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April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In for lunch... just checked and it looks quite nice at our house.

 

nb 42.png

What’s for lunch???

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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More snow than we saw all of March...

Two extremely biased, self-absorbed ships passing in the night.🥰🥰🥰

Woke up to a nice scene this morning 

Posted Images

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In for lunch... just checked and it looks quite nice at our house.

 

nb 42.png

It appears the mountains between me and you are blocking the low clouds.

It's pretty remarkable how easy it is for the days to reach the upper 50s this time year.  The air mass isn't warm today.  To get a max in the low 50s or below takes something pretty impressive this time of year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

What’s for lunch???

Something amazing... leftover pizza.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

What’s for lunch???

If there were a Cracker Barrel or In-N-Out within 50 miles then probly there. But since this metro area has the fewest chain restaurants in the country relative to its population, then we're stuck with either generic shitt like McDonald's or Taco Bell or independent places where somebody can blow way more money (and we don't even have a bunch of those).

We're basically a city where we cook our food more than we go out. And that's fine because we're usually able to save $. Today was a leftover chicken wrap from yesterday. Was good.

Edit: Got that sweet downvote from Jesse 😉 The ecstasy that must be experienced the moment he feels and hears the mouse click and that big red arrow pop up. I can only imagine.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 hour ago, iFred said:

Nice day out.

Yup. Now at 62F and filtered sunshine.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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15 hours ago, Phil said:

This has to be the most terrifying tornado video ever captured. RIP to his wife. 😞

 

I've heard of them making last minute turns, but to see it like that.....holy crap!  Luckily was only in a handful of tornado warnings growing up.  Only one dropped a tornado nearby, but no damage where I was at.  Did have a nasty bout of straight line winds nearby when I was in high school.  I slept through the storm, found out from the note on my windshield about my alarm going off several times through the storm, then later that day going to a friends house, hitting an area where 60-70% of the trees were snapped off 30-60 feet in the air.  Crazy stuff!

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Been awhile since we had a spring (MAM) without at least one almost historically dry stretch. 2017 was the last one, and that was sandwiched in between 2015 which had an extremely dry late spring, 2016 which had an extremely warm/dry April/May, and 2018 which had another extreme dry late spring.

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16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Been awhile since we had a spring (MAM) without at least one almost historically dry stretch. 2017 was the last one, and that was sandwiched in between 2015 which had an extremely dry late spring, 2016 which had an extremely warm/dry April/May, and 2018 which had another extreme dry late spring.

Hey on the bright side at least all of those springs were in REALLY COLD years.

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Holy crap, the 18z is cold for April! 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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59/40 today. Almost exactly the same as yesterday. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Edit: Got that sweet downvote from Jesse 😉 The ecstasy that must be experienced the moment he feels and hears the mouse click and that big red arrow pop up. I can only imagine.

That one was actually on my phone. Not quite as satisfying but still needed to be done.

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The models are showing a big dump of cold air from Alaska over the GOA early in week two.  If that comes directly here lowland snow would be a real possibility.  Something to watch.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Ugly. I might have to escape to Tim’s house if this verifies.

6EA3B359-9341-41BC-AD4C-AF824FA5EAEA.png

There was huge summer heatwave in 1955 that looked almost like that.  The far NW and far NE were the only places to escape it.  We ended up with one of the coldest summers on record here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Holy crap, the 18z is cold for April! 

Could be colder if that blast from AK comes here more directly.  The 12z ECMWF showed the same cold dump, but a more direct path to our area.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The ECMWF continues to show it could drop to freezing by midnight Sunday night.  Pretty impressive in my book.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 hours ago, Jesse said:

Hey on the bright side at least all of those springs were in REALLY COLD years.

Good lord you are in a snit right now.  I don't get it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Good lord you are in a snit right now.  I don't get it.

Best to ignore it and not take the bait in times like these.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good lord you are in a snit right now.  I don't get it.

Just a difference of opinion. You seem to be sort of flipping out over fairly mundane weather lately. It happens. Maybe you are seeing something I am not. In reality we have seen a lot of these dry springs with chilly nights at times in recent years though. Hasn't meant much for our winters or being in an overall cool regime regionally. I apologize if that is offensive or considered throwing out "bait" in some way. I know a lot of people here don't like me and thus will automatically take a defensive posture, but what I'm saying isn't really wrong.

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Beautiful evening on the central Oregon coast. 

F3CC07FD-CF3F-4C68-9D13-548D50F01737.jpeg

93F2E288-C6AE-4D55-8F26-85F6849E7A5B.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Beautiful evening on the central Oregon coast. 

F3CC07FD-CF3F-4C68-9D13-548D50F01737.jpeg

93F2E288-C6AE-4D55-8F26-85F6849E7A5B.jpeg

Looks like one of the lakes in the dunez.

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39 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good lord you are in a snit right now.  I don't get it.

He gets his panties in a bunch anytime the weather is anything other than dark and rainy. Doesn't matter if it's sunny and 70 or cold and 35, if it's not raining Jesse ain't happy and will make sure everyone knows it. 

Best to just ignore it, IMO.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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The EPS is showing that cold pouring out over the GOA next week also.  Some model runs have brought that on a very direct path into the NW.  That trough might be something special.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The EPS is showing that cold pouring out over the GOA next week also.  Some model runs have brought that on a very direct path into the NW.  That trough might be something special.

I definitely agree with you that the pattern showing up on some models later next week would be impressive if verified.

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9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

He gets his panties in a bunch anytime the weather is anything other than blazing hot and smokey. Doesn't matter if it's 45 and sunny or 70 and raining. If trees aren’t on fire, Tim ain't happy and will make sure everyone knows it. 

Best to just ignore it, IMO.

Yep.

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39 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Just a difference of opinion. You seem to be sort of flipping out over fairly mundane weather lately. It happens. Maybe you are seeing something I am not. In reality we have seen a lot of these dry springs with chilly nights at times in recent years though. Hasn't meant much for our winters or being in an overall cool regime regionally. I apologize if that is offensive or considered throwing out "bait" in some way. I know a lot of people here don't like me and thus will automatically take a defensive posture, but what I'm saying isn't really wrong.

I just happen to think this regime is good.  We have gotten a number of legit cold shots in recent weeks, and a couple more are coming.  Even the Seattle NWS commented on the cold low at SEA the other day.

The problem is we can have above normal daytime temps even with cold 850s this time of year.  That might be why you aren't as satisfied.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I definitely agree with you that the pattern showing up on some models later next week would be impressive if verified.

When you throw it in the hopper with last Sunday's very impressive cold front, and this coming Sunday's little thing that is progged to over achieve on chilly temps you get an interesting picture emerging.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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46.3 average for the first two days of April.  A chilly start.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Yes Jesse, Florence area. 

732CAD10-725D-4FA8-BD13-B84D57466D09.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes Jesse, Florence area. 

732CAD10-725D-4FA8-BD13-B84D57466D09.jpeg

Fun fact:

My son threw up in the bathroom of the Florence McDonalds.  I think it was cloudy, but I don’t think that’s why he threw up.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Fun fact:

My son threw up in the bathroom of the Florence McDonalds.  I think it was cloudy, but I don’t think that’s why he threw up.

🤢🤮🤦‍♂️

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On 4/1/2021 at 8:31 AM, snow_wizard said:

I just can't believe how dry it's been down there.  Up here we haven't gotten close to being too dry.  There is still reasonable hope this will be a cool summer though.

I ended up with a -1.3 on the temps and -2.37 on precip.

Not only have portions of Oregon been dry, but the entire state of CA has been bone dry this winter thanks to almost every storm being an "inside slider".

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I just happen to think this regime is good.  We have gotten a number of legit cold shots in recent weeks, and a couple more are coming.  Even the Seattle NWS commented on the cold low at SEA the other day.

The problem is we can have above normal daytime temps even with cold 850s this time of year.  That might be why you aren't as satisfied.

Believe it or not I really do try to be objective with this stuff, and there are some details with this pattern that helps me understand what you like so much about it. Like the way it abruptly cleared out and was down near freezing after raining heavily just 16 hours before with last Sunday's front. Don't get me wrong at all, it's been a lovely spring so far in many ways. That said, we have seen more impressive stand alone airmasses in March than we ever did this year the last four straight years.

Also, you do have a tendency to get yourself worked up about certain patterns with a belief of what they mean for the future and for the overall regime we are in, and have been burnt many times. I think you yourself would readily admit that. But then again there is nothing wrong with liking the current pattern at face value, of course. I will try not to rain on your parade if that's what I'm doing.

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17 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Believe it or not I really do try to be objective with this stuff, and there are some details with this pattern that helps me understand what you like so much about it. Like the way it abruptly cleared out and was down near freezing after raining heavily just 16 hours before with last Sunday's front. Don't get me wrong at all, it's been a lovely spring so far in many ways. That said, we have seen more impressive stand alone airmasses in March than we ever did this year the last four straight years.

Also, you do have a tendency to get yourself worked up about certain patterns with a belief of what they mean for the future and for the overall regime we are in, and have been burnt many times. I think you yourself would readily admit that. But then again there is nothing wrong with liking the current pattern at face value, of course. I will try not to rain on your parade if that's what I'm doing.

At least it’s been cool/dry and not warm/dry. Helps slow evaporation rate across the biosphere.

And there’s a chance for a wetter pattern in May this year (after the warm spell).

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40 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Fun fact:

My son threw up in the bathroom of the Florence McDonalds.  I think it was cloudy, but I don’t think that’s why he threw up.

My daughter threw up in our tent at Honeyman State Park.  Root cause was determined to be too much junk food. Whose fault it was for letting her eat so much D**n junk food was never fully resolved. 

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

At least it’s been cool/dry and not warm/dry. Helps slow evaporation rate across the biosphere.

And there’s a chance for a wetter pattern in May this year (after the warm spell).

The difference between a wet May and a dry May here can be a couple of well-placed showers. Doesn’t matter if SW flow is absent, unlike in March.

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56 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

The difference between a wet May and a dry May here can be a couple of well-placed showers. Doesn’t matter if SW flow is absent, unlike in March.

Not even close to accurate. That might be true for July or August in recent decades, but definitely not for May. We can still get large scale wet patterns at that point in the season, usually associated with some sort of 500mb troughing centered to our west and/or south.

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

I've only experienced dry regional Mays since I started really following the weather just 3-4 years ago, and it almost seems like difference between a wet May and a dry May locally can be a couple of well-placed showers. During wetter years, does it matter if SW flow is absent, like in March?

There, I fixed it. ;)

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The GFS is cold for next weekend.  When the cold front hits the temps drop from low 50s at 18z to upper 30s by 0z.  Nights drop to freezing.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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57 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s been dry almost everywhere.

 

No doubt something is going on this year.  Hopefully a full regime shift.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The GFS surface obs spit out some really impressive below normal temps during week 2.  Then of course we have the Sunday / Sunday night appetizer before that.  This might be what Jesse has been needing to see.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Not even close to accurate. That might be true for July or August in recent decades, but definitely not for May. We can still get large scale wet patterns at that point in the season, usually associated with some sort of 500mb troughing centered to our west and/or south.

No doubt May can sometimes be pretty active.  This year might be a good candidate if we keep seeing these cold outbreaks.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS surface obs spit out some really impressive below normal temps during week 2.  Then of course we have the Sunday / Sunday night appetizer before that.  This might be what Jesse has been needing to see.

I responded to your post earlier but you rarely seem to see those. I can appreciate what you have liked about the pattern lately. It's been a little dull for me but each to their own. I think I am holding this spring more to the standard 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 etc.

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14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt something is going on this year.  Hopefully a full regime shift.

Dry CONUS springs seldom precede cool summers, nationally.

I don’t like it.

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00z GFS has completely moved away from that ridiculous cutoff ULL pattern for next weekend and beyond. Tries to go there again in the clown range, but I suspect it’s the same error.

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