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April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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For everywhere wondering/speculating about where I have been, I am very flattered We have been on a road trip to Grand Teton and Yellowstone this week. Took a nice week off before starting a new

Getting married tomorrow so that’s why I’ve not been around a ton of late. Looks like we are about 68F out there and are ready for some much-needed rainfall overnight.

Well I haven't been around in a while. Been a little, erm, preoccupied. Hope everyone's enjoying the sunshine and warmth lately! I'll be in Arizona for the weekend, and hopeful I don't melt!

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Looks like a combination of retrogression and undercut is emerging as the most likely end to this pattern.  A really decent cold front with some rain just after day 10 and the minor dry cold front before that.

All in all a normal pattern doesn't look to come any time soon.  Still a lot of blockiness in week two but further west.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS shows a weak little ULL early next week... but the real pattern change holds off until day 10 with rain moving in at that time.   I am bit skeptical about things turning more progressive pattern with that cold trough anchored in the middle of the country. 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-9265600 (1).png

That trough isn’t “anchored” (although I wish it was 😂). It’s a forced response to wave breaking over the Pacific.

Its presence can’t prevent the transition to a more zonal pattern next month. Some guidance is rushing that pattern change a bit, as always, but eventually the combination of the propagating MJO, transfer of deposited AAM, and extra diabatic heat release from the WPAC typhoon will get things moving over the NPAC and force a more zonal response over North America. Or at least western North America.

Hopefully CA/SW US can score some rainfall. Could be their last chance.

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1 hour ago, iFred said:

Got frosty again in Everett. Some of my flowers are already dead but I'm thankful I haven't started the overseed on the lawn.

I replanted a damaged part of our lawn three weeks ago.  Still nothing...the seeds are just sitting there.  The latest models indicate more frost potential right to the end of the month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Low of 46 this morning after a low of 43 yesterday. Already up to 51 degrees should be the warmest day of the year (until tomorrow). 

This is where your location is really killing you for low temps.  SEA getting down to 39 was really surprising.  Even more so when seeing your low.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

That trough isn’t “anchored” (although I wish it was 😂). It’s a forced response to wave breaking over the Pacific.

Its presence can’t prevent the transition to a more zonal pattern next month. Some guidance is rushing that pattern change a bit, as always, but eventually the combination of the propagating MJO, transfer of deposited AAM, and extra diabatic heat release from the WPAC typhoon will get things moving over the NPAC and force a more zonal response over North America. Or at least western North America.

Hopefully CA/SW US can score some rainfall. Could be their last chance.

Are you thinking really zonal or a return to a GOA ridge?  The default seems to be blocking overall with the placement moving around from time to time.

I agree that the progressive MJO will inevitably change the pattern back to some kind of cool regime in the NW.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is where your location is really killing you for low temps.

Yeah lol we only had 20 freezes this year. Being too close to the sound usually means too much wind as well as a moderating effect from the Puget sound.

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Are you thinking really zonal or a return to a GOA ridge?  The default seems to be blocking overall with the placement moving around from time to time.

I agree that the progressive MJO will inevitably change the pattern back to some kind of cool regime in the NW.

I’m thinking more zonal and/or progressive this time (at least initially) due to more AAM being transferred through the subtropics and the typhoon influence. 

Doesn’t mean it’ll stay that way, though. At some we’ll probably see that sharper GOA/Aleutian ridge pattern return. When exactly that happens is unclear to me. 

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Latest Nino 3.4 departure is -0.5C. JFM ONI came in at -0.9C. All in all this Nina was only slightly stronger than 2017-18. Recent guidance is trending towards a weak Nina by late fall/early winter. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Latest Nino 3.4 departure is -0.5C. JFM ONI came in at -0.9C. All in all this Nina was only slightly stronger than 2017-18. Recent guidance is trending towards a weak Nina by late fall/early winter. 

Given the overall blockiness this year and a likely weak Nina next winter we could have some fun.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

D9-16 looking much better on the 06z GEFS.

098FFD0D-0ABC-43A5-930B-0DAB4C5B8713.png

Indeed.  Even the weak / dry cold front next week is being shown to drop the 850s a bit below normal.  The next front looks wetter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Given the overall blockiness this year and a likely weak Nina next winter we could have some fun.

I think it will be a decent winter, but who knows. This past winter was extremely disappointing here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12Z ECMWF sends that little ULL into northern CA next Tuesday with a little rain down there... and it barely dents the warm 850 temps up here.  

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8963200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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There is weak GOA troughing forming around day 10 on the 12Z EPS... but it still looks generally warm.   850mb temps are warmer than normal for all of the next 10 days per this run.  

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-9265600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Up to 58 now...feels warmer than yesterday though since we’ve got lighter northerly winds this afternoon. Can’t wait to get the next couple days off work to go camping tomorrow. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF sends that little ULL into northern CA next Tuesday with a little rain down there... and it barely dents the warm 850 temps up here.  

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8963200.png

Although we’ve been dry they need it more than us. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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Snow pack is still above average in the Willamette Basin, so that is nice. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Some wetter weather showing up on the EPS in the 10-15 day range with SW flow... but not seeing much of a cold signal.    Warmer rain would definitely be better right now.   The cold air masses have been just too dry.  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1618401600-1618401600-1619697600-20.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Beautifully situated jet week 2 (D8-15) on 12z EPS.

Would be better to have it farther south, but given -ENSO regime that’ll be a difficult task.

DA1F783F-D8D1-4CCB-BF50-1CEF5746080D.png

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I got my hearing aids today today and I can HEAR again!  Too many years of loud music.  It just blows my mind how much I was missing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I think Tim is in denial.  After the next 5 days or so the 850s are going to drop sharply and that will pretty much be it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think Tim is in denial.  After the next 5 days or so the 850s are going to drop sharply and that will pretty much be it.

Denial about what?   10 days of warmer than normal 850mb temps and then some rain.  That is what the EPS shows.   If you think 850mb temps are going to be cold all of next week then you might be in denial.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Here is the 12Z EPS at day 9... very cold air returns in 5 days.  Those 850mb temps just crash hard.    😁

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-9179200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

71 degrees.

61 here. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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Spotted Randy 

FBB4A9F2-FC57-46DD-A63F-B7880A009F93.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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19 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Screenshot_20210414-143311_Chrome.jpg

Quilayute broke their record high temp already today it looks like...70 there. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Spotted Randy 

FBB4A9F2-FC57-46DD-A63F-B7880A009F93.png

I wish!!! However that is a Yamaha (with the signature water fountain out the back) I have never cared for their lineup of watercraft. 

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Something has kept the temps as rising as high as I thought they would in the Puget Sound region.  Only a couple degrees warmer than yesterday.  With dps still low and more favorable surface pressure gradients tonight we should see a number of places drop to freezing again tonight.  Crazy!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Looking my pics from 2019 & 2020 (we moved in the first week of May 2018 so I can’t use that year just yet) it appears my landscaping is about a week behind those two years. 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Looking my pics from 2019 & 2020 (we moved in the first week of May 2018 so I can’t use that year just yet) it appears my landscaping is about a week behind those two years. 

Same here... about a week behind.   But catching up now.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Up to 58 now...feels warmer than yesterday though since we’ve got lighter northerly winds this afternoon. Can’t wait to get the next couple days off work to go camping tomorrow. 

Great timing for sure. Where are you going?

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The 12Z ECMWF this morning showed a high of 59 at SEA today... actual high was 67.     It ended up warmer than I thought.   

The ECMWF shows 67 at SEA tomorrow so it is likely going to be in the low to mid 70s.    Its shows 72-73 on Friday so 80 is a possibility that day.  

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Great timing for sure. Where are you going?

Going out to Anderson island. I usually camp out there a few times a year. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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You know the forums are in for a hot time when one poster thinks it will be very cold and the other thinks it will be very warm then they both argue and throw some VERY colorful words at each other.  The real truth is often right in the middle but never mind the skulls piling at the sides of the screens.  Nothing to see here folks! The Naked Gun - "Nothing to see here!" (1080p) - YouTube

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2 minutes ago, Link said:

You know the forums are in for a hot time when one poster thinks it will be very cold and the other thinks it will be very warm then they both argue and throw some four letter words at each other.  The real truth is often right in the middle. 

I have seen any of that.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have seen any of that.  

I just saw it a few posts back minus the colorful words part: Yet........

 You and Snow having an argument where he see's all this cold air that ain't there. I really don't get where he see's things. 🤔

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Just now, Link said:

I just saw it a few posts back. You and Snow having an argument where he see's all this cold air that ain't there.

Arguing and 4-letter words?   Do you mean "warm" and "cold"?   😄

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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