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April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS showing close to +20 departures on high temps from Friday-Sunday.

1951 is the only real analog for this.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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For everywhere wondering/speculating about where I have been, I am very flattered We have been on a road trip to Grand Teton and Yellowstone this week. Took a nice week off before starting a new

Getting married tomorrow so that’s why I’ve not been around a ton of late. Looks like we are about 68F out there and are ready for some much-needed rainfall overnight.

Well I haven't been around in a while. Been a little, erm, preoccupied. Hope everyone's enjoying the sunshine and warmth lately! I'll be in Arizona for the weekend, and hopeful I don't melt!

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HIO smashed its daily record this morning for sure. I looked through HIO’s daily records and on 4/16/1933 HIO got all the way down to 20. The next latest 20 on record was on March 5.

I’m genuinely interested in the setup that triggered such a cold low. Looking at the data for April 1933, the high that day was 62, and the high the day before was 63.

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44 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

25 here.  Coldest 4/11/21 on record.  Thanks Ash!!!

image.thumb.jpeg.0c95b53cc8977acb47191ed8c68da21c.jpeg

I'll bet the people at Costco (or wherever that was) aren't laughing now!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1951 had a lot of very cold minimums during the warm season here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

HIO smashed its daily record this morning for sure. I looked through HIO’s daily records and on 4/16/1933 HIO got all the way down to 20. The next latest 20 on record was on March 5.

I’m genuinely interested in the setup that triggered such a cold low. Looking at the data for April 1933, the high that day was 62, and the high the day before was 63.

You're talking about the 1930s...that pretty much sums it up.  And people are screaming about climate change today.  The 1930s were a true roller coaster.  The weather gets really fun when the atmosphere gets this perturbed. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1951 had a lot of very cold minimums during the warm season here. 

The million dollar question is will that happen this year.  Years like 1949 and 1951 were truly ridiculous when we got into May, June, and even July.

There's a reason I've been so intrigued lately.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The million dollar question is will that happen this year.  Years like 1949 and 1951 were truly ridiculous when we got into May, June, and even July.

There's a reason I've been so intrigued lately.

It was ridiculously dry and sunny in the summer of 1951... that is for sure.   I know it was one of the driest summers ever up here.   It rained on just 6 days out here for the entire summer.    Basically it was endless days with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the mid to upper 40s in the Snoqualmie Valley.   Those types of diurnal spread tell me it was sunny most of the time.  

I just checked PDX and they had .29 for the entire JJA period.  

No extreme heat either... just constantly sunny and pleasant.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I’ll be in New York next weekend and miss it😔. I’ll live vicariously through the photos y’all post! 

So lucky our trip was not scheduled for this week.   We would probably have canceled it.   :)

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The longer range GFS has a tendency to be way high on low temps for the South Puget Sound and EPSL in cases like this.  I'm betting the low temps it's showing for late this week are a good 10 degrees high for places like McChord.

The GFS has been pretty consistent on 850s dropping a bit below normal again by the 21st or so.  Some ensemble members even sooner.  Anything after that is totally up in the air.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

 

I don’t miss the ash storms from St Helens.  Nasty stuff and gets everywhere.  At least everyone should have a mask to keep the crud out of their lungs.  Cool video none the less 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The longer range GFS has a tendency to be way high on low temps for the South Puget Sound and EPSL in cases like this.  I'm betting the low temps it's showing for late this week are a good 10 degrees high for places like McChord.

The GFS has been pretty consistent on 850s dropping a bit below normal again by the 21st or so.  Some ensemble members even sooner.  Anything after that is totally up in the air.

I suspect low temps out here are going to be warmer due to a little more wind at night. 

And the 12Z GEFS still shows a warm signal at day 12... I think its going to be generally warm for quite awhile.   

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-9179200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I just looked up driest Aprils for the Puget Sound Lowlands for the last 125 years and was rather surprised by the results.  Almost all of them were over 60 years ago.

1956, 1951, 1939, 1906, 2004, 1933, 1918, 1905, 1909, 1936, 1935, 1913

Pretty intriguing I must say.

 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I suspect low temps out here are going to be warmer due to a little more wind at night. 

And the 12Z GEFS still shows a warm signal at day 12... I think its going to be generally warm for quite awhile.   

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-9179200.png

We'll see.  I'm just a bit suspicious of a low over the GOA surviving that long given the precedent that has been set over the past few months.  The 850 graph does show 850s below normal around the 21st and 22nd.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Turns out 1956 might be even more of a dead ringer for this month than 1951.  In Landsburg it dropped to 27 on the 17th and then had a ridiculous 83 / 38 on the 20th.  Combine that with the very dry nature of the month and ....yeah.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Apparently this was the latest freeze at PDX since 1982.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Such a satisfying task... power washing the winter grime away.    And then getting patio furniture set up.  

20210411_114005.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Such a satisfying task... power washing the winter grime away.    And then getting patio furniture set up.  

20210411_114005.jpg

Save it for your boring friends on Facebook.

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4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Save it for your boring friends on Facebook.

Sort of weather related. 

My extended family is pretty boring too.   I am sure you are surrounded by the most exciting people on the planet though.   😀

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Such a satisfying task... power washing the winter grime away.    And then getting patio furniture set up.  

20210411_114005.jpg

That is the most pathetic power washer I have ever seen.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sort of weather related. 

My extended family is pretty boring too.   I am sure you are surrounded by the most exciting people on the planet though.   😀

 

Once you get to be our age, doing stuff like washing the deck is pretty newsworthy. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The ECMWF is indicating some brisk N winds tomorrow gusting 25 to 30 in the afternoon for Seattle  Not going to be warm.  It also shows low temps well below 40 continuing for many places well into the week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

1982.  Or 39 years ago.

Latest freeze at PDX in my lifetime. Something to tell the grandkids about someday. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Once you get to be our age, doing stuff like washing the deck is pretty newsworthy. 

Taking peyote on a remote desert peak would be newsworthy.

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That is the most pathetic power washer I have ever seen.

Costco!   

Does the job though. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Taking peyote on a remote desert peak would be newsworthy.

Seems kind of cliche. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I have to look back at my personal records but I think this morning’s 28 would be the latest such reading I’ve recorded. Definitely the latest at this location.

April 2008 is the only one I could think of that could give it a run for its money.

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll bet the people at Costco (or wherever that was) aren't laughing now!

She and I are gonna have a little chat when I pick up the glasses next week.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Bellingham joined the party this time with a very impressive 28 breaking the record of 31 from 1967.  Numerous records this morning.

A degree colder at the airport than in my neighborhood. That does not happen very often.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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12Z EPS keeps it warm until the very end of the run when 850mb temps finally drop to normal with westerly flow and likely some rain.  That is a long stretch of warmth. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Such a satisfying task... power washing the winter grime away.    And then getting patio furniture set up.  

20210411_114005.jpg

Your workers don't bring their own equipment?  That's weird.

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The EPS shows a pattern reset late month.  It get really washed out, because of spread, but the Western ridge is gone.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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In the meantime it's going to be another really chilly one tonight.  I would be happier if we got one more cold trough before the warming, but it had to come sometime.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In the meantime it's going to be another really chilly one tonight.  I would be happier if we got one more cold trough before the warming, but it had to come sometime.

It could be argued that we were eventually due for some sort of warm up, but this one looks pretty exceptional.

I am glad we will be out of town much of next week.

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4 hours ago, Deweydog said:

This spring has been his jam. You’re trying desperately to fit a square peg in a round hole because it happens to have you in a foul mood due to backyarditis. Gets old. Today looks gorgeous!

You seem to worry a lot about other people worrying too much about other people’s opinions.

Also seem to have a bit of an unnatural preoccupation with mine, and will generally take the side of whoever I am disagreeing with just for the sake of playing devils advocate. Gets old. And I agree that today is gorgeous!!!

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10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It could be argued that we were eventually due for some sort of warm up, but this one looks pretty exceptional.

I am glad we will be out of town much of next week.

I am also terrified of sunny and warm weather. 

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30 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Your workers don't bring their own equipment?  That's weird.

We do all of our own yardwork... as has been discussed a billion times.  Yes.  One billion! 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Up to 51 with a slightly chilly north breeze. 

I think this would have been pretty close to an arctic outbreak had it been November-February. 

Probably followed by a long cold inversion period with a ridge building in.

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35 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It could be argued that we were eventually due for some sort of warm up, but this one looks pretty exceptional.

I am glad we will be out of town much of next week.

I think the duration will get nibbled away as we move forward.  Some places will probably have below normal mins for the vast majority of the days, so it won't be as bad as it could be.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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