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April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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3 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

High of 58* but definitely coat weather down here with the wind....brrrrrr.  Sound was rocking some nice whitecaps today from the NW winds.  Looking forward to thawing out this weekend. Me bones are 🥶 cold. 

B97BC851-BDE9-4E76-AC2F-73142ABD3BAF.jpeg

Those N winds were really blowing today.  The last couple of days have had about as strong a north wind as you ever see in my area.  It's usually pretty blocked here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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For everywhere wondering/speculating about where I have been, I am very flattered We have been on a road trip to Grand Teton and Yellowstone this week. Took a nice week off before starting a new

Getting married tomorrow so that’s why I’ve not been around a ton of late. Looks like we are about 68F out there and are ready for some much-needed rainfall overnight.

Well I haven't been around in a while. Been a little, erm, preoccupied. Hope everyone's enjoying the sunshine and warmth lately! I'll be in Arizona for the weekend, and hopeful I don't melt!

Posted Images

A really interesting evening wind, temperature, and dew point wise.  Temps are really plunging in areas that have lost the wind, while at the same time the east wind / north wind battle is taking places in some areas of the EPSL.  One of the more surprising temp readings right now is 36 at about 1500 feet at the western approach to Snoqualmie Pass.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Could be... but if the weather is totally different then it loses some meaning for me.    

Any similarities to 1951 or 1956?   Jim has been mentioning those years.

 

I’ll take a look.

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In addition to the warm days... it looks like the nights might be pretty warm later this week and into the weekend.   Looks like some lows in the 50s by the weekend.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Could be... but if the weather is totally different then it loses some meaning for me.    

Any similarities to 1951 or 1956?   Jim has been mentioning those years.

 

Following up on this.

VP200 data is systemically biased before the satellite era in NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, so resorted to SSTAs and evolution of 500mb heights during the spring season.

Looked through all of the 1950s. Problem is the Indo-Pacific warm pool structure was radically different during that period, such that any comparisons would be meaningless if you’re looking for seasonal analogs.

For instance, SSTAs in April 1951 and 1956. The Indo-West Pacific warm pool (which is the primal/alpha forcing for much of the low pass evolution and RWB state) bears no resemblance whatsoever to the present day regime there.

Both also have a strong +SIOD, which is the inverse of 2021.

 

585D0E07-88CE-478F-A71C-FFFF04860D45.png

D2089163-F5A0-4342-A340-8920A8BD179B.png

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Following up on this.

VP200 data is systemically biased before the satellite era in NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, so resorted to SSTAs and evolution of 500mb heights during the spring season.

Looked through all of the 1950s. Problem is the Indo-Pacific warm pool structure was radically different during that period, such that any comparisons would be meaningless since there’s no way to use those years as analogs.

For instance, SSTAs in April 1951 and 1956. The Indo-West Pacific warm pool (which is the primal/alpha forcing for much of the low pass evolution and RWB state) bears no resemblance whatsoever to the present day regime there.

 

585D0E07-88CE-478F-A71C-FFFF04860D45.png

D2089163-F5A0-4342-A340-8920A8BD179B.png

Very interesting.   

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very interesting.   

 

My advice would be to ignore the 1950s-1970s altogether for seasonal analogs at this point.

The only firm dynamical matches are (post-1998) years with -SIOD/-PMM following a 1st year -ENSO. Which eliminates 90% of years. For different + hypothetical reasons, I admit I have lightly weighed a few 1980s years (and 1975 ever so slightly) but the best matches are in the 1998-2002 and 2008-12 period.

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00Z GFS shows a really odd pattern after day 10... which probably won't happen... but it does have an AR-type rain event in about 11 days which would not be a bad thing.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-9265600.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-9265600.png

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39 minutes ago, Phil said:

My advice would be to ignore the 1950s-1970s altogether for seasonal analogs at this point.

The only firm dynamical matches are (post-1998) years with -SIOD/-PMM following a 1st year -ENSO. Which eliminates 90% of years. For different + hypothetical reasons, I admit I have lightly weighed a few 1980s years (and 1975 ever so slightly) but the best matches are in the 1998-2002 and 2008-12 period.

I have a feeling the 1930s are probably a better fit than the 50s, but we have so little reliable data from back then.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Big changes on the GFS tonight.  It changes next week and stays changed.

Meanwhile it looks like it has decoupled here tonight with a dp below freezing.  Wasn't expecting that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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That developing WPAC super typhoon is going to screw with guidance a bit (maybe more than a bit).

Though interestingly enough, there was a WPAC typhoon in mid/late April 1999 as well. :lol: And that one did affect the CONUS pattern. Though the exact timing is crucial for the wavetrain response. So it’s not a given the response will be analogous.

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6 minutes ago, The Blob said:

We need the DP to go into the negatives, that will make it feel really nice outside.

My lips feel kind of dry today. 

Then again, I haven't drank as much water as I normally do or should have today.

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Down to 43F out there. Very nice night.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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3 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

Afternoon temps Wednesday through next Monday are toasty.

 

c59cbe05-e68b-49e5-bad1-d309bce25540.gif

Snow Whizard's cool wave dream and mine is cancelled. Looks like my warm birthday curse is right on track! Full steam ahead! 🤣🤣🤣

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4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Big changes on the GFS tonight.  It changes next week and stays changed.

Meanwhile it looks like it has decoupled here tonight with a dp below freezing.  Wasn't expecting that.

Let me guess. The GFS has finally latched on to reality and going to have us go straight to the furnace?

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A light offshore wind is blowing at most foothill locations, while the lowest levels are cold and calm.
It's 32 at my house, yet 3 miles away it's 45. Larch Mountain is also 45 despite it's much higher elevation.
Brush Prairie is 49 and temperatures are in the low 50's in the gorge.

Screenshot_2021-04-13 NWS Weather Hazards.png

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Only got down to 43 last night warmest overnight low since February 5th. Up to 48 now and it’s only 8:40am. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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Looking likely that this weekend will have the warmest temperatures since early September. Should also be our warmest April temps since late April 2018. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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FWIW... the cool down next week is barely noticeable on the 12Z GEFS and its still warm even next weekend at 12 days out.

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-9352000 (1).png

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12z Euro shows highs reaching on either side of 70 starting Thursday, peaking in the mid/upper 70s over the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday nights are shown to still be in the low 70s by 11PM. That will feel pretty nice. Even Monday is still shown to be highs on either side of 70 which means some spots will have 5 days with highs in the 70s. Given it's still mid-April, can't really ask for much more than that.

Up to 62 here so far today with a DP of 19.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro shows highs reaching on either side of 70 starting Thursday, peaking in the mid/upper 70s over the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday nights are shown to still be in the low 70s by 11PM. That will feel pretty nice. Even Monday is still shown to be highs on either side of 70 which means some spots will have 5 days with highs in the 70s. Given it's still mid-April, can't really ask for much more than that.

Up to 62 here so far today with a DP of 19.

I was also noticing that it will be warm right out of the gate over the weekend... no waiting for it to warm up.  

The ECMWF is pretty much guaranteed to have a cool bias of at least 3-5 degrees (maybe a little more) in this situation.     I think you were factoring that in... and it looks like we have a decent chance at 80 degrees on both days this weekend.

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was also noticing that it will be warm right out of the gate over the weekend... no waiting for it to warm up.  

The ECMWF is pretty much guaranteed to have a cool bias of at least 3-5 degrees (maybe a little more) in this situation.     I think you were factoring that in... and it looks like we have a decent chance at 80 degrees on both days this weekend.

Going to feel absolutely amazing!! I need to start working on the veggie garden. 

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So much for that sharp cool down next week on the ECMWF... it actually looks like we go right back to the same set up we have this week on the 12Z run. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-9049600 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-9049600.png

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New Euro weeklies today are in better agreement with the resumption of -PNA/Western troughing early next month. Fits MJO timeline as well.

There’s light at the end of the tunnel! :D 

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Timing moved up a bit as well.

Looks like a -NAO too. I like watching ridges get destroyed. :lol: 

 

F604B897-B814-4785-95D4-697934C4798F.gif

I fully expect a wet and stormy 7-10 day period when this ridge breaks down finally.  And that will be needed.  But I also see some nice periods after that wet period in there.    There is hope for May yet!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Highs next Thursday per 12z Euro. 

This is after highs in the upper 60s Tuesday and either side of 70 on Wednesday. 

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-t2m_f_max6-9136000.png

April could end being a straight up summer month this year. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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Already up to 58 here as of 1230...matching yesterday’s high temp. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Highs next Thursday per 12z Euro. 

This is after highs in the upper 60s Tuesday and either side of 70 on Wednesday. 

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-t2m_f_max6-9136000.png

12Z EPS is not a dramatic with the ridging next week compared to the ECMWF... but its still warm.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-9136000.png

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12Z EPS goes zonal by the last week of the month... probably the pattern change the weeklies showed starting around that time.    It would be pretty funny if we get a bunch of rain on the last couple days of April that turns it into wetter than normal month.    😄

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-9524800.png

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50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I fully expect a wet and stormy 7-10 day period when this ridge breaks down finally.  And that will be needed.  But I also see some nice periods after that wet period in there.    There is hope for May yet!

We should do that PNW summer forecast contest again. Forgot to do it last year I think.

For what little it’s worth, I suspect May will average slightly cooler (and wetter?) than average with a mild week thrown in there somewhere given seasonal change in E-IO MJO relationship to NE-Pacific. But nothing super anomalous for the month as a whole.

Could be very wrong this far in advance, but also suspect you’ll be super-elated w/ August and September. Could be a big time western torch 🔥 on the tail end this year if low pass forcing comes out to 150E-160E.

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Up to 61 now with a decent north breeze. Feels great outside. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Up to 61 now with a decent north breeze. Feels great outside. 

North wind gusting to 25–30 creating some nice waves once again.  Had a high of 62 just a bit ago.  The sound is still angry and T-towns outdoor furniture pillows are now in someone’s yard in Olympia :(  

05DB4B1A-A102-48F3-8D44-A90382004458.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

North wind gusting to 25–30 creating some nice waves once again.  Had a high of 62 just a bit ago.  The sound is still angry and T-towns outdoor furniture pillows are now in someone’s yard in Olympia :(  

05DB4B1A-A102-48F3-8D44-A90382004458.jpeg

Great photo, haven’t been able to go to the waterfront here in awhile been working too much! 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Great photo, haven’t been able to go to the waterfront here in awhile been working too much! 

I’m gonna need to show up a bit earlier to walk your waterfront as traffic is about to get much worse down there with the nice weather moving in! 
 

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