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April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing that kills me about the way the GFS handles the trough next week is you can just tell the way it evolves looks doubtful.  Why is there such an obvious bug in it?

Yeah that’s probably not gonna happen.

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Must be smoldering wet crap season again! Yay! Had to stay confined to the house this otherwise lovely evening due to the people up from us not knowing how to burn wet brush. And also they conveniently waited until the wind was from the north so their house would not fill with smoke...But screw the neighbors!! There is my twice a year rant about how people do not know how to start a HOT fire! 

Anyway 54/37 on the day

They have been burning fields up here this week. Never seen that before this time of year. Must be fields they weren’t able to burn in September because of the fires. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Nice sunset. Hit 65 today. Easily warmest day of the spring. 

C96291F0-DD96-4DFB-9835-0D883AB67135.jpeg

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  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Could get a dusting Monday morning if current trends hold. 

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like the GFS is still in its own world with the trough next week.  I have $20 that says it caves this weekend if not sooner.

Jesse did get me to thinking earlier...this weather is almost acting like Central or Eastern WA.  We just had a significant drop in mid level temps from a cold front that didn't give us a drop of rain.  The temps in the mountains tonight are much lower than last night and it's crystal clear out there right now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Yikes. Don’t like this.

3DD90B84-12DA-4848-B171-B2EFCC81B3CF.png

Pretty rare if that happens.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Talk about an absolute perfect progression on Sunday for maximum cold anoms from a small chunk of cold air.  If the ECMWF verifies Sunday and Sunday night will be well below normal.  The surface pressure configuration is perfect for a quick clear out and temp crash Sunday evening.  It shows some places at freezing by mid evening.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Wow the 00z euro looks much warmer for the early and middle part of next week than the 12z run. Pretty boring pattern we’re stuck in, at least for those of us not on adderall.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

This has to be the most terrifying tornado video ever captured. RIP to his wife. 😞

 

Holy Mother of God!  Can you imagine the moment he realized his house was going to get hit?  Hard to believe he even lived.

That may end up being one of the most famous tornado videos ever shot.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Wow the 00z euro looks much warmer for the early and middle part of next week than the 12z run. Pretty boring pattern we’re stuck in, at least for those of us not on adderall.

It's not really that different overall.

  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Looks like some places are going to have frost again tonight.  This is getting pretty incredible in that regard.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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That tornado video that Phil posted last night made it hard for me to get to sleep last night.  Pretty incredible.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Same low as yesterday at 40. 

Dropped to 36 here after a low of 35 yesterday.  Off to a good start on cold lows this month.

That totally dry cold front was certainly a rarity here, and the one on Sunday looks downright impressive.  You might have a shot at a freeze (or at least frost) with that one.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Got down to 33 earlier this morning after a high of 62 yesterday. 

These colds nights with warm sunny days is a pattern I really like.

I like it too.  Happening to this degree puts us in some good company analog wise.  It seems that your temperature ranges are even sharper than mine.  The last two afternoons I got onshore winds to knock the edge off the highs.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Anyone surprised the 6z GFS blinked?  I'm not very happy with the GFS "upgrade".

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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37 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Shocked we haven’t seen any poolside Tim pics yet! 

Actually at the pool already... earlier than I wanted to be but had to reserve chairs.   It's already almost full.   And very warm.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

That tornado video that Phil posted last night made it hard for me to get to sleep last night.  Pretty incredible.

I’m just glad I don’t live in a place where that stuff happens. Don’t get me wrong I love severe thunderstorms, but I’d be happy to never see a tornado in my life.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Anyone surprised the 6z GFS blinked?  I'm not very happy with the GFS "upgrade".

New GFS seems to love those cutoff ULLs in the GOA. Second time it’s erroneously done that.

There probably is a warm pattern coming this month, especially towards the end of the month, but I don’t believe it will evolve that way. 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

New GFS seems to love those cutoff ULLs in the GOA. Second time it’s erroneously done that.

There probably is a warm pattern coming this month, but I don’t believe it will evolve that way. 

The last few days were pretty warm. Next couple look warm.

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OT post, but man spring is wild. Wind chill was in the teens this morning here, after snow squalls yesterday afternoon. Really hard to adjust to, after multiple days in the 80s. Could drop to 25°F or lower tonight. Then it’s probably back to torching next week.

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9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The last few days were pretty warm. Next couple look warm.

Probably. I was referring to the stuff next weekend, though. A portion of the MJO (or its upper level reflection in VP) is coming out over the Pacific in the middle of the period of most rapidly changing wave pool climatology. This would be a torch pattern if it were January. But now it’s a lot more muted and/or state dependent.

There could be a real torch out there late this month. Until then I doubt it.

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

The last few days were pretty warm. Next couple look warm.

Your kind of blind to the impressive cold mins we have been seeing.  It's been so wet here I just can't worked up about it being dry.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Pretty chilly 12z GFS run.

I was going to say the 12z ensemble is much cooler than previous runs.  The first half of the month looks impressively cold overall.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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It appears the afternoon temps on Sunday may be in the low to mid 40s in parts of the Puget Sound area.  Sunday night looks impressively cold at this point.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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It appears the GFS even takes Sunday's system too far west as it digs down.  The GEM and ECMWF have a more clipperish / colder track.  This model is a nightmare in handling this type of pattern.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Got down to 35F last night and now up to 54F. Another beautiful day upcoming.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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The ECMWF appears to be back on for a faster track for the deep trough.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Probably. I was referring to the stuff next weekend, though. A portion of the MJO (or its upper level reflection in VP) is coming out over the Pacific in the middle of the period of most rapidly changing wave pool climatology. This would be a torch pattern if it were January. But now it’s a lot more muted and/or state dependent.

There could be a real torch out there late this month. Until then I doubt it.

Very often we get an unusually cold trough before a huge warmup in these cases.  That might happen this time.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Wowzers.  There is some really cold air dumping into that trough next week on the ECMWF.  Might get interesting on this run.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Wow what a run.  Brrrr.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Euro looks pretty sweet. Maybe this Niña spring will finally start to get some life to it after all.

I'm not sue why you are so disappointed so far.  A lot of great years have had this cold night regime in the spring.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Amazingly the ECMWF only shows 0.8" of precip for SEA over the next 10 days in spite of that crazy trough.  Right now the MO is big on cold light on moisture.  Nothing wrong with that.  The run does show a little bit of lowland snow and way below normal temps.  For me cold is a big deal.  We get rain all of the time...at least up here we have.

  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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51 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Freeze #70 for HIO this morning.

Can we make 75? If a cold/dry pattern materializes next week it does look pretty plausible...

I'll probably end up in the 50s for freezes, and this is a pretty good spot.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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At least the EPS is finally showing a warm up after that cold trough next weekend.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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One thing for sure is it isn't warm out there today.  Lots of low clouds, onshore winds, and only 52.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At least the EPS is finally showing a warm up after that cold trough next weekend.

Sometimes we get our coldest anoms just before a big warmup.  No question the trough next week looks cold on this run.  We are right on the bottom of it which is normally cold.  Even the Sunday thing (as modest as it is) brings a pretty noteworthy chill Sunday and Sunday night.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing for sure is it isn't warm out there today.  Lots of low clouds, onshore winds, and only 52.

In for lunch... just checked and it looks quite nice at our house.

 

nb 42.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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