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April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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12Z GFS brings a couple rounds of rain around days 10-12 but that is not really a pattern change... a big ridge builds in again afterwards.   It just dents the ridge before retrograding even more.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Pretty impressive for mid April. Both directions of I-90 are closed.

 

090VC05200 (8).jpg

That is pretty incredible.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS brings a couple rounds of rain around days 10-12 but that is not really a pattern change... a big ridge builds in again afterwards.   It just dents the ridge before retrograding even more.

Wasn’t too long ago that you were still doubting the idea of a warm up. 😎

Anyway I hope you’re taking every available opportunity to enjoy these next several weeks. Because this is (probably) the ridgiest stretch until August out there.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wasn’t too long ago that you were still doubting the idea of a warm up. 😎

Anyway I hope you’re taking every available opportunity to enjoy these next several weeks. Because this is (probably) the ridgiest stretch until August out there.

The warm up progged for next week has actually been watered down.

I'm sure what happens days 10-12 is basically chiseled in granite though.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wasn’t too long ago that you were still doubting the idea of a warm up. 😎

Anyway I hope you’re taking every available opportunity to enjoy these next several weeks. Because this is (probably) the ridgiest stretch until August out there.

Yep... have to enjoy summer next weekend.   It will be raining and in the 50s constantly from mid-May through August.  😄

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z GFS shows highs at or above 70 here from days 5-9.   And its sunny and in the 60s on days 2-4 as well.     That is a little more meaningful than what might happen on days 10-12.    And not really watered down much.     

But it is worth noting that the 12Z GFS looks like 00Z EPS so it makes more sense than the deep troughing the 06Z run showed in the long range.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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40 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Breaks in the clouds this morning and 41 after a low of 35.  Pretty breezy this morning but nothing like yesterday evening.

 

Came across this video of the Nubble Lighthouse in York, ME, looks like the storm watching will be spectacular.

Finally getting a second interview in Tuesday, only it will be with the regional director instead of the site manager.  Sounds like things are delayed at the site I applied for, so they are evaluating if they would rather have me in the regional office.

Hope it works out for you. Such a beautiful area.  I was at the Nubble Lighthouse a couple of years ago.

IMG_20190822_095722081_BURST000_COVER_TOP.jpg

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44 and mostly sunny here...DP is in the upper 20s though. Gonna be chilly tomorrow morning hoping for a record breaking late freeze. 

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Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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29 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Pretty impressive for mid April. Both directions of I-90 are closed.

 

090VC05200 (8).jpg

N/S gradient pretty strong with this one. Meadows and Timberline are closed today because of wind... but only 1-2” has fallen in the last 24 hours.

AB7DF571-1EA5-443B-912D-CB271421A6D5.jpeg.4d6b792ccc06d2689f4abaff0701be0c.jpeg

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46 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The warm up progged for next week has actually been watered down.

I'm sure what happens days 10-12 is basically chiseled in granite though.

The lower frequency state still favors that NPAC ridge/western trough, so it makes sense deterministic guidance could underestimate that at range. But a substantial intraseasonal event like this will still have power to temporarily overwhelm it.

Watered down or not, it’s generally a warm/ridgy pattern. And it has several weeks to run, obviously with some breaks here and there.

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52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yep... have to enjoy summer next weekend.   It will be raining and in the 50s constantly from mid-May through August.  😄

No, but I have a feeling you’ll be taking multiple vacations in the mid-May - mid-July timeframe. 😉

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

 

As tragic as this, there’s some evidence that potent tropical eruptions may force (or help force) cooler and wetter summers in southern and western North America. Under the proper initial boundary conditions, at least.

Obviously we’ll have to see how much SO2 output reached the stratosphere (if any) but at least there’s a potential upside for those areas in extreme drought.

 

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10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Your current 66 degrees sounds lovely! 

It’s nice today! Mostly cloudy with patchy drizzle and a few peeks of sunshine after some good rains. Had our first thunderstorm of the season yesterday afternoon as well.

Looking forward to the more troughy and dynamic pattern in the LR. Assuming it verifies.

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20 minutes ago, Phil said:

No, but I have a feeling you’ll be taking multiple vacations in the mid-May - mid-July timeframe. 😉

Already planning on it.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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There was some slush on the deck when I got up this morning, got down to 34. Chilly day, but precip Is sparse. 

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Can already see the “beginning of the end” of this upcoming western warm-up on the EPS VP200 hovmoller, as the wave-1 MJO begins to re-align with the low pass signal.

 

FC340059-1DEB-4455-AAF5-A1FADBF36DAC.png

I was going to say the ECMWF has been advertising either  cold trough digging down from Canada or undercutting westerlies by day 10.  Not going to be warm for very long.  In fact some stations that do well with raditational cooling will maintain cold mins well into next week.  As of Monday the month to date averages will be way below normal for some stations and even solidly below normal for SEA.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

Pretty impressive for mid April. Both directions of I-90 are closed.

 

090VC05200 (8).jpg

That is truly amazing.  Looks like a December blizzard up there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I'll bet a crisp $20.00 bill we will have more unseasonably cold troughs this spring.  We have had numerous examples of that so far and this warming will be temporary.  Probably a strong snap back to cold troughing afterward.

Meanwhille....can't wait to see how cold it gets tonight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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12Z ECMWF totally abandoned the idea of back door cold... stays warm through day 10.    It shows a weak undercut happening at the very end of the run but that trough is digging way out in the Pacific so it would be going back to ridging if day 10 verified.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I also wanted to address the comments some have made about it being likely we will probably have a run of gloomy / wet weather in later spring.  Quite frankly I just don't see that.  The most likely outcome would be a return to quick hitting cold troughs after the warmer period.  I could certainly be wrong, but a long run of gloomy weather seems unlikely.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

So far the first half of April is acting like part of winter. I've been here long enough to know that cold dry winds just don't often happen in mid-Spring at my place. 

Any fronts in the near future? I really want some rain.

No doubt we have had a remarkable number of fairly dry cold fronts move through.  Just totally reminds me of the mid 1980s.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF at day 10... 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8920000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-8920000.png

The 500mb view clearly shows westerlies breaking through though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 500mb view clearly shows westerlies breaking through though.

Run the loop... its won't last if that verifies.  And it's not cold or wet anyways. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I also wanted to address the comments some have made about it being likely we will probably have a run of gloomy / wet weather in later spring.  Quite frankly I just don't see that.  The most likely outcome would be a return to quick hitting cold troughs after the warmer period.  I could certainly be wrong, but a long run of gloomy weather seems unlikely.

Hope you are right.    I am starting to think you might be... I did not expect April to play out this sunny.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Up to 50 but the clouds are increasing. Looks like there’s some stray showers in the area developing. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hope you are right.    I am starting to think you might be... I did not expect April to play out this sunny.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we went without any rain for 10-14 days. Should be atleast another 7 days. We will see if Jim’s right about us going back to our chilly NW flow pattern after this period of ridging. Could really use a week or so of some nice SW driven rainfalls sometime before summer really gets going instead of that but we will see what happens. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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Got down to 42F now up to 51F and mostly cloudy with a stray shower.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Getting some snow pellets coming down here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if we went without any rain for 10-14 days. Should be atleast another 7 days. We will see if Jim’s right about us going back to our chilly NW flow pattern after this period of ridging. Could really use a week or so of some nice SW driven rainfalls sometime before summer really gets going instead of that but we will see what happens. 

No doubt a week or so of damp weather before summer would be a good thing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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North winds have pretty well set in from SEA northward already.  Already seeing a lot of sub freezing dps.

Just took a quick look and there are some dps showing up in the 19 to 24 range from reliable stations.  Exceptional for this tome of year with no offshore flow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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12z EPS now has a mix of retrogression and undercut solutions in the LR, which weakens the signal substantially. Could be viewed as an undercut, but the extension of the subtropical anticyclone is retrograding discontinuously.

Good news is heights and 850mb temperatures do return to near average over WA/BC in the average.

 

64940CE0-6C29-4093-A699-B92193418874.png

C7D652AA-7EC1-463D-AD0B-976D774C8F44.png

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z EPS now has a mix of retrogression and undercut solutions in the LR, which weakens the signal substantially. Could be viewed as an undercut, but the extension of the subtropical anticyclone is retrograding discontinuously.

Good news is heights and 850mb temperatures do return to near average over WA/BC in the average.

 

64940CE0-6C29-4093-A699-B92193418874.png

C7D652AA-7EC1-463D-AD0B-976D774C8F44.png

Perfectly fits with what the op has been showing.  I really like the retrograde solutions.  Interesting potential for more chilly weather late month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I would take todays weather over wasted 70 degree days in April.

Today is April perfection.  Going to be some big time minus temperature departures today.  Obviously the mins will be set in the evening.  I sure wish we would get one more these before the warm up.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Run the loop... its won't last if that verifies.  And it's not cold or wet anyways. 

Verbatim the 12z ECMWF likely would’ve spawned a GOA/coastal trough, similar to the 12z EPS control run.

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