dry springs.  

The next 3 days actually look nicer with more sun even though the air mass stays chilly through Sunday.

[Omegaraptor 2471]

3 hours ago, Jesse said:

I noticed the same thing. Unfortunately it hasn't backed down on the warmth at all after that.

Do you not find it strange that we may end up with a warmer than average April in a Nina year?

Not as strange as the fact that PDX had its warmest first half of winter of all time in a Nina/+QBO year...

[snow_wizard 12257]

Looks like 49 / 37 for today.  Pretty chilly.

Currently 45 with a heavy shower.

[snow_wizard 12257]

3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Euro looks pretty warm like something out of April 2016 or 2020. Not very nina looking. 

We were due for a warmer pattern to happen.  It should snap back pretty quickly though.

[snow_wizard 12257]

Month to date average of 45.2 and every low 37 or below.  Pretty solid stuff.

[TT-SEA 4560]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We were due for a warmer pattern to happen.  It should snap back pretty quickly though.

My guess is that it might transition to a wet pattern eventually with SW flow.    And it does not look to "snap back" very quickly either way.   This looks like significant change in the overall pattern.      

[snow_wizard 12257]

The 18z GFS keeps most of the above normal heights to the NW of us for much of next week.

[snow_wizard 12257]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My guess is that it might transition to a wet pattern eventually with SW flow.    And it does not look to "snap back" very quickly either way.   This looks like significant change in the overall pattern.      

We'll see.  A GOA ridge is the preferred pattern this year as we have seen recently.  We are dealing with a robust and progressive MJO wave.  The forcing from that will be transient. 

[TT-SEA 4560]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GFS keeps most of the above normal heights to the NW of us for much of next week.

Actually the 18Z run is quite a bit warmer than the 12Z run.   

[TT-SEA 4560]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see.  A GOA ridge is the preferred pattern this year as we have seen recently.  We are dealing with a robust and progressive MJO wave.  The forcing from that will be transient. 

I suspect you will find everything amazing this month... and yet we still end up with a warmer and drier than normal April.   

[Gummy 45]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

I am ready for some warmth...Been chilly up here since January. 

Same here. Yesterday was a nice appetizer, now I want more sun and warmth.

[TacomaWaWx 4784]

50/41 today 0.06” of rain so far. 

[BLI snowman 6933]

2.38" of precip at PDX since February 15.

Gloom.

[Phil 12276]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Not as strange as the fact that PDX had its warmest first half of winter of all time in a Nina/+QBO year...

It was more of a mixed QBO, but yeah.

[SilverFallsAndrew 15571]

-5 departure at SLE today.

[Phil 12276]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see.  A GOA ridge is the preferred pattern this year as we have seen recently.  We are dealing with a robust and progressive MJO wave.  The forcing from that will be transient. 

It’s all relative I suppose. And it’s not just the MJO wave but also the fact its seasonal teleconnective relationship to middle latitude wave pool is changing rapidly as evolves and propagates.

The general warm-west pattern will be locked in for a little while. It isn’t until May 10-15 that forcing/climatology begins to favor deep troughing again.

[Phil 12276]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... it won't be any fun to post cold EPS maps as we go into summer.  

What about average, color-free EPS maps? Does it have to be warmer than average for you to enjoy the outdoors?

[Jesse 9372]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Not as strange as the fact that PDX had its warmest first half of winter of all time in a Nina/+QBO year...

That's debatable if not downright wrong. A mild first half of the winter fits well with Nina climo. Mid-spring on the other hand is usually a La Nina's wheelhouse when it comes to cool anomalies.

[MossMan 10870]

Raining again and 43 degrees. Had a high of 44. 
.20” of rain on the day, .25” for the month, 20.16” ytd. 

[TT-SEA 4560]

44 minutes ago, Phil said:

What about average, color-free EPS maps? Does it have to be warmer than average for you to enjoy the outdoors?

This is an interesting topic that has never been discussed here!  

I enjoy many days that are cooler than average.   Do you know how many of my 'nice day' posts just in the last couple months have occurred on days that are statistically colder than normal?    Most of them.  

Color-free EPS maps are sort of boring... it usually means a wide spread and no conclusive direction.