Jump to content
The Weather Forums

April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

For everywhere wondering/speculating about where I have been, I am very flattered We have been on a road trip to Grand Teton and Yellowstone this week. Took a nice week off before starting a new

Getting married tomorrow so that’s why I’ve not been around a ton of late. Looks like we are about 68F out there and are ready for some much-needed rainfall overnight.

Well I haven't been around in a while. Been a little, erm, preoccupied. Hope everyone's enjoying the sunshine and warmth lately! I'll be in Arizona for the weekend, and hopeful I don't melt!

Posted Images

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

13 years ago right now it was graupeling heavily.

I had 4” of snow! And went on the first date with my now wife the next day! 

  • Like 2
  • Sick 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

5th straight 70+ degree day at SEA. If tomorrow hits 70, it'll be a new all-time April record for Seattle dating back to the 1800's

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
  • scream 1

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, Phil said:

18z GFS looks stormy out there.

Here is the 10-day loop... not too bad.   Some much needed rain... but its not constant rain and that can certainly happen at this time of the year in my area. 

gfs-deterministic-nw-precip_3hr_inch-1618855200-1618866000-1619719200-10.gif

  • Rain 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

21° F with light snow and blowing snow in Cheyenne, Wyoming right now. 

What is blowing snow like? I've never experienced that or being outside during an Arctic front.

  • Sad 1
  • Weenie 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

Link to post
Share on other sites

SEA ended up with +10 on the day... so +9, +13, +14, +14, and +10 over the last 5 days.   

  • Downvote 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

What is blowing snow like? I've never experienced that or being outside during an Arctic front.

I’ve skied in it before. It’s pretty fun. If the snow is very dry/powdery then strong winds (Wyoming) can easily cause the snow to blow off the ground and limit visibility. 

Doesn’t even have to be snowing to have blowing snow. Sometimes on the Plains you just get really strong wind with powder already on the ground and can still get very low visibility.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the 10-day loop... not too bad.   Some much needed rain... but its not constant rain and that can certainly happen at this time of the year in my area. 

gfs-deterministic-nw-precip_3hr_inch-1618855200-1618866000-1619719200-10.gif

Looks like fun. At least it’s better than the current weather there.

20719702-9CC2-4589-B134-B9290D289381.gif

Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

What is blowing snow like? I've never experienced that or being outside during an Arctic front.

It’s fun. When I was a kid during nor’easters I’d try to stand in the middle of those snow devils that form near the corners of houses/buildings.

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Looks like fun. At least it’s better than the current weather there.

20719702-9CC2-4589-B134-B9290D289381.gif

Anything after day 10 on the 18Z GFS is truly meaningless.   Even after day 7 many times.    The next run could show a huge ridge at 324 hours.   What is coming into sight is a change to a wetter pattern... but the devil is in the details.   Sure hoping nature does not decide to just pound western WA at the expense of OR and CA.   Because that is how it frequently ends up regardless of what the models show a week out.   

 

  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

5th straight 70+ degree day at SEA. If tomorrow hits 70, it'll be a new all-time April record for Seattle dating back to the 1800's

This kind of anomalous April weather fifty years ago would have been met with awe (and probably drool).

Today, it just feels inevitable, like "oh yeah, that makes sense."

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Phil said:

At least it’s better than the current weather there.

Side note... lots of people have been loving the current weather.   Its been pretty spectacular to have a run of really warm weather in April and watch the landscape completely transform in a couple days.    And as Matt pointed... this was our first ridgy pattern in months.   

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Anything after day 10 on the 18Z GFS is truly meaningless.   Even after day 7 many times.    The next run could show a huge ridge at 324 hours.   What is coming into sight is a change to a wetter pattern... but the devil is in the details.   Sure hoping nature does not decide to just pound western WA at the expense of OR and CA.   Because that is how it frequently ends up regardless of what the models show a week out.   

 

Hopefully it’ll pound all of you. Because in reality the entire west coast is parched.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Phil said:

Hopefully it’ll pound all of you. Because the entire west coast is parched.

No... western WA is doing just fine.    You can hope for whatever you want... but the fact is that when western WA is getting hit hard then its usually at the expense of Oregon and CA.    Particularly at this time of year.   

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Side note... lots of people have been loving the current weather.   Its been pretty spectacular to have a run of really warm weather in April and watch the landscape completely transform in a couple days.    And as Matt pointed... this was our first ridgy pattern in months.   

Lol I meant better for rainfall.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

No... western WA is doing just fine.    You can hope for whatever you want... but the fact is that when western WA is getting hit hard then its usually at the expense of Oregon and CA.    Particularly at this time of year.   

Soil moisture content is well below average in W-WA too.

IE: Parched.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Soil moisture content is well below average in W-WA too.

IE: Parched.

Its fine here... and it will rain plenty.  

It would be really nice if we could get a storm train going through southern OR and northern CA.   Its probably too late now for SoCal.   And a storm track through that area usually means western WA is drier.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its fine here... and it will rain plenty.  

It would be really nice if we could get a storm train going through southern OR and northern CA.   Its probably too late now for SoCal.   And a storm track through that area usually means western WA is drier.

Still drier than average. Which after last fire season isn’t exactly good news. But yes, CA needs it more.

B6F26991-C5E7-429B-B581-43B50DF475A3.gif

  • Storm 1
  • Sick 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

What is blowing snow like? I've never experienced that or being outside during an Arctic front.

Haven’t seen a bolt of lightning in 87 years either. :(

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Kayla said:

You just missed this latest front. 28 degrees and snowing right now at 3pm here. Cold air is still really holding on this Spring.

That is so awesome. I oughta book a flight to Cheyenne and rent out an air B&B one of these days for when the next generational blizzard hits.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Phil said:

All in all, the entire western half of the country needs as much rain as it can get.

I agree... except as I have mentioned... when western WA is getting pounded then it usually means the rest of the West is not.   That is generally true overall but even more so at this time of year.    Western WA is doing just fine... but something tells me that western WA is going to be the most anomalously wet region in the West over the next 2 weeks.   And that would be unfortunate.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Side note... lots of people have been loving the current weather.   Its been pretty spectacular to have a run of really warm weather in April and watch the landscape completely transform in a couple days.    And as Matt pointed... this was our first ridgy pattern in months.   

It’s been amazing!!! 
Had a high of 71

Currently 66. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I agree... except as I have mentioned... when western WA is getting pounded then it usually means the rest of the West is not.   That is generally true overall but even more so at this time of year.    Western WA is doing just fine... but something tells me that western WA is going to be the most anomalously wet region in the West over the next 2 weeks.   And that would be unfortunate.

Still better than the current pattern, though.

  • Angry 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Phil said:

All in all, the entire western half of the country needs as much rain as it can get.

WA is a major water hog. A ONE AND A TWO AND A THREE! WATER HOG! WATER HOG!  (The nation points it's fingers at WA) Will Biden order a water shut off notice for the state of WA? Perhaps a 'fairness' doctrine is needed.

  • Popcorn 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

That is so awesome. I oughta book a flight to Cheyenne and rent out an air B&B one of these days for when the next generational blizzard hits.

You'd think more people would go to Cheyenne just to experience weather patterns they can't get at home!

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

73/42 sunset with a twist currently underway

BB8ED5A8-1763-4D98-8724-8F8F616434A5.png

Do you have a Nest Smoke Alarm system  as in one of these? Google Nest Protect - Smoke Alarm - Smoke Detector and Carbon Monoxide Detector - Battery Operated, White - S3000BWES - - Amazon.com

Your camera says Nest on it so I'm curious if you have the full expensive protection system and a fire panel setup....

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Link said:

Do you have a Nest Smoke Alarm system  as in one of these? Google Nest Protect - Smoke Alarm - Smoke Detector and Carbon Monoxide Detector - Battery Operated, White - S3000BWES - - Amazon.com

Your camera says Nest on it so I'm curious if you have the full expensive protection system and a fire panel setup....

Negative....just the cameras for my weather addiction.  I’ve got the normal battery first alert alarms scattered throughout the house that go off when I cook 

 

  • Excited 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Had this pop up on my news feed the other day.....looks kinda ugly.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/drought-western-united-states-modern-history/?intcid=CNM-00-10abd1h

I got a letter from my insurance a few weeks ago that said that wildfire coverage is now automatically included in my homeowners policy, and  offered to send out a consultant at no charge to do an assessment of my property.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Had this pop up on my news feed the other day.....looks kinda ugly.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/drought-western-united-states-modern-history/?intcid=CNM-00-10abd1h

I got a letter from my insurance a few weeks ago that said that wildfire coverage is now automatically included in my homeowners policy, and  offered to send out a consultant at no charge to do an assessment of my property.

 

Be careful with having them come out to your property. Everyone in the Sierra foothills is getting dropped and then 3rd party fire insurance is anywhere from $6k to $25k a year. They only come out for assessments when they cant get a good idea of your area from satellite photos.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is an image from that article... sure hope nature keeps focusing all the precip in the West on western WA.  🤔

drought.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

Will be interesting to see if we can hit 70 again would also be a record here. What a stretch of warmth for this time of year. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02”

Warmest high temp-84

Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Had this pop up on my news feed the other day.....looks kinda ugly.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/drought-western-united-states-modern-history/?intcid=CNM-00-10abd1h

I got a letter from my insurance a few weeks ago that said that wildfire coverage is now automatically included in my homeowners policy, and  offered to send out a consultant at no charge to do an assessment of my property.

 

If they're already automatically adding it to your coverage it seems the consultant could only hurt you. Unless they automatically added it at a really high rate.

  • Like 2

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is another link to a study about megadrought in the West...

https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2020/04/16/climate-driven-megadrought-emerging-western-u-s/

It appears that the last 20 years have been similar to the megadrought from 1575-1603.    It was driven by nature back then but we might be helping it along now.     I guess if people are really concerned about the West as a whole... they might not cheer on La Ninas like they are the greatest thing in the world.   ;)

Nature drove the ancient droughts, and still plays a strong role today. A study last year led by Lamont’s Nathan Steiger showed that among other things, unusually cool periodic conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean (commonly called La Niña) during the previous megadroughts pushed storm tracks further north, and starved the region of precipitation.

 

Also interesting note about population booming over the last 100 years...

Tucked into the researchers’ data: the 20th century was the wettest century in the entire 1200-year record. It was during that time that population boomed, and that has continued. “The 20th century gave us an overly optimistic view of how much water is potentially available,” said Cook. “It goes to show that studies like this are not just about ancient history. They’re about problems that are already here.”

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Phil said:

CMC is a firehose.

At long last, the biosphere gets its stimulus check.

3215A398-13B9-4CFC-8E88-67DD17BD6A81.png

Except it's the Canadian model and likely way overstated. 

Regardless... it appears western WA is the focus which is the norm.

  • Sad 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

A Nino might really help the situation down south... too bad that is not in the cards for the next decade at least.  👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is another link to a study about megadrought in the West...

https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2020/04/16/climate-driven-megadrought-emerging-western-u-s/

It appears that the last 20 years have been similar to the megadrought from 1575-1603.    It was driven by nature back then but we might be helping it along now.     I guess if people are really concerned about the West as a whole... they might not cheer on La Ninas like they are the greatest thing in the world.   ;)

Nature drove the ancient droughts, and still plays a strong role today. A study last year led by Lamont’s Nathan Steiger showed that among other things, unusually cool periodic conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean (commonly called La Niña) during the previous megadroughts pushed storm tracks further north, and starved the region of precipitation.

 

Also interesting note about population booming over the last 100 years...

Tucked into the researchers’ data: the 20th century was the wettest century in the entire 1200-year record. It was during that time that population boomed, and that has continued. “The 20th century gave us an overly optimistic view of how much water is potentially available,” said Cook. “It goes to show that studies like this are not just about ancient history. They’re about problems that are already here.”

There are numerous studies on Holocene era North American mega-droughts. Hard to say we’re definitively “helping along” the current drought, given the ongoing drought is of much lower amplitude than the Medieval mega-droughts (which at peak affected a huge portion of the North American continent..basically all of modern day USA from coast to coast, and the southwestern half of Canada). 

Also that La Niña inference is silly. What drove those droughts was an expansion of the West-Pacific Warm Pool/North Pacific Hadley Cells, the former of which can be associated with a stronger Walker Cell/Niña pattern in the tropics, but actually teleconnects to +NAM/+TNH type pattern which distinctly opposes the -ENSO climo WT response over North America.

In reality, ENSO is a short term phenomenon, and Mega-Droughts/Warm Pool/z-cell vacillation cycles are longer term. It actually had little to with ENSO, and had more to do with long term harmonics. La Niña events during the LIA didn’t behave like La Niñas in the MWP.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Except it's the Canadian model and likely way overstated. 

Regardless... it appears western WA is the focus which is the norm.

The Canadian isn’t any worse than the GFS, bro.

  • Popcorn 1
  • Windy 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Phil said:

There are numerous studies on Holocene era North American mega-droughts. Hard to say we’re definitively “helping along” the current drought, given the ongoing drought is of much lower amplitude than the Medieval mega-droughts (which at peak affected a huge portion of the North American continent..basically the entire of modern day USA and the SW half of Canada). 

Also that La Niña inference is silly. What drove those droughts was an expansion of the West-Pacific Warm Pool/North Pacific Hadley Cells, the former of which can be associated with a stronger Walker Cell/Niña pattern in the tropics, but actually teleconnects to +NAM/+TNH type pattern which distinctly opposes the -ENSO climo WT response over North America.

In reality, ENSO is a short term phenomenon, and Mega-Droughts/Warm Pool/z-cell vacillation cycles are longer term. It actually had little to with ENSO, and had more to do with long term harmonics. La Niña events during the LIA didn’t behave like La Niñas in the MWP.

And yet... a Nino would probably be a good thing for SW US.   A Nina sure did not help the situation.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Chris unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...