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April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Arguing and 4-letter words?   Do you mean "warm" and "cold"?   😄

DON'T SAY THOSE WORDS!  We need a Yakker Tracker for these forums.  I wonder how often it would go red?

 

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For everywhere wondering/speculating about where I have been, I am very flattered We have been on a road trip to Grand Teton and Yellowstone this week. Took a nice week off before starting a new

Getting married tomorrow so that’s why I’ve not been around a ton of late. Looks like we are about 68F out there and are ready for some much-needed rainfall overnight.

Well I haven't been around in a while. Been a little, erm, preoccupied. Hope everyone's enjoying the sunshine and warmth lately! I'll be in Arizona for the weekend, and hopeful I don't melt!

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Just now, Link said:

Is the top map where Snow is seeing all that 'cold air' coming from?

That is at 13 days out... Jim is talking about it crashing in 5 days.     I just don't think next week is going to be too cold.

Fore reference... here is the 850mb from the 18Z GEFS for the same time at the maps Phil posted.    Its a good pattern because its wet without being real cold.    These cold air masses have been too dry.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-9503200.png

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is at 13 days out... Jim is talking about it crashing in 5 days.     I just don't think next week is going to be too cold.

Fore reference... here is the 850mb from the 18Z GEFS for the same time at the maps Phil posted.    Its a good pattern because its wet without being real cold.    These cold air masses have been too dry.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-9503200.png

That's what I meant. Jim see's all this cold and it happens a lot then he sets everyone *including himself* up for major disappointment when in reality the pattern just wasn't really there.  He'll then not show for a long time when the pattern isn't 'promising' as in 🤮 for too long.

 

Sometimes he scores major for you guys and it's always fun to see:  but it's like throwing darts and Oregon is usually ignored in his forecast so if he does score decent it means squat down here.  Reading between the lines is what I've learned since Oregon get's the shaft. If it weren't for the Eugene poster I'd be left in the dark since he helps balance the rest.  I'm glad he's finally got an Accurite station. 

It'll be fun this summer when we're hitting around 90F and you guys claim it's cloudy and cool. He'll be able to back statements up about our area.

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3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I got my hearing aids today today and I can HEAR again!  Too many years of loud music.  It just blows my mind how much I was missing.

Do they actually help with voices?  Tinnitus here :( and over a third of my hearing gone with the wind 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Do they actually help with voices?  Tinnitus here :( and over a third of my hearing gone with the wind 

 

Do you think in real life Link would lose half his hearing after blowing up some of the monster camps with his remote bombs especially the ones with TNT barrels? Those are always fun and are my monster alarm clock when it's time to wake em up! https://zelda-archive.fandom.com/wiki/Remote_Bomb#:~:text=The Remote Bomb in Breath of the Wild,case they will remain (mostly) inert once set.

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42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is at 13 days out... Jim is talking about it crashing in 5 days.     I just don't think next week is going to be too cold.

Fore reference... here is the 850mb from the 18Z GEFS for the same time at the maps Phil posted.    Its a good pattern because its wet without being real cold.    These cold air masses have been too dry.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-9503200.png

It definitely won’t start out cold. Could be a warm/dry —> warm/wet —> cool/wet —> cool/dry progression with time.

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

It definitely won’t start out cold. Could be a warm/dry —> warm/wet —> cool/wet —> cool/dry progression with time.

Matt has some acronyms for this.

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11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I think there will be several 83-86 readings in many areas, especially Fri/Sat.  Today was significantly warmer here than forecasted.

Almost too warm to golf! 

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Running -1.4 for the month as of today...but that’ll be totally wiped out soon. In addition to being in the 70s I’m betting we will get some really warm overnight lows with offshore flow here.

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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44 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

73/32 here.

That’s a really impressive temp spread. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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It’s been a really long time since it was this warm in the evening...currently 56 degrees. Feels like a summer night. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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My line of work has a saying "sun's out guns out"

And while that sounds specific, it just applies to any kind of disturbance. Rings true after today, where my neighbor went into a full-blown crisis and screamed for hours that he was a federal officer executing a search warrant on his own house and screaming at someone not there to "get on your knees, put your hands behind your head, you're under arrest. GET ON THE GROUND NOW". I ignored it as best I could, judging from my experience that this was likely a stimulant-enhanced crisis situation...until he started harassing children and other passersby to call 911 or else they would be arrested. So I dialed 911, as all of my neighbors seem averse to the concept of calling emergency response when someone is clearly beginning to show a risk to other parties.

Well, 2 officers became 7. The road became blocked as he busted out his windows and refused to show his hands. Finally after an hour or so of him escalating further, they had to crowd behind a riot shield and make entry, likely putting him on an involuntary psychiatric hold for the next 72 hours.

Is there a lesson in all of this? No. Is it weather related? Not particularly, unless you believe he was calling upon Cthulu to break the ridging pattern and soak us in precip. Is it a great way to get to know a new neighbor? You betcha.

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47 here this morning... looks like the low was 44.

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17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

47 here this morning... looks like the low was 44.

We actually came in quite a bit cooler this morning with less wind. Got down to 38...and should be in the low 70s this afternoon. Could be a pretty impressive temp spread here. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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Looks like a sunny day. 

  • Sun 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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06z gfs shows about 4” of rain here between now and the end of the month. It would still end up a dry month if that verified, but about 70% of normal. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I love the 6z GFS.  850s drop sharply around the 20th and it doesn't look back.  Nice cold looking setup late month.

Meanwhile it only dropped to 38 here last night, but what an amazing run for the first of April.  Not a single low above 38.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Had a low of 40...First low not in the 20’s or 30’s in a long time it seems like. 

It's been an incredible run.  I've only had 6 lows above 40 here since January 12th.  That has to be some kind of record for this area.  I don't think we have seen our last frost yet either.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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OLM still managed to drop to 30 last night.  Just a ridiculous run of cold nights for them.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Dropped down to 36 here, now already up to 60.

Yeah... it feels like summer morning here.   I have the house all open already.

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A very snowy weekend for Jared per the 12Z GFS...

 

gfs-deterministic-colorado-total_snow_10to1-8898400.png

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12Z GFS is 20 degrees warmer for the Seattle area next Tuesday compared to the 00Z run.    00Z run showed highs in the 50s with rain... 12Z run shows low 70s.

00Z run on top and 12Z run on the bottom... 850mb temps for Tuesday afternoon.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8963200 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8963200.png

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12Z GFS is much less zonal later next week than the 06Z run... 850mb temps are still pretty warm next Friday and its much colder in the middle of the continent.     It appears that offshore trough will finally make progress eastward by next weekend... but this is going to likely be a slow cool down.

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-9222400.png

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We sneak one more warm day on the 12Z GFS next Saturday... 

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-9298000 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-t2m_f_max6-9308800.png

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31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is 20 degrees warmer for the Seattle area next Tuesday compared to the 00Z run.    00Z run showed highs in the 50s with rain... 12Z run shows low 70s.

00Z run on top and 12Z run on the bottom... 850mb temps for Tuesday afternoon.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8963200 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-8963200.png

GEFS is also trending warmer for early next week... keeps the warm 850mb temps over WA on Tuesday which is significantly warmer than previous runs. 

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-8963200.png

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55 here at 10am...warming up fast should hit 70 this afternoon. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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Got down to 36F and now up to 58F. Great day at the books yesterday so that should cover the 21-22 winter's WB subscription.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Got down to 36F and now up to 58F. Great day at the books yesterday so that should cover the 21-22 winter's WB subscription.

Nice!  

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I love the 6z GFS.  850s drop sharply around the 20th and it doesn't look back.  Nice cold looking setup late month.

Meanwhile it only dropped to 38 here last night, but what an amazing run for the first of April.  Not a single low above 38.

Cold setup comes after the jet extension. Remainder of the month looks warm to me and eventually turning wetter. I think the second week of May is when actual cold (IE: not flat Pacific flow) is likely to return. At which point it should dry out again 

There’s also the final stratwarm to deal with (the cold anomalies over the central/eastern US are indirectly related to the RWs triggering the FSW).

There’s very likely to be a +TNH/+PNA like pattern (on average) until we flip the calendar over. Or whenever subsidence vacates the E-IO.

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Looks like the first half of April will average around 45.3 IMBY which is 3 degrees below normal for the first half of April.  Still very much in the running for a below normal monthly average.  The final third is as clear as mud right now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Cold setup comes after the jet extension. Remainder of the month looks warm to me and eventually turning wetter. I think the second week of May is when actual cold (IE: not flat Pacific flow) is likely to return. At which point it should dry out again 

There’s also the final stratwarm to deal with (the cold anomalies over the central/eastern US are indirectly related to the process triggering the FSW).

There’s very likely to be a +TNH/+PNA like pattern (on average) until we flip the calendar over.

We'll see.  I hope you're wrong.  Just want to get a nice streak of below normal months here.  It's pretty obvious there is a lot of uncertainty given how amplified everything is.  We might even get some SW wind onshore flow next week which could be cool just at the low levels.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the first half of April will average around 45.3 IMBY which is 3 degrees below normal for the first half of April.  Still very much in the running for a below normal monthly average.  The final third is as clear as mud right now.

I don't see many more frosty nights ahead.     Definitely some rain though in the 10-15 day period.  

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45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GEFS is also trending warmer for early next week... keeps the warm 850mb temps over WA on Tuesday which is significantly warmer than previous runs. 

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-8963200.png

The bottom line is we will just have to wait and see.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots of maps.

The ECMWF did shift in a much wetter direction after D8. As I referenced w/ the 1999/2008 subseasonal cycles, these +PNA/+TNH type patterns in -ENSO regimes tend to be followed by highly progressive/zonal patterns. And 2021 has all the hallmarks of that w/ upcoming poleward transfer of deposited tropical AAM and the WPAC typhoon. 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't see many more frosty nights ahead.     Definitely some rain though in the 10-15 day period.  

The 6z GFS was pretty cold looking late month.  I bet we see more frost just given the past history of this type of spring.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The bottom line is we will just have to wait and see.

That is pretty much true all the time.  😄

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

A very snowy weekend for Jared per the 12Z GFS...

 

gfs-deterministic-colorado-total_snow_10to1-8898400.png

3-6" expected tonight.

In the midst of quite the cool stretch going on here and much of the central US.

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Tim's hot girl summer.

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The 6z GFS was pretty cold looking late month.  I bet we see more frost just given the past history of this type of spring.

Yeah... the 06Z GFS in the long range is a good source.  👍

The 00Z EPS did not scream clear and cold with frosty nights in the 10-15 day period.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-9740800.png

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

The ECMWF did shift in a much wetter direction after D8. As I referenced w/ the 1999/2008 subseasonal cycles, these +PNA/+TNH type patterns in -ENSO regimes tend to be followed by highly progressive/zonal patterns. And 2021 has all the hallmarks of that w/ upcoming poleward transfer of deposited tropical AAM and the WPAC typhoon. 

A rainy period is inevitable... just a question of when.    Some rain will be nice.

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see.  I hope you're wrong.  Just want to get a nice streak of below normal months here.  It's pretty obvious there is a lot of uncertainty given how amplified everything is.  We might even get some SW wind onshore flow next week which could be cool just at the low levels.

Maybe. I don’t know how that works at your particular location. I just think if you’re anticipating a return to cool/dry, that you’re probably going to be waiting a little longer than you think. Guidance often rushes this stuff.

It’ll happen eventually. And the way things have set up increase the odds for a cool June/July out there (and a warm to hot August/September, possibly). But it won’t be that way all the time. 

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