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April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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For everywhere wondering/speculating about where I have been, I am very flattered We have been on a road trip to Grand Teton and Yellowstone this week. Took a nice week off before starting a new

Getting married tomorrow so that’s why I’ve not been around a ton of late. Looks like we are about 68F out there and are ready for some much-needed rainfall overnight.

Well I haven't been around in a while. Been a little, erm, preoccupied. Hope everyone's enjoying the sunshine and warmth lately! I'll be in Arizona for the weekend, and hopeful I don't melt!

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Not going to get too cold here tonight unless this north wind dies off. 45 with a DP of 30. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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The GFS operational, the ensemble, and GEM all show 850s dropping to normal or below around the 20th.  Might be just a brief break in the overall warm day pattern, but it would be enough to make the max temps fall back to normal for two or three days at least.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Not going to get too cold here tonight unless this north wind dies off. 45 with a DP of 30. 

You might calm down tonight, but tomorrow night is going to be really breezy along the Sound.  In fact Seattle could see some significant north winds tomorrow.  I will be interested to see if this area ends up wind sheltered tomorrow night or not.  The type of northerly gradient we are looking at is pretty uncommon, because it usually gets a more easterly component in the warm up phase after a cold shot.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You might calm down tonight, but tomorrow night is going to be really breezy along the Sound.  In fact Seattle could see some significant north winds tomorrow.  I will be interested to see if this area ends up wind sheltered tomorrow night or not.  The type of northerly gradient we are looking at is pretty uncommon, because it usually gets a more easterly component in the warm up phase after a cold shot.

Wouldn't vertical winds be more uncommon? :)

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31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS operational, the ensemble, and GEM all show 850s dropping to normal or below around the 20th.  Might be just a brief break in the overall warm day pattern, but it would be enough to make the max temps fall back to normal for two or three days at least.

My God. Does this mean FINALLY the 'warm' weather curse on my birthday will  be broken at last? Curse hath lifted? 🤔

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2 minutes ago, Link said:

My God. Does this mean FINALLY the 'warm' weather curse on my birthday will  be broken at last? Curse hath lifted? 🤔

How cold was it at your house this morning?

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53 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS operational, the ensemble, and GEM all show 850s dropping to normal or below around the 20th.  Might be just a brief break in the overall warm day pattern, but it would be enough to make the max temps fall back to normal for two or three days at least.

If the 00Z GFS verified verbatim April would end up much warmer and drier than average.

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Rather impressively it's just as cold here tonight as it was last night at this time with 35 degrees.  This will certainly be the coldest back to back mins I've ever recorded after the first week of April.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

If the 00Z GFS verified verbatim April would end up much warmer and drier than average.

Anything after the cool shot is just speculation at this point.  Up here it would take something pretty drastic to make the month end up well above normal with cold nights continuing this week.

BTW the dry aspect is actually old school.  Most of the driest Aprils were long ago.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The EPS control has a major GOA block again at the end of the run with a cold trough over us.  It's actually cold again well before the end of the run.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Down to 32F for freeze #49.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Low of 39 this morning...too much wind last night. Goodbye chilly mornings until October here probably...really hard to get down to 35 even at this point in the year. 

  • Windy 1

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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Dropped to 29 this morning.  After this my average low for the month to date is 33.3.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

Dome collapse and pyroclastic flows at St. Vincent this morning. Let's see how much worse it gets. 

It has been ramping for a larger eruption, so let's see if the intensity continues to increase.

It seems like it's already blown off a lot of pressure.  I remember with Mount Saint Helens there were only some rather small eruptions before the big one.  Unless this is a situation where sea water is able to get into the system in which case it could blow big.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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35 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Low of 27.9, now up to 32. Makes it the 5th low in the 20s since the start of April. 

Ready for another beautiful day!

Now we see if we are blocked enough from the north winds to do it again tonight.  If not tomorrow night looks good for frost again with weaker surface gradients.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It seems like it's already blown off a lot of pressure.  I remember with Mount Saint Helens there were only some rather small eruptions before the big one.  Unless this is a situation where sea water is able to get into the system in which case it could blow big.

There were a few small eruptions, then they stopped, then the mountain literally started bulging as if from pressure building up inside. It was pretty clear to me (even as a teen at the time) that something really big was about to happen.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Got down to 33F here both yesterday and today. 5-10 mph winds throughout both nights were the culprit. Looks like that's probably the last realistic chance for a freeze so I'll end up without a freeze in April. Last year I had 2 of them so it's not like it doesn't get down to freezing here this late in the season, just conditions haven't aligned.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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Already up to 43 now. Could see us hitting 60 later this afternoon. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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56 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Already up to 43 now. Could see us hitting 60 later this afternoon. 

The north winds are going to be really brisk today.  That should keep your area quite moderated.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Nice rain event in the middle of next week per the 12Z GFS... then a return to ridging.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There were a few small eruptions, then they stopped, then the mountain literally started bulging as if from pressure building up inside. It was pretty clear to me (even as a teen at the time) that something really big was about to happen.

I agree.  That bulge was pretty telltale.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

Got down to 33F here both yesterday and today. 5-10 mph winds throughout both nights were the culprit. Looks like that's probably the last realistic chance for a freeze so I'll end up without a freeze in April. Last year I had 2 of them so it's not like it doesn't get down to freezing here this late in the season, just conditions haven't aligned.

Really surprising.  Bellingham has gotten quite nippy the last two mornings.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Boat being de-winterized on Thursday... might be on the water this weekend per the 12Z GFS.   👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Boat being de-winterized on Thursday... might be on the water this weekend per the 12Z GFS.   👍

Why isn’t it on the water already?

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Why isn’t it on the water already?

Boat is in the garage.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Boat is in the garage.   

Figured with all the sunshine over the last month you would’ve been out there already.

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Just now, Phil said:

Figured with all the sunshine over the last month you would’ve been out there already.

No... mid-April is the earliest we ever start.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00z EPS is also picking up on that system ~ 192hrs out.

Going to be transient, but there are opportunities for rainfall even during this period of ridging.

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

00z EPS is also picking up on that system ~ 192hrs out.

Going to be transient, but there are opportunities for rainfall even during this period of ridging.

 

12Z GEFS barely shows it before building in more ridging.... but it would be extremely rare not to get some rain at times even in ridgy periods in the spring.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 12z GFS isn't bad.  One cool shot in the 9 to 11 day period, and then it ends with a trough over us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Looking like this isn't going to be as bad as Jesse had feared.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEFS barely shows it before building in more ridging.... but it would be extremely rare not to get some rain at times even in ridgy periods in the spring.  

The fact the GEFS shows it at all at this range is a miracle. :lol:

As time goes on, I suspect there will be more of these transient, undercutting systems sandwiched in the sea of ridging, and there’s a chance much of the region could end up with more rainfall during this ridgy cycle than than the recent troughy cycle, even though it’ll be warm/dry a majority of the time.

Similar to what happened in Feb, westerly momentum has been deposited in the tropics. As it is transferred poleward, much like Feb, it will produce the +PNA response and the cold air dump into the Central US (remember that huge arctic blast that froze Texas and clipped the PNW in Feb).

This is a very similar progression to that one, as will be the recoil (analogous to the flip to -PNA in March, following Feb cold attacks). Only this time we have the middle latitude -AAM moat propagating poleward which will culminating in the final stratwarm and inception of the summer NAM.

So IMO, the next troughy pattern in May is much likelier to deliver wetter than average conditions to the PNW since the middle latitude spatial AAM regime will have changed as well. 

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looking like this isn't going to be as bad as Jesse had feared.

Yeah... the 12Z GEFS looks frigid by the weekend after this coming weekend.  

 

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-9352000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The north winds are going to be really brisk today.  That should keep your area quite moderated.

We will see...it’s 49 now. Probably atleast upper 50s today. Wind makes it feel colder than it is currently though. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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There’s a couple patches of clouds over the cascades but you can clearly see all the snow left in the cascades currently. 

30BDE600-DBDA-46CF-AD1C-726D20E4370F.jpeg

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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12Z GEFS shows just a brief warm period... its almost over now.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1618228800-1618228800-1619481600-20.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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