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April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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Up to 65 already here... before 11 a.m.

You can practically watch the trees leafing here out now.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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For everywhere wondering/speculating about where I have been, I am very flattered We have been on a road trip to Grand Teton and Yellowstone this week. Took a nice week off before starting a new

Getting married tomorrow so that’s why I’ve not been around a ton of late. Looks like we are about 68F out there and are ready for some much-needed rainfall overnight.

Well I haven't been around in a while. Been a little, erm, preoccupied. Hope everyone's enjoying the sunshine and warmth lately! I'll be in Arizona for the weekend, and hopeful I don't melt!

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

A rainy period is inevitable... just a question of when.    Some rain will be nice.

12z GEFS looks better than 06z out there.

 

6EDA74DD-35A3-41EF-BA5E-9E52C20982EB.png

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

12z GEFS looks better than 06z out there.

 

6EDA74DD-35A3-41EF-BA5E-9E52C20982EB.png

Yeah... my guess is that a wetter pattern starts next weekend.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Maybe. I don’t know how that works at your particular location. I just think if you’re anticipating a return to cool/dry, that you’re probably going to be waiting a little longer than you think. Guidance often rushes this stuff.

It’ll happen eventually. And the way things have set up increase the odds for a cool June/July out there (and a warm to hot August/September, possibly). But it won’t be that way all the time. 

The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on a robust and progressive MJO wave right now.  It seems like that may favor retrogression of an amplified pattern over a zonal flow outcome.  Going to be interesting to see how it plays out.  I'll be interested to see if the 12z EPS still shows a trough over us by day 10 like the 0z run did.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Front Ranger is going to be seeing some snow. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Up to 65 already here... before 11 a.m.

You can practically watch the trees leafing here out now.  

Interesting how far behind you guys are. As long as I’ve been a member here it seems leaf out up there is usually a few weeks faster than here, but this year it’s ~ 3 weeks later.

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11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

3-6" expected tonight.

In the midst of quite the cool stretch going on here and much of the central US.

I'm highly intrigued that pretty much everywhere in both the US and Europe have had at least one turn at abnormally cold weather over the past several weeks.  Very interesting regime we're in right now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, Phil said:

Interesting how far behind you guys are. As long as I’ve been a member here it seems leaf out up there is usually a few weeks faster than here, but this year it’s ~ 3 weeks later.

Definitely slower this year... too dry with too many chilly nights.   

But by next week we will probably be basically caught up.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm highly intrigued that pretty much everywhere in both the US and Europe have had at least one turn at abnormally cold weather over the past several weeks.  Very interesting regime we're in right now.

Snow in Denver is April and May is almost an annual occurrence.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Interesting how far behind you guys are. As long as I’ve been a member here it seems leaf out up there is usually a few weeks faster than here, but this year it’s ~ 3 weeks later.

It is very late.  Cold nights and very dry air are the likely culprits.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on a robust and progressive MJO wave right now.  It seems like that may favor retrogression of an amplified pattern over a zonal flow outcome.  Going to be interesting to see how it plays out.  I'll be interested to see if the 12z EPS still shows a trough over us by day 10 like the 0z run did.

Interesting. My take is the inverse..that this MJO/GWO actually favors a zonal outcome initially, which evolves into a meridional/ULL dominated pattern with cold/warm swings, before the actual -PNA gets going later on.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Snow in Denver is April and May is almost an annual occurrence.  

The setup is highly abnormal though.  -6.5 EPO's don't happen very often.  My point was the extreme amplification has given everyone some real cold recently.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting. My take is the inverse..that this MJO/GWO actually favors a zonal outcome initially, which evolves into a meridional/ULL dominated pattern with cold/warm swings, before the actual -PNA gets going later on.

You could very well be right.  At any rate I'm sure our time for troughing / cool will return.  This is a share the wealth type of year obviously.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just had a facebook memory pop up from this day in 2017... it was the day before Easter.    The trees were late that year as well and look just about the same as they do right now.   Our cottonwoods were just starting to leaf out at this point in 2017 and that is happening right now.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Really nice cool signal on the 12z GFS ensemble to finish out the month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It is very late.  Cold nights and very dry air are the likely culprits.

Yeah I assume it must be related to the dryness. I thought this cool/wet pattern would slow things down here, but it seems to have done exactly the opposite. I guess precip is the big kahuna.

We had partial leaf out in March this year which is unusual. Happened in 2016 and 2012 but that’s about it for the last decade.

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Mobile boat mechanic is here... boat is de-winterized and ready for Lake Sammamish this weekend.    This will be the second earliest first run.   The earliest was April 13th in 2014... and that was a on 72 degree day.     This year its going to be an 80-degree day.    We were also out on 4/19 in 2016 on an 85-degree day.   :)

20210415_110546.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Always nice to see how the 1% live. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Wish this big daddy troughing would’ve shown up a few weeks earlier. It’s essentially wasted now.

Looks beautiful aloft, but we’ll be in the 60s/70s most days thanks to insolation and downsloping. 😒 Thought we could do a little better, but apparently not.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Always nice to see how the 1% live. 

With our $8,000 boat?     We are usually one of the crappiest boats at the launch on Lake Sammamish.   😄

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just had a facebook memory pop up from this day in 2017... it was the day before Easter.    The trees were late that year as well and look just about the same as they do right now.   Our cottonwoods were just starting to leaf out at this point in 2017 and that is happening right now.  

I took my nephew to Snoqualmie Pass that day to show him snow for the first time and remember the trees has several inches of fresh snow on them. 

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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72 here and calm... feels really warm out here.     First 70-degree+ day.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF brings the rain in by next Saturday.    About 36 hours slower than the 00Z run.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF brings the rain in by next Saturday.    About 36 hours slower than the 00Z run.

An astounding prolonged, and astoundingly warm, warm spell. I consider it compensation for the prolonged cold pattern since February.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

And 73 was the NWS forecast high for here, that is gonna bust.

Seems like they don't adjust for the ECMWF cool bias.    12Z ECMWF showed upper 60s here today... blew past that before noon.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yesterday as I was delivering in the Woodinville-Bothell area I was seeing temps as high as 67. Little cooler for a high near the sound at 64. At 64 right now with a low of 41. 

I have a cousin in Fort Collins and I know, not too many years ago they had a little snow in early June! Snow in April is not strange at all and it happened about every other April where I was from in the Great Lakes. 

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

E97335F8-0021-4BE8-9D9D-28613F740DC7.gif

 

And does not real look cold... 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1618488000-1618488000-1619784000-20.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

And does not real look cold... 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1618488000-1618488000-1619784000-20.gif

Nope, not cold. Or at least not yet.

Though 850mb anomalies don’t necessarily reveal much about the pattern. Especially on a 51 member ensemble mean at-range with an active intraseasonal cycle.

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Speaking of which..she’s really moving. By the end of the run we’re almost back to the VP200 signal observed in mid-March. This will lead to the next trade wind surge next month.

F5C615EE-244C-4B4E-9618-2298C10CE14B.png

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75 here now... our cottonwoods look noticeably more leafed out even since earlier this morning.    The trees are on a fast track for the next few days.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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72 at SEA now... first 70-degree day there too.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Can’t remember our last April red flag warning...🤔

Nina spring!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Overdue at this point. The dry freaks are living on borrowed time.

Some rain will be nice... but after we enjoy this spectacular summer-like weekend ahead.   😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Leafout is getting very, very quick here.

High of 71 after a low of 36

We were behind by a couple weeks with buds only starting to green on 4/7. Now we are at our normal pace with buds breaking open and and some of the larger trees like the cottonwoods, featuring poms of brown tinted green.

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The models are insisting on a big change being in place by the 25th, and the minor shot of cooler air next week.  It's really interesting how much cold air is still in play at the end of the month if the 18z GFS is to be believed.  A period of well below normal temps after this warm period wouldn't be at all surprising given the track record this year for most places in the US.  Pretty sharp variability pretty much everywhere.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just noticed the 12z GEM had a way different and colder solution for next week.  Sometimes that model comes out on top when it goes rogue like that, but it's not the most likely outcome.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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