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April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has definitely trended toward a slower warmup.  Surface gradients are more northerly as opposed to offshore, at least in the Sunday night Monday time frame.  850s stay low for a longer time than earlier runs as well.

I noticed the same thing. Unfortunately it hasn't backed down on the warmth at all after that.

Do you not find it strange that we may end up with a warmer than average April in a Nina year?

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For everywhere wondering/speculating about where I have been, I am very flattered We have been on a road trip to Grand Teton and Yellowstone this week. Took a nice week off before starting a new

Getting married tomorrow so that’s why I’ve not been around a ton of late. Looks like we are about 68F out there and are ready for some much-needed rainfall overnight.

Well I haven't been around in a while. Been a little, erm, preoccupied. Hope everyone's enjoying the sunshine and warmth lately! I'll be in Arizona for the weekend, and hopeful I don't melt!

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What's going on in Alaska right now is pretty significant. 

Looks like parts of Europe are also experiencing extreme cold right now, with an all-time April record low for Slovenia. According to this article some locations have seen colder temperatures than they saw at any point during the winter. 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/europe-weather/extreme-cold-slovenia-damaging-frost-europe-mk/

Apparently my great grandmother on my paternal grandfather's side had Slovenian heritage, andrew.

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11 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Man the 12Z Euro just goes nuts with the warmth in the 6-10 day range. Not a typical short lived spring warm spell. Looking very sustained.

The good news is it delays the warming on this run.  850s are 4C lower Monday night than previous runs.  That trend of pushing out could continue.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The good news is it delays the warming on this run.  850s are 4C lower Monday night than previous runs.  That trend of pushing out could continue.

Yeah, I directly responded to the post where you were talking about that.

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Looks to me like the westerlies are about to undercut the block at day 10 on the ECMWF.  The warmth may not last that long.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, ttt said:

I like this stretch of warm--dry weather

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gifhttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

I like that forecast too. :D

I’m sure it’ll find a way to morph into a warm SW flow pattern here, but at least there’ll be precip.

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Looks to me like the westerlies are about to undercut the block at day 10 on the ECMWF.  The warmth may not last that long.

We did have a short lived warmth in mid-Spring 2012 but cooled down a bit afterward. June was definitely not a warm month at all.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
Apr '21 - 00.50"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks to me like the westerlies are about to undercut the block at day 10 on the ECMWF.  The warmth may not last that long.

Yeah but long range EPS shows traffic cone orange over everything west of the Mississppi through Halloween 2022.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I like that forecast too. :D I’m sure it’ll find a way to morph into a warm SW flow pattern here, but at least there’ll be precip.

Please don't repost that trash. 🤬

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What's going on in Alaska right now is pretty significant. 

Looks like parts of Europe are also experiencing extreme cold right now, with an all-time April record low for Slovenia. According to this article some locations have seen colder temperatures than they saw at any point during the winter. 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/europe-weather/extreme-cold-slovenia-damaging-frost-europe-mk/

And we've had numerous record lows recently in the NW also.  Obviously an amplified / blocky regime in general.  Somebody will probably get crushed next winter given the perturbed state of the atmosphere.  Barring a Nino (which is unlikely) we will be in the running.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Looks like a decent shot some places will have 4 or 5 freezing low temps over the next week.  Pretty impressive for this time of year.  Looks very continental overall for a while.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Phil said:

Global cooling?!?!? 😱

 

Seems like we’re getting more extreme anomalous amplified patterns recently both cold and warm the last couple years. The Texas outbreak this year and the cold front last September are a couple examples. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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Euro looks pretty warm like something out of April 2016 or 2020. Not very nina looking. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like a decent shot some places will have 4 or 5 freezing low temps over the next week.  Pretty impressive for this time of year.  Looks very continental overall for a while.

Definitely should be quite a few nice diurnal range days. Have already had lots of those so far this spring. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

And we've had numerous record lows recently in the NW also.  Obviously an amplified / blocky regime in general.  Somebody will probably get crushed next winter given the perturbed state of the atmosphere.  Barring a Nino (which is unlikely) we will be in the running.

You’d be in the running even with a Niño.

Next winter looks like -QBO generally, so neutral ENSO might even be preferable to La Niña (though I think a 2nd year Niña is more likely).

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

You’d be in the running even with a Niño.

Next winter looks like -QBO generally, so neutral ENSO might even be preferable to La Niña (though I think a 2nd year Niña is more likely).

Wasn’t the QFC supposed to be PRIMED for us this winter?

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The 12Z EPS does not show undercutting... it stays warm through day 15 with only a nudge eastward.  

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8660800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-9092800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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45* and light rain here. Anyone else notice the lowland snow for Friday night north of Seattle? It showed up in my forecast this morning!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021040712&fh=96

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Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I am ready for some warmth...Been chilly up here since January. 

Greta doesn't think so.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
Apr '21 - 00.50"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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9 minutes ago, Geos said:

45* and light rain here. Anyone else notice the lowland snow for Friday night north of Seattle? It showed up in my forecast this morning!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021040712&fh=96

The big G has been showing a pscz snow for a few days now in southern Snohomish Co. 

F7492E31-203B-47AA-92E2-7A636D1B2FDC.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The big G has been showing a pscz snow for a few days now in southern Snohomish Co. 

F7492E31-203B-47AA-92E2-7A636D1B2FDC.jpeg

The 12Z ECMWF shows a slight hint of snow up there... likely ice pellet showers.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-8056000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Picked up 0.01” so far this afternoon first measurable rainfall in 10 days.

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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2 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Your man Tiger Woods was going 87 in a 45mph zone. Now you know how he crashed. 

They’re saying he wasn’t impaired though.

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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Now Switzerland and Slovenia have both set new national record lows for the month of April. 🥶

Will Alaska join the party?

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At this rate we’ll also break the record for most EPS maps posted on a weather forum in a calendar month.

I also predict they’ll mysteriously stop being posted sometime during the second week of May.

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

At this rate we’ll also break the record for most EPS maps posted on a weather forum in a calendar month.

I also predict they’ll mysteriously stop being posted sometime during the second week of May.

Yeah... it won't be any fun to post cold EPS maps as we go into summer.  🙁

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A chilly, rainy, totally cloudy April day... which is pretty common here even in warm, dry springs.  

The next 3 days actually look nicer with more sun even though the air mass stays chilly through Sunday.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, Jesse said:

I noticed the same thing. Unfortunately it hasn't backed down on the warmth at all after that.

Do you not find it strange that we may end up with a warmer than average April in a Nina year?

Not as strange as the fact that PDX had its warmest first half of winter of all time in a Nina/+QBO year...

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Looks like 49 / 37 for today.  Pretty chilly.

Currently 45 with a heavy shower.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Euro looks pretty warm like something out of April 2016 or 2020. Not very nina looking. 

We were due for a warmer pattern to happen.  It should snap back pretty quickly though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Month to date average of 45.2 and every low 37 or below.  Pretty solid stuff.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We were due for a warmer pattern to happen.  It should snap back pretty quickly though.

My guess is that it might transition to a wet pattern eventually with SW flow.    And it does not look to "snap back" very quickly either way.   This looks like significant change in the overall pattern.      

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 18z GFS keeps most of the above normal heights to the NW of us for much of next week.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My guess is that it might transition to a wet pattern eventually with SW flow.    And it does not look to "snap back" very quickly either way.   This looks like significant change in the overall pattern.      

We'll see.  A GOA ridge is the preferred pattern this year as we have seen recently.  We are dealing with a robust and progressive MJO wave.  The forcing from that will be transient. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GFS keeps most of the above normal heights to the NW of us for much of next week.

Actually the 18Z run is quite a bit warmer than the 12Z run.   

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see.  A GOA ridge is the preferred pattern this year as we have seen recently.  We are dealing with a robust and progressive MJO wave.  The forcing from that will be transient. 

I suspect you will find everything amazing this month... and yet we still end up with a warmer and drier than normal April.   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, MossMan said:

I am ready for some warmth...Been chilly up here since January. 

Same here. Yesterday was a nice appetizer, now I want more sun and warmth.

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Not as strange as the fact that PDX had its warmest first half of winter of all time in a Nina/+QBO year...

It was more of a mixed QBO, but yeah.

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-5 departure at SLE today.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see.  A GOA ridge is the preferred pattern this year as we have seen recently.  We are dealing with a robust and progressive MJO wave.  The forcing from that will be transient. 

It’s all relative I suppose. And it’s not just the MJO wave but also the fact its seasonal teleconnective relationship to middle latitude wave pool is changing rapidly as evolves and propagates.

The general warm-west pattern will be locked in for a little while. It isn’t until May 10-15 that forcing/climatology begins to favor deep troughing again.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... it won't be any fun to post cold EPS maps as we go into summer.  🙁

What about average, color-free EPS maps? Does it have to be warmer than average for you to enjoy the outdoors? 🤔

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Not as strange as the fact that PDX had its warmest first half of winter of all time in a Nina/+QBO year...

That's debatable if not downright wrong. A mild first half of the winter fits well with Nina climo. Mid-spring on the other hand is usually a La Nina's wheelhouse when it comes to cool anomalies.

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44 minutes ago, Phil said:

What about average, color-free EPS maps? Does it have to be warmer than average for you to enjoy the outdoors? 🤔

This is an interesting topic that has never been discussed here!  😄

I enjoy many days that are cooler than average.   Do you know how many of my 'nice day' posts just in the last couple months have occurred on days that are statistically colder than normal?    Most of them.  

Color-free EPS maps are sort of boring... it usually means a wide spread and no conclusive direction.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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